Breakout Picks + Standout Schedules - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/19

Anything? Just sign some bats. I don't care. Just come on. All right. That was today's news and notes presented by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USA.com slash insurance. We're going to take a break and jump into some breakouts. Oh, we did get some Brandon Ayuk news. Status quo. Oh, same situation. That is the news. That is the news. Yeah, a thing that is forgotten in all of the hullabaloo is the 49ers. control the contract of Brandon Ayuk for this year. He can literally just get to the beginning of the season. Just play. And play through the contract. Like that has been one of the outcomes. This is just punk's of Tony Phil coming out like, any news? Nah, no shadow. Go back. Matthew Stafford is back in pans, back in practice.

That's wonderful news because I love drafting Rams and I don't want them if Stafford's not there. No kidding. Did you get to see the little conversation between Sean McVey and Kyle Shanahan about the Rams? I did. Yeah. The Rams trading for Stafford. Yes. And how like Shanahan and the 49ers were interested but they thought they had like another day. Uh-huh. I mean, it sounded so fantasy football to me. It was great, but it also, like, the thing that was revealing to me was when Shanahan specifically said, he's like, yeah, you know you like a guy he's good until you actually like dig in and spend two weeks deep diving his tape and you're like, oh my gosh, this guy's really good talking about Stafford. Loved, like this was totally Mick Bay poking the bear because he was like, hey, Kyle, how'd you, how'd you feel about when we traded for Stafford? Yeah. And then.

Shanahan talking about and then Shanahan getting a text like late at night that's like if you want Stafford you better call him like right now and he's like oh no based on my information I got some time and then signed yeah yeah that's wild it's funny it's kind of how like when we make trades Jason sometimes I'm like who got tanked out how'd you feel about that trade I made yeah breakouts All right, you can see all of our consensus breakout picks in the Ultimate Draft Kit at Ultimate DraftKit.com. Today we're talking some individual breakout picks, players that could become that fantasy darling or superstar or game changer that we individually have some strong convictions about. We wanted to share them with you. And I'm going to let one of you guys go first. So it looks like Mike is getting the call. I will jump in. And we had the conversation earlier about.

Rookies are a good bet for fantasy football. This year is a little wacky because you have Marvin Harrison, Malik Neighbors, and Romo Dunesday all being drafted way higher than rookies normally are. But Brian Thomas Jr. of the Jacksonville Jaguars is being drafted exactly where we want him to be drafted, which is on Sleeper as the wide receiver 46 in the middle of the ninth round. Other platforms he's going even later. It took a while. for things to start percolating for Brian Thomas over the off season. I mean, well, he was a really high draft pick, 23rd overall. He was the fourth wide receiver. He's coming out of LSU with Malik neighbors. It's like, you know, these two, they're buds and like talking each other up. As the noise had been building here for Brian Thomas Jr., Malik was jumped on social media. He's like, yeah, I'm not surprised at all. And it's just let's all remember where we.

how we got to where we are, 17 receiving touchdowns last year. That's the most at a Power 5 school since Devonte Smith in 2020. Like he killed at the go route. I loved, you know, just taking pot shots at him because when I was watching him, I saw a lot of basket catching. So I was calling him basket catch, Brian, which was it was not taking away. I didn't like that. It was not taking away from the player. It was just like, hey, here's something that you could absolutely improve on. But. This is all about ADP and the situation of Trevor Lawrence may not be the golden god that he was promised to be for the NFL and for fantasy football. But he's still fine. Like he's still a quarterback that I would like my rookie wide receivers playing for. There's a bunch of really crappy situations out there. And like Gabe Davis got the money. We'll see if he actually gets the production. But the drumbeat of Brian Thomas.

from nothing, nothing until just a real steady ramp up of, you know, he looks unguardable, all of this, and just comparing him to the other rookie shots that I could take. Like Lama Conkie, great player, didn't have the draft capital that Brian Thomas had, doesn't have the offensive situation that Brian Thomas has. And they're going kind of around the right, the same spot. So to me, Brian Thomas here. as he's like a go-to rookie that I think you should be trying to get in more drafts than not. This is a great comparison to Rome Adunze. They're both great players. Even if you think Adunzei's better, you talked about earlier you like taking a shot, a talented first round rookie wide receivers late in your draft. Adunzei is almost all of that, except he's not late in your draft. Brian Thomas Jr. is all of that. He's a ninth round pick on average, and that is, that's great.

Yeah, I was a huge fan of the collegiate film for Brian Thomas. And I was really, like, we got a whiteboard in our main office where the three of us work. And we jot down early, my guy thoughts. And Brian Thomas was on the board for a long time. But I was disappointed by the camp buzz. And it was nice to finally see some stuff coming to light. The opportunities right in front of him. Yeah. And 29 rookie wide receivers have been drafted as top 50 guys. 60% of them have exceeded. their ADP expectation being the ADP expectation is where you're drafted. Do you fulfill that? Do you get the points that that player normally scores? And I mean, guys, LSU has been wide receiver you here giving us, you know, just true elite elite players. And also TMJ. Yeah, I was going to bring it up, Teres Marshall. That was always my fear. First round LSU wide receivers. Thank you. All right.

Their hit rate is currently very good. Yeah, no, no question. Jason, time to shine some light. All right. I'm going to talk about a player going only one round ahead of the rookie, you know, dart throw of Brian Thomas Jr. This was a rookie last year who actually kind of almost broke out. And unfortunately, he's going to miss the first half of the season. I'm talking about Rushie Rice, wider street for the Kansas City Chiefs. Oh, wait. It looks like he's not going to miss the first half of the season. Season's about to kick off. We have no news of an impending suspension. The NFL often lets legal proceedings, you know, go out, carry all the way through before those things happen. He is so low in ADP. It would not have happened this way if he didn't spend the entire off season with the assumption that he is.

you know, going to miss a big chunk, probably not going to be there to start the season. So no one drafted him. He became a late round pick because you just didn't know. Well, now drafts are right around the corner. People are doing drafts this week, next week. And he's sitting there in the eighth round on Sleeper. Rushie Rice, if you look at last year, rookie season, he came along slowly. The first part of the season, the first nine weeks, they had their buy week in week 10. The first nine weeks. He was involved. He was a package player. He was out there a little bit. Targeted on 13% of his routes. Once the byweek hit, he became a full-time player for this offense, targeted on 25% of his routes. He overtook Kelsey. Remember how Kelsey had this great first half of the season and kind of a really lousy second half of the season? Well, it was inverted with Rushie Rice. Rushie Rice became the number one target for Patrick Mahomes in the offense. How good was he?

From week 12 on, he was the wide receiver 9 in points per game. 14.9 already last year, he averaged 9.3 targets, 7.2 receptions, and 86 receiving yards. If you extrapolate that out, just in case you don't realize how good those numbers are, that would be 122 reception season. That's what he did the second half of the year as a rookie once he was a full-time player. And now you just look at all the camp reports. He's the dude, like he is the one. I'm excited for Xavier Worthy. I mean, I'm really, really hot and bothered for Patrick Mahomes. I think he's going to be the number one quarterback in six point leagues this year. The offense should score a lot more. I think he's got more weapons. But Rushie Rice is really good. His yards after catch was unbelievable. 70% of his receiving yards came after the catch. They manufacture him good touches. He's on the field. He is the number one target, I think, in this offense.

I think it's not inconceivable to say this season he will out target Travis Kelsey. That's within the very clear path of, you know, believability. And he's going in the eighth round. So if that happens and he's the number one target for Patrick Mahomes going into his sophomore year in the eighth round, that's a breakout to me. The last report we had on the legal situation because it's still going to hang as a not something that should drive him this far down in ADP. but it's going to hang as a risk factor that you're going to have there. The last report that we had was that the NFL had not yet met with the Chiefs or Rice, which means it's very unlikely that the disciplinary case will be concluded at least by the Thursday night football kickoff game. And they don't normally put players on the, what is it, the commissioner's exempt list unless those have generally been reserved towards.

um like domestic violence situation so right now the legal matter the legal matter is kind of just TBD and you know it was a uh it was an aggravated assault and collision causing bodily injury charge and then he had the assault of a photographer but the photographer did not think that one went away right he did not press charges so that one is not i mean that can always be again the leak is still rule on that yeah because it's the Personal conduct. Correct. So just to give you, because like we haven't talked about that situation in so long, we're just kind of sitting here in ambiguity. That ambiguity is leading towards him playing right now. And, you know, whether that could mean a mid-season problem, I just don't know. Yeah, I mean, look at, look at whatever it was yesterday the day before, their preseason game. He had four receptions in short work with Mahomes. Yeah, everything about Rice has only been, the concern has only been for.

the legal situation and possibly missing games for me. Yeah, there's no other reason that you would even worry about his involvement. It's wild. Like that he has gone to the eighth and it hasn't really trickled up. He felt like a player that that made sense at the beginning of, you know, best ball drafts are happening, these types of things. But then as you're getting closer to the season, I would have thought he would have slid up here into. like the sixth, maybe even the fifth round of it becomes a, it becomes worth the risk for your team that this player, he's going to be great. I mean, he is a top 20 type of wide receiver to me, but just has this risk of maybe he's going to miss game. So if you can get him still, even in the seventh round, I mean, that's an unbelievable steal.

All right. Speaking of the seventh round, my breakout pick is Brock Bowers rookie tied into the Las Vegas Raiders. He is going in the late seventh round as of right now. Are you a Minshu guy or an O'Connell guy? I believe that O'Connell affords us more upside if he matures and is able to do what he does well. But Minchu is more stable from a week-to-week basis. Bowers is an 11th round pick on Yahoo right now. And Brock Bowers is, again, we want to reiterate how I still think it's undersold how elite he was in college. It's the best college tight end we've ever seen. He led Georgia powerhouse in receiving for three years. He had the most receptions by a freshman, not of tight ends, but, you know, all of them. Like AJ Green, he tied AJ Green. He had 13 touchdowns as a freshman. This was a team that had.

Ladd McConkey and Adonai Mitchell and George Pickens and Jermaine Burton and James Cook and Zemir White. And these are all players on these rosters where it was Brock Bowers. So also the only two-time Mackey Award winner ever. So I think they're going to use him all over the field all of the time. You don't draft the player with the draft capital they did with Brock Bowers. I know the team like and not use him. And this team looked at it as an absolute steal. We were surprised he went to the Raiders. That surprise was from the Raiders as well when he dropped that far. It was a best player available. We don't need a tight end desperately, but he's here. We got to take him. He was only in line 39% of the time in 2023. This is a slot wide receiver. There's a dude that can dominate in the screen game. He is an athlete where the ball, if you get it to him, you're going to have a great deal of success.

So far in the preseason, at least in week one, nine out of 14 snaps. There were two tight ends on the field. He had 11 snaps lined up all over the field, five in line, three in the back field, two out wide, one in the slot. I just think that Brock Bowers, this is a cream rises to the top. And at tight end, the nice thing is that a small amount of great plays is enough to make you better than most tight ends in the game. And you don't want to put your... bet on, okay, he has to score 12 touchdowns to be successful. He has to be Kyle Rudolph around the goal line. Like the athleticism of Brock Bowers to me and why he is enticing is because two plays can be enough at the tight end position. George Kittle-esque. Absolutely. Kittle is a great example. You know, Mark Andrews, we saw him very early on making big high yards per catch plays.

Bowers, all reports have been, he's an uncoverable player. He's a mismatch on everybody that tries to line up on him. You don't get DBs on your tight end very often. And if they are, you got them. They're tiny and he maneuvers them. And a linebacker's too slow. So I just think Brock Bowers breaks the game. And his draft capital would have been a lot different if the situation was a lot more attractive. Yeah. So I am a staunch. opponent of drafting rookie tight ends. I'll take my L on Sam Laporta, but that wasn't the one you drafted last year anyways. That was the one more often you were picking up off of waivers. You drafted Dalton Cicade too high. When I look at Brock Bowers, I agree with everything Andy just said about the actual talent and the ability, the prospect himself, and the concept that he could end up having a special season. Could end up having a special season to me is totally fine.

if I'm on Yahoo and I'm in the 11th round. He can be my tight-in. I don't usually draft two tight-ins. I don't want to do that. He's the exception. But like if I'm looking at all these platforms where he's in the seventh, I mean, there's just, you know, he's going ahead of just, I mean, some of the guys we just talked about that, you know, that we have as breakout potential candidates, really hard for me to take him there. So I think he's platform specific for me. I would love to. I would love him to break out. It's just tough when you go, okay, the Aden O'Connell, Gardner, Minchu. You know he can't be the number one target. That's impossible with Devante Adams there. He could be number two, though. He could. Jacoby Myers is there. He's still one of two tight ends. He's sharing a little bit of tight end duty, kind of the Dawson Knox issue for Dalton Kincaid last year. It's just too costly in the seventh for me. Andy, where are you at with Brock Bowers? He's a breakout pick for me. Okay.

specifically talking about you're drafting on the sleeper platform because in ADP he will be showing. So right now and a half, you know, he's going at the back of the seventh. Then David Najoku and Jake Ferguson are just a couple picks after him. Are you... I would rather have... Your level of confidence is it taking Brock Bowers before those guys? You're good going into the season with just him. I'm definitely good going into the season with just Brock Bowers. That's my titan and just starting him and seeing what I've got. I feel like the... The bigger comparison here is, you know, Kyle Pitts, two to four rounds higher than Brock Bowers. When you talk about athleticism and upside and an offense, you know, Ferguson, I still think is going to be somewhat touchdown dependent. Yeah, he will. And if you are out on Voldemort, then this is your pivot option. Like I'm looking at ADP comparison here at average position overall on our ADP comparison chart is,

Nojoku 806, Bowers 9.05. So, you know, ninth round Brock Bowers with a bunch of cap tight ends behind him in the draft. It might be your last shot at taking somebody that has kind of explosive weak winning potential, not just like four or five points of game potential. Right. Okay. But I know you guys like Ferguson a lot. That's just a belief in the offense. And, you know, they don't have a lot of weapons. I don't have any problem with that if you want to wait on him. So we'll take a break. We'll jump into some mailbag. Let me ask a question, though, before we jump in a mailback, Jason. Yeah. You know, you're very vocal about your tight-in rookie situation. You know. I don't do it. Even though Sam LaPorte was the number one tight-in last year as a rookie. Yeah. So in the last one year, a rookie led the NFL. Yeah, the number one rookie drafted last year was a bad pick. Anyways. And Don Quakeet. Go on. What's your question? My question is that.

Is this something that is now kind of like tattooed on your skin or is this something where if Brock Bowers comes out and gives you a top five performances here that this narrative is going to become different? No, it's certainly something that would change. This is, you know, if you look back at how we drafted 10 years ago versus how we draft five years ago versus how we draft now, things change. The NFL changes and we adapt. We always say on this show you want to stay water. You've got to be able to change. You don't want to just, you know, have everything in stone. I used to never be willing to draft undersized wide receivers. They didn't work for fantasy. Now, Tank Dell is a my guy because the NFL has, the NFL has changed. And so thankfully, you know, I prefer when it's easy and you don't have to adapt to change. And thankfully, that will be what happens this year. Okay. Into the mailbag we go. Mailbag.

Very nice. Juan in Toronto. Oh, ponchoir. Start three wide receivers full PPR. Devante Adams or Derek Henry. Ooh. So it's a three wide full PPR. I think you go Adams there then. Has your opinion of Adams because of Gardner starting, Mike? Like is there any adjustment to your rankings? I haven't moved him. It's, but I believe it will be more consistent than if it were O'Connell. Adams is a really interesting discussion, in my opinion, in general, because we've had a lot of conversations in soft season around where Justin Jefferson belongs in drafts because of confidence in his quarterback and the team in that situation. If you pull NFL players, and one of the reasons we rest on Jefferson being fine is he's the best in the best in the best. If you pull the NFL, the answer is Devante Adams. That is the answer from NFL players by majority, is that Devante Adams is the best wide receiver in football.

And so we look at it through a slightly different lens. We look at longevity and the age and dynasty and all of that stuff. But I think the NFL still looks at Devante Adams as a top. If he's not one, he's two in the eyes of most players. So when you look at that argument of, well, talent rises and it works out. I mean, like for him to do what he did last year with how catastrophic the team was, it is, it's risky with the age and the age cliff. But at the same time, I wonder if some of the same upside exists in believing in the talent. Yeah, it does. The talent is there. I think we have the data, right, the top 100 players, whatever. Tyreek was number one, so I don't know where Devante Adams went in, but he's awesome. And I've talked down Devante Adams quite a bit from where he's being drafted just because you're older, you've got a quarterback issue, even though he was the wider receiver 11 last year. It was very inconsistent.

But that doesn't mean Devante Adams is a bad pick. My answer to this question, if I'm playing a three wide receiver full PPR, I'm on Adam's side. I'm on the Devante Adams side, and you know I like Derek Henry. This isn't me saying, you know, Adams is worthless. This is just me worried about when he's going at that like one, two turn area over some of these younger up and coming wide receivers, I just don't want to either one of these players, Adams or Henry, could be at their end. And we just don't know. I don't want to hold the bag with those compared to younger guys.

All right, Gio and Baltimore wants to know one point perception keeper league, Breece Hall in exchange for their fourth round pick or Kyron in exchange for the 15th round pick. That's fun. I'm Kyron. That's too big a gap for me. Fourth rounders are still really. Fourth rounders right now, if I were to read you the fourth round by ADP, you would be giving up. A digs, Jacobs, Devante Smith, Lamar Jackson, Malik Neighbors, James Cook, Joe Mixin, Rashad White, Trey McBride. That would be, it's hard to attach one of those names with Chiron and not accept that trade for Briece. Yeah, if you were to trade Brees Hall for James Cook and Kyron, I would do that. There's a world where I'm not sure you do that with Malik Neighbors and. No, I mean, it depends on obviously who it is, but there are fourth rounders there that are worth it. It's a, it's a worthy.

I mean, there is, Kyron outscored Breece Hall last 10 points per game basis. So if they're both healthy this year, he could outscore Breece Hall this season. Yeah, the drumbeat on Braylon Allen is still very, very. Yeah, my dude. Yeah, I mean, he is, he's profiling as a as a bona fide as a tank backup running back that should be drafted, especially by Breeze managers. with, you know, obviously Brees would have to go down for this to be a, to factor in. Like I have zero concern about Brees's workload, but it's nice to know the hierarchy. What's crazy is that every single year, there are multiple rookie running backs that are impactful for fantasy football, usually multiple two plus that end up in the top 12. And this year, there's like no, no one that you're taking a shot on because they're all backups or.

Jonathan Brooks is dealing with, you know, he's not even going to start the season. So it's like it's the weirdest rookie running back year I can remember. There's literally no one that you're drafting right now. Everyone is a waiver wire pickup guy when an injury ahead of him happens. Yeah, that is, it's tough. I mean, and maybe this will be one of the years where that's just not true also. You know what I mean? Like I know averages are averages, but it's always based on the real players and the real opportunities. But injuries. I mean, injuries change everything. Yeah, it'll happen. It could be Braille and Allen in week two. You know what I mean? If, if Brees goes down, it's the confidence you'd have in Braylin Allen in New York in that office would be great. That would be a full fab dump. Yes, it would. All right. On Tuesday, we're covering sleepers on Wednesday, busts and values. On Thursday, we're debuting our take swap segment. See how that goes. And then Friday, a mock draft and Saturday, the Megalus show, which.

If you're wanting to be there, it's ballerslive.com, presented by Sleeper. Come and see us in Los Angeles right before the NFL season. And if you're not able to be there, it will be the Monday episode of the show. You'll be able to view it on YouTube and get that content that way. So that is going to do it for today's episode of the podcast. Shout out to the Ducers over there. We kind of left him alone today. Looks like the Falcon is, oh, he's here. Yeah, must not eat in today. See ya. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join thefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FF ballers.