Fantasy Football - NFC East Breakdown + Late Round Picks - Podcast for 7/23

I mean, last year, those numbers you talked about, Mike, that was just career-high in passing touchdowns. If they hadn't been there, you're talking about an even more disappointing year consistency-wise. ADP-wise, he's the last of the, like, you feel cozy. They feel like a warm blanket of job. So you both feel that way. Well, I'm just saying what the price is, a point where right now it's Hurts—or, I'm sorry, Josh Allen, Lamar, Drake, Joe Burrow, Jaden, and then Hurts is what I'm seeing for current redraft ADP. So at that point, it's like, what's the—you know, in your head, Andy, what's the—how large is the gap between Hurts and Jaden or Hurts and Burrow?

Like, do you, as a fantasy football player, you feel like, oh, I'm so confident. Yeah, so then why—just wait for Hurts. Yeah. It would be the thesis. So I think he's a fine pick. I think it's fair to put him at the end of the list of the known commodities for fantasy quarterbacks. Yeah, I think you can say both things, and both things can be true, where he's probably not going to be a top-three quarterback anymore because the rushing yardage isn't going to be up at 750-plus. He's not going to be a bad quarterback for fantasy because of the rushing touchdowns.

And so this year, the risk is—it's the lowest ADP we've seen from him in several years. You're getting him in the sixth round. Yeah, I think people have doubts about the offense without A.J. Brown and doubts about, you know, the next player we're going to talk about, which is Saquon Barkley, who had the prolific Super Bowl-winning, incredible 2024 season, 17 20-plus-yard runs, 740-plus-yard runs. This was just truly unbelievable. Last year, I mean, we did not see the explosiveness from him. And so people want to know for fantasy, where does he slot in among the big names? Is a resurgent year in the cards?

Or, you know, I've seen some people talk about Saquon in the context of he's never been great at, like, getting what wasn't—like, not having that offensive line that's setting things up for him. He always wants a home run. Like, going back to the time as a Giant, you know, he—there's plays where you're like, eh, come on, Saquon, just take the four. Take the four. Take the five here. So that's just—that's part of the Saquon Barkley experience. I mean, he was—so there were 55 qualified running backs that had 80 or more attempts last year. He was ranked 48 in stuffed at the line of scrimmage.

And honestly— So that tells me he wants to hit the home run, and it worked really well when all the lanes were wide open. But 48th in rush success rate as well. 40 second in yards after contact per attempt. People were getting bodies on him, and the team could not pass the ball well to start the year. So I think more teams were stacking the box against him, and it was working. Yeah. Could Saquon have a resurgent year? Yes. Lane Johnson being healthy, opening the lanes up. That could happen. I am more skeptical. When I watched Tank Bigsby behind the same offensive line last year, he looked great.

Yeah. And, you know, obviously Saquon is a very, very, very good, you know, an all-time back. But he's 29 years old. How many games did Lane even miss? I feel like he missed almost nothing. We do talk—he was banged up, but I feel like he barely missed any games. I think he missed, like, within a game where he technically started. I'll look that up, but I remember it being a big— I see 10 games for Lane. Oh, okay. Yeah. So he missed a good amount. Big storyline often of how much that hurt their offense. 13 carries inside the 5 for Saquon.

One rushing touchdown. Yikes. So to see the push-tush—tush-push? There you go. I'm really weary around that phrase now. To see those numbers go down and the Saquon rushing touchdowns go down is interesting. Devontae Smith, you know, I think that his ADP—he's a player that his ADP is going to continue to rise into August. That's my only concern about him. I felt like he was— It's going way up. So redraft right now, he's kind of been, you know, in your mocks and things of like this. Oh, yeah. I got Devontae Smith in the wide receiver twice. He's not. You could steal him for a while.

In best ball, he's a top 12 guy. Yeah, I was going to say, he's being drafted. I think that Devontae Smith without A.J. Brown is essentially a wide receiver one for fantasy. He's already finished there before. We've seen it whenever A.J. Brown has missed time that Devontae Smith steps up. But you're not getting a discount on him. It's not surprising people. He's being drafted right now in best ball drafts like a wide receiver one. And when push comes to shove later, I think he's a fine pick. But the upside is kind of built in. I think that the guy on this offense whose upside is not baked into ADP, I don't know why it just doesn't feel exciting at all.

But Makai Lemon. Yeah. Makai Lemon is, one, great. I mean, I think he is a fantastic wide receiver. He was a first-round pick at wide receiver. There was a big three this year. He was one of those big three great wide receivers coming in. And he's coming in to a team that lost A.J. Brown. So it's like, oh, okay. There's ways and avenues. You go, like, this is a good offense. There's an opportunity. And the talent is there. Should he be like a breakout surprising year one player, you're drafting him at a place where that's going to be very impactful and helpful for fantasy football.

Yeah. With training camp on the way, it will be interesting to hear what the utilization of Lemon and Wicks, what they're doing. Because Makai Lemon could really start moving up in ADP right now where he is. Like, that's mid-seventh, late-seventh round for a first-round wide receiver in a team that has a bunch of opportunity. Those are players you should draft. Yeah. The wide receiver room is going to be an interesting one to watch in Philly. I mean, Devontae Smith, the cost is still high. But he's not, like, I think most people are putting, like, George Pickens up ahead of him right now in rankings.

And that's a player where you're like, okay, Devontae Smith should be their bona fide number one. But the volume, differential, Makai Lemon is a discussion. Wicks will watch training camp. But Dallas Goddard, Dallas Goddard is the most sneaky, hidden, possible tight end gym that exists, in my opinion. It is like we're sitting here discussing the gargantuan absence of A.J. Brown. Makai Lemon, Eli Stowers is making no headlines. Makai Lemon has made few. He's been hurt. He's been banged up the hamstring. But a rookie to come in and become a superstar for fantasy versus a tight end being able to be a number two target.

If he's the number two target for the Eagles, there were lots of games last year he was super viable due to other players missing games. Due to touchdowns. Well, he had 11 touchdowns. But I'm just saying, like, this seems like the Dallas Goddard solo project year where you could have a bridge here between Lemon growing into the role and Stowers growing into the role. And here's Goddard getting 90 plus percent of snaps in an offense all year long. I don't mind taking a shot. He's one of the names we've brought up many times. When you're in the last round of your draft and you've done the thing where, hey, you didn't get one of the stud tight ends, so you're just punting the position to the end.

He's in that list of absolutely take a shot at him. 11 touchdowns last year. Now, that was an outlier for him. He's a guy who's usually been like four touchdowns a year. But with A.J. Brown gone and the proof that he can be utilized around the end zone, that's, you know, why not? Why not take a shot at him? He's always been ridiculously hurt, which has jacked up his fantasy finishes as well. If you look at points per game, last year it was his best because of the touchdowns, 10.3. But he's had years of 9.5 before, 9.1. But he always misses time.

I mean, he played 10 games the year before, 14, 12, 15, 11. That's been his kind of problem. But I just think that if you're getting really, really late and you want to take somebody that you might just be able to leave in that spot, you're taking them as a streamer, but you might be able to leave them there all year long. I think Goddard is in that category. Yeah. So they open with Washington on the road against Tennessee, on the road against Chicago, then Rams and Jacksonville after that. But so those first three weeks, I mean, it's interesting. I'm curious, Andy.

So there's three old tight ends. They're going back to back to back. And they're tight end 13, 14, 15. So they're basically the undrafted, the first undrafted tight ends or near the end of your draft. Kelsey. So Kelsey's one of them. Andrews and Goddard. Yeah. I mean, I have Goddard leaps and bounds ahead of those guys. I mean, Goddard is my number 10. Oh, really? My number 10 overall tight end. I've got Kelsey at 17. I've got Andrews at 21. I'll just take Kelsey of that group. Yeah. You seem to be pretty Kelsey. Kelsey kind. I'm just okay with the he.

I think Goddard's going to get. I mean, he's still at 60 catches. Sure. Travis Kelsey still had 76 to 850 yards. Yeah. I understand. But he's, I mean, he is clearly on his last. Yes. This is the end for Travis. But as of right now. You're taking the PPR. It's like, yeah, Kelsey's probably still the number two target. Yeah. We may have to bet that later on. Kelsey will probably have more work. And then if you talk touchdowns, obviously you can have 11 from Goddard last year. But around the goal line, they'll still look for Kelsey. Yeah. I mean, that's the one thing.

McKay Lim is not a big dude. No. So AJ Brown has been that dude for a while. And I don't know. I just have a good feeling about Goddard. I don't like it. I don't want it. It's just there. It seems like the obvious pick on that roster that where we want to find somebody else to me. We'll take a break. We'll talk Cowboys. What's up, Foot Clan? I have been in the tech and media business for my entire life. I built hundreds and hundreds of websites. And so one of the things that was the fundamental, most important thing about making it official,

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And they're also on the forefront of just turning that around and making an amazing website right away. You're talking about the opportunity to use AI. They have this Wix Harmony One prompt. Build a site for your company, for your league, for whatever you've got going on. You can make it official by picking up a domain name with Wix, and they make it super simple. You get business email and the website, all of that stuff. So you can claim your domain at Wix.com. That's Wix.com. The Dallas Cowboys. I wonder if you could have remembered their record last year. Do you know it?

Have you looked in the doc? No, I didn't look at their record. Okay. Yeah, try to remember. Because they're just a weird team, man. Yes. Gosh. Last year, because we are covered in the Pickens and Lamb and Dak and the offensive numbers. But what was their record, Jay? Man, I feel like it was near .500. 7-9? Yeah. Was it? 7-9-1. But that's not even a complete record. Oh, yeah, because 8-8 is 16 now. I was doing old school. No, I really didn't. Their projected win total last year was 7-1-1. It's 8-1-1 this year. Warren Sharp has them with the fourth toughest schedule for 2020.

Boo! We don't like that. They were number two in yards per game and five in points per game. They were a terrible defense. And here we go. Brian Schottenheimer, season number two. Hot stat from Kyle. He coached all 17 games. Kyle? Kyle's coaching now? No. Brian Schottenheimer coached all 17 games with a visor on. Well, Kyle's not here, so I wondered if he was coaching. He has the visor stats for Brian Schottenheimer. Dude loves the visor. Clayton Adams, number... He's just a visor, but you can see him frequently with a backwards visor. Backwards visor. Which is not normal, but it is cool, man.

That was normal for me as a sophomore with my bleached hair. Did you go backwards visor? Bro. Yeah. You weren't cool unless you were backwards visor. Sideways visor? No, I wasn't that cool. Okay. You know, you talked about Mike Booth, the tough schedule coming up for the Cowboys. But that is a potentially good thing for them. They do have the Houston Texans in their fourth game. But this isn't necessarily the most difficult schedules for offenses to play against. Sure. This is good teams. And I'm looking at the totality. And they've got a lot of games that could be absolute shootouts and barn burners.

You know, the 49ers are going to represent a very tough schedule. But against... When you're like the Cowboys and you don't have a good defense, and you've got a great offense, you're going to be able to score on almost all of these teams. And so, I don't know, maybe a tough schedule from a wins and losses perspective is good for fantasy football. So, let's talk through the pieces here. Dak, we've heard you sing his praises throughout the offseason. CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, I think there's been the fun debate amongst, you know, pundits about who's the better player as an actual wide receiver today.

You know, I still have CeeDee Lamb higher. I think he's going to get the first look on a lot of plays. But George Pickens had a special year. And we know how he was much better with Lamb off the field. Lamb struggled with the drops. Both of these guys are certifiably studs for this year. Yes, they are both number ones. I think they are both worth the price of admission. With both of them staying healthy. And then you also have the nitro upside. If the cowboy you don't have misses time, then yours is going to be even more valuable. So, I'm just...

Them with Dak and the two of them working together, it's an extremely exciting offense. And the fact that Javante is not a nothing burger really, really helps as well. This is, like... I'm very excited. I'm drafting... I'm fine with CeeDee Lamb at wide receiver 5. And I'm very okay with George at wide receiver 11. CeeDee Lamb is fantastic. He's 27 years old. He is in his absolute peak prime. He was an A in consistency over his last 17 games. That includes a game where he played almost 0% of the snaps. And he hasn't been... He wasn't scoring touchdowns last year.

He was still great for fantasy. He's obviously got the upside of scoring the touchdowns. You know, we saw 12 touchdowns a couple years ago. CeeDee Lamb is their alpha. And I think he's got a lot to prove coming off of an injured year. So, I have... I still put CeeDee Lamb in, you know, basically in a tier A, tier 1. You know, JSN, CeeDee Lamb, to me, they're near each other. You cheering him above, George? What's that? So, you have him... Oh, he is definitely a tier above, George, to me. Without a doubt. Nah. I mean... I think you... I mean, he is for me, too, Mike.

And I like George. I just... Yeah, that's not an anti-George take. He was a my guy last year. But when they were both on the field, it really was... You know, it was CeeDee Lamb getting it done. Just the comps with both of them on the field together. That's just... The sample of them both on the field is very difficult. Because it was like the first two games. Okay? So, that's... What did George do in those first two? Let me pull up those stats. So, week one was not great. Week two was solid for George Pickens. But I'm saying, like, that's his first two games as a cowboy.

So, of course, Dak is going to go to CeeDee Lamb to the tune of 13 and 11 targets. Then George goes absolutely nuclear in the time that CeeDee Lamb is off the field. And then when they were both back on, it was really both of them just being very good. Until the end of the season, there was kind of a slump. Let me bring up something that I don't think is very fun about the experience with Dallas that presented itself last year. Dak was the quarterback five. We know the counting stats are going to be there. He passed for over 4,500 yards last year despite missing CeeDee at 30 touchdowns.

But the weird thing about Dak last year was that, look, this team's projected, what, seven and a half wins? When they won the ballgame last year, he averaged 24 fantasy points. When they lost, he averaged 12. So, half the fantasy points in his losses is the largest gap between any of the top 15 quarterbacks. This was a, like, when it's good, it's great. And when they're losing, he was not a dependable enough fantasy quarterback. Does that trend concern you, or is it something that you see? It doesn't destroy me because, number one, you don't have to pay up for Dak.

Dak remains one of the best values at the quarterback position. One of those games that is really dragging down the average. He played half of week 18 against the Giants where he scored .7 fantasy point. So, that's involved another horrific game on the road against Denver. So, it's like, that stuff makes sense. And, you know, when you have, when you're playing a fantasy quarterback like Dak, and it's week eight on the road against the Denver Broncos, you go, hmm. Maybe I don't start him. Maybe I don't play Dak this week. And that's, I think, a benefit to him. If you take him as a, what quarterback is he going as right now?