Busts & Values + Monty News, Butt Thorns - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/27

He's just as insane today. He's not getting 40 carries like Blau Powell got over the course of the season when Love Bell is out there. And the narrative is, well, if Lev Bell has, you know, enough workload, just volume, he gets 1,000 on the ground, 500 through the air, he's going to be a top 15 back. There's just no other way. But, I mean, he didn't do it last year. He didn't even have 800 rushing yards last year. Well, he was 3.2 a carry. So I just think.

Lev Bell is not someone I want on my roster, but I want to make this distinct point. Because if you look at where he's being drafted right now, he is actually being drafted after I have him ranked in my running back rank. I have him ranked, I think running back 18 or 19 right now. He's being drafted as like the running back 21. So he said, well, how could that be a bust? Here's how that could be a bust for fantasy. Right now he is being sandwiched in between two my guys in the draft. You can grab Cooper Cup and Tyler Lockett.

Right where Levion Bell is going. If Levion Bell is the running back 20 and beats his ADP, he is not going to really help your team the way you need him to. So to me, I can't imagine taking Lev Bell this year. I am concerned. Oh, no.

The argument, I will say this, the argument for Lovell has been about improved efficiency, improved offensive line, improved past catching, and the touchdown totals. Other than Leonard Fournett, he was the most anomalous in terms of opportunities to touchdowns. Those things can fill in the gap to maybe get back to last year or better. I'm concerned because Levy on Bell's posting about this. I'm not concerned about a B-Holes press conference.

The first time I've ever said that. Never said that before. I'm concerned about, and the story for Frank Gore last year was he actually started the year. He had three finishes inside the top 24. And to start the year with high volume in Buffalo, he basically disappeared over the back half of the year, which is something that we've seen happen time and time and time again with older running backs. You fade in the second half. That could happen to. But Lev Bell's posting about this.

You have this tension, this ribbon of tension in Jets camp for two years. I didn't really want him here. That's what Adam Gaze began this whole journey. Pay him more money than anybody. I didn't really want him here. Then I give him all this work and he's not that good. Then it's, oh, we're just giving him a little rest. And then Lev Bell's coming out yesterday and saying, boy, I'm twiddling my thumbs. I don't really know what I'm going to be doing. I don't know why I'm on the sideline. I'm used to broom brum.

Did he say I'm used to broom vrooming? He used emojis to show like the running man with a couple of smoke coming behind him. I'm used to the vroom vroom. He will get. He's not happy. He'll get the work. He is a talented. I moved him down. I mean, I was an advocate for him two weeks ago. We are paying attention to camp.

He's been moved down in my rankings. He's not in my top 10, not in my top 12. I still think, like I said, I made the arguments at the beginning. I think there's an opportunity, but I don't blame you one bit for putting him in as your bust. All right. I didn't like that quote. I am going to jump in here, and this is dicey. This is dangerous. And I'll get it off my chest. Look, my fantasy bust.

Key word being fantasy. It's wide receiver for the Arizona Cardinals, DeAndre Hopkins. Oh. Okay. Let me start. Let me start here. He is elite. He's, thank you. That's how, this is how I feel. Let me cover my shirt. This is how I feel having to bear my soul to the fantasy community put myself out there because this is not.

This is not an easy man to take a fantasy stand against. He is elite. He is one of the top three wide receivers in the NFL. He's still going to be good for fantasy. And he's on our team. And he's on my favorite team. Why? He's being drafted as the fifth overall wide receiver off the board. That's the problem for Hopkins. Over the last five years,

Top five wide receivers have averaged 156 targets. That's the volume on average that you have to get. Now, some guys don't do that because they have like the huge touchdown year. Last year, Hopkins had 150 targets. He barely snuck into the top five. And games played last year with the Sean Watson, the quarterback who he's played with for years and years now.

He was pulling in 31% of the targets while he was on the field. That was the second highest number behind only Michael Thomas. Last year, on the Arizona Cardinals, Christian Kirk had the highest target share when he was on the field. Christian Kirk came in at 24% of the targets. That is a very large gap to go from the number one guy getting 24% all the way up to 31%. Through the first five weeks,

Arizona was running the actual air raid system that Cliff Kingsbury wants to run before. The personnel kind of crapped out, and Cliff realized he couldn't do that. But through the first five weeks, over 50% of the plays, four different wide receivers were on the field. Now, if you want some context for how insane that number is, through that same time period, Washington was second in using...

four wide receivers on the field at the same time. 11%. People don't use this. This is why people were so excited for Cliff bringing in the air raid system. What's it going to do? How will it work out in the NFL? An elite wide receivers, we've seen them change teams a few times, and it's just been such a poor hit rate for people going all in on fantasy on someone changing teams. The offense just spreads the ball out too much.

for me to truly believe and project that Hopkins will be in that 156 target. King and Drake, Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, Dan Arnold, Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler, Kishon Johnson. Right. And I mean, I don't want to get into a whole bunch of math, but you can break down the numbers of 70% of the targets went to wide receivers for Arizona, which is by far the most in the league. But still, when you break down the targets,

And you try to give DeAndre Hopkins the 155 or 156 targets, it leaves absolutely nothing for Larry and Christian Kirk, who are going to get targeted. Can I ask you a question? Yes. Because I feel like, you know, sometimes people know we're from Arizona. They know we're Cardinal fans. Sometimes we get accused for, oh, you're calling for the Kyler breakout or Kyler's going to be good. That's because you're a hometown fan. I feel like we've been in a different bubble.

with the DeAndre Hopkins draft price. It's been in the, like, I don't even, we haven't been in anywhere where we're drafting him in that wide receiver five range. But when you make this argument, how do you see it playing out? Because he's an elite Hall of Fame caliber wide receiver. Do you see it playing out in terms of?

purely consistency issues in Arizona where Hobbies is, I don't think any of us would deny going to have monstrous games. Yeah, that's what's what I'm saying. I'm starting this argument with he is elite. He's going to be great for fantasy. But if you're drafting him as the wide receiver five, I don't think you're going to get the level of consistency that you want from the wide receiver five. I don't think you're going to get the final fantasy finish that you want when you're drafting a guy as the wide receiver five. He should still.

I have him outside of my top 10 and my projections, but that's like by just a small margin of points. I expect him to be a wide receiver 1, but when you draft the guy at wide receiver 5 and he ends up in the 10 to 12 range, it's disappointing. Yeah.

I have him as my wider receiver five. My projections. Yeah, you've been in that camp. I think the pace of play is so much faster for Arizona and the total volume. He won't need to hit 30% of target market share in order to have targets like he's seen back in Houston. They didn't throw the ball as much as Arizona does. So I actually do think he has a good season. But I still wouldn't draft him at five because when I'm in those first two rounds and I'm looking at.

I mean, I've said this before. In those rounds, I am risk adverse. Because everybody's great. Everybody's sealing in the first two rounds is, oh, maybe they could be the number one at their position. Hopkins, maybe he could. But changing teams and all the variables that are here say that there's a larger percentage chance that I'm wrong on my projection than I like to have.

when I, you know, take a look at a point. Invest that kind of draft capital. Yeah, he may have more of, like from an impact to an offense, he may be number one in football on moving to Arizona and the impact he has on that offense, but that might not translate to fantasy. You talk about risk aversion, my bus pick, J.J. Schuster, he's being drafted ahead of DJ Moore. He's being drafted ahead of A.J. Brown. He's being drafted ahead of Cooper Cup. He's being drafted ahead of Calvin Ridley.

The metaphor that I have in my mind for Juju Smith-Schuster, you know how when they release a new television show, they like to have it be right around the biggest hit on the network at the primetime slot? Yeah, yeah. So they can pick up right afterwards. Right after Friends. That was the magic slot. Look, that primetime show was Antonio Brown. That debut show was Juju Smith-Schuster, and it came on right after, and man, it had a great first season.

First two seasons. Yeah, had an even better second season. But you have now removed that benefit of the doubt. And he's still riding the coattails of that number one hit. And the price that you're paying in fantasy drafts is a result of still thinking about that sophomore season that he had. And then a tendency for us to want to forgive, throw away.

last season in its entirety. It's hard not to. Well, yeah, it was trash. And the things you do with the trash, you throw it away. Yeah, the types of targets that they were getting in Pittsburgh from the variety of Duck Hodges and Mason Rudolph, they weren't very good targets. But it's 2020, guys. We have the technology to look at, I don't think I said that word very clear. Technology. We've got it. We can go look and see.

Was he really bad on catchable targets last year? And the answer is, yes, he was really bad. He was 58th in football in terms of catch rate on actual catchable targets when his own teammate, Deante Johnson, was 16th in football at the exact same yards per target. These were the same types of targets, and Juju was actually worse. He actually took a step back.

I don't think you're going to get what you got in that sophomore year ever again. And one thing that I haven't brought up very much, or we haven't talked about in the context of Juju, is this is a contract season for Juju Smith-Schuster. There was pre-season discussion already about this team's not going to extend Juju. They go out. What do they do? We say pay attention to what the team does. They go get Chase Claypool in the draft. The argument for Juju is, well, maybe that volume from the A.B. years goes down.

but maybe the touchdowns come up. Chase Claypool is kind of a big guy. They brought in Eric Ebron, a red zone monster, variables around Big Ben. Yes, he may be back. He may be the same Big Ben. Maybe he's not. Maybe he is, but the volume isn't there because this defense is so exceptional. They still have Deontay Johnson and James Washington and other weapons in this offense. So, again, all busts are in the context of what it costs you in the draft to acquire the player.

I am always shocked at where Juju is going. I have no other explanation for it than it is riding the coattails of these great seasons gone by and throwing out last year. I'm not willing to do it. I want A.J. I want A.J. Brown. I want D.J. Moore. I want Cooper Cup. I want Calvin Ridley. So I'm not going to take Juju in the third round.

Yeah, it's upsetting because I do believe he is... This whole segment is upsetting. I know. Why do we... Busts are so sad, I do believe Duj is exceptionally talented. And while there's been reports at a camp that... I was going to say, that's the one thing I haven't mentioned yet. Yeah, that, you know, he had an exceptional camp last year and has disappeared this year. He's nowhere to be found. Maybe then we get the reverse of the season. Well...