Fantasy Football - Wildcard Draft Picks + Breakout-or-Bust? - Podcast for 5/27

He can be our primary runner. But then they went out and tried to, you know, they brought in a million running backs to look at and obviously prioritize that. They didn't have a second round pick. They still spent a day two pick on a running back. Caleb Johnson is coming into a situation where you've got the history of Mike Tomlin until very recently, always having that one back system, you know, the Levi-on-Bell or the James Connor of the past. And when I hear the quotes from... you know from Mike Tomlin about this guy they are I mean he's talking this is what this is what Tomlin said after the draft he said I was talking about physicality and a big man agenda this is a high volume capable runner who was the center of his offense a lot of NFL Sunday like runs if you will meaning he did it from home position or the pistol position into a lot of loaded boxes wasn't a lot of guesswork or Saturday like holes in his tape that made the evaluation a fun one an easy one

I think by the end of this year, he is the dude for this team. Big breakaway runs coming. But if you want to talk wildcard, I mean, first of all, Arthur Smith is the OC. Oh, man. What can we do? How can we trust? How can we trust in anything when he's the OC? That's tough. And then what is the workload of Jalen Warren? Is he going to be what he has been? Or does he now, you know, there were other quotes from the offensive coordinator after the draft. saying it's a long rookie season. Everything is going to be new to him. And they'll probably bring him along slowly. So maybe slowly is through camp. And like he earns it quicker. And starting in week one, it's great. Maybe it's halfway through the year. Maybe it doesn't happen. But I do think that the high end for Caleb Johnson is very, very high. I would put it just as high as RJ Harvey's where it's a tough one, especially if Aaron Rogers is a quarterback because there'll be a trust factor there.

you know, Rogers is going to want the guy out there that's pass blocking. And so the pass blocking will definitely go to Jalen Warren, a very good pass blocker. But, you know, Caleb Johnson, Najee Harris averaged 319 touches per year in his four years with the Steelers. Three of those years were with Jalen Warren. So there's so, so many opportunities here. And since 2013, every single rookie running back drafted on day two who saw more than 220 opportunities. finishes a top 25 running back, every single one. Right. If you get the opportunities that are work. Right. The vacated opportunities here are massive. It's just like RJ Harvey, it is still long odds over the last 15 years to get that many opportunities as a day two pick. I think it's right in front of him. I think a lot of people know that. I think everybody that's trying to trade for Roman Dynasty is getting their trades rejected because I think they know. Like Jaylon Warren, regardless of what he has this year.

is not their future running back. No. In fact, beat reporters are saying they don't expect him to be on the roster the next year. In a dynasty league, Caleb Johnson is amazing because he's very, very young. You know, that was the conversation we had on the dynasty show, was actually R.J. Harvey versus Caleb Johnson because I think most projections have R.J. Harvey with a better rookie season than Caleb Johnson right now. Yeah. But there is a three-year age gap between those players. Sealing and floor numbers for Caleb. I think the floor is lower with Caleb. I think the floor is running back 30, running back 32 somewhere around there. I think the ceiling is is running back six. I believe this to me. I was going to say top 15. I was going to say like maybe, yeah, I'd say like 12 to 15. It's a real evaluation gamble because what happened if you don't, if you didn't follow along, if you're just getting back into, you know, rookies this year.

Caleb Johnson, his production profile, whoa brother, you don't get better than this. He accounted for 43% of Iowa's total yardage last year, 52% dominated rating, easily best in this class, even ahead of Genti. Why was this guy? But then the combine happened. I was he the sixth running back off the board. The combine happened, and he ran a slow 40. And Mike Tomlin talked about that. He's like, he's not slow. He's super fast. No, no, no, no, no, no, no. You turn that off. You turn that disrespect off. He hit 22 miles per hour. That was Dwight Bell walking to this. Oh, all right. Okay. He was just nearby. He hit 22 miles per hour on the field, but he's not a sprinter. He doesn't. Took him, took him 80 yards to get up to speed. Maybe. I mean, look, he's a polarizing. I mean, their GM came out and said they viewed Jalen Warren as starter worthy. That was another comment. So it's like.

That is a definition of a wild card. I probably don't have the ceiling as high as you, but maybe next year. Maybe next year I'd do that. Mike, you didn't give us a floor and ceiling for Aaron Jones. Oh, a floor for, the floor for Aaron Jones, I think is bad because there's the world exists. Like outside the top 36? Uh, maybe not that low, but outside of the top 30. Like that, I think that could happen. And then the ceiling case for Aaron Jones would be probably. right around where he finished last year. So like a top 15-ish guy. Okay. I, my wild card name is, it's a rough one, man. It is, this is like film versus reality to me in a lot of ways. It's Jaden Reed, wide receiver for the Green Bay Packers. Dude, I do not know what to do with this guy. I feel like his range of outcomes and his potential, it's swirling into a tornado of,

What in the world do you do as a fantasy manager? I believe Jaden Reed is a is a top tier NFL wide receiver. I believe that everything I've seen on film for two years. I believe he is, he is their best wide receiver, including the drafting of Matthew Golden. I think Jaden Reed is definitely their best runner wide receiver. Tons of explosive plays last year. His yards per catch went up three yards. And yet he's not always on the field. and they use them in different weird ways. Now, there's a lot of positive, Jaden Reed, you know, propaganda and news this offseason. He's up to- He's up to 999 pounds. We like him putting on weight. They say he's the leader of the wide receiver room. He demanded, you know, like a meeting with the team because of the drafting of Matthew Golden to understand his hierarchy. Say what you will. Like we know that a lot of these other wide receivers in Green Bay are heading out the door, right? Like Christian Watson's time there and Dobbs and who knows about Wix.

The weird thing about Reed is that he's not always on the field. Last year, 63% of the time he's on the field. He's not out there in two wide receiver sets very often. Now the Packers, it doesn't matter sometimes. They're an 80% three wide out set situation. He's just like the first four games of last year summarized why Jaden Reed is a wild card. He finished as the wide receiver one in week one. He finished as the wide receiver two in week four. In between he was a wide receiver 48 and 42. He disappears. He's not a part of the game plan and not a part of the offense. And I will tell you, this is going to sound like people won't agree. But when Stefan Diggs was coming up in Minnesota, it was actually very similar. If you go look at Stefan Diggs's career trajectory, he didn't hit 1,000 yards until year 4. He was a 60% player on Minnesota. But in the beginning, when you watch Stefan Diggs play. Oh, yeah, I remember.

I knew Stefan Diggs was something special. And that is how I feel by Jaden Reed. Now, this year is a defining year for me. This is why he's a wild card. I think your price for Jaden Reed is it's going to be, it's going to be cheap, right? Like the upside for Jaden Reed to me is wide receiver 15, wide receiver 13, 14. Like if the season goes the right way, that's where he could be. But his other end is wide receiver 38, 40, somewhere in that department. So, you know, last year was wide receiver. You can see it there on the screen. 26 was his fantasy finish, but it was a hugely inconsistent and disappointing year. So to me, he is like Matthew Golden, the nice thing is is that Matthew Golden does not represent alpha to me. Is that because he wasn't an alpha on his college team? That would be one of the reasons why. Like Matthew Golden is awesome for Jordan Love. He's awesome for the offense.

He's going to open up the offense in ways that Christian Watson did when he was healthy. But he's not going to be a volume. I can't wait for Golden to have disappearing games. I mean, the name is just right there, baby. There's out there being a golden goose. Oh, yeah. Okay. Yeah. Switch. I had to get it in quick. I was concerned where you were going. I don't know where you thought I was going. Oh, to the showers? I can see it. I think so. Why do I say words? Goodness gracious. Stupid. So, so yeah, look, I'm going to make, I'm going to have Jaden Reed everywhere. I'm going to have him. Oh, really? I'm going to have him everywhere. I'm going to have him everywhere. End result is that you're in on Jaden Reed. That's very interesting. Good coach, good quarterback, good offense, good team, good player. That's a, that's a five-fingered recommendation.

Now, that's great, but I will say this, right? Just the counterpoint, and obviously this is why he's a wild card. Oh, yeah. I have decided, like, I won't have him anywhere. Because I'll have already drafted. Sure, you'll draft him ahead. No, that's fine. But like last year, before drafting a first round rookie wide receiver, who will also be on the field and stop him from, you know, having the snap percentage that we want, he had. a d consistent 35% of his games like he was actively hurting people last year if you were trying to play him even including the games he helped you win and it came part and parcel with with jordan love's kind of descent from a quarterback five overall finish like because jaden reeds rookie season he was quarter i used a wide receiver 23 yeah with a quarterback five and jordan love so yeah wild card is the the the 3.2

I just believe he's really, really good. I genuinely do. I believe that too. But I don't know how you have a good player on your team who's catching the ball barely three times a game. That's insane. Yeah, I mean. You know who that reminds me of? Matthew Golden, no joke. He's like a really good player on his college team that is barely involved. I mean, yeah, look, Stefan Diggs. It wasn't, it took a long time. Yeah, but Diggs was at least a year two. I think he was catching like, he had 84 receptions in years. He's catching six balls of a game in year two. Yeah, you're right. I mean, it's not, they, he will not level up fantasy wise if he doesn't get more opportunity. Yeah, the team has to make a decision. I just think that he's going to get more opportunity because that's the best in the best interest of the team. Well, and also when you bet, we talk about this more when we get closer to draft season, but.

It is a really good bet to bet on wide receivers later in drafts from wide receiver cores that are good that you just don't know who, you don't know where the, you know, what the packing order is. Yeah, that's why there's a discount. Yeah, but part of that, and we don't ever want to talk about it because it's pure luck, but part of it is just injuries sometimes propel players to have more opportunities. Yeah. If you're betting on a talented guy on a good offense with a good quarterback, yeah, maybe the first couple games. You know, it's like he's on the field 60% of the time and whatever. But then next thing you know, one of the wider, Dobbs goes down to injury. Jaden Reed has to step up. And I mean, that can only happen when you're betting on talented players. Right. You have to believe, like, because there's been opportunities for Dobbs in injury gaps. Right. And that hasn't led to.

like amazing star yeah you need to be talented enough to step into it it's a good point uh we'll take another break and we'll come back with a few more wild card names that we have picked out all right give me one more honorable mention wild card name that has your brain spinning i'm i'm gonna go first out of order here just because um going from jaden reed to this player was a wacky and wild trade a just we just made in our dynasty league we traded jaden reed for Tyreek Hill in Dynasty. What's Tyreek doing on this show? Tyreek is a complete wild card. I mean, this is a player who two years ago was the wide receiver won. He was the best wide receiver. He was drafted. If it wasn't Christian McCaffrey, he was often Tyreek Hill this last year. And now this last year, he's old and he only, he doesn't hit 1,000 yards. He goes from 1,800 yards.

to 959 yards with one more game, with way more routes. And he's old. So it's like, okay, is this an age thing? Is this a two-a-thing? He's 31. He didn't hit 1,000 yards. He was the wide receiver 23. But could he just bounce back? Oh, it was the wrist. It was, you know, I don't know what to do. Like, I'm out on Tyree Kill for where he is in drafts. But in the back of your head, you know, something different could happen. Absolutely. I'm not saying I'm out because I'm right. I'm saying I'm just putting the odds more that an older wide receiver coming off of a down year doesn't usually bounce back. But I'm terrified of that. My name, and I brought it up a couple times because I'm the lowest of this group on it. It's Rashi Rice in Kansas City. Super wild card. Because he's just a weird player in some respects. Like 68% of his receiving yardage came after the catch. That's what he does, man. It is what he does. But he does it at, like he benefited.

from all the attention that Travis Kelsey demands when Travis Kelsey is elite and Travis Kelsey is diminishing and you have Xavier Worthy emerging and you have Hollywood Brown returning so all of those variables mixed together with an injury that's a six to nine month timeline that okay he's back he'll be at training camp like does it all go his way again to the point where it's worth that draft pick like I have worthy ahead of him in my rankings right now like I I don't know of either of those guys is a perennial top 15 wide receiver. I think maybe the Mahomes with these guys era is those guys sit between 16 and 25. I don't know. It's a wild card because the potential for Rashi Rice is top, like I think I have him, his ceiling's probably seven or eight in my opinion. Yeah, yeah. But I think his floor is outside the top 24. I agree. I mean, I am pretty confident that Rice will be good.

But certainly, I mean, you bringing up the diminishing Kelsey and the coverage changes because they're both working in the same area of the field. Yes. And that's, and Rishi Rice was always basically single covered and the little slant that worked every single time, but only for three games before we got injured. That's the part where it's like, would teams have adjusted? Does it change? Does he have more in his bag? Right. And has he been able to, you know, as a young wide receiver progresses, they get better. They get stronger. Also, you get a better route runner, except he's been injured the whole year. You just shocked me, by the way, because I didn't remember that his stint was that short. Oh, that it was only three games. Like it feel like the breakout, if you had asked me based on memory, how long he had played, I would have told you six weeks. Eight weeks. So it was only three weeks. It was because of how good those three weeks were. They were good.

He was on, well, he was on pace. You want to hear the pace? 163 targets, 1632 yards, 11.3 touchdowns. They were really good. It was, it was, it was nice. And nobody could stop. We, yeah, I remember the three of us were watching these games together and we're just, we're frustrated. Yeah, but have you seen Cincinnati trying to stop somebody? No, that's fair, but I've seen Baltimore stop people. I mean, look, I was waiting for the adjustment by teams and it wasn't happening yet. It was like, why are they letting him do the same little? Yeah, I think he's a wild card. I really do. In breaking route, you know Mahomes going to hit him right in stride. His ADP is a fourth round pick. I don't think I'll spend it. I don't think I'll spend it. I might. I think I will. What's your last name, Mike? So it's a, don't forget.

Wait, what is this? What are we chuckling about? The way you said, what's your last name? What's your last name? I was, thank you, Al. I was, Jason and I were right. I heard it too. What's your, what's your last thing? I should have got that one. I apologize. The last name. It final. Cedric Tillman of the Cleveland Browns. It was good name. Look, this was a very short-lived breakout. Really. was about four full games. But I bring him up because, number one, that did happen. And on the other side, you have Jerry Judy, who at the exact same time as Tillman, he was starting his breakout. But then Tillman got the concussion and was out the rest of the season. And then Jerry Judy, of course, goes on to have just an unbelievable second half and finishes it with over 1,200 yards. But in that month span,

where like Cedric Tillman was getting more of an opportunity because they had just traded Amari Cooper for those at home will forget what happened. Opportunity popped up. There's third round pick that they had just taken two years ago. It's finally getting a chance, talking about Cedric Tillman. And he is coming through in that time period. He's averaging over 75 yards, receiving yards a game in almost a full touchdown. And in that time, Jerry Judy. is that 78 yards like so both of these guys are are doing some serious work that was the flacco this was this was uh james james oh james that which is that gets me to the only thing better than a flacco is a james which gets me to the the next part of you have to filter you have to get your pan and filter through that this was james winston playing and this i just the two wide receivers for the brown that's combined they're both wild cards 150 yards i think i think um

Judy's a wild card too. But here's the thing. Because Jerry Judy ended up really taking advantage of everything that could possibly go right for Jerry Judy. Of his two main competition, wide receivers are gone. His garbage quarterback is out. James the Gunslinger is in. And then there was some more rotation, of course, through the end of the season. But Jerry Judy, while people are like, I don't, you know, he's a while. He's a, I don't know. I don't know. I'll take him in the sixth. Cedric Tillman is, is he being drafted? He's borderline drafted in normal leagues right now. This would be like the last pick. So he's to get a wide receiver too. And the same of a player who very small sample, I get it. But at, he was doing the same thing. He's a lower case wild card. You can barely see him. But at the same time, you know.

This was a day two pick. And this isn't an old, this isn't a, you know, his fourth or fifth year. He got really hurt, man. Yeah. He got really. Remember he was supposed to be coming back every week and then it was like, uh, yeah. I think what happened is, I mean, maybe I am off base here, but it also seemed like at the end of the year when they were losing every game and going after the number one pick, why bring a guy back? Well, I think, I think he would want to be back though. But you could be right. He reminded me of Nico Collins.

It sounds like incredibly high praise, but that type of play. He's a good contested catch, big bodied in zone target. So yeah, it makes sense. He surprised people in a very positive way. He was able to handle high target load in those games and do a lot with it. So, but I mean, the troubling part about that is just the quarterback situation and not knowing what in the world is going on from week to week. Absolutely. Over under three quarterback changes in Cleveland this year. Changes, so that's a good. Are you counting a guy who goes back in? Yes. Then over. Three. Like, how do you, let me ask you this question. Let's put it this way. It's probably over three. Yeah, I mean, it's like, Kenny Pickett. Is he going to have snaps for the Browns? Yes, he will start week one. If Flacco is on the roster, is he having snaps for the rounds? I don't think he'll be on the roster, but yeah, he probably would. Sanders is getting snaps?

Gabriel? Gabriel will definitely get snaps. Yeah, and all you need is a few to move on to Sanders. Sure. I don't know. And they rotated them all last year. So that's the point. They're going to find a good one. They have so many options. That's right. So my larger point for Cedric Tillman is if you are into the archetype of, if you're into drafting Jerry Judy, you should keep an open mind that you might on some of your teams want to. just draft Cedric Tillman at the end. Yeah, I thought Jerry Judy went irresponsibly low in our mock draft on Thursday. I think what Jerry Judy showed ceiling-wise last year made, I think he was, where did he go? Was it late 6th? Was it later than that? In our mock? That's about his ADP. Yeah, and I think that's wrong. No, he went at the back to seven. Okay, that's what it was. It was almost eighth round. That's insane.

This was a guy that literally, he was like the best wide receiver in football for a stretch. Yeah, I think the second half of the year, he was like wide receiver four, finished the season as wide receiver 15. He had 1,000 receiving yards. Yeah, he was great. Eighth round, obvious wide receiver won for this team. The issue is obviously the quarterback. I mean, if, if James was the quarterback, you'd see, I mean, that's just a fun, that's just a fun question. If James was the quarterback this year, where would, Oh, would Judy be in the like first round? Like no joke? He would not be in the first round, but he would be in the third. Yeah, he wouldn't get out of the third. I don't think he'd get out of the second. Yeah. That's, I mean, yeah, you're right. No, that's a, that's a, if James had been crowned, well, Tillman would be a fourth then. You know what I mean? The joke would be number one overall. James Winston. James Winston. James Winston brings it off. Someone let that man start for us. He is a kingmaker. That'll do it for today's episode.

UltimateDraftGid.com comes out on Sunday. We'll be back with another episode on Thursday. Talk to you then. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join thefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at the FF ballers.