AFC West Breakdown + Vegas Super Bowl Picks

breath because we shouldn't even be talking about wide receivers in Denver. Certainly someone could emerge. I mean, I remember the days where Joe Flacco threw it deep as well. Those, those were neat. The Steve Smith years were awesome. Yes, but it's been a long time. And the question is, was that because of his weapons or is that because now he is much more of a dink and dunk passer? John Brown. I lean that, you know, which means Deshaun or Emmanuel. I'm not as bullish as you, Andy, on, you know, I've seen the same videos.

But you see those with everyone. You know, you see them running against air, not in pads, looking sharp, looking great. And I think that there's another world to get to when it comes to being on the field in contact, all of that. And so I lean Deshaun for the short stuff. But if you want to throw your pick out for who has the best chance to really emerge as a relevant, a very, very good fantasy option,

I think it's got to be Cortland Sutton because if someone comes through, you want a red zone option. He's the big bodied guy. He looked great in spurts. He disappeared in spurts. But a lot of what's being said around Denver is that it looks like he's ready to step up into that number one role. He himself assumes he is going to be the number one option. And if that's the case, if he's stepping up to be the new Demarius Thomas, hopefully someday they get the new Peyton Manning.

Yeah, I mean, I have a – my problem with Sutton is that I wanted him to do that. I mean, all these same refrains were there for the second half of the season. It was time for Sutton to step up and be the next to Marius Thomas. It still is rookie season. Sure. But it was disappointing. Yeah. Was there anybody happy with – I mean, he was – No. People were swarming to pick up Cortland Sutton for his opportunity, and that was without Emmanuel Sanders.

And so if this is going to be an offense predicated on running the ball and having a rejuvenated defense, I don't, I want him to succeed. I want him to be great. I don't know if the volume is going to be there for him. Yeah, that's fair. Do you have any interest at all in Noah Fant? You have first round draft pedigree for a tight end. It still is rookie tight end. I don't. But, I mean, what we have seen before is Joe Flacko hyper-target his tight-ins. And now he does a very athletically gifted one.

I don't doubt that he will have four games this year where you're like, man, he should be picked up on the next week's waiver wire. I'm just worried about the weeks in between them. Okay. I stand there as well. I don't think this is a great offense as a whole. I'm not super waiting to get my piece of it. And when I get my piece, it's not going to be for the rookie tight end. I think the Denver Broncos will be surprisingly better this year. Well, I mean, look, Vegas is with you when it comes to, you know, you brought them up in the same breath as the dolphins.

right, who are like 300 to 1 because we're not sure what's going on. But they put them kind of in the category of Tennessee and Carolina that level of odds to win. I think it could be a 9 and 17 this year going up from 6 and 10. So just my, but Philip Lindsay, Roy Freeman. That's where I was going to go. Are you afraid to click the draft button? Are you afraid to take Philip Lindsay at his price point right now? We've talked so much about him. He said literally, I think it was yesterday, he will be 100%.

Yeah, he said he's going to be 100% for the start of camp with the wrist. He has said he feels 100%, but it's also up to the trainers. Not a leg injury, though. I mean, similar things with David Johnson coming back. Right. Obviously, a significant injury. Would you rather draft Royce Freeman at his current average draft position of 804 or Philip Lindsay at what is now being shown at 408? He's dropped a lot. If I have to...

Take one of them. I'll still take Lindsay there. Yeah. Now that Lindsay's falling almost the fifth round, I would take Lindsay. Yeah, I would, I would too. That's what? It's been Freeman all off season, but when you talk about 408, I think I'm in now. I think I'm back in. Yeah, he started the season. Let's move that back up. Up in the third, like high third. Can I? Let's move his ADP up. What show was it that we just talked about it, Brooks? No, I know, but which one was it? Like two weeks. I'm trying to figure out what's killing this ADP.

That was Saturday show, I believe. Was it? I think so. Oh, okay. Maybe it's not me then. I think that's Sandprint Live show. I'm so sorry. All right. Any other storylines from Denver? Are we moving on? Moving on. All right. It's hard knocks time. The Raiders, four and 12 wrapping up the AFC West. They'll start at home against Denver and Kansas City this year. John Gruden and company. And then Minnesota and then the Colts? Yeah, that is right. That's not.

That is not a good looking first four weeks. Denver, Kansas City, at Minnesota, at Indianapolis. On paper, a rejuvenated, revamped, transformed team. At the high level, and you guys, we can get into all the players, at the highest level, what happened to this team to me, the biggest problem that this team has was, and what made Derek Carr go from MVP candidate to short-range BB gun was,

the offensive line. This was a top five unit that dropped way down, assimily fell off a cliff, and they couldn't keep Derek Carr on his feet. Carr got skittish. He started preferring the shorter intermediate routes to taking shots downfield because historically, he's a good deep passer. But when you barely do it and you're skittish and afraid and not making clutch throws, that's what broke this team down.

I don't know how you do better than getting a guy Antonio Brown, Tyrell Williams, and Josh Jacobs to fix that problem. I mean, you know, Marshawn's gone. You get the more versatile Jacobs in the backfield. Jordy Nelson's gone. You get the younger Tyrell Williams is a deep threat. To me, it's all about the offensive line. Can the offensive line provide enough time for a car to be an effective pastor to bring up the fantasy value of everyone around? What do you guys think?

Look, I think Antonio Brown being there is going to help the offensive line in a sense. The fact that Carr will have someone to go to. Carr is a super late round guy that you know how there's those guys. Don't do it. Look, there are those guys you're fine being wrong about where it's like, you know, look, look, if he's great. This is one where I'm not, I don't think Carr has a great year, but I'm not.

I am not super confident in that at all. He's got the weapons, both at running back and at wide receiver, to put up enough, you know, enough fantasy points. He's got to play Kansas City a couple times, other great offenses. I think Derek Carr could be a surprise late-round guy that ends up as a successful fantasy option this year. They also added Ryan Grant to the offense, who was like a free agent pickup.

last off season by Baltimore wink wink to the Colts. And then Marcel Aitman flashed last year. J.J. Nelson was in addition. They still have J. them Richard in the backfield. I think the offense is probably underrated, Mike. I really do. Okay. Like you said, everything looks great on paper. Looks great on paper. But I don't, I just, I don't believe in Derek Carr as a quarterback. I don't think he's that good. Okay. So what does that translate? Then carry that.

Belief into Antonio Brown. Not to Carr. Carr's not being drafted in a position where you have to justify his failing or succeeding. Brown is. I mean, Brown is being punished in a lot of rankings because of the transition from Big Ben to the Raiders, even though he is the guy, even though he is the best receiver in football from a skill standpoint. Yeah, and I won't argue with those points, but we've seen great wide receivers many, many times have bad quarterback.

play behind them and it's car is not the worst but i just don't think he can help out antonio brown anywhere close to the level that that you're hoping for now his draft price what's interesting about him so i'm looking at fantasy football calculator right now i mean he's sandwiched literally right between juju and mike evans and would you would you rather have antonio brown for uh with derrick car

as a quarterback or do you want Mike Evans with James Winston? So I've gone back and forth on these two guys specifically. And then right after that is T.Y. Hilton.

Right. And I do land on the Antonio Brown side. I think that while Antonio Brown is not going to be the number one wide receiver anymore, I've still got him with an astronomical target volume. What won't be there the way it was in Pittsburgh is the touchdown numbers. I mean, Antonio Brown has always been a double-digit touchdown guy last year. What do you have 15 touchdowns? I mean, that's not going to happen. So I think the ceiling might be off a little bit.

But I mean, the difference between Carr and James Winston in real life is not that much. You forget Carr two years ago. He was a top 10 fantasy quarterback, which is crazy to think about when he had the weapons there. So I think Antonio Brown, I'm certainly not taking him over Juju, but I would take him over Mike Evans. Okay. Josh Jacobs, how many passes does he catch this year? What's his fantasy ceiling? How are you looking at Jacobs? Isaiah Crowell went out, got hurt.

They had picked them up. Instead, they have to replace him with crampus. Doug Martin is back again. Ah, yes. But this is Josh Jacobs backfield. Yeah. He should have every opportunity to contribute in both facets, which means that, you know, this is not, even if you don't believe in the offense, even if you don't believe in the defense, the game script, if you think is negative, if you're a past catching running back like Jacobs is, you should be pretty consistent and pretty relevant. I mean, look at Lindsay would be a very, Lindsay's a very interesting comp here.

Because the Broncos were 6 and 10 last year. And Lindsay's not somebody that you would look at as a prototypical, like, you know, he's not got to carry it 250 times. We've never seen Jacobs take a workload at Alabama. So, but let's say they go 6 and 10. Maybe they're not a good team. Philip Lindsay's still had a great year. Right. Right now I have Josh Jacobs catching about 40 passes, which is, that's not elite. It's a good number. But it would be perfectly acceptable.

The problem for Jacobs is just you're buying into the idea that he was a first round running back, has a pass catching skill set, because they have Jalen Richard. He's still on the team. And last year, when the game script flipped upside down, it was Jalen Richard, just getting absolutely peppered with targets. So do they take that jump and they say, okay, we're just going to play Josh Jacobs on all three downs?

Does he just get worked into some passing plays on first and second down? And then Richard is a bigger thorn than you're expecting. I think the fact that they used Jail and Richard so much last year and then turned around and said, yeah, we're going to spend a first rounder on a running back. And we're going to go get Isaiah Crowell says what they want. And what they want is not Jailen Richard. Well, yeah, they don't want him to be the grinder. But last year, 81 targets, 68 receptions for Jailen Richard. Those are real receptions for a running back. Right, for sure.

That also says Derek Carr is looking to that position. The offense can utilize it. But I don't think it's going to be Richard. I think it's going to be Josh Jacobs. He worried me before the draft because I thought he was going to be drafted as a committee guy. But the combination of him being given a first round draft capital and then having Isaiah Cruel go out to a season-ending injury says he's got the shot of being a true three-down back. They'll mix in Richard. They'll mix in crampus. But he's going to.

He's going to take the lead of this offense from the backfield, for sure. The first-round draft capital nearly assures heavy involvement. Yes, it should. They couldn't really throw the ball anywhere other than to Richard last year. So it'll be interesting to see. That is your AFC West. I want to get into the mailbag a little bit. This show, if you've been listening to it, either a short while or a long while, it's all about you, your league.

You, the fantasy player. We're trying to get you as much information as possible to make you a better fantasy player year to year, but also enjoy your league more. Enjoy running a league if you're a commissioner. And so we like to get in and answer as many questions as we can here and over at Join the Foot. Let's jump into the Mailbag. Mailbag. All right. You'll like this one, Jason. Keith and Albuquerque, New Mexico.

We are getting rid of kickers and replacing them with an extra flex position. Congratulations, Keith. What do you guys think the ideal bench size should be in order to keep some talent on the waiver wire and to deal with biweek? So if you have a league where you have an extra flex spot, I guess he's wondering how big should the bench be to properly populate the waiver wire. So he says he currently has a sixth bench.

And they do have the IR spot as well. So I would just keep it at six. Yeah, I'm 100% fine going to five bench an IR. I think five bench and an IR is great. Six is also fine. I would really, it's a matter of your league, right? Because I think that the more into it your league is the, if you've got 11 other owners that really take this serious, it's one of those home leagues that, you know.