Trending or Ending + Combine Hype

was the combo of Carson Wince and Alshan Jeffrey because you had Carson Wince throwing an outlandish rate of touchdowns, and we said, okay, that's going to regress. Even if he has a really good year, that's going to regress. Alshan Jeffrey made his hay scoring touchdowns. So if that regresses from Alshan Jeffrey, he's not a, you know, he's not usually the 100-catch, 1,300-yard type of receiver at all. He certainly doesn't seem like that right now.

So it's all about the touchdown, and I think they bring in another wide receiver this off season. I think Carson Wins does rebound. It has a good year. But the expectation for me is, yeah, wide receiver 25 is probably the highest I would draft him. I believe that Alshan is a wide receiver 2, not a wide receiver 3. So if I said trending or ending, I think this trend of finishing outside the top 20 ends this year. I think he's a top, I think he finishes right around wide receiver 17, 18.

And the thing that people don't realize, because offseason is about perspective and perception and the news and the aura around a player, look, it hasn't been positive for Carson Wins. Nick Foles, every year they rally around him. Carson Wins, injured again. News about locker room issues. But what are the facts about Carson Wins? Here's the facts. Career high-in completion percentage by a wide margin last year.

Still a great touchdown to interception ratio. Three to one last year. He had a better pass rating than his MVP season. Carson wins is the guy. Nick Foles is gone. Yeah, he's a very good quarterback. So do I think that Alshan Jeffrey has top 10 potential again? No, I don't. I think those days are long gone. But I do know that Carson Wentz and Alshan Jeffrey have a connection. And I think that that's good enough to be inside that top 20. That's where I lean.

That's fair. I mean, the logic is sound. We will just agree to disagree. I'll say this. If they cut Nelson Agilar and don't bring someone in, then he'll certainly be higher in my rankings because he'll have to be. He'll still be the most tenured. But I think that they are going to bring in someone that's an impact receiver. All right. Number three is Matt Ryan, a top five fantasy quarterback trending or ending last year. He was the QB2, Jason. The QB2. That's pretty good.

I know. I want a championship on his back. You remember that? I took that away from you. Yeah, and he's still complaining about you climbing up there. Okay. He's not a fan. He was also the number two quarterback two years ago in 2016. He was. He was. And he's been in the top ten four other years, but he did have, you know, based on the actual trend, he has bounced in and out of the top ten. His, what, four straight years? Five straight years.

In 2012, he was the number seven. Great. Top eight quarterback. Then he drops down to 15. Next year, he's back up to number seven. Then he drops to 19. Next year, he's up to number two. Next year, down to 15. This past year, up to number two again. So I think we can, yeah, it's 15. Quarterback 15, Matt Ryan. Oof. That way, well, that'd be bad. That would be bad for fantasy. All jokes aside, I believe he's much.

much closer to quarterback 15 than he is to quarterback. Really? I do. So you're an ending. I am an ending. I love the additional weapon of Calvin Ridley for him. He has always been as good as his wide receivers are. You know, some some quarterbacks make their wide receiver core better. He doesn't. The wide receiver core makes him better. But last year, I think the absence of Devonta Freeman.

just destroyed their rushing game. They had the fewest number of rushing attempts that they've had in the last five years. They had to figure it out through the air. Also, if you remember at the beginning of the season, when they were a Super Bowl contending team, and then they lost their whole defense. Like all of their superstar defensive players went down to season-ending injuries, and their defense stunk. Well, their defense is going to be a lot better this year. They're not going to need to be in shootouts the way they were last year.

I think the actual trend of the good year, bad year, good year, bad year continues, and Matt Ryan has a bad year. Well, that goes beyond the top five fantasy quarterback question. You think he actually has a down year. I think some people look at Julio, Calvin Ridley, and they think he can keep it going. Hooper. But I think that's an interesting argument. I guess I tend to lean outside the top five.

I think there'll be other guys emerging, you know, Carson Wentz or Matt Ryan, who do you want next year? Carson Wentz? Yeah, that's Riley, too. I mean, it's funny. I've got, those are my two quarterbacks in Dynasty, and dynasty, and dynasty, and dynasty, and Dinescy. And let me, uh, you shut your stupid. Totally unrelated to this. I just decided to set my line up because why not it's, you're ready to go. It's, you know, Wednesday, February 27th. Can I put Chris Warren in? Oh, you shut your stupid. Yeah, you know what? Put them in.

Put him in your starting lineup. Go ahead. Champ's not scared. Do you want to trade me Mark Andrews for Chris Warren? No, but I will talk. You're thinking about it. No, the 203 is what you need. You trade me the 203. I'll trade you Mark Andrews. You need tight in. I want the 203. But I put Carson Wentz in my starting lineup over Matt Ryan just to say, look, he's my number one. This was a statement thing? Yes. I had to send a message to Maddie Ice. Say, look, I don't believe in you this year. I think.

Carson wins is going to be fine. Step it up. I forgot you had Carson wins. That stinks. All right. Next one. Trending or ending is Robert Woods a top 12 wide receiver yet again in 2019? Look, it has been an ascension, a large one for Robert Woods. Going back to his Buffalo days when he finished outside the top 60 at the position. Then his first year in Los Angeles, he was wide receiver 31. Then last year, hello Robert Woods, wide receiver 10.

Is he a top 12 guy? No. No, he's not. That's where I weigh in. Jason? Yes, he is. Yes, he is. Yes, he is. Robert Woods is one of those perennially disrespected guys. Got off to too slow of a start for his career so you just don't believe it. Very Doug Baldwin-esque.

Right? Doug Baldwin, you saw him for five or six years. I like the comp. Yeah, that makes sense. He's just like, we know what he is. He's not a stud fantasy player. He got a lot of touchdowns. He got lucky. No, he's a great wide receiver. And Robert Woods has always passed the eye test. He is actually a great wide receiver. Now he's on one of the best offenses in the league. You look at just about any weak range last year and you go, wow, he was good in the beginning of the year.

okay, he was real solid in the middle. He was really good at the end. This wasn't like Cooper Cup goes down, and now Robert Woods is relevant. Robert Woods was great. So I'm going to say Robert Woods is a top 12 wide receiver. Now, when my draft rankings are done and I stat every single player out, I'll be surprised if he finishes, you know, because there's so many great wide receivers. I'll be surprised if he ranks in that top 12, but I view him as a wide receiver one in fantasy, certainly not a tier one guy.

but a guy where wherever, wherever he is drafted next year, I already know it's going to be too low. Well, look, the concerns, the narrative out there is going to be Cooper Cup returns. Last year, he ran 51%. This is Robert Woods ran 51% of his routes in the slot. The year before in Los Angeles, only 14% of his routes in the slot. Cooper Cup does make a difference. You also wonder about an ascending talent in Gerald Everett. Is that another?

piece of the offense that Sean McVey takes advantage of. I just think you saw the ceiling last year, 86 for 12, 19, and 6. I think he's, I just don't know if he can get back to that. Here's an interesting statistic for everyone out there who's going to totally agree with that narrative. And I think that.

And the majority probably will. Absolutely. Which is to your point that he will always be drafted below where you believe he belongs. 85% of people out there will think, well, Cooper Cup will come back. He's not the guy we saw. Well, you had eight games with Cooper Cup. You had eight games without Cooper Cup. Which one do you think he scored more fantasy points in? Because it was with Cooper Cup. He scored two more fantasy points a game, 17.74 PPR versus 15.46 with Cooper Cup.

Yeah, I mean, they were on fire. I love Robert Woods. You do. And which is ironic. Early my guy candidate. It's ironic because, I mean, I loved Robert Woods. Yeah, yeah. No, back in the... There was a time when Buffalo had Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods, and Markey's Goodwin on the same roster. And Hogan might have been there one year with all three of them as well. And people still thought Tyrod Taylor was a good quarterback. Yeah, I blame Rex Ryan. I blame... Sure. I'm funny blaming Rex Ryan on that, too.

Tyrod Taylor is an interesting free agent candidate, by the way. He's a great fantasy quarterback. He's a very interesting. Like there's a world where Tyra Taylor ends up in Jacksonville, not Nick Foles. That's what I believe. Absolutely. All right. This is another great question here. Will Chris Carson see 20 plus touches a game because he did it over the last four weeks of last season? And seven times during the year he had more than 20 touches. Chris Carson was a work horse. 22, 28, 27, 20. That's how he finished the year.

They had the second fewest rushing attempts two years ago to having the most rushing attempts last year. That's the way it's going to continue for them. They were successful. They won their last five games. Chris Carson was a monster. So does he continue to see 20 plus touches the game, Jason? No. Ending or ending? No, I don't think he does. Will he be close? I mean, I'm going to probably stat him out for about 288 touches.

on a 16-game year, which will be... That's a lot of touches. That's a lot of touches. But 451 is what the team had. Yeah, that would... Well, and that's probably including Russell Wilson, all his scrambles. So that would be about 18 a game. Which says, I think Chris Carson's going to get a lot of work. But I don't believe he's going to be a 20-plus touch guy. I think Rashad Penny...

gets more involved. You know, year two, you forget, he broke his hand early in the season in the training camp, miss a preseason games, was a little out of shape. But later in the year, Rashad Penny looked good. Now, Mike Davis is, I guess I was going to say probably gone. That's no foregone conclusion. He might be back, but he is an unrestricted for you. Yeah, I think you over-emphasized Mike Davis's usage, though. I know, I know that they used them last year, but even if he's back,

Penny, the first round draft capital and how you saw Penny use at the end of the year, I'm just less concerned than you are about Mike Davis, about a guy that, any guy that can just be re-signed for pennies on the dollar, which is what the case is going to be for them. I just don't worry about him. Yeah, I mean, the only reason I worry about Mike Davis is just simply touches. For Rashad Penny, it's the passing work, right? He had 34 receptions. He was often used as the pass catching back. Rashad Penny should.

do that because he has the capability, but he also had 112 rushing attempts. So, you know, it's just a good enough number to where those going away have to be taken up by someone. More than likely, if Mike Davis leaves, they're not going to not sign another back. Sure, sure. So I think we both agree. I don't think 20 plus a game is going to be in the realm of possibility, but that would be 320 carries on the season. And also one thing to keep in mind, Chris Carza does not have a great.

track record of health and when you watch him play you understand why because he runs like a man with no fear of pain or linebackers have you seen his shoulders that's why he runs that way dude he's a he is a he is a laboratory creation one could call him a man yes yes but uh still even these superstar NFL players

300 carries a season. That's tough. All right. Here's one that I want to focus on. Will Derek Henry see 15 plus rushing attempts per game in the upcoming year? Because look, 2016, 7.3 a game, 2017, 11 a game, last year, 13.4 a game. But over the last...

part of the season, he was an absolute monster. And the thing that should surprise fantasy owners about Derek Henry is it wasn't just a volume situation. Look, you know he had the monster game, the super game. But look, Derek Henry had success last year seeing eight plus men in the box 44% of the time. There's more than anybody in football. He received the ball around the goal line, the second most of anybody in football. He actually had pro football-focus rushing metrics.

that put him in the upper echelon of performance last year as a runner. So it wasn't just volume. That's what I want to bring up. And so it's like, do we have to just accept the fact that Derek Henry is more valuable than we ever thought he would be? Yeah, we really, really do. If I were to, I mean, the overrunner here, 15 carries a game, that is way too low. This is an easy, absolutely yes, he will average more than 15 touches.