Starts of the Week + Week 4 Breakdown, Confidence Canoe

I think the volume is great. You're obviously going to play a job. You should. Mark Ingram, you're obviously playing Mark Ingram. But a bigger question, fantasy owners probably want to know when they think about selling high. Is this going to be the Mark Ingram we get throughout the season? When you look at the schedule, he did what he needed to do, but it was Miami, Arizona, Kansas City. It's going to get...

Harder for Mark Ingram, not easier. And he's been one of the most efficient runners as well. Touchdown to carry ratio. His touchdown to carry ratio is absolutely out of control. He's carried the ball 43 times and he has five rushing touchdowns. Now, he has Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Seattle on the docket. I don't, those don't intimidate me to the point where I'm thinking it's going to change dramatically. At home against Cleveland and Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Seattle are.

Pretty nice matchups. They are. And what you've seen is, we've talked about this over the years, is that a mobile rushing quarterback oftentimes helps the running game. And you see it, you see why it happens. Lamar runs so much. The defenders are always looking to see if he's handing the ball off or keeping it. And they pause for a second. And that helps Mark Ingham. I think Mark Ingham is going to continue to be a great weekly play for the next half of the season. But he, you know.

He's not getting three touchdowns like he did last week. Four? You're going with four. All right. Beckham and Landry, you obviously can play Beckham. I think you probably sit Landry in this matchup. He's more in the, I don't know, he's a must bench player. I don't blame you if you want to kind of hang on to him and see what happens if this offense gets going because he's very talented. He's had seven targets, seven targets, nine targets. Jarvis Landry is the perfect example of fantasy not matching.

The NFL, because Jarvis Landry is a really freaking good wide receiver. As is Stefan Diggs. But the opportunity is not there for the fantasy points that we need. Jarvis Landry can be a great fantasy player when he's getting targets like he did in Miami. But he's not getting those targets. So he is a bench for me. Or if you're playing him, my expectations are low end wide receiver three at best. So one of the things that I'm doing in my fantasy leagues.

is targeting Marquise Brown everywhere. Yes. I've been trying to acquire him. He's got a 26% target share. We have him as the wide receiver 21 in this matchup. I think he finishes inside the top 20 over the course of the year. And I think as it becomes rougher for Mark Ingram and some of these other matchups that aren't quite the cakewalks that he's had, it's only going to benefit Marquis Brown who's seeing such a significant amount of the targets. He gives you everything you want. You've got a high target chair.

You've got a young player with explosive play ability so he can win you a week with one Deshawn Jackson style play. And he's the favorite of Lamar Jackson. So I'm actually, you know, I went out and I offered lots of different players for Marquis Brown. Not everybody, not many people budging, but I still would be targeting him in my leagues. What do you guys think about Hollywood? 100% I agree with this. Like this is the, this is your perfect opportunity to buy low. And I think it might be your last one to.

And it's not really that it's buying low, but you may be able to convince the person who has Hollywood Brown to trade them away because he only had two receptions for 49 yards, but he had nine targets. Lamar Jackson's accuracy, it will be suspect from time to time. You saw that this past week with Lamar that game against Miami, that's not who Lamar Jackson is going to be week in and week out. But Hollywood Brown, I think it has become a very high end.

fantasy option that the target share to me i'm is has been very very surprising his ability is not but the target share is i think it just speaks to i'm a big john harball fan and i think it speaks to a well run team when you take you know you have a team we're concerned about wide receivers having value in this offense then you draft a wide receiver in the first round and then you put them in a position to succeed

And then the team builds around that. We don't always see that, right? You have a lot of talented players that just have limited opportunities to showcase themselves. Hollywood just ended up in a great position. And it's not just Harbaugh. It's also Greg Roman. No doubt. That was the perfect hire to coach up Lamar Jackson. And, you know, like when you go back and you realize what has happened, perhaps we all should have been higher on Hollywood Brown.

It's like Sammy Watkins with Tyrod Taylor, his big monster year where he was over 1,000 and 9 touchdowns and 13 games. That was Tyrod and Greg Roman. Yeah, and Hollywood is an incredible player. There's a reason he was a first round draft pick while injured. And being miniaturized. Yeah, because he's lightning. Mark Andrews is our tight-in four on the week. I guess we're buying into a bounceback game for Mark Andrews in this one.

Yeah, I mean, monitor the injury. The injury could be part of the problem last week and this week. But in the tight-in landscape, how do you not start Mark Andrews? And I watched a lot of those snaps last week for Mark Andrews. I can tell you it wasn't all the injury problem. It was a lot of inaccuracy from Lamar Jackson. He was open. He had opportunities. Ball was thrown behind him. I think it's brighter this week if Lamar can get him the rock.

Chiefs at 3-0 take on the Lions who are also undefeated, 2-0 and 1. They are. They should be 3-0. They really should have not tied that Arizona Cardinals. You know, a friend of the show Adam Lefko tweeted this morning how happy he is for Buffalo Bills fans and the Lions fans because these are long-suffering organizations and fan bases. And I think both of their early season success is real. You know, they're...

pretty good teams and the lions are going to lose this week. Yes. That is a fact. The question is by how much right now the chiefs are only favored by six and a half points? I would I would bet on the chiefs. You like the chiefs here. They are six and a half point fairs. The game has a spectacular 54.5 point over under puts the chiefs at 30 points. The lions at 24.

It is always difficult to know when you can turn to Matthew Stafford as a quarterback streamer. Yep. Are you wearing the snapback hat this week is Matthew Stafford on your list of streaming candidates? Not only am I wearing it. I am Matthew Stafford. You're also a member. I'm turning it around. Like it will be a backwards facing cap in honor of Matthew Stafford. I like him a lot this week.

Should have come through this last week against the Eagles. But we had T.J. Droppinson letting everybody down. And I think that he's in a perfect. He's back at home. He's in the dome. I love Stafford this week. You know, the chiefs have really been torched by tight ends. And I know people are afraid of T.J. Dropinson, the, the hawk strap. Since week one, you paid up. You got them. You've been super disappointed. Really hard to play him after the last couple weeks.

I think he's a fine play this week. I agree. The matchup at home against Kansas City. They're going to need to throw the ball. Kansas City has not done well against tight ends. This is a Hawkins. This is a Hockey's week. Oh. Yeah, I tend to agree with you. I think that he would be a candidate for, you know, a shot in the arm start of the week type of guy. I don't know if either of you guys picked him this week, but he's in that category. Patrick Mahomes on pace for 6,000 passing yards.

So because of that fact alone, I will go ahead and start it. I'm going to start him this week. Yep. For what it's worth, the Lions, by the way, giving up 32 and a half points per game to the wide receiver position. That's 22nd in the league. We've got to feel good about Watkins, Robinson Hardman. If you've got them, you're starting them. Yep. They're attached to Patrick Mahomes. And maybe even more so with Damien Williams on the shelf right now, LaShaul McCoy.

banged up. Daryl Williams, sure, I think Dary Williams is a great play if those two guys are out, but that doesn't mean that this team doesn't put more on the back of Mahon. I would expect Lashon McCoy to play. They're saying that the ankle injury is minor. He had the ankle injury last week, still played, had a great game. He was not the workhorse. He got the touchdowns, had the better fantasy game, but you're right, still last week, it was Daryl Williams who had more opportunity.

So this week, I think you could start Daryl Williams and the Sean McCoy. I agree. Assuming that Damian Williams is not yet ready to suit up. Carry on Johnson is our RB12 on our consensus rankings. And you can see all of our rankings use the start sit tool at the fantasy footballers.com on the website. But carry on. Jason, you like him this week?

Yeah, I love him. We'll talk about him a little bit later. Really? Obviously, I'm a big carry-on Johnson fan. Back to the well. Wow. This matchup is very good for him. I think he'll be fine. Kenny Gallaudet, Marvin Jones. You still lean Gallaudet's way in this decision. Would you start both players because of the matchup and the over under? I would. Goladay is, he's locked in as the one. Marvin Jones had the big game over a Hyundai and a touchdown this past week. And the target share for Marvin Jones has.

been going up the last two weeks. So I think you can play Jones. It would be difficult for me to not play Marvin Jones. In this matchup at home against Kansas City, where, you know, the implied team total for the Lions is still pretty good at 24. You know, he's one of those when you're looking at a flex play, I always want my flex play to be able to have a monster game. And Marvin Jones could go out there and completely ball out like he did last week.

All right, the Patriots at 3-0 take on the bills at 3-0. This game's a 42 and a half point over under. I think we're expecting a much more defensive struggle in this game. Patriots with a 24-point implied point total, a 7-point favorites, and the bills are at 17 points. Tom Brady v. Josh Allen. Now, Jason, you're the highest on Josh Allen on the week. He's the QB9 on the season. This is a difficult matchup. The Patriots are...

I would say the best defense in football. Statistically, they've had very easy matchups, but they did what they needed to do. They're literally giving up. This seems like a typo. This has to be a typo, but it's not. 5.9 points to the quarterback, 10 to the running back, 17 to all wide receivers total in a game, which is number one, and then three to the tight-in position. There's another way of saying this. They're giving nothing up to anybody. So are the bills at 3-0?

with the success they've had, are they the team that's going to be able to finally challenge New England's defense? Maybe some of the run-pass ability of Josh Allen can keep them on their heels. What do you think? I don't think they're going to be able to challenge much. I've got Josh Allen higher in the rankings, but he's still not a start. He's not a top 12 guy for me. You look at last year when he came back the second half of the year and was dominant. Josh Allen was running the ball like crazy.

He played New England back then. Granted, it was on the road. 217 yards, one touchdown, two turnovers, only rushed for 30 yards. But there's 5.7 points on the table, Jason, for him. That's what the Patriots are giving up per game. 5.7 points. They lead the league in sacks and interceptions. Yeah, I do not believe that the Buffalo Bills have a good offense of game here at all. But I do think they have got...

a great defense. I'm very interested to see can they slow down this New England offensive machine? I think they do slow it down. I've had a hard time. I've been going back and forth on this game. At the beginning of the week, I kind of thought the Patriots would come in, blow them out, establish themselves at the top of the division. I'm starting to bend myself a little bit more towards this being a low-scoring affair. The Buffalo Bill's defense will be primed. They're at home.

And the Patriots don't have Antonio Brown anymore. They have a banged up Julian Edelman who did practice. But still, there's a little bit of risk there. And when you talk about, hey, Tom Brady's got to move the ball with Josh Gordon and Philip Dorset against this defense, which is one of the best in football right now. I think it could be a little bit of a lower scoring game. We did get news just now that Devin Singletary returned to practice today. Wow. Devin Singletary, Frank Gore, at the running back position for the bills, Michelle.

James White, Rex Burkhead. This game is wild because I'm very excited to watch this game, very fascinated to see how it plays out. And the only player that I'm like, okay, I'll start this guy. It's the guy coming off an injury is Julian Edelman. I'm not playing Sony. I'm not playing Sony just based off of what has happened already to him in his workload. Then you add in that the matchup is ridiculous.

Josh Gordon, I'm lowering my expectations against the Buffalo Bill's defense in Tredavius White. Frank Gore becomes far less appealing for his volume if Devin Singletary is going to play. It's crazy that there are so many fantasy relevant players in this game on both sides of the field, and I really don't want to play any of them. I agree with that. I think that you trust Vegas is overrunner in this game, and Buffalo being at home, it means a lot to me, divisional matchup.