Fantasy Wildcards + Hype Check

There's a question mark at the end of it. Running back for the Washington Redskins, the Redskins brought back Adrian Peterson after a highly productive year. How productive was Adrian Peterson's year? Here's how productive. It was so productive that we had somebody right in to our customer support line believing that the consistency chart data that we had was wrong because Adrian Peterson was so high. Did you see that?

He was so productive in Washington. Chris Thompson always injured, always limited dynamic when he's out there. But Darius guys, look, he tore his ACL, his left knee during the first preseason game last year. Mike had been texting me highlights of him right before it happened. Yeah, that.

That sucked. And he underwent reconstructive surgery. Then an infection forced him to have three additional procedures to drain fluid from the knee. It delayed his rehab. Now he's back to doing agility drills, but all reports say he's nowhere close to 100%. And our injury expert from the ultimate draft kit, he says, look, you can't take the infection lightly because it delayed the rehab and recovery.

I don't believe you're going to get a workhorse with Darius Geis, but that doesn't mean he's not a fantasy wild card because the potential for Darius Geis is three-down potential, right, Mike? Yes, it absolutely is. I mean, he's not, his production profile coming out of college was not that of a monster pass catcher, but you have to take into account where he came from of LSU. The same thing happened with Leonard Fournett. Darius Geis was an incredible talent coming in.

to the running back position in an absolute juicy spot at Washington where you saw what Adrian Peterson did with his old decrepit body. I'm with you, Andy, that what Darius Geis could be is a top 20 running back. I'm not going to put Darius guys say the ceiling is a top 10 guy, but he could easily be a top 20 guy if he were healthy.

and getting the actual workload. But with them bringing back Adrian Peterson, they drafted Bryce Love, who he's dealing with his own injury, but they spent a fourth rounder on an injured running back, almost just a cue card telling the fantasy industry that we're very concerned about Darius Geis, not just for this year, but for the future of this franchise. And at a minimum, you could be looking at a situation where.

Look, I don't know if the second half of the year for Derry's Geis is all of a sudden fantasy superstardom for your team because the cost, I mean, I have them ranked at 40, but his average draft position is in the fifth round right now. Yeah, he's currently, according to fantasy football calculator, the RB 26. That's too high. That's too high for you to take the chance that he's what, a top?

20 back like yeah the chance to me is okay he he is the guy he's not going to get the receptions but he's going to be the man on the ground he's going to be very good and maybe he's the running back 15 so like that would be great value it would be okay value but i don't feel like i mean that's that's like i believe ceiling i think if he if he takes the role and what is okay with it he's in the 20s he's where he's being drafted but the risk on the other side is he's worthless

Sure. I think the fifth round is too high for me to want to be a part of the wild card experience here with Darius guys. And it hurts me because in the beginning of the off season, I actually acquired him in a dynasty league. I've since moved on. But I did it because I, you know, I believed he was further along in the recovery and ahead of the Adrian Peterson resigning and things like that. I think there's a great future for Darius, guys. I'm not sure it's this year. He certainly is a wild card. I believe that his draft.

place, like where he's drafted, will range wildly among different leagues. It's just what you believe about it. Right. It's hard to find a guy that could be a three-down skill set on a team that wants to give somebody that responsibility, but there's too many variables with Peterson and Thompson and Bryce Love and the injury. I think that the draft prices is okay. I mean, there are players behind him like David Montgomery, but Montgomery and his opportunity.

are going to come in. He'll be higher than Darius guys come actual draft season in August. But I think, in fact, it's fair. It's a fair factoring in what he could be with the injury instead of people just completely discounting him and throwing him away. Okay. So fantasy wild card. We turn into Jason Moore here. Yeah. So my wild card is a guy who has been hyped and has failed.

from a fantasy perspective, year after year after year, he gets more hype than he performs with, and that's Sammy Watkins. Sammy Watkins is a guy that is a complete wildcard this year because of two reasons. One is obviously the Tyree Kill Pat Mahomes situation, right? Like he's on one of the best offenses in the league. And Tyree Kill, sorry to cut you off to you, but as we know, Tyree Kill that are still.

The only update we've received recently was that the NFL is aware and they're monitoring the situation. Well, and further than that, they want that situation to finish playing out before they make their decision. So who knows how long that will last? There's a possibility that week one, Tyree Kill, is...

They're on the team unless the Kansas City Chiefs make a decision otherwise. Right. So that's already part of the wild card, right? It's like as of right now, my belief, I assume right or wrong that Tyree Kill is not going to be part of the Kansas City Chiefs in 2019. I don't think he plays a game in 2019, which gives great opportunities Sammy Watkins, who most people don't want to touch. And why don't they want to touch him? Because every single year, he has been overdrafted.

For the most part. If you look back to, and I want to have your guys' ears, right? Because I know you know who Sammy Watkins is. You have your opinions on Sammy Watkins and what's happened in his career. Andy, you recently have talked about how. Those type of things. You have recently talked about how he's just done. He doesn't, there's no chance he can be great. Andy is full shark tank right now on Sammy Watkins. I think I'm more done with Sammy than Sammy may be done.

I believe I said he doesn't have the ceiling he once had. Yes. So I want to walk you through his career real quick. 2014. If you go back and look at pre-draft rankings, he was the cream of the crop. He was the bell of the ball. And this was a year. What year was that again? 2014. Got it. I'm trying to remember. Well, it's an important distinction because it was the year that O'Dell Beckham was there. It was the year that Mike Evans was there. Kelvin Benjamin.

There were a lot of great players that came out that season, and he was a cut above, to the point where I don't know if you remember this, Buffalo Bills sitting on the clock number nine in the draft. They need a wide receiver. They trade a future first and fourth to go up five spots and grab Sammy Watkins at five. I mean, his talent was just so sure of hitting.

that they were willing to take that step. And then look at how his career went. First year, great for a rookie wide receiver. 982 yards, six touchdowns. He was like, okay, he's going to be something special. Sophomore year comes out. He's the number one on the team. He's facing the best defenders. Over 1,000 yards, nine touchdowns. What he showed is that, oh, yeah, he is going to be a special wide receiver, except he did that.

in only 13 games because he got injured. That's when everything started falling apart. Missing games, foot injuries, you know, all sorts of problems. Then he gets traded to the Los Angeles Rams. Do you remember when he was traded? Preseason. Late preseason. Like season starts manana. He was actually traded right after we had recorded an episode of the podcast because he was a jerk. Right. And we couldn't talk about it. The point is.

He was not able to get in plugged into that system. He had very few targets. Nine out of the first 10 games. He didn't have, I think, five targets. Still ended up with a great touchdown count on the season. Then he comes to the last year, new system again in Kansas City. I just.

Why do you care so much? Here's why I care. Michael Floyd was the top 10 pick. He's out of the league. Michael Floyd never showed that he had anything on the field. Sure he did. Yes, he had more total yardage than Sammy's had in more years. On a per game basis, Sammy Watkins has shown that he is elite. I feel like you have a gun to your head from Sammy Watkins family right now. Floyd had a thousand yards season. Yeah.

great. He had a thousand-yard season, but if you look on a per-game basis, he doesn't touch Sammy Watkins. Even this last year, where everybody hates Sammy Watkins and they think he had a bad year, he was actually, he had a 20% market share. You keep in mind that two of the games that show up on his box score when you look at how many games he played, he was in 10% of those snaps. He tried to come back in week 11 from the foot and then quickly was out of the game. Like he didn't play. Nobody played him in that fantasy week. Look, injuries are real.

And if he gets injured, he's going to be an absolute bust as a wild card. But when he was playing for Pat Mahomes with Tyreek Hill last year, this really good wide receiver, in my opinion, had 20% market share and was basically a top 15 wide receiver with Tyreek Hill there. If he comes and plays 16 games this year and Tyree kills out, what's his ceiling?

With Pat Mahomes. What is, what is? It's not as high as you think it is. I think it's top five. Because good, oh, that's insane. Good receivers don't need, like, speeches to tell you why they couldn't be good over and over and over and over. In New System, it was a late trade. He's got to be in Los Angeles. Otherwise, he'd be good. New System last year. He finished 63rd in Fantasy because he was hurt. New System. I don't.

I think it's just excuses that don't need to be made. My point is he will have big games. I've said that all offseason. I'm worried. The wild card for me is that he does not have that ceiling anymore. They will distribute the ball elsewhere. They will not let him be a top five guy because he can't be a top five guy. That ship sailed long ago. Because he's 26? He's 24. No. What?

Hold on. No, he's not 24. I think he's like 25. That's what your consistency charts tell me. I think he's 25 and like 300 and something days. Yes, he's 25. He'll be 26 in a week. But I just think that we've seen so many career arcs. There's so many top 10 players that don't become nothing. Why is he going to become something? Because of Patrick Mahomes? No, it's because he's not good.

No, no, no, see, that's what I do. He's not good enough. He's not good enough. That's where I get upset because we've seen top 10 guys that just busts. They're not good. If you're good enough, don't you make your mark on Sean McVeigh's offense to the tune of more than 39 receptions? I think you're good enough to go and have the Kansas City Chief say, hey, you want $48 million? Yeah, that was exactly the point I was going to go to. A guy who's on his third chance or whatever in the league.

They don't receive $48 million for three years. They know he's a great wide receiver. The guys who bust out, like Brasad Perryman, Kevin White, they're not strolling into a $50 million deal. They're getting one-year deals for nothing. That's because they all receive Jason's pamphlets. He's been mailing this stuff out. Look, the NFL, Andy Reid and company. It's hard to say if he plays, if he plays 16, he'll have a very productive season. Not a top five season.

He also never play 16. Right. Well, nonsense is. I'm definitely in the middle of you guys. I wouldn't say his ceiling is top five, but his ceiling to me is he's the top 15. Brooks, where do we have, do we have that in there? So Jason has him at 17. I'm at 26. I'm not burying his soul. I just don't think his ceiling is what you think it is. You just said top five. You think Sammy Walken ceiling is top five. I think that that is impossible. If he plays 16, I think he's locked for a top 15 wide receiver.

But his ceiling, if he really balls out, I think, is a top five guy because in order to be top five, usually you need a lot of touchdowns. And if I need a lot of touchdowns, I want Aaron Rogers. I love touchdowns. I want Patma Holmes. I want Peyton Manning. They give more touchdowns. They're very generous. They are giving, charitable, benevolent. Mike, I'm not even going to let you talk because.