Early WR Rankings: Top 10 Countdown + Game Breakers, Waterworld - Fantasy Football Podcast for 4/20

They lost Dalton Schultz, who was a, you know, absorbed some targets, although he was hurt at times last year. We'll see if they add another body at tight end in the draft, one of the top tier Mayor Kincaid. And then the offensive coordinator, Kellan Moore is gone. You have this Mike McCarthy, Brian Schottenheimer, Doom combo. This is the cremudgeons. I guess that's a lot, a lot of the reasons he's not going to end up on my team for his. for his draft costs. Like, I think you have to pay up for C.D. Lamb, and I don't think I'm willing to do it. But, I mean, wide receiver eight and best ball, I don't think I'm going to do that. Yeah, I understand that the, the Cowboys, they have a good defense, and they want to run the ball more. They want to rest their defense more. And this could slow things down. Plus, with Brandon Cook's there, the target volume might not be exclusively his. But to.

Go back to looking at the DAC splits. You know, when he got back week seven and on, he was currently at that time on pace for about 1,100 yards and five touchdowns. It was with backup quarterback play, and we were questioning whether he was truly a star or just a really good wide receiver. But once that came back, I mean, his numbers were outrageously good. He was on target for... 114 receptions, 1468 yards, double-digit touchdowns. He was not just like, oh, he is a good receiver. He was a world-beating fantasy wide receiver, a top three type of pick statistically. So you've got to kind of compare that deck coming back. You know it's a good offense. I don't think...

that McCarthy, as much as he wants to rest his defense and you lose more, I don't think he's going to say, I want to be a bad offense. He's still going to try to go out there to score, and C.D. Lamb is a true playmaker. So, you know, I think where he's being drafted right now is very fair. I could see myself pulling the trigger as a top pick. You have over the last decade to what Jason is talking about, of proving that C.D. Lamb is truly that stud. Over the last decade, wide receivers with 100 plus receptions and 1,300 or more yards. As a 23-year-old, the list is Anquan Bolden, certified stud, Brandon Marshall, certified, Hopkins, Justin Jefferson, and C.D. Lamb. So, I mean, that particular statistic of massive production at the age of 23, that's crazy company to be associated with. It leads to very good places career-wise.

I think he's as safe as anybody in this top 10 for guaranteed production. Because bringing in Brandon Cooks, having Gallup healthier, it doesn't, you know, those aren't going to replace your number one target. Number seven is Devante Adams. 30 years old now. Jason has him the highest at five. I got him at seven right now, Mike at eight. Change a quarterback for a second straight year for Devante Adams. Jimmy G., the new man in town. For now. Last year was, A great year, 180 targets, 100 receptions, 15, 116 yards, 14 touchdowns, finished at wide receiver 3 and has been a top three guy for four or five years. It's probably foolish to doubt Devante Adams' production in any way, shape, and form. And we could end up a little low here. I'm curious what it'll look like when we get through our actual projections for the UDK here in June. But the downgrade at quarterback didn't matter.

scored a billion touchdowns. Did have a bunch of those weird games where first half it was unbelievable and then he's gone in the second half. They just don't go to him. But you also had a bunch of weird games where he was not doing anything. You know, week two, two for 12. This is Devante Adams. It was two for 12. Week eight against the Saints. One. reception for three yards. And then the stretch during the fantasy football playoffs, which he was the wide receiver 38, 58, and 80 before if you managed to get through to the championship week, Adams was one of those players that won the week because he was the wide receiver too. But that's the only reason I have him just a little bit lower is, like, is Jimmy Garoppolo just as good?

Will he be just as good as Derek as Derek Carr was in this offense? I don't know. It's a variable that should cast at least a little bit of doubt, but Adams is he's still a top-tier player. He can still be a top-five guy, but... I have them outside of that because there's other guys that I just believe a little bit more will be in that range. Yeah, I mean, you have to make the decision whether you want to go for youth and athleticism and future upside versus the known commodity with variables. Because unfortunately, there are variables here. You lost Darren Waller. You bring in Jacoby Myers. You get to change a quarterback. And honestly, this is a player in Devante Adams that could change drastically.

during the NFL draft. You know, the Raiders have still been tied to trade up rumors for Levis or Anthony Richardson. You know, if they end up with a first round quarterback, I would expect Jimmy G. to play half the season and then the other quarterback to come in. And I will certainly lower Devante Adams in that regards. But he is, I mean, what you saw last year was still domination. He had six games where he was a top three weekly. wide receiver. I mean, he's just a weak winner six times. So the talent's there and you know he's not going to be a bad wide receiver. There's nothing on film to say that, you know, he's lost the step. Let's talk to the, let's talk about the most discontent man in football for some reason. Always. Let's go with Stefan Diggs here, 154 targets. He's fueled by his rage. Coming in at number six.

You know, didn't show up to the offseason program. You know, this is a player that's gotten 166, 165, 154 targets in three straight years, finishing at 3, 7, and 4. I heard a downtrend. Oh, because the targets were. I mean, who went from 166 down to 165 down to 154. I'm just trying to figure out why he's mad. He was really angry when the season ended. Sideline yelling at Josh Allen and things like that. But as a fantasy player, he's kind of. automatic right now? Like if he's playing for the Buffalo Bills, he is an automatic production machine. You can't go a game as the Buffalo offense without heavy involvement from Stefan Dix. You have fourth in red zone targets, third in yards per route, run, third in receptions. He's still that dude, or as he would declare on the sidelines, I am him. Ah. He loves to tell people that he is him. The question on like,

My only question here for Stefan Diggs, and this is just what gets into speculation, is what happens if DeAndre Hopkins goes to the Buffalo Bills? Because that seems to be one of the loudest pieces of noise out there in the media of teams that could trade for DeAndre Hopkins. He's one of the, Hopkins wants to go to the Buffalo Bills. He's made that known publicly. Would you still be confident in this ranking of Stefan Dix? No, I mean, that would destroy. And it wouldn't make for a bad season from Diggs or Hopkins, but it would certainly take, you know, the top five upside of either one out because.

you know, the defenses are going to do different things in different games and you're going to have one of the things that's great about. You're taking lamb over Diggs if Hopkins went there? I would say a handful of these guys we've talked about. If Hopkins was there, you know, I would see Diggs as a top 10 wide receiver, but the guys with that high top three range of outcomes, I would still draft over them because pretty much everyone we're talking on today's show is relatively safe. So I'm looking for the ceiling case. The safety is. The key thing for Stefan Diggs, you don't get more consistent. 76.5% of his games hit our threshold in his last 17 games played of being a really good wide receiver week. So he's just week in, week out, very, very solid. I don't expect Hopkins to be there, and I don't have him ranked right now like Hopkins were going there. But if he did, certainly it would change his outlook.

All right, let's move on to a player that's been in the top 12, two of the last three years. Inj. Brown, number five on the early ranks. I got him up at three. Jason at six, Mike at six, finished a wide receiver five last year. He is the alpha of a dynamic offense. You know what you're going to get. He is too physically dominant to be stopped by opposing defenses. He always seems to get his led the NFL in receiving yards on vertical routes, fourth in air yards, fourth in air yards per target. Jalen Hurts ain't afraid to throw that ball up. I mean, that's the truth of the Eagles last year. There's just nothing that's going to go wrong for AJ Brown short of injury. Right. He is he's too good. This is a player who was a top.

12 wide receiver when he had 106 targets. That's it. Well, last year he went up to 146. Now he's actually able to be a volume wide receiver based on that kind of target number. And then he's still getting the ball downfield. He's obviously very young. He's physically stronger and bigger than all of these DBs out there. He plays for a great offense. The only issue here is kind of do you worry about the, you know, is what if? Could he become the number two in the target order? And I think he very well could just from a stylistic difference between him and Devante Smith. And then would that hurt him much? This is one of the teams that I have taken a deeper dive on so far with the ultimate draft kit projections that we're working on. And it was just kind of eye-opening to me to look at Jalen Hertz season and to see the different forms of potential that exist for Jalen Hertz.

Do you remember off the top of your head how many passing touchdowns Jalen Hertz had last year? It's sub 30. Mike? Yeah, it was low 20s. 22. Yeah. 11 of the 22 were A.J. Brown. Like there is passing game upside. I think J. Helens had 13 or 14 rushing touchdowns. So as this offense develops, they do have a new offensive coordinator. There is, there's 15, 16 touchdown upside in A.J. Browns. range of outcomes. Not saying it's what I would bet on, but I just think that, you know, the way that they've made the commitment to Jalen Hertz, AJ Brown's going to be the guy for several years there. And we're going to talk about him on the show every year. Yeah, because he's great. Tyreek, Mike, talk to me about Tyreek Hill, what you expect for him, 170 targets. He comes in at four here. He was the wide receiver two last year. Every bit of concern and doubt in the offseason.

was foolishness from the fantasy community. He is that guy, that good. And I made, we had talked about his little retirement pronouncement on the show. I think I had made the misstatement that he had two years left. But he said he'd be there until the end of 25, which would be three more seasons, which if you can give me three more seasons of Tyreek, I don't need any more than that. That's an eternity. Yep. About 120 receptions, 1,700 yards, 7 touchdowns, led all wide receivers and yards per route run at 3.2. 3.2 yards per route run is outrageous. That is a truly ridiculous number. And still fast. And this was just another example of, in recent history, I should say, another example of the craziness of the NFL of us seeing true number one wide receivers changing teams.

And it working out just fine. The Mike McDaniel system, it's based off of the Shanahan entry. You know it's going to put up numbers. So I have no concerns here with Tyree Kill. I would take him in the first round. Probably take him pretty early in the first round, too. Does he stop you from drafting Waddle if you get him early? It's not my preference to spend. Where is Waddle going? Waddle. Probably like third round, maybe. He's going about Wattop. Nass ball ADP is wide receiver 11. Yeah, so that'll be two, three turn-ish. Yeah, it's not my preferred way to use my draft capital to early picks because there is a good chance that both of them finish his top 12 guys, but you're not going to have, like, you don't have a way to hit the number one and the number two wide receiver if you go that route. So it would be picking between them. And I would strongly prefer a first on Tyreek over maybe a two-three-turn value on Waddle.

Yeah, because the two-three turn value on Waddle, that is a slight value, but it's not some outrage. It's like we were talking about D.K. Metcalfe versus Tyler Lockett. If Tyler Lockett's in the seventh round, that's an absurd value. Jalen Waddle is going where he should be going, and maybe he can outproduce that. But you aren't going to do what Tyreek Hill can do if Tyree Kill is on the field because Tyree Kill had a hundred and seventy. targets. And when you've got that speed and that yards per route run and that many targets, it's just a guarantee that you're great. He had half of his games were over double digit targets. Like, there's nothing not to love here. Jamar Chase put together a wide receiver 12 season last year in just 12 games. Impressive. He's the wide receiver 3 on our early rankings here. I've got him at 2, Jason at 3, Mike at 4. I mean, when you get to the top of these rankings,

It feels a little bit silly to tell you the listener that they're good at football. Yeah. So let's try. Let's talk about how bad he is. Yeah, let's talk about his weaknesses. Let's start with his hips. I think that's why he missed some games, Mike. Right. But now it's stronger then. Yeah. Oh, did he get like a bionic? No, no. It's just like when you. Well, you should have gone bion. Your bones get stronger when you heal. You didn't know that? It's one of the reasons I break my bones on purpose. Yes. Interesting. We all do that around here. Over the off season, it was the shin bone. Yeah. What do you think I'm so good at pickleball? I got a real strong bone. He has broken his legs 25 times. Wow. Yeah. But we're saying he's done breaking his legs? No, he'll never be done. Oh, okay. So then I'm a little worried. Put in the work. Number one in expected fancy points per game. Targeted on 24.5% of his routes.

Everything that Jamar Chase brings to your fantasy team is so valuable because he has weak winning game-breaking performances, but he has stability. He has red zone. We know how solid he is. You got a, you know, a connection with Joe Burrow that will last many, many years, would have finished much higher. His best ball ADP is wide receiver too, so no one's holding it against him. No, I mean, there's, there's. nothing bad to say. He's obviously, he's 23 years old. He's only going to continue getting better. If he plays a full season, he obviously can finish as the wide receiver one. Yep. Personally, I like the other two players that are ahead of him more than Jamar Chase, or obviously he's the only one player, Justice Jefferson is ahead of him in ADP, but there are two players I like more than Jamar Chase solely based upon.

guaranteed volume, just outrageous outpourings, complete ownership of the market. Here you've got a quarterback that can spread the ball around and weapons that allow that. Yeah, you had a stretch to start last year where Jamar Chase wasn't a top 25 wide receiver for a month, wide receiver 45, 41, 28, 38, and then he jumps back up, you know, back to back weeks of number one. But I agree with Jason of, uh, Very, very happy to have Jamar Chase as my number one pick. We'll draft him in the first round. But I think that the volume is just a little safer on a week-to-week basis with the other two guys. Yeah, the volatility of Chase is so much fun when you have him and he does well because it's like when he has his game, you go, oh, I win. It doesn't matter how the rest of your team did. But if you look at his consistency score for being the number two ADP wide receiver,

He's actually got a beat from us, and that does not include his missed games. This is a rolling 17-game log of his last games played, where he is on average, you know, getting above that benchmark that we say is a good wide receiver game 58.8% of the time. And if I'm taking that pick with the number one, two, or three wide receiver, I would prefer to have a more consistent asset. Number two, Cooper Cup. I got him at four, Jason at one, Mike at two, and I don't have any problem with that number one overall ranking. I mean, it's until he doesn't do what he's done with Matthew Stafford, it's totally justifiable to keep him there. He is a game breaker. He's always open. He does some sort of cheating, I guess, on the field to not be covered or to always be open towards the end of a play no matter how much the defense focuses on him.

Yeah, I mean, he's outrageous. And I think because of what happened both to the Rams and to Cooper Cup last season, add in his age, people are going to fall a little bit. They're going to say, I don't want, you know, to be holding the age bag when it comes. He was injured at the end of last season. So I'll take the young studs. And I don't blame them for that. That's a correct mentality most of the time. But Cooper Cup is not. a good wide receiver. He isn't a solid fantasy asset. He was the number one by a huge ginormous gap two years ago when he had 1,900 yards and 16 receiving touchdowns every week an absolute dominator. And then what he did last year was better. He was outrageous every single week. The entire season he played was unstoppable. And then he got injured.

And it wasn't a huge injury. It wasn't an ACL tear. It wasn't something that was, he could have come back. The tight rope surgery. Yeah, he had the tight rope surgery. He could have come back last year, but they're like, why would we? Yeah. Why would we? So he's fully healthy. He hasn't aged out. He hasn't been anything but dominant. So I get it if you want to go young, want to, want to worry about the injury. That's fine. But for me, if this is redraft, obviously not in a keeper or dynasty, but in a redraft league, he's my number one until he's not.

outclassing the world. I think his injury I'm not concerned about. Matthew Stafford, I am a little bit more concerned about. He didn't finish the season last year. He's had these chronic back problems now for multiple years. He's 35. There was, you know, whispers of retirement. I still think that it's not a 0% chance that Matthew Stafford ends up retiring before this season. He could get into training camp and go, oh, no, I don't want to do that again to my back. Seems like the odds are that he will play, but that's going to be hanging over, it's going to be a cloud over Cooper Cup's fantasy value of, did they, like, do the Rams manage to fix their offensive line? Because they need to protect Matthew Stafford. If he's getting beat up like he was last year, you're probably looking at some more missed games for the franchise quarterback. And that becomes a big problem for Cooper Cup.

Kyle, do you know off the top of your head what the win total is right now for the Rams? I think it was at seven and a half. Yeah, I mean, that take the under. That's one of those things where it's a tough one because I don't think they're going to have a great offense. I don't think they're going to have a great defense. I think their coach flirted with retirement. They did addition by subtraction. Got rid of A-Rob. Yeah, they did. Yeah, and. So you're in this situation where you don't necessarily believe in the team. But they were a bad team last year. And he still had the production. So will the recipe really change? Probably not. Do they have to go find somebody else now? I mean, it didn't work. Beckham didn't come back. And then A. Rob wasn't the answer on the other side. And Robert Woods is gone. And like there has to be some past catching solutions outside of.

Cooper Cup. Yeah, there are clear worries, right? Big variables. I think Matthew Stafford, you're right to bring him up as that would be a deal breaker. You know, that stretch where he was great, he did have Matthew Stafford. They kind of left the season at the same time and they're like, yeah, let's pack this up. We suck. So there are concerns. But just to illustrate before he went out in week nine, Cooper Cup was averaging 20.3 fantasy points per game. on a half PPR. Justin Jefferson was at 18.1. Jamar Chase at 16.9. So, I mean, he was the number one. So that's kind of what you're getting if you want to take the risk that there will be a healthy season for the Rams. Justin Jefferson at number one, rounding out our top 10 countdown. He's at two for Jason behind cup and then Mike and I both have him at one. Six most receiving yards of all time? Last year, yeah. Last year. Wow.

184 targets 128 catches 18009 yards eight touchdowns weren't we on watch for him to maybe break Calvin's record last couple weeks of the year I think we were looking at what he needed to do and then he gave us 15 yards in championship week at 38 after that so you know he wasn't the only thing I'll say is he wasn't as consistent as you would think with those numbers correct 29% of his games he actually busted according to our consistency metrics He was held under 50 yards seven times. Yeah, that's not great. And I don't, like for that not to happen, I don't know if they have the other receiver. Oh, they're drafting. They're drafting somebody. Because KJ. Osborne, you know, I don't think he'll be the guy for them. And Thielen's gone and wasn't the guy last year. So I think you do need that threat to bring that consistency into focus. And look, that could be a cousin's problem too.

Cousins is just like sometimes he shows up and he installed the wrong software. I don't know why that happens, but it's like he needs a reboot and he doesn't get a chance to do it. He needs a solid 10 hours of sleep every single night. If he doesn't get to 10, he's a little bit of grumpy. And he needs the granola in the morning. Do you think Adam Thielen, who played a full season, did he open up enough things, even this version of Adam? Like, will that loss? hurt Justin Jefferson at all because I agree with you. KJ. Osborne, he's always in the crowd, never the bridesmaid as the saying goes. What? Well, like, he hopes to be the bridesmaid. Oh, but he's just, so he's just bouquet catcher. Right. Exactly. He's not even able to be the bride's made. I think where it went wrong is like that makes sense. But when you said as the saying goes, well, that was the joke because that's not how the saying goes. Oh, I see. Boston. So.

But my point is... These aren't things you can joke about because we don't know when, you know... I don't think he steps up enough and there won't be a number two unless Hawkinson. Yeah, unless Hawkinson is even better than he was at the end of last year, do you think that that could hurt Justice Jefferson in any way? Or is he just too good? You can double cover him and he's still going to get open. Yeah, I think you might have the same level of inconsistency, if you want to call it that for the best fantasy whiteout. You're going to have that, I think, until you have a...

whether it's a field stretcher coming out of the draft, whether it's somebody else that can be a threat in those situations. Not much is going wrong for Justice Jefferson. Man, I'm feeling out 107 targets. Justice Jefferson might break 300 targets. I would throw to him if I was his quarterback. Yeah, I would throw to him if I was his running back. Yeah. I would get the ball and I'd go, go get open. It's good. It's good. Ultimate draft kit. Go get it. Ultimate drafta.com. Next week is the draft, the NFL draft, and we have Ultimate Draft Week coming. Yes, we do. So that means we have some big announcements coming next week. Is that where we'll leave it? Yes. Big, big announcements. Yes. Sometime soon. Next week. Yes. A smattering of horns. Hmm. I'll make sure they're all warmed out. All the trumpeters will be warmed up. I'll get my harmonica ready. Well. No.

A harmonica reference, huh? Have you given that a go before? It's going to be my first time. Oh, yeah. What was the band? Blues Traveler? Blues Traveler. Yeah, there we go. Blues Traveler and Waterworld today. Oh, maybe. I want Jason to be the first harmonica player that, you know, the little, like the neck. Yeah, so you can play the guitar. What would you call it? It's like a holder of some kind. It goes around your neck and, but I want him to be the first one that wears that to play the harmonica. but does not play another instrument. Oh, he only, but he no hands in? He no hands. He does a no hand harmonica. I love that idea. I need to be able to dance. He kind of does some dancing with it. Yeah. Um, there, you know, you'd make dozens on the, as a street performer doing that for sure over a couple months. Yeah. I want that to be the way you celebrate your Bijon Robinson pick, you know. I'll bring a harmonica to the draft party.