The TRUTH About Fantasy RBs in 2020, Part 2 - Fantasy Football Podcast for 1/28

talked about him in the Bicel portion of the show. Here's an interesting name, Jason. Running back 17, Chris Carson. Christopher Carson, RB17, consistency rank of 13. He only busted 8% of the time. He really only had one horrifically bad game, and that was the game against Arizona. And I believe he got hurt in that matchup because he did miss the next month.

of action before returning, getting his job back, and then was a running back 2-ish for the rest of the season. What are your thoughts on Chris Carson, and will he be back with the Seattle Seahawks? Yeah, if he is back, then I'm all in in the sense that I think he's just a really, really good running back who fits the system. This team is talking about running the ball more. We did see at the end of the year they kind of utilized more.

backs, it was more of a rotation. 46 targets for Chris Carson. Sorry, that's just, that, that's crazy. He, he has the capability of being a good pass catching back. He showed that this year. He catches it smoothly in stride. That wasn't what he was always known for, but obviously he's worked on that with Russ. I like Chris Carson. I expect him to be back. You know, he's an unrestricted free agent. They can do anything they want. They've got Carlos Hyde. I don't know how they're feeling about Rashad Penny.

Is Rashad Penny still going into his fourth year? He will be under contracts. This isn't really a team that I've fought about it because they have so many question marks at the running back position. Najee Harris landing on the Seattle Seahawks. I wouldn't be very mad about that. No, that would be. I mean, that would be Marshaun Lynch, who's one of the comps that I have. Marshal Lynch with better hands. Oh, man.

Oh, man, now you got me hot and bothered. I don't want that. I don't want that in this division. You don't want that because I have the 101. Oh, I don't want that because of all of the reasons. I have no 101s. I don't want that to happen, but that would be awesome. Yeah, I mean, it's one of those things where the only thing we could talk about is the truth of this season with not next season for Chris Carson. And the truth is he missed a bunch of games, but he was really good every time he played. He just.

He's efficient. You know, I believe he is, you know, he averages 13 and a half fantasy points per game in his four-year career. If he plays, he's a really solid running back. He's not a top guy. He's not a top six, top eight, top 10 weekly back, but he's never valued there. So I think he's going to be, you know, a good pick if he is a Seahawk. Number 18 was DeAndre Swift.

He had a consistency rank of 16. He was very consistent in terms of receiving targets from Matthew Stafford. Five. Five. Yep. Eventually. Five more. But he finished with 57 targets on the season. He was good 62% of the time. He was a, he was trending towards being a real league winning type of a player. Unfortunately, he got hurt. He missed three games there toward the end of the season.

The truth, though, is very difficult to break through on DeAndre Swift because we can look at the truth of what happened last year, but that's out the window. That is completely gone for DeAndre Swift. You have Guns Mahoney, aka Dan Campbell, getting that big, fat six-year contract talking about biting people's kneecaps. He did throw out, though, that he was talking about using DeAndre Swift in the slot a little bit more, which that would be.

nice to get him involved even more in the passing game. But the team will also be without Matthew Stafford, allegedly the rumors that Matthew Stafford and the team have come to a mutual decision that they are going to trade him, they are going to burn it all to the ground and rebuild it from the ashes like the Phoenix. DeAndre Swift, Jason, on a rebuilding team with Guns Mahoney, what are your feelings? Because we all had the arrow.

way, way up for DeAndre Swift. We were looking back at the rookie draft and it's like Clyde, I took Clyde Edwards Aller at number one. Was that a mistake? Like would I rather have DeAndre Swift in his situation with the lines? And then that just deteriorated rapidly. So where are you, where's your confidence with Swift heading into next year?

It's high, but its ceiling is, you know, the legs are cut out from underneath them because I expect the offense to be bad. However, I don't think Adrian Peterson is re-signed. You know, you've got a new regime here looking to rebuild. Why would they bring back Adrian Peterson? It doesn't fit what they're looking to do. I think they'll build around DeAndre Swift, and DeAndre Swift's exceptionally talented. So it's like, okay, for those reasons I'm in. But if the team is not very...

good and the scoring opportunities aren't there and the quarterback isn't one to check it down like Stafford, then, you know, the upside is, is not there. Whereas, you know, if we want to talk about another rookie that I'm excited about, J.K. Dobbins, J.K. Dobbins, who was the running back 20, the second half of the year is really the only thing you need to look at. You know, when Mark B. Correct. And then just got flat out that supplanted. We said it was going to happen. It happened clearly and effectively. From week 11.

When he took the job and the team finally had enough of giving the ball to Mark Ingram, from week 11 on, he was the running back eight averaging almost 17 fantasy points a game. And he was a top 20 running back every single one of those weeks, except he missed week 12. Yeah, and I mean, his second half consistency score shows that. He was the running back 13, and that includes a game where he wasn't.

involved yet in week 10 where he you know that's one of his bad games he was exceptionally consistent reliable has upside and is very talented on a team that is going to try every year to break the rushing records the rushing records so more yards after contact than ezekiel elliott and alvin camera he finished top 10 in pro football focuses elusive rating he has juice he has

He's got it. Where's he going to go in the draft? Let's say Gus is re-signed and it's just those two and maybe they sign a fourth, fifth round rookie, you know, add another Justice Hill type or whatever. But, you know, they're not going to bring in another huge back. Where do you think he ends up being drafted? Man, I think Dobbins probably in the second. I don't think he can make his way into the first with those other running backs and then you.

Travis Kelsey and then a couple of the top end wide receivers like Devante Adams. But Dobbins is definitely a second, you know, like that Kenyon Drake area. So that I guess the running like about the running back 12ish, I think he'll be drafted around there. Yeah, he's, I think he's going to be on a lot of my rosters. I mean, when you can match the team, the defense, the talent, the opportunity all together. Dobbins was one of our, you know, favorites.

pre-NFL draft, post-N-Fel draft. You know, the truth about Dobbin's season is you could not have asked for a better season. You know, you saw Clyde Edwards Aller, who you couldn't have asked for a better opportunity, but you sure's crap could have hoped for a better season. I mean, if, if J.K. Dobbins got that opportunity, he would have done something with it.

I don't know how much of this you blame on Clyde. I blame a lot. I mean, I, you know, have we officially transitioned to Clyde? I just did it. It was professional. Okay. It was a full, like, it was too professional. I didn't even feel it happened. Yeah, no, it's so professional. You don't know that anything is happening. You know, I was not a huge fan. I took some heat because I was not a huge fan of the talent. This is.

pre-NFL draft of Clyde Edwards-Layer. Everybody loved them. I think he was my running back six, maybe six or seven on my scouting. And then, of course, he went to the Kansas City Chiefs as the only first round pick and to the moon. I do think his outlook is better next year than this year, be more involved in the passing game. But I also, I think some of it's on him. I mean, I don't think he's as talented as those other rookies we just talked about. And a lot of people thought he was, you know,

well more talented well more talented yeah no no yes you stuck the landing okay i did stick the landing yeah oh no it's it's perfect just keep fantastic so he is well you know people i think he is not as well more talented yes than j k dobbins and dandre swift and cam acres like i'll take all those all those rookies talent over clide edwards allaire yeah in coming into the draft process i don't remember where i had clyde but at least

four or five on my list. I had him behind Swift or behind Swift, but I'm with you. As soon as he got to the Chiefs, he skyrocketed for me. He only busted 15% of the time. So he didn't hurt you, but the fact that he was only good 46% of the time and 0% great games, he never actually passed that threshold, which is crazy. Are we sure about that? He was the running back two in week 11.

In week 11 when he was the running back, too, he only had 20 points. It was just a super down. So just low scoring that week? Yeah, exactly. So, you know, 20 points doesn't meet the threshold of the great game. And I mean, what more can you ask for than to play with Pat Mahomes as a pass catching back with Andy Reed and not ever really have any spectacular performances, not really have the consistency you're looking for? He was.

You know, a back in running back too when it came to consistency. Here's my hope for Clyde Edwards Allaire. Darrell Williams is a restrictive free agent. I think the team might bring Darrell back. Levy on Bell will not be brought back. That dude is, he's burnt to a crisp. Damian Williams, who opted out. I like Damien Williams. You know, I've always been a Damian Williams truther since he got to Kansas City.

But he is an unrestricted free agent in a couple years. And it seems like he might be a cap casualty as well. So I think this team is going to move forward with Clyde and Darrell Williams. Rookie running back. What? Or I'm sorry, Leonard Fournett. Leonard Fournett will be part of this roster. Don't you put that. Do not put that evil on me. Oh, it's absolutely going to happen. And it's their secret sauce. They win a championship by signing.

They get Lashon McCoy and they're like, he's a big name, he's a pass catchback, we need him. And then they're like, oh, this dude's washed. Let's win a championship without him. And then they go get Levi-on-Bell. The running game matters. We're getting a good running back. And then they're like, it's just a joke. We're only signing him so we can pass the ball more. And then next year they'll get Leonard Fournette and they'll be the backup not played and they'll win another Super Bowl. I mean, if they're really going all in on this strategy, it's not Leonard Fernett that they're bringing in. They're bringing in Gurley.

Oh, that is the name. You're right because he is far more washed. Yes. Like one has got something left. That's, it's, thank you for the astute analysis, Mike. You are welcome. Todd Gurley will be a Kansas City chief next year. Oh, that's, that's a guarantee. I mean, you know, look, we would never say go to Vegas and put down a healthy bet on a, on a future prop. We would never say that, but it's clearly a,

a guarantee at this point? It's pretty close. But check this out for positive touchdown regression. If you're looking for that for Clyde Edwards O'Lear, rookie running backs who had 180 or more carries, he had the third lowest amount of rushing touchdowns over the last 20 years. You had T.J. Eldon's rookie year in Jacksonville, where if you remember that, where he just kept in nonstop volume, only two rushing touchdowns. Melvin Gordon.

Way back when, do you remember Melvin Gordon's rookie year where the fates conspired against him? Well, it was crazy. The circumstances that just kept happening over and over because Melvin Gordon had zero rushing touchdowns his rookie season. And then we know that that has certainly bounced back in a very positive way. I'm with you. The outlook for Clyde Edwards Aller is.

It's much better than it was for this year to me. Clyde Edwards-A-Layer, up until the point of his injury, was a top 12 running back. He was still there, even though he wasn't giving you weak-winning performances, but that's because he wasn't getting those burst games where he was scoring a bunch of touchdowns. So I'm still in. I'm Clyde. I'm Clyde. Okay. Rate these three next year in the draft. You've got Swift, Dobbins, and Clyde Edwards-A-Layer.

How are you drafting those three? What order? Oh, my, okay. I will go. There's no softballs here. That's a, that is a very difficult. I think, I think I will go Dobbins, Clyde Swift. Yeah, that's probably how I'd have it as well. Yeah. All right. We got a, we got a little bit of time here. We'll talk about a couple more guys, but Miles Sanders. What is the truth about Miles Sanders season? I don't know. The truth is that I had Miles Sanders.