The 2024 “My Guys” Episode! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/16

I love that he lines up all over the field like a CD lamb can. I love that he crushes every kind of defense man in zone. In fact, his numbers are better than Marvin Harrison against both of those. However, the question mark in everyone's mind around Malik neighbors is going to be draft price and the time that he's spending in New York. And I want to tell you why. I mean, there's a chicken or egg situation. We talked about Daniel Jones and the numbers he's put up in the passing game. He's also had no true alpha. which is a big, big problem. There are 200 vacated targets on the already struggling Giants passing offense. And here arrives Malik Neighbors. You look at the ultimate draft kit and you look at the target share expectation for Malik Neighbors, okay? I got them at 25%. You guys have them at 27 and 28% of the team's targets according to the UDK. Sounds about right. Over the last decade, 12 rookie wide receivers have hit a 23% target share.

Okay. So 23%, which I cannot imagine a healthy Malik neighbors on the field under 23%. Me either. All 12 of them were double digit fantasy points. Okay, so you talk about some security. Per game. Double digit fantasy points per game. Yeah, because it's not impressive at all if they did that on a season. If you finish the season with double digits, that would be really bad. Right. No, that would be a disaster. Yeah. No, per game. Okay, good. They're average. Fantasy points per game was 13.2. So if you're over 23% target share, you average 13.2 fantasy points per game. For context, Jamar Chase was at 13.3 last year. Okay. So when you get a target share as a rookie, it is exceptionally valuable. But then you say, well, the giants, man, I don't, I don't even want to watch them. And they were kind of a surprise two years ago. Last year was trouble. Here's something exciting about those 12 wide receivers I talked about, the historical evidence. Okay. 75%.

were on teams that did not make the playoffs. 75% of those. They were on third and fourth place teams in their division. Same with neighbors. Neighbors is going to be in that boat. And rookie wide receivers and why making him a my guy is so exciting is that they are often league winners down the stretch. Of those 12 wide receivers, 75% of them increased their fantasy points per game over the final five weeks of the year because they get better. They become more integrated into the offense. And we're talking absolute stud territory. I am in on the league neighbors. I think you have a shot at a true alpha. If you're drafting on ESPN, the value right now is even greater. He's a mid to late fifth round selection. I like that. Being drafted at floor levels like wide receiver 24 range. Jason just said A. Chan and the possibility of where he'll go in next year's draft.

Malik Neighbors, I think, could be a first round draft selection next year that you're getting in the late fourth, late fifth, depending on your platform, that you're taking behind some guys like Josh Jacobs and, you know, to have more question marks around volatility and explosive capability. Malik Neighbors, the player, tremendous confidence, the evidence of a rookie wide receiver drafted in that range. It's very, very positive when they get a target share. Could he be disrupted by an injury? That's always the case. My guys last year. We had three kind of home runs, and then we had two that were on their way. Mark Andrews got hurt. It's going to happen. It is walking the land, you know, going through the minefield, trying to get a my guy all the way to the end of the season sometimes. But if he stays healthy and he's on the field, this offense cannot function without this gentleman. So Malik neighbors.

I think the possibility of a really, really impactful season is there, and I'm willing to take him on all platforms and especially ESPN. What I hate about Malik neighbors and fantasy football right now, because I've been of, I think of the table, I've been the most concerned about his ADP. But hopefully what's not coming through is I have no concern about his talent. I think that he is going to be an elite player as just the... The risk of the ADP to me has been a point of like, oh, man, I don't know. The second half is, the second half of the season is 100% true. We see that all the time. So if he gets off to a slow start, just hold on. And one other thing I want to throw in, because I was looking at the history of rookies over the last 10 years drafted inside that top 10 range. For the NFL draft? In the NFL draft. And it's like,

They don't generally, like either they completely unmitigated bus, which is of small percentage, very small, like Corey Davis as a rookie. Or they really kind of are going to outperform that ADP. So you're kind of taking him knowing that he's not going to end up where he's being drafted. That's very unlikely. There's only bit. He's either not good or he's great. The only two that I could find that were kind of neutral to ADP, we're like. Like, Devante Smith was drafted at 36, ended at 29. Like, that wasn't a crazy, impressive rookie season. Um, Amari Cooper was at 20, finished at 22. Like, there were a couple guys in that category. I wonder what Corey Davis did. Corey Davis was ADP of 46. So you didn't spend it on it. Okay. He was a, he was a 10th round pick. He ended up as 93rd best wide receiver. So that was a disaster. But, you know, he was not highly drafted. I mean, Drake London.

was one, but he's a ninth round pick. So when you're drafted anywhere in this range, you don't really finish there. You end up, you know, with a much higher finish. Jamar Chase was the wide receiver 26 off the board. He ended as the wide receiver 5. Wada was 41, ended at 16. Evans was 38, ended at 12. So I think that that's the perfect kind of player you want to add to the roster where you're looking at that high upside. He is, regardless of if you're in on the ADP or you're out on the ADP, Drafting Malik Neighbors is drafting to win your championship. Fair. Yeah, he's a talented, fun, explosive rookie. And those tend to work out in the NFL. All right. My second, my guy, I'm here. This is the one that I think people had the hardest time guessing.

I might have. I don't know what I say. Where did you go? We've done. I wasn't questioning your current location. This is like episode 1600 and something. You know I have no idea what comes out of my mouth at all times. So shame on you. Sorry. That's on me. Am I here? Are any of us here? Let's kick it off with my second my guy, a running back. Isaiah Pacheco. Isaiah Pacheco. Pachecks a bunch of boxes for me. Oh, I thought you were going to say, Pachick, this out. They're both good Swiss. I was happy. Yeah, nice. Nice. There are a couple of boxes I love for, Pachekek those boxes. Look, if you're too afraid to draft Devon A. Chan, if you are the coward. Oh, okay. Then Pacheco is a great option because I think he is being drafted at his floor. There are certain things that work in the NFL for fantasy. One is being on a great offense.

Two is being a good pass catcher as a running back. Pachack. Pachek. Thank you. This is great. Three, it's when you are 215 plus pounds and run sub four, four, the hit rate on that is outstanding. Pachek. Pachek. I want to read to you the, I've talked a lot about how I think Kansas City Chiefs as a whole right now. are undervalued in ADP for what I think they're going to do in 2024. Here are the total points scored by the Kansas City Chiefs over the last five years. 451, 473, 480, 496, 371. Now, obviously, their defense was a little better, but that is an outlier. That is totally different than what you expect from the Kansas City Chiefs. And if I had to bet whether they're going to be in the 400s or the 300s,

I think that is an unbelievably easy bet that I would push my chips all in on. So you've got a big bodied pass catching back for a great offense with Mahomes who they are good at getting running backs receiving touchdowns. I want to remind you, Kareem Hunt, when he was in his second year as a running back one for the chiefs, he's a great pass catcher. How many receptions do you guys think he had? in that season. We're going way back. Way back. I know. This is rookie season? Second year. I'll go 50, 40 something. 50, 40, 23. 23. Yep. And he had seven receiving touchdowns on that because Andy Reed is so good at designing stuff like that from the shotgun. 70% of Pacheco's runs were from the shotgun. Six of his seven touchdowns were from the shotgun. This is just a clever offense and he's a good back. And the workload is there.

He had 18.1 opportunities last year at 4.6 yards of carry. So it wasn't just workload. It was efficiency. That's right. Tear that turf up. Pacheck. He was seventh among all running back in red zone touches. And he was efficient. All running backs. All of them. All running back one. Inside the 10 yard line, he only had 10 carries inside the 10, but he turned that into five touchdowns. So that's a number that could go up. And if you look at what this team has done, transactionally, and said verbally, it is that Isaiah Pacheco is the dude. Over the playoffs, where it mattered the most and they won a Super Bowl, in the wildcard round, he had 76% of the Kansas City running back opportunities. Divisional round, 84%. AFC Championship, 90% and in the Super Bowl, 89% including six targets.

also just a little weird nugget. He's the only running back in NFL history to start and win a Super Bowl in his first two seasons. So he's just a winner. You know, my guys. You know what? That's a great stat. That's crazy just because, man, you ended up in the right place, buddy. Yeah. I mean, what an amazing way to start. Yeah. So they committed to him down the stretch. And then what happened in the off season? They let 32-year-old Jerich McKinnon walk. They replaced him with no one but an undrafted free agent, Deneric Prince. It's a fun little storyline, but that's not a worry. He resigned. He's not a king. No way. He's a prince. Speaking of a king, last year, Isaiah Pacheco missed a few games. On a per game basis, he scored 13.7 fantasy points per game. That's identical to what Derek Henry, King Henry, scored last year as the running back eight. He's being drafted behind that this year. Where's he going?

Right now he's the running back 11. He's in the third round. Yeah, I see 12. Yeah, it depends on platform 11, 12, 13. But that is his floor, 11, 12, 13. He is a workhorseback that's going to catch the ball. I mentioned this quote earlier, but I want to read it verbatim from Andy Reed because he was asked. From myself. He was, he was asked who's going to fill in the third down roll that's been vacated by Jerich McKinnon. He said, Pacheco is ready to handle all of that. He's good with the protections. He's good with the technique and the fundamentals. He can run all the routes. He's got great hands. And he does. He had 49 targets last year. He turned it into 44 receptions. He's a solid player. He's explosive. He's got a body that can withstand a big workload. And what would a year three? That would be the fulfillment of a six-year weight in fantasy football from the last time that Cream Hunt was a Kansas City chief.

Yeah. Because we've been waiting six years to put somebody else in those shoes. And I'm calling it. This is going to be the year where he is a running back one. All right. Another quick break. And back with the rest of the my guys. Well, it's your turn, Mike. Sometimes players are expected to do one thing. And then they don't come through on that fulfillment. And then the following year, everyone forgets how good a player actually is. Jalen Waddle. Jalen Waddle of the Miami Dolphins were entering year four. And because of last year, I think there is a little bit of fatigue. Also, look, look, it's the elephant in the room. He is the wide receiver too behind Tyree Kill. He is not Tyree Kill. But you know what? Jalen Waddle is really, really good. Remember this past year? All the hullabaloo.

about how sensational the rookie year of Pooka Nakua was, and there's, like, that last week, Puka broke the reception record for a rookie wide receiver. You know whose record he broke? Jalen freaking Waddle. Like, the guy, the guy just broke the record a couple years ago. In year two, he leads the NFL in yards per reception, and he finishes as the wide receiver seven. with Tyreek Hill on his team. Year three wasn't what we had hoped for, and yet his third straight year with a thousand yards season. He finished as the wide receiver 34. He only played in 14 games. And yet, in points per game, he was right there with Chris Olave with only four touchdowns. Talking about Jalen Waddle. It felt disappointing. But then you can look behind the scenes at the numbers because, again, while missing games,

for Jalen Wattle. He also had tons of games where he would be leaving in and out because he would just, he had these nagging injuries that his body just could not seem to recover from. It happens. But comparison numbers from 2022 when he was the wide receiver 7 to last year, 2003, his catch rate went up five points. He was really close in yards per game. His targets per route run went up last year. His yards per route run went up. The big thing was the touchdowns. The touchdowns just did, they didn't happen to come for Jalen Waddle this past year. But that can absolutely bounce back when you have a quarterback who leads the league in passing yardage. Jalen Waddle is made for the NFL offense of 2004. He absolutely destroys zone. While we're talking about concerns of, well, these quarterbacks, they can't seem to overcome the two shell. You know, they're playing zone. They're stopping these guys.

Jaylon Waddle destroys Zone. His 3.09 yards per route run against Zone ranks fifth best amongst all wide receivers over the last five years. Two of those are, in fact, Tyreek kill. And it's the question of can these guys coexist. Well, Tyreek certainly can. He's been a top 10 in half of the games that he's played with Waddle, which is 16 games. Waddle was a top 12 in five of those games. Again, I'm not saying he's Tyree Kill, but I'm saying that people forget how great Jalen Waddle is. Jay, you brought up the speed of Devon H in. Jalen Wattel is just right behind him at 4-3-7. It's unbelievably unfair to Jalen Watt. That one of the fastest men on the planet is the third fastest guy in his team. Fourth fastest by 40 times. Who is that Jal? Moster. Oh, Moster. Oh, my gosh. These Dolphins. And Jailen rides at a 4-38, that's slow guy.

Looking over the first three years of Jalen Waddle's career in a full PPR, he averaged more fantasy points per game in his first three years than Calvin Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Cooper Cup. Wait, average more what? Fantasy points per game. That's what I thought you might have said, but that didn't make sense with those names. I totally understand. It is a made-up step. Wait, say that again, genuine. In a full PPR. And over the first three years, he's averaged more points per game than Calvin Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, and Cooper Cup. And in fact, in that time span, he ever the same as AJ Brown. This is where Jalen Waddle is. He was drafted too high last year. Quite possibly. I think that that really was true. I mean, I think you were drafting him last year. And so the only possible outcome last year for Jalen Waddle was to be burned by him. That's what? He was 80. His ADP was like, what, seven? Wide receiver nine. A nine. I mean, that was.

It was just expensive. Yes. And that prices come down because people were disappointed relative to the price. Yes. And so it's a little bit of the post-hyped sleeper storyline. A little bit. He's going as the wide receiver 17 over on the sleeper platform. On average across platforms, wide receiver 19. Yes. I mean, we've brought up the platform comparison tool because over on ESPN, Andy, I think you mentioned, was it Calvin Ridley's was much lower? Much lower. Jalen Waddle. A fifth round pick right now in ESP. By the way, that's ridiculous. Puka cheated. I mean, Puka had one more reception than Waddle and one extra game than Waddle had. Oh, that's not fair. And, and not only that. Well, to be fair, but he they got him the record and I think they pulled him right out. Yeah, they pulled him right out. But it is true that he wouldn't. Yeah, but you went for a record. Waddle, you know. The point being, all they're like, Puka.

Most receptions for a rookie in history. Jalen Waddle had that record. Yes. That's what he can do. You've been in on him all off season. Yeah, but let me ask you this. Who'd you rather have Jalen Wall or Zidi Lant? I hate you. Okay, you can move on now, Andy. What do we do? What do we just talk about on the tips and tricks? Get over it. What was the number one rule? Get over it. It wasn't called get over. It was called start fresh. Okay. All right. Are you ready to move forward? Yeah, I got Waddle. Who clicked the button on that trade, Jason? Did Mike click the button? Did I click the button? I thought you were telling me to move on because I clicked to reject until you guys. It's part of moving on. All right. Accountability. All right. My third, my guy, before I get into it, I'm going to give you three players that were finalists. We have never done this before. Three players that are like, they were right on the edge for me. Cooper Cup got a little bit weary when you combine Stafford's

Like everything hinges on Stafford. You know, this is the like the Jenga. You know what I mean? Like you pull that one block out. Structural integrity. And it all comes down. But Cooper Cup, I think, is a value. DJ Moore. I'm just going to say the name. He was a finalist. And then the most left field one was Brock Bowers. I really believe that he may be utilized in a wide receiver just as a wide receiver so often that you'll be very happy with the pick. But my third and final my guy has been a journey, a long journey with this guy. But I think he's the seal of your draft. Tank Bigsby. What? Andy, let's tell us why. How did this work? It is not. The long con. Oh, my gosh. So why is he the best value in the draft? You son of a gun. This is not, I can't believe this works. Yes. It is not.

Tank Bigsby. Wait a minute, Andy. No. Wait a minute, Andy. I have a golden ticket that says I could change your opinion here. So me. You cannot pick my my guy. All right. Oh, you sons of guys. The button said something different. Yes. Eat it. Oh, all right. Do you have a real button for me? Thank you. Jaden Daniels. Hi-five. Oh, I can't believe that worked. Shaded Daniels. Just above Tank Biggsby, guys. Jaden Daniels is my third my guy. Wow, you pulled that off so perfectly. I have, because we are in Phoenix in Arizona, the Jaden Daniels story for me, it's a long, it's a long story. He was a starting quarterback for Arizona State for many years before he transferred. I watched him play football. He was always, you know, he's a great quarterback for Arizona State relative to what we've had out here.

But at no point during that journey at ASU did I say this is going to be a future top five NFL draft pick that's going to change the game. You said very opposite things. Yeah, well, I mean, the point was really that I thought he was kind of a mid guy, just a mid quarterback. Good for ASU, probably not an NFL player. He transfers to LSU and he has a senior season, a Heisman season. That was. parallel to what Joe Burrow did in a lot of ways. Joe Burrow was insane. He was 60 touchdowns, 60 interceptions, or 60 touchdowns, six interceptions. That's unbelievable. When I looked it up again, I was like, what? That's crazy. That's a misty type. Yeah, that's someone put that in wrong. Jane Daniels went 40 and four touchdown to interception ratio at LSU. And the storyline with him going into this draft, it really is about, it's about Jane Daniels, the player and some of the things that make him special.

But it's also about fantasy scoring and some of the things that make that special if you run the football. And I want to focus in on an interesting number with Jaden Daniels, who's going in the 10th round, by the way. The price on Jaden Daniels right now is the price on Anthony Richardson last year as a rookie. The price on Anthony Richardson right now with two games played in his career is five rounds higher. I will never draft Anthony Richardson. I'm not going to do it. Jane Daniels is your discount, Anthony Richardson, this year. And in college, he was 43% of his team's rushing yardage. That is the third highest ever for a first round running back. But here's what's really interesting. He had the highest scramble rate of a college quarterback in their final season over the last decade. Scrambles are what we call undesigned runs. You're not doing a design quarterback run. And in fact, in fantasy, wildly enough, last year, a scramble?

was worth two and a half times the fantasy points of a designed quarterback run. The commanders gave up 65 sacks. That was the highest in the league. Now, he has to stay healthy. Yeah, what was his ragdoll percentage? His ragdoll was 100%. Oh, man. He's one of the first ragdoll every play. He needs to attach the helmet to the shoulder pads to make sure that it stays on. The head, his head needs to be attached. The commanders gave up a lot of pressure. And a scramble run by a scrambler is worth double a designed run, which we expect design runs to be part of the Anthony Richardson experienced five rounds earlier. He averaged, you know, according to us, our average projection for him is 109 rushing attempts. That puts him six at the quarterback position. And I think looking at the college stats,

We all could project higher. It's just kind of irresponsible to do. Right. But Jaden Daniels at the value, he's got Cliff Kingsbury, it's been brought up before, who's had great success. Kyler was the quarterback seven with Cliff Kingsbury. As a rookie. As a rookie. And that was with 20 passing touchdowns. This is not my guy because Jane Daniels is going to break the NFL and throw 35 touchdowns as a rookie. This is, you can throw 20 and you can scramble. And you can end up the quarterback 7 while you're being drafted as the quarterback 15. I also want to point out, you know, Drake May scrambles, right? There isn't a wide receiver in that offense right now today that you can look at and say that is in alpha. That's your Malik neighbors. That's your, you know, go-to wide receiver. And despite the struggles and the way fantasy players feel about him, just watch football. You have to watch football to know it.

Terry McLaren is a true number one wide receiver at the NFL level who's been dealt a thousand quarterbacks and offensive coordinators and it hasn't panned out to that season that breaks fantasy. But this is not Drake May. You have a number one in Terry McLaren no matter whether they're figuring out what their number two is. You know, they have tight ends that can play football. They have Austin Echler out of the backfield that can help you out. Fantasy community we've talked about. They've gotten smarter and smarter and smarter about drafting these quarterbacks and finding them late in drafts. They are blind and missing right now on Jaden Daniels. I know you guys agree. 100%. Here's our pick in the mock draft yesterday. What a great pick. It really was. Not to toot your own horn. No, no, I would never. But this is the only guy round nine or later that has the rushing upside. And to me, this is the player. I would be actively going into my draft saying,

I'm going to build an amazing roster and then I'm going to take Jayden Daniels. Even if I take them in the ninth, even if I want to make sure I get that guy. Yeah, for sure. I agree with you. I mean, it's funny because we've talked about a lot of this offseason, you know, how you want those mobile quarterbacks. You want the ones that are dual threat. They're not just runners, but they can pass well. And so we've got Kyler and Jayden Daniels as my guys. And those are my two primary targets. You know, if I don't, if I don't end up with the Jalen Hertz or Josh Allen, then those are the two guys I want on my team. You guys, Jason, you told me to share some of my finalists before I revealed Jaden Daniels. Yeah. I now believe you wanted me to do that to set up your tank Bigsby drop. Oh, I didn't, but that's. Okay. That would be, yes, I did. All right, Jason. I am in 100% of agreement with Jane Daniels.

Voice crack. But Jane Daniels. Try whistling. And this is like, I think Kyler is the best quarterback target in fantasy football. That's not going to stop me legitimately. That will not stop me from taking Kyler and then a couple rounds later taking Jayden Daniels because the price is so cheap. That's what Richardson was for people last year. Yes. Second selection. Yeah, if Jaden Daniels is in your 10th round, if you're in the 10th round and you already have your quarterback, grab Jaden Daniels. Yeah, like the sleepers that we're looking at in the 10th round, of course, hitting on those players, if it's a wide receiver or running back, it is, it feels so, so good. But it's looking at the probability of who's actually going to hit in the 10th round at that position. It's really low for everybody. Meanwhile, Jaden Daniels has the cheat code built in and he can throw. Like this, this is not.

No, he is a, that was the point with the 40 and 4 at LSU is that Burrow came in as an established passer and Jaden Daniels can, he can sling it. Yes. All right. I guess it's time for my list of finalists, those who did not make. A lot of people thought, uh, D.K. Matcalf was going to be on there because I'm higher than ADP. I do think he's a good value. He wasn't really in consideration. He kind of, I feel like he, you and him had a relationship for about like a four weeker. I mean, I still think he's a good value, but I, you know, he's, he's just a slight.