Fantasy Football - The Overreaction Episode! + Fantasy Freakouts - Podcast for 5/7

The reason. You have to like briefly mention Stowers just so it you're like, no, I'm talking all the tightest. No, you're not. All right. Well, about one guy. Look, last year, Andy's was, you know, about Sequin. And that was that was a good. This is about Sadiq. Don't overdraft. Thank you. He's not. He's not going to be special. Get stowers off the graphic. Yeah. I think I think Stowers could do it. Stowers is so good. He. Oh my God. I would take Stowers over Sadeke. He still has to get by God. Yeah. You know, I think you know what I think is actually happened.

I don't think that fantasy football players are capable of reacting in either direction to rookie tight ends. I think all we do is we take the young, unseen upside in the spot of the draft where it's ugly, old, and boring. Yeah. And we've gotten lucky three years in a row. Yes. And it's worked out spectacular. So maybe we move it up a little bit. They're going to say, well, it's worked out three times a row. I'm going to. And you know what? When I get. to some late round pick, and I have to choose Mark Andrews or Stowers. Mm-hmm. Wish me luck. Don't overreact. Wish me luck. Grab Mark Andrews. Mike, go ahead. I just want to talk a little bit about some touchdown regression. And, you know, we call it positive regression because we just want you to understand we're talking about going in the right direction. So we're talking about touchdowns specifically for the running back position of saying last year's touchdown droughts.

will not last forever. You know, James Cook is kind of the, he's become the poster boy for this type of talk where his first two years in league, he scored a total of two rushing touchdowns in each of those consecutive years, breaks out in a huge way. And it's like, oh, yeah, he was, he was hitting some bad luck. Maybe he's hitting a little bit too much on the good side, but he's a great player. It can't be just. simply, oh, this player will never be able to score. So I wanted to highlight a couple guys to pay attention to, because it's not as, it's not as easy as, you know, like last year, Matthew Stafford threw a touchdown on 7.7% of his passing attempts. That number's probably going to come down, just based off of a huge history of Stafford. Running backs are more difficult. But one player I do really want to highlight, Ashton Genty is a, he's a,

He is in this category of last year we had 266 rushing attempts for him, and he only scored a rushing touchdown for every 53 carries. These are numbers we can look at and say you're getting way too much volume. Your touchdown expectation should be far better than you performed last year. We have... You know, like some guys in talking about carries inside the five where the success wasn't there, but the opportunities keep flowing. David Montgomery, only five of his carries inside the five turned into a touchdown. He should be seeing exactly the same amount of volume he was seen in the side of the five this year compared to last year, maybe even more. And I expect those numbers to go back up. But along with Ashton Genti, you know, going on the good side, Blake Corum is very interesting.

when you're talking about this because he stands out dramatically of a player who had 13 carries inside the five and he only had four touchdowns. And I think people will see that number and be too dismissive and say, well, that means he's not good in it. It's all Kyron. Or look at the actual amount of carries that the team is giving him inside the five. It'd be like, Maybe I need to be a little bit more hesitant about what's going on. He has some touchdown regression coming for himself. Maybe I need to be more worried about the timeshare. I guess last episode you guys were talking about the report of Kyron and Blake Corum being more of a 50-50 split. We had a pretty big debate about it. So how many carries inside the five for Corum? He had 13 last year. So Kyron had 18.

Like, there's a lot to go around for that team because they're scoring off, but the point is... Well, Kyron is. Yeah. Okay, so that's where you stand on this side of the argument. That is where he stands on the argument. The touchdown, the numbers are the numbers, man. Analytics, they bounce back to the mean, and I think that quorum really underproduced in that area. And younger players tend to get better and older players tend to get worse. And then, you know, it's to highlight, like, Bill, only three of his carries inside the five, three of 12. turned into touchdowns. So make sure you're paying attention to these. We give you access to these types of numbers in the ultimate draft kit. If you just want to go look at a red zone report, see who's getting a bunch of carries inside the five. I mean, this is part of the process that I go with. So you can have, build it into yours as well. Look for signs because guys don't like Chase Brown scoring on 31% of his carries inside the five. That's, it's just, it's low. It's low. That.

Look for opportunities for them to bounce back. If you were to simulate that season 100 times, that's going to come up as one of the lower performing seasons relative to the mean. And the big boy is Seguan Barclay, who had one touchdown from inside the five. Like, that doesn't make, you know. On how many attempts? On 13 attempts. You highlighted Andy like, be careful with this performance. I will say the same thing now of. In the other direction. Yeah, like. Don't Barry Barkley just yet. Rank check. Yeah. So I really did not like where Sequin ended up for me. He's a player that I'm going to move up because he finished where I had him statted out at running back 15. That feels too low. He's got, I got him at 10. I felt pretty good about that. I feel like that's the right range. Yeah, I agree. And maybe a value for that team that's going to lose by all, you know, counts, AJ Brown.

Yeah. And yeah, we can like stowers and lemon, but that's not the presence of A.J. Brown on that offense. I would not be surprised if you saw a very similar run-heavy scheme with a little bit more bounce back to the mean. My second overreaction is the, it's ironic because we, I don't think we knew we were going to talk about Travis Hunter in this Jacksonville offense, but my second one was just that Brian Thomas Jr. is not dead. Oh, man. When I was doing Jacksonville, brother. Hard time? It. It's so difficult to not react drastically to what happened last year. You're talking about the fact that he finishes the wide receiver 43. He missed three weeks due to injury but only had 48 catches, 700 yards, two touchdowns. His catch rate was it totally bottomed out. It was not all too different than what you saw from Abucus second half of the year. He caught 65% of his targets.

in his rookie season that plummeted to 53 and it's like i i can you're mac jones targets man he can't be at 53 look he's it doesn't make sense his rookie it doesn't make sense but maybe it does a lot went sideways the challenge here is that you had you've only had like a handful of rookies that have finished his top five wide receivers in the history of of the game back home was one chase was one puka was one Brian Thomas Jr. did that two years ago. That's why he was a top 10 pick in a lot of drafts. The falloff of expectation to performance, that difference is the most impactful thing that you could have in fantasy in terms of, like, he is the bust of the year probably. When you're relative to draft position, he has to be. What's wild is that all the other sophomore wide receivers struggle. They all went down. Malik neighbors.

barely played, but his points per game was down from his rookie year. BTJs was the most extreme, went from 14 to 8, but Ladd-McConkie went from 12 to 9. That's not that different than Brian Thomas Jr. in terms of the actual output in points per game, 14 to 8, 12 to 9, Marvin Harrison went down a point per game. Xavier Worthy went down three points per game. These were all standout. I mean, Malik Neighbors wasn't even in the top 90 wide receivers. That's true. Thank you. Thank you, Jason. I did mention he was injured. But this was a new offense. And when I look at that receiving room, and I've been through it. Mike, you just said you had to go through it. I had to go through it. There's a lot of different mouths to feed. He did not end up, I think he ended up basically tied as my target leader on the team with Jacoby Myers and total targets. But the true purest upside potential, the biggest bang for your buck,

in this draft for somebody that's going to make a difference on your team, is still placing a bet down on Brian Thomas Jr. to bounce back to the type of form or close to it that he had in his rookie season. Jacoby Myers, we know what that dude is. We do. We've seen him on multiple franchises, the Patriots, the Raiders, Jacksonville. Let me give you a word for him. Solid. Yeah, that's the issue is, is he just a... good wide receiver or is he good enough to be that for them? Brian Thomas? No. Jacoby. Jacobi is, we know who Jacobi is. But that's what I'm saying. He's not enough. But he's not. That's my question. Is it enough? And let me say this. You'll have to answer that as a drafter. If you overreact to Brian Thomas Jr. struggling and you end up right and he's horrible. I promise you Travis Hunter is a thing. If Brian Thomas Jr. is nothing. I promise you it's not just going to be.

Jacobi Myers and Parker Washington is going to be somebody else. I think BTJ can bounce back. We've had some big time standout rookies that had a struggle as sophomores and bounced back. Mike Evans went from the wide receiver 12 as a rookie to 24 to 3. Calvin Ridley from 19 to 26 to 4. Cooper Cup 27 to 51 to 4. Garrett Wilson 1932. 4. I'm not saying it will happen. I'm saying that the draft value. It's one of the best picks you can make. It is absolutely one of the best picks you can make. One of the things that is a high predictor of future success is past success. We know that it's obvious, but this was in years past. Andy, you had a my guy prediction of Todd Gurley, and then he was the...

running back one that you had a my guy prediction of Cooper Cup and he was he was the number one wide receiver afterwards because they had shown that they could do this in the past right now depending on your your source I'm seeing an ADP of wide receiver 31 he's being drafted at wide receiver 31 now I have his median outcome at wide receiver 22 so I think he's a huge value but this is a guy who two years ago was the wide receiver for his seventh or eighth round pick potential Yeah, I mean, it's a wonderful shot to take. There is more talk of Jacksonville moving to two tight-in sets. BTJ is not the guy coming off the field in those situations. He's the ex-receiver. He's going to stay out there. He led Jacksonville in first read target percentage. Even in his crappy year last year, you talked about the catch percentage with two or fewer wide receivers on the field. He's still the dude. You know, Liam Cohen has come out and talked a little bit more about the fact that, you know, he didn't realize what BTJ is capable of doing in the slot. They need to do some better stuff with him. I don't think.

The utilization was questionable. He had 25% of his routes as pure go routes last year. There are only a handful of guys, and they're not names you love. You know, Marvin Mims, Darius Slayton, D.K. Metcalfe. The nine route warriors. Yeah, that your catch percentage is going to be low. You know, Kishon Booty kind of got it done with that. He had the highest percentage of go routes, but not to the degree where you were reliable in fantasy. Yeah, I mean, they also figured that out a little bit. To start. the year last year, Brian Thomas Jr. was way worse than how he finished. Like before their by week, he was catching 49% of his targets after the by week is 58%. So I do think that they are going to figure that out. He's going behind Cortland Sutton. Who do you want to try to take a shot? Of course. He's going behind D.K. Maccalf, Mike. Let me throw that one to you. Hmm.

Never Metcalf is what Mike has lived his life on. There's players drafted after. And he's going behind Jacobi Myers, by the way, one pick. Wow, that won't happen. That's exactly why, because everyone's like, huh? I don't know. Yeah, I think there's not going to be a big overreaction. Maybe it's even inappropriate emotional reaction, but don't let it affect how you draft 2026. All right. Is it your turn? It is my turn. I'm going. Not yet. Mike, what do you got for us? I don't think we can do that now with the screen. Oh, it must be Jason. All right, I'm up. Injuries have one of the biggest effects in fantasy football and they are not predictable. However, there's a lot of data at different positions for how often players get injured or don't. And I want us to be aware of what happened last year at the running back position and not overreact and think it's going to happen again because it ain't. Running backs last year.

We're so healthy. Yeah. No one got injured. It was unbelievable. I feel like that part of it was you. You made the proclamation about Bezon Robinson. We knew it was the player. Heir will kept Christian McCaffrey on the field plus an electrical station plus he siphon the powers of his other teammates. I mean, it really was. You have guys who have massive injury history like Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor. A lot of guys just didn't get injured. In fact, if you look at the players last year, Christian McCaffrey, 17 games. Jonathan Taylor 17, Bejohn, 17, 17, James Cook, 17, A. Chan, 16, but he was just benched in week 18. All the guys that were 16 were benched in week 18. That was, you know, Devon A. Chan and Giovante Williams. There was basically, it's kind of hurt too. There was basically only one injury of note, which was just Jacobs. Well, you know, Bucky.

Oh, yes, sorry, too. Bucky and Josh Jacobs, those guys were injured. But to give you a little bit of numbers of how wild it was, in 2025, the top 12 by ADP averaged 16.1 games. And it's really higher than that because most of those were week 18 sit downs from their team. Sequin Barclay didn't play, wasn't injured. Usually, you look back at the previous decade. They're only averaging 13.6 games. And that is a big difference because when you have those injuries, like Josh Jacobs missed like two games, not really. He was injured. He was playing injured. He had games where he would play like 29% of the snaps, not touch the ball. It was a very bad end of the season for Josh Jacobs. So how does this apply to not overreact to it? Well, one, you're going to have the pendulum swing like it will.

Running backs were great last year. Running backs will be highly drafted again this year, which means you're going to have some value in the first two rounds at wide receiver. I also think that this is a very good year to focus on depth at running back because, you know, people are going to be like, oh, I've got my studs, I'm solid. But also what that kind of points me towards, I'm not the hugest fan of this, but the years where you want to try it are years. after what we just saw, and that's zero RB. Zero RB is the methodology of drafting where you are going to take the backup insurance running backs late in a draft, the fodder, and you're going to wait for the injuries at running back. The reason it's probably a good year to do it is because it didn't work well this last year. When you have a bunch- I call it the no-dub strategy. When you have a handful of people playing that strategy in the same league,

They kind of cannibalize each other, and it doesn't work well for them to succeed. But when it's like not popular, it's like, oh, that didn't work. People aren't going to be in it. And especially in the running backs are being juiced up. You get access then to elite wide receivers and the elite tight ends. Exactly. So I don't, I don't want to look back at last year and think, man, somehow running backs just figured out how to exercise and stretch better. And they're not going to have, you know, big massive devastating injuries this year. It will sadly happen and take advantage of it. Draft. Way to not be positive like me. Draft. Just talk about injuries coming. I, yeah. You're kind of like the Grim Reaper. That's kind of your thing, man. What are you trying to do over here? I don't know. I don't know. It's trying to rebrand live on the air here. You can't do that, man. We're not fooling nobody. We're like 12 years into this. We'll leave him. We'll leave him as double stuff. Mike, what do you got? So I,

Like Jason's talking about with the running backs, we have a situation to monitor here with the elite top-tier mobile quarterbacks. Because they did not come through last year. I want you to read it verbatim. I want you to read your headline verbatim. For your section here. Do not let last year's quarterback disappointments brainwash you. Mortal, mobile quarterbacks still slap. That's it. All right. All right. That's a wrap it up. That's a Kyle Borgenoni. Oh, is that what he did? Yeah, Kyle loves safe thing slap. Mortal Kombat still slaps. Which it does. There you go. There's a new movie coming out. Not hashtag non-sponsor. I hate being old enough to where everything has come out three or four times. Do you know what I mean? Yeah. Like I don't, that is not a great part of growing up is just seeing the same exact movie. Want to see some new stuff? Remade.

Four, three or four times is wild. They're just still trying to get it right, you know, anytime now. Crazy. But so, you know, like Lamar, uh, ADP of, of quarterback two finishes at 20. Jaden Daniels lost season to injury. Jalen Hertz, not nearly as good as you hope. Bo Nix. Uh, like it was, Bo Nix was a weird season because sometimes it was fantastic. And then, of course, Kyla Murray, who. loses his job to injury and the team just no longer wanting to play him. We need to know where he is for you right this minute. Oh, Tyler? Yeah, this is part of our rankings. Hold on. Surprise yesterday. Me and me and Jason had a big differential on Kyler Murray. Right now, I have him better than ADP, but he is quarterback 15 for me. 23. Oh. Jason has him at 10.

He is. Just call me a baby bear. He's currently 12 now. But yes, I had him at 10 at the beginning. But to your point, Jason also has Jaden Daniels very high. Which that's what we want to bring up here is the forgotten man. The ADP is it has shifted. So last year, Lamar Jackson was going around the two, three turn. Right now in basketball, he's going in the late fifth. Jayden Daniels went from a third rounder to a sixth rounder. This is value is being placed upon you. And these are still the guys. Like Jane Daniels last year, if you look at only his six starts, his rushing numbers were exactly what you wanted. They were nearly identical to last year. He got hurt. The completion percentage wasn't as great. But we need these guys to run. And we need to know that they're going to run all year long. And Jane Daniels is now giving you a discount.

And like his scramble rate was even higher in those first six games compared to his rookie season. Then Jalen Hertz, it's the same thing. You know, you had a weird, lower rushing touchdown year for Jalen Hertz. Is that the new normal? Or is it a couple of years prior where it's just it's automatic? You know, last year only eight rushing touchdowns on the season. It was the fewest carries inside the five since 2021 for Jalen Hertz. The chance for him to regress to his mean. There I think is it's very strong. And I'm not saying like I'm for sure calling these things to happen. It's just about finding value where the market is presenting it to you. And regression studies should be a huge part of what you do when you're getting ready for drafts because that's how you know when people were a little too excited for them or the mob is too scared of this player.

Yesterday we got a question, Mike, on the mailbag portion about our process for statting players out in the UDK. Jason and I got to answer for ourselves. You weren't here. We talked a little bit about you looking at pace of play. Yes. Do you want to fill in some more? Yeah, the way I started as I start with the top down of just kind of the whole team, the team environment of their pace of play is very important to me. And that's based off of the history of the team, coaching staff. There's definitely some projection that goes into it when, you know, like last year, Kellynne Moore goes to the Saints. He plays way faster than Peyton and like the previous regime or not who. Dennis Allen. Yes. I couldn't think of it. And you're like, so you got to just kind of anticipate that's going to go on, but we have enough history of Kellynmore. And then I look at, okay, that coach, the quarterback, like just who they have.

their pass-to-rush ratio is really important to me of, is that going to stay about the same? Is it going to rise? And then that essentially just feeds my quarterback statistics of knowing those things. And then, of course, knowing how the quarterback performs. And then I just kind of filter that down to the rest of the players. Now, we kind of talked about different starting points for what you're looking at as we build those out. Obviously, the entire set of player by player, team by team projections for all three of us and our consensus rankings are all going to be in the 2026 Ultimate Draft Kit. We just released the best ball rankings and the UDK Plus available right now. All of that at ultimate draft kit.com. If you never want to think about it again, you can just become an Ultimate Foot Clan member. You'll get access to both the UDK in its highest form, the UDK Plus.

And you'll also get in-season tools, including the lineup optimizer, everything we add all the time, everywhere, extra episodes every week. It's a great way to support the show. Just go to join the foot.com for that. We are going to say goodbye to today's episode, and we'll be back with Dynasty Week next week, trade targets, rookie sleepers, an autographed jersey giveaway next week, and a whole lot more from the fantasy footballers. Until then, I wish you. Good luck on the golf course. Oh, I need it, man. Swing straight. Hit the ball. Definitely hit it. Step one. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join thefoot.com. And follow us on Twitter at the FF ballers.