The TRUTH: Second Tier RBs in 2019 - Fantasy Football Podcast

And we're going to form one team. I'm going to Lister. You're going to take Rahim Moster. I don't want to spoil next week, but there's no way I'm not taking Rahim Moster. You can't talk. I mean, we've got to talk about this as a group. Right. We're going to put one team together, the three of us, one player each. If you beat us next week in the Ballers Bowl, there's a $10,000 prize pool heading your way. More of those details are coming next week when we make the picks.

And we'll tell you how to enter. And obviously, if you've beat us, if you're not going to. Well, in the past, over the last few weeks, if you've beaten us and you've got your Ballers Bowl entries, you'll be able to add as many entries as you've won. And thank Andy for your free entry. I'm glad we've rotated back to me being the stink. Mike's never been the sting. That's right. Jason and I have been alternating stink. Maybe we should have Mike pick our TV. Maybe I should pick Mostert and you should pick.

Tyreek so that we don't mess this thing up. So you're thinking if I pick Moster and you pick Tyreek, we're doomed. We're doomed. Because that's what happened two weeks ago. Or what if Mike just picks our team? Yeah. That would also help the equation. My shoulders are ready. Do you think that, so lots of people out there playing beat the ballers. It's been a really fun time. It's made the playoffs. Pretty fun. Yeah. Do you believe that the people out there are wanting?

us to have a really good roster? No. So that if they beat us, they get a larger share of the 10,000? Okay. Or are they hoping like, oh man, we just, we stink and it's just easy winnings. I would imagine they want us to be just worse than their score. That's that's regardless of what that means. But yeah, next week you'll be able to check it out. Beat the ballers.com. We'll make our picks on next week's episode before the Super Bowl. Can't wait. Going to be a lot of fun.

You want answers? I think I'm entitled. You want answers. I want the truth. You can't handle the truth. All right. We're back in the truth of the fantasy football running back position from 2019, breaking down the consistency of a ton of running backs, looking at how many great games they had, how many good games, how many bust games. Did they perform, you know, up to their fantasy finish? And one guy that did, the next guy on the list?

Leonard Fournett, number nine. That's where he finished. His consistency rank was number nine. And, you know, we talked earlier on the show about how we were looking at last year's projections. My projection for Leonard Fournett was pretty spot on until you walked up to the receiving totals and he legitimately doubled the target total I had projected for him last year. He had 100 targets. I think I had him down for 52.

He ended up with 76 receptions, and that led to a top 10 year in terms of performance and consistency. Well, I mean, honestly, when you're going into your projections, you've got to project Leonard Fournett to have more targets than Alvin Camara. Oh, my gosh. That's easy. More than James White, Levy on Bell, Sequin Barclay. I mean, that's easy picking. Well, yeah, Leonard Fournett is known as a scatback.

He's one of those tiny third down guys you bring in and just great fluid pass catcher. Fourth most targets at the running back position. So here's a problem with that. This was part of what made him consistent, right? We're talking about what was the truth of this previous year and also what do we expect the truth of next year to be? Well, this previous year, part of the reason he was so consistent is that target volume. He had so few touchdowns for the yardage he had, a huge positive regression.

type of swing you could predict because you look at his utilization as carries his yardage. He should have had far more touchdowns. He had a touchdown on every 88 carries. That's ridiculous, especially for a guy of Leonard Fournett's caliber. But with those touchdowns lacking, the passing work made up for it. So that made him a little bit more consistent. But going forward, you say, well, what is the truth? Is he now a high volume passing?

Back, obviously the team, the quarterback's there, they're willing and able to do that. But I think one of the most interesting things for me going into next year is what do they do with the running back position? Right. As in they lost T.J. Yeldon. They didn't really replace him with anyone. They brought in a rookie who basically had the same profile as Leonard Fournette as a big bodied, you know, goal line type of not pass catching guy. If they go out and.

sign someone, I think that that would be good for them as a team. And that would make me not project another 100 targets next year. Well, they were 6 and 10. They didn't succeed. So you have to look at the situation and say, are you going to go back to the same well? Was it Leonard Fernette's fault? No. I mean, he had a good season. He was one of the only consistent pieces of that team.

But you're right. You're staring at the draft. And at the same time, you have to look at the lesson learned from Leonard Forenett that we could apply to other situations. When the draft was over, when free agency was over, you looked at Jacksonville and we all looked at each other and said, well, there ain't, there's no one there. Right. So, you know, in absence of these other options meant a necessity to involve Fournette in the passing game. They didn't trust any. It was so comforting when you were a four net owner to have.

Third down come along, two-minute drill come along, and he's not off the field like he was in years past with T.J. Yeldin. So he was very consistent this year. Yeah, and like Jason said, though, it was the touchdowns, three rushing touchdowns. What was interesting when I was looking at his numbers, he was tied for 10th for the most carries inside of the 10. I mean, that's excellent. I want my running basket and carries inside the 10. But of those...

of those top 10, he was the only running back who did not have double-digit carries inside the five. So clearly there was an offensive problem once they got inside the red zone. They had a really hard time getting from the 10 to the 5. Yes. That was one of the big problems in Jacksonville. And maybe that was Fournette's fault. I don't know. Yeah, more receptions this season than he had in 2016, 17, and 18 combined. That's incredible. That is an incredible stat. All right, moving on. Sequin Barkley. Oh.

Look at those first six weeks of Sequin, and you weren't happy with where you took him. I mean, he was the number one pick probably in more drafts than anybody else. He ended up at number 10 on the year, dealt with injury, obviously, the ankle sprain, and ended up consistency rank of number 14. And a reminder, we don't.

count missed games in consistency. So we just took the games he was active when you would have started him. And instead of getting the number one, you got number 14 in consistency. Yeah. When I was building the consistency stuff out, you expect a guy like Sequin to remind you, all la, Devante Adams. When you get to the consistency stuff, you go, oh, he was a lot better than we remember because he was injured and he was gone. And it's like, oh, yeah, Devante Adams.

Really bad season due to injury, but he was still consistency rank number four. Whereas here was Sequin, just in the games where he was playing, he was 14th. He was super disappointing. And, you know, the truth of that is he got injured with a high ankle sprain. And when he came back, he said he didn't feel himself for a while. He certainly didn't look himself. For seven games, he was averaging 17 carries for 53 rushing yards. Wow.

When he came back from the ankle injury. Yeah, your fantasy team didn't feel like itself. And then the final three games, explosion average 21 carries for 131 yards. I mean, granted the matchups were there for Sequin Barclay. You could see that his playoff run should be sensational. It's a really difficult season for me to gauge for Sequin because he was great at the beginning. You looked like, oh, I'm getting Sequin. You had the injury. You had a quarterback change.

What was unfortunate was his targets. Those drops pretty significantly. He had 121 his rookie year. 73 last year, but he was pacing out for 90 targets on the year. So a drop of 30 targets, that's pretty substantial. And so I looked at with Eli versus Daniel Jones, I mean, he averages two fewer targets a game when it's not Eli Manning.

Yeah, Jones driving the ball down the field a little bit more. Is that a trend that will continue that remains to be seen? I lean on the side of, yeah, I think Daniel Jones won't check it down as much as Eli. But you saw, I'm very thankful for the end of the year for Sequin. Yeah. Because I think it put him in the right place in terms of going into next year. Like there are very few running backs I would even consider above Sequin Barclay. Like I'm taking Sequin Barclay over Dalvin Cook next year.

So you have him pretty locked in a number two. He's pretty much number two. If you want to make the Zeke argument, I'm fine with that. Is Henry in the argument there? No. Because he's not a pass catcher. Because he's not a pass catcher. No, I want, you know, Sequin was injured. He showed the ramifications of that, breakaway play problems from injury through those before the last three games. But this is Sekewon. He's a centerpiece of the team, top draft pick.

I, you know, to me, I'm not very concerned. I do worry about the targets. I expect them to go down from where his rookie season was. I was talking about that last year with Daniel Jones coming in. That's the worry is they're not going to go up from where he was. They can only go down or stay the same. And so going forward, I think you're projecting him for around 100 targets instead of the 120 he had his rookie season. I'll take it. Yeah, I mean, look, if we're talking about that as a negative, 100 targets.

Still had 52 receptions on a short season for 438 yards through the air. And if you want a spot for positive regression, eight carries inside the five, one touchdown from inside the five. I mean, that's pretty rare. Is he locked in your top three? Or is he, are you dancing with where he's at? I wouldn't, probably a top three. I think you can lock him in there. But I think Dalvin Cook is up there.

for me. I know I was playing the devil advocate against Dalvin Cook, but right now I think Dalvin belongs up there as well. All right. Before we move on to the next running back, we want to thank today's sponsors for supporting the show. And I want to talk to you about Bank United. Bank United wants you to go for more. Here's what you can do. You can enter for a chance to win $54,000 if a team goes for and completes a two-point conversion during the big game on February 2nd.

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for being a longtime supporter of this show, but for making the best today's level speaker. Can you imagine listening to this podcast on a Sonos? I've done it. I don't have to imagine, Mike. It's got to be sensational. It is phenomenal. My voice sounds perfect. Especially when you sing, Mike. The truth is... Me, me, me, me, me, me, me. Sonos is...

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I'm disappointed because they're never disappointed. They're awesome. So check them out. Make sure you get Sonos all across your house. Go to sonos.com to learn more. That's Sonos. S-O-N-O-S dot com. All right, number 11. Number 11, my guy. Chris Carson ended up with a consistency rank of number 17. Oh, he fumbled and bumbled his way through a pretty impressive season. 278 carries. Love it. 1230 yards on the ground.