AFC West Breakdown + Vegas Super Bowl Picks

I wasn't going after his weight when I was attacking him. I was going after he can't do certain things. Now, maybe you're thinking, okay, he adds weight and he can pass protect better. But pass protecting is not just size. I mean, we've seen Jaquiz Rogers, who is not a large guy. He's been an excellent pass protector. It's a technique and a mentality that Ronald Jones just doesn't have. I hate one running back to put on weight. It doesn't pay off in...

The way that I look at it in all of my research, running back's adding weight. You think it sounds awesome, but Ronald Jones' calling card was speed. It was agility. And now he's 13 pounds heavier? That's a lot of extra weight. And we had some friends who were at the sports con event this past weekend saying, yes, he's put on weight. He doesn't look like he's in putting, adding football.

weight he looks he doesn't look like he's in football shape he is looking a little couch potatoe so like i cannot neither confirm i have also put on 13 pounds of muscle recently i think couch potato we wait is the worst descriptor you could ever have for weight like that is just humiliating levels of weight like that's a new category but no this is this is not good to me put on some roly-poly weight

All right. I do want to bring this up because, you know, the listeners, they probably want to hear us weigh in a little bit about a rumored 18 game schedule. Do you want to talk about it for a second? Do we have time for that? I just want to call it stupid. Yeah. I mean, the 18 game schedule, I'm fine with that. But the proposal is that there's a 16 game cap on how many games a player can play in the regular season according to the NFL's proposal. That is the NFL's preposterous.

proposal that makes no sense that means that means 12% of the games out there you're going to have a backup quarterback playing that that that changes competition that changes ticket buying fandom everything i mean look you're going to if you're in fantasy you're definitely going to have a lot more to track and to keep your eyes on when it comes to matchups and i don't think it's going to start since i can't imagine it happens either

All right, that's it for today's news and notes with fantasy football gearing up. Now's the time to ask your commission if you're using the correct, the right, the most flexible platform. They should use Sleeper. Check out the Sleeper app, download it today. All right, we've got a lot to talk about. Let's get started. Let's get divisional. All right, we are traveling to the AFC West today on the show. We're going to break down everything that has gone on with the Chiefs, Chargers, Broncos, and Raiders.

Talk about our expectations for these teams, hopefully illuminate, hopefully bring to mind some things that will help your fantasy drafts. Talk about expectations. We're going to start with the 12 and 4 Chiefs who just barely won the division over the Chargers last year, both teams at 12 and 4. The big story around the Chiefs this off season, there's been several for fantasy purposes. Yes.

Damien Williams, will he be the guy? Is he capable of being a productive NFL and fantasy running back? Obviously, all the legal situation with Tyree Kill, will Patrick Mahomes have his favorite weapon on the field to continue what he did last year? I mean, Patrick Mahomes was unconscious all year long. I mean, four touchdowns, four touchdowns, four touchdowns, four touchdowns, six touchdowns. He single-handedly won leagues.

So will the cold-blooded Sammy Watkins be able to stay healthy this season and step up for fantasy, perhaps in the absence of Tyree Kill? A lot of questions. I agree. I saw you retweeted a little bit more of the wisdom of the Watkins. I had not been following Sammy Watkins' Twitter account, and that was a mistake. I immediately started following if you want Jack Handy level inspiration.

Follow Sammy Watkins' Twitter account. It's fantastic. Let me ask you this question at the top, and this was an offense that was obviously incredible last year, ranked third in passing yards per game, first in points per game at 35 points per game. You have the best tight end in football with Travis Kelsey. You had...

arguably the best wide receiver in football with Tyree Kill last year. This year they go out and they spend a second round draft pick on Mikol Hardman. They spend a sixth round draft pick on Darwin Thompson running back. And they bring in Carlos Hyde because Kareem Hunt is gone. Spencer Ware, gone. Chris Conley gone. So let me start at the top, though. Expectations for Patrick Mahomes. How much do they take a hit? Like regardless of whether you would take...

Patrick Mahomes high in fantasy drafts, which I know we are not spinning up on Mahomes. Right. The likelihood that he doesn't throw 50 touchdown passes is very, very high. Even with a full kind of allotment of weapons, that kind of a season doesn't just happen over and over and over again, at least hasn't, historically. Could. I mean, it's a brand new season. It could happen, but it's low odds. How much does not have any Tyree Kil for four or six games affect where you think that production ends up for...

Patrick Mahomes, or do you think he just kind of pivots and figures it out? And it's DeMarcus Robinson and Hardman and those other players that take up the mantle. I think he can figure it out, but it's still going to be a negative hit to him. And just to put some historical connotation in there, Andy. Three times in the history of the NFL, only three times as a quarterback thrown 50 or more touchdowns.

Now, that was a season where Patrick Mahomes would be worth the early pick because he's providing you such an edge at the quarterback position. He's outscoring everybody. So, yes, he's worth an early round, but he's going to progress. And if you say, well, you know he's going to throw 40, only 13 times in the history of the NFL has a quarterback thrown 40 or more touchdowns. So that is also improbable. I mean,

Maybe Mahomes is different. Maybe he's that different. And we're already witnessing a Hall of Fame career. But call me insane. But I'm going to look at the analytics and the probability of him throwing 40 or more touchdowns. It's just not high, especially when you over-succeed the way that he did and losing Tyreek. Maybe Mikul, the second round pick, Mikul Harman, can fill in for a while. But he's still a rookie. So I'm not.

expecting that to be incredible productions. I'm out on Mahomes at his current draft cost. But he said all that. He still is the number one quarterback for me. So if he's somehow falling because you play in a league where everyone's, I'm not touching a quarterback until the 10th round. In that fifth or sixth round, sure, then I'll take a look at Patrick Mahomes. Two of his first three games.

are really, really tough, Jacksonville and Baltimore. And you assume that those first few games are where he's not going to have Tyree Kill. So the people that are grabbing. He actually threw zero touchdowns against Jacksonville in his game in Jacksonville last year. Right. So grabbing Mahomes early at the sacrifice of your running back or your wide receiver pick and then getting off to perhaps a slower Mahomes start, even if he finishes the year is the number one.

You're going to be hurting your fantasy roster. Yeah, I still think the odds are that, I mean, we haven't ranked that way. That'll finish number one at the position. He's still an engine by which all of the pieces around him exist with great fantasy joy. You know, whether it's looking at Kelsey and what he is for the offense or looking at Damien Williams, all signs are pointing to a heavy workload for Damien Williams. There hasn't been any indication that, you know, if he doesn't do it,

on the field maybe there'll be changes, but he should have every opportunity. And it's not like a running back getting an opportunity on a middling offense. It means something different when you're in Kansas City. If you get the opportunity in Kansas City, it means that you're a top 10 running back. I went back and I watched Damien Williams and looked at some of him in Kansas City. And the reality is the same as what I thought then. I don't think he did anything special very often. But the way that they just.

get the guy open in space. He is a decent pass catching back who is fast. And those two qualities, when you get them in space and have a really good design by Andy Reed, I think Damien Williams is going to succeed in this offense. If he's been given the green light to be the guy, I think you want the guy. I mean, you want the number one running back on...

the best offense. Kansas City running backs had 12 receiving touchdowns last year. That number will come down. That is as many as 11 NFL teams combined. That's part of why Mahomes' touchdown total was so high is that even the rushing production or the running back production, part of that came through a ton of receiving touchdowns. If there was a, you know, average draft position-wise, a ton of chiefs are being drafted. Kelsey at 203, Damien Williams at 208.

Mahomes at 308. Tyreeks right now at 406. That'll change depending on the suspension. Sammy Watkins at 603. Hide at 901. Hardman at 1001. So is there a favorite value pick for you on the Chiefs and maybe a dark horse pick in terms of fantasy production? If you're still getting Damien Williams for 208, I'm going to smash that in immediately. But we just had a bet me against Jason. I don't see him staying there.

as the hype machine builds and builds and builds. He'll be at worst the very beginning of the second round. Yeah, and I've said this before, but, you know, as Sammy Watkins stays and now drops in the sixth round, I think he is a good option. Clearly, Mahomes can support a secondary wide receiver. We saw it in. How do you catch with those pads on your fingertips? He gets the job done. Like, is it the claws, the extra clouds? Sammy Watkins.

The lizard man! I think it might have been more better for you not to have read the tweets. Yeah. Because then you might have just examined, you know, now starting to distort things. I've been willing to not like Sammy Watkins totally unrelated to his lizard persona. Lizarddom. Like it's just been based his lizarddom. Scary. Would you guys even draft Carlos Hyde? I guess I'm surprised to see him in the ninth round. What do you guys think about that? I...

I'd love to talk about Hyde for a second because I think that he's a player that could go either direction due to camp in preseason. He should get a lot of time to run in the preseason. And if he flashes and looks good, I think he's going to be picked up regularly in leagues. You know, what I draft him right now, I don't know, probably not. The signing of Carlos Hyde is so bizarre. It was so fast. Because, yeah, I mean, they were like, we got to get some veterans in here, but.

Guys that succeed, Jason just mentioned that running backs that are fast, have great hands, and when they're in open space, they make things happen. Carlos Hyde does not check any of those boxes. He is literally one of the most inefficient pass-catching running backs since he has entered the league. The signing is so strange to me. In the ninth round,

I guess if you just want to have that backup plan in case Damien Williams is the guy. But to me, if Damien Williams is not the guy, Carlos Hyde will get a chance. And then Carlos Hyde will not be the guy. Like they'll go to go back to Damien or maybe Darwin Thompson. Is there any chance that Damien is a majority work shareback, but then you have a goal line situation with Carlos Hyde? Even like right now. I would doubt it. And the reason I say I would doubt it is because of the way they use the running backs.

on the goal line in the passing game. You just brought up the receiving touchdowns from the running back position. They like to use them in that way, and that's not where Carlos Hyde excels. So I would be a little bit surprised. Yeah, the Damien Williams discussion in general has been a difficult one because you don't have this, you just have a strange career arc for him, and he's in such a great situation. Yeah, when is the last time that a 27-year-old running back has broken into fantasy...

stardom it never like has that ever happened every once in a while i'm sure it's happened yeah and it but not it's not a regular thing and why it would not surprise me if carlos if he maybe he has brought it on the goal line even kareem hunt's rookie season uh it was really obnoxious to see how much sharkandrick west would get in there that's absolutely but that didn't stop kareem hunt from being a top ten guy so i'm not scared of that just saying there will be times

that Carlos Hyde will annoy you if you have Damien Williams. All right. We do want to take a quick pause to remind you about the Ultimate Draft Kit at Ultimate DraftKit.com. I mean, every single week we are adding to it. Jason just this morning got Mark Andrews tossed into those consistency charts, player updates. You've got cheat sheets, player videos. We keep improving it, and the app is really...