Starts of the Week + Week 17 Breakdown, RAIN Alert! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 12/26

and Cleveland's defense is 31st against fantasy wideouts, I think Tyreek is a very safe play this week. If I could take Nico Collins out of my lineup and swap in Tyreek today, I would love to do that, but I can't. That's fair. I'm going to go with the old man who's been on fire. I'm not talking about Adam Thielen, who's a fine start in himself. Or Al Borland, who's also winning a lot of games. There you go. I'm going with Keenan Allen against Seattle tonight. Keenan, I mean, he's made a believer out of me. You know, he was looking old and moldy,

and in reality, it was just a Shane Waldron problem. Old and moldy. I like it. Since the offensive coordinator change of week 11, he's the wide receiver nine in fantasy points with Caleb Williams, 15-and-a-half fantasy points per game since that change. In that six-week span, he has been targeted on 28% of his routes, 32% of his team's first read. The matchup against Seattle is good. There should be a little bit of rain. But the thing is, guys, like, you know, we're talking about, oh, there's rain for my players. There's rain for your opponent's players, too. Here are the games right now

with at least, you know, some rain. We're on watch. If you have a player from Seattle, Chicago, Denver, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, the Giants, to Titans, or Jacksonville, or the Jets, or Buffalo, or Carolina, or Tampa Bay Buccaneers, or if Dallas, or Philly, or if you've got the Dolphins, or the Browns, or Atlanta, or the Commanders, any one of those teams, there should be a little bit of water out there. I just checked the 10-day for Arizona. We got nothing. No rain. I would like some rain. Yeah. I would like some rain. Arizona right now, this, like, Christmas shouldn't be in the 70s,

and we're a desert here. People shouldn't live here. It was beautiful yesterday. It was. It was amazing. All right. My wide receiver start of the week, I think it's T. Higgins. And yeah, and I know, this one feels a little sketchy. That's why I'm highlighting his name. He left last week's game. He pulled a full Shady McCoy, where you're like, well, that was it. That's the season-ending injury for T. Higgins, who's going into a contract year. And then he came back into the game. And so, he's the wide receiver eight in fantasy points per game. That's how well T. Higgins has played.

In fact, Kyle pulled this one up. T. Higgins and Puka have both played 10 games this year. T is five and a half points fewer than Puka. Like, we all look at what Puka's doing. We're like, this dude's balling out. T. Higgins is right there with him. Five and a half total fantasy points? That's what Kyle has been saying. Like, T. Higgins has been really, really good. It's just, he's really, really missing sometimes. Oh, yeah, yeah. Of course. And obviously, that's not points. That's like total points, right? Yeah. So, he has some more explosive games. But, so you're doubling down

on the Denver downpour. Well, here's the thing. This was all prepared before I was made aware that the storm could be what some are thinking that it could be. But, like, but T. Higgins, this was more of a, if everything is good, I think that T. Higgins is going to be in a really good spot. The Denver secondary has actually not been strong against fantasy wide receivers. Like, we look at them as a great defense because they are. But, since week nine, Denver is 20, 28th in schedule adjusted points to wide receivers. Dead last in passing yards allowed. We saw what Jameis

was able to do against that Denver Broncos defense. Just saying, in a good climate scenario, I think that this game could really go out. Mike, give us your tight end as well. This one, look, Trey McBride. I love it. This is Trey McBride who was, did you guys see the video of Trey McBride leaving the field? He had a lot of choice words for his team. He was, big time mad. And I think that this is the perfect situation for him. Is it because they didn't use him at all? Yeah, I think that that's part of it. In a loss

while he was wide open all the time. In an overtime loss? I think that this is the squeaky wheel that Trey McBride gets right back on board to being an elite tight end. Rams run a ton of zone, allowing the third highest fantasy points per drop back versus zone. And McBride kills zone. Like, this is his specialty. Kind of like how Travis Kelsey finds a spot. They've been doing that more and more with Trey McBride. So this is not a time where I am scared of what happened last week. Jason. Oh, it's you and me together, hand in hand. Are you letting me in?

Oh, absolutely. You're letting me in on your start of the week? Yeah. All right. Chica Conquo, baby. It's the only guy you found. Oh, oh, oh. There we go. Just need about four touchdowns, Chig. After last night. Well, hey, 10 targets in week 15, 11 targets a week, 16. So can we get 12 targets this week? Maybe. Over the last three weeks with Mason Rudolph, he has been targeted on 32% of his routes. That is the same as Jamar Chase. He's seen 27% of the Titans' first read targets. That is better than Mike Evans for the Bucs. He is averaging

0.52 fantasy points per route run. That is the same as Drake London. And the matchup against Jacksville is fantastic. Chig should be in a lot of lineups. Like, you know, if you don't have one of the premier studly tight ends, Chig's the best next man up. All right. And yeah, I do wonder if some people, because it seemed like something you could do, they're counting on Chig and they binged Kelsey. Oh, and I would have done it. I'd suggest it. I mean, that's what the game was so surprising to have Travis Kelsey go from just the 30 yards that he's been giving you

for us for weeks now. And then he has the explosive game. Brutal. All right. Those are our starts of the week. We'll take a break. We'll hit the forecast. A reminder that tonight's game was previewed on our Tuesday pre-Christmas episode. So you can go back and check that out. Let's jump in. It's time for Fantasy Forecast presented by DraftKings Sportsbook. Well, the forecast has a double meaning all the more this week as we get into championship week with some rain, some rain in the forecast. The Chargers at 9-6 go to New England to take on the Patriots who are 3-12.

The DK Sportsbook line here, Chargers minus 4-1-2. The over-under is 42-1-2. And here we go. The Chargers clinch a playoff spot with a win or a Colts loss and a Miami loss. So they're right on the edge, they're right on the cusp, and they are favored, but not by as many points. I was blown away at this line. Yeah, I think this is a little bit surprising to me. The Chargers only 4-1-1-2 point favorites on the road. I mean, I'd take them in the points. I don't really have an almost upset inkling here. It's just, it hasn't been great for them

lately. Well, they are hoping to get J.K. Dobbins back on the field. Greg Roman said, quote, I thought he was going to be an interesting start, sit decision because I think he's fine. He's had the month off. If his knee is healthy and he looks good in practice and he's activated, I expect him to get the work, but it's really hard to put someone straight off the IR into your starting lineup when you go, oh, is he going to come in and get eight carries? Yeah. Well, let me ask you a really tough one there, which is Tony Pollard, been banged

up, been limping off the field at times, or JK Dobbins. I would go Dobbins there. The matchup is really good for Dobbins and we've seen Pollard the last couple weeks try to play through these injuries and I expect him to be out there again, but he hasn't really been able to. So Dobbins, I think he should be fine. I think there's a couple hard decisions at running back in this game because Ramondre's rushing lines at 42 and a half, he's been much better at home, but his head coach once again came out this morning and said, like, we might bench

him. Like, he set a precedent in the locker room of saying, look, we got to protect the football. Ramondre fumbled the football. So he said, it's a possibility we're going to bench him in favor of Antonio Gibson. Last time he said this, Gibson got the first carry and then it was back to Ramondre. Yeah, it was fine. They benched him. But I mean, there's a risk, right? Like if Ramondre does get an opportunity and he does fumble, then you're going to see just a complete bust of a week, which is still a possibility with Ramondre at any moment in time.

he was double digits last week. Gibson is a player that I'm adding as an emergency running back start. if I have, if I'm going kind of into the weekend with injured players that may or may not go, maybe it's Connor, maybe it's Pollard. That's fair. I'm going to add Gibson as an emergency play because there, you know, some of those guys have already gone like Jalen Warren would have been an emergency play for me, but he played already. So do I want to play them? Not really. Yeah. I did have a dream that Hunter Henry scored like 45 points. It's not a great

matchup for him. It's probably just a dream, huh? Probably just a dream. If matchup is bad, but 22% target share, I mean volumes there. I mean, Ladd McConkie sitting at a receiving line of 71 and a half. I mean, this is a player that is kind of automatic at this point. Yeah. I mean, I can't imagine what the line is for like 50 plus on him. Oh, it's got to be like minus 300. I would say, I mean, this is a player who hasn't had fewer than 50 yards since week seven. So that's just like a layup. It does feel

like an end of the year layup. Yeah. No, Ladd is in everybody's lineup. If you've had him, he's just been too consistent. He is the clear leader of this wide receiver room. The matchup, I expect it to come early. And, you know, the Patriots don't give up a ton of fantasy points wide receivers, but it's not because they shut wide receivers down. It's because they're usually at the second half in a game script where they're not needed that much. So maybe it's good that it's a smaller line here of four and a half points for the Chargers. And maybe the

Patriots can make it a little bit more interesting. Now it's Thursday, December 26th. So consider that when we talk weather in this game, the Broncos at nine and six, the Bengals seven and eight, we've already alluded to it. The DraftKings Sportsbook line since he minus three and a half, the over under not changing. That's encouraging to me. Still 49 and a half. The report we had earlier was that rains likely washout potential. I saw a gust up to 30, 20 to 30 miles an hour. That's not what I'm seeing now. Right now I'm seeing chance of precipitation at 70%. I barely got that

word right. And I'm only seeing six, six mile an hour winds. Oh, that would be fantastic for a game that could really have a lot of offensive outpouring. I mean, the, this was the game going into those words. Yeah. Don't say outpour. I thought I matched pretty well. It's a rain pour. Yeah. If there's not wind, I'm not that, I'm not that freaked out. You might have a downpour during the game that makes it passing prohibitive for a period of time. but again, you don't want to overreact to this because what are the real choices that you have? Are you binging

Joe Burrow based on any weather report? Are you binging Jamar Chase based on any weather report? I cannot. I don't think that. No, you're Jalen McMillan instead of Chase. No, you're not going to move off of those guys at all. I will say like if Jalen hurts, if you're the Jalen hurts manager, Bo Nix was a really good pivot that you could have picked up off of the waivers to play in your championship. that might be a name where I, I get a little scared about a rookie. Oh, I'd go Kyler or Darnold or Purdy or Goff or any of those guys

over Bo Nix with any weather threat. You're right on that one. Ben though. And reminder, the over under is holding at 49 and a half. So Burrow, Chase and Chase Brown, who could be the beneficiary of rain, are all locks in your lineup. Higgins, been limited, but then a full practice on Wednesday. He's going to be back out there. What about Cortland Sutton? I think he is receiving line 65 and a half. Is it really? 65 and a half. Sutton is right back in there. You got to play him. Man, that's the last two weeks. He had 32 receiving yards

and then he had 50 receiving yards. 32 yards on nine targets. I mean, is that comforting or for me, it is because the volume is far. I mean, he caught 33 percent of his passes when on the year he's catching 60 percent. No, I get it. I'm just saying if you add in the weather, like we were talking about, you don't pivot off of Jamar Chase. You're not going to pivot off of Burrow, but a Cortland Sutton, if it turns out that this is a really like, it's like a, this is the crazy downpour, high wind game. If that happens,

I feel like I would rather start a McMillan. You know, Cortland Sutton is a guy who you could say kind of got you here, but really, if you're in the championship, he didn't get you here the last two weeks through the playoffs. You had to overcome him. And I think a lot of the managers who have him might be going, I'm looking for another option. Yeah, I just think the worry is over emphasizing the weather. I think if you got right down to the wire and it looked horrific, then maybe you're right. But otherwise, I wouldn't want to lose with my

best players on the bench. So if you are a Sutton manager, are you looking to have other weapons prepared for right down to the wire? I mean, I would hope that you're in that situation where you've got a flex-worthy player on your bench going into Sunday morning no matter what. I guess it's a Saturday game, right? Yeah, Saturday 4.30. That's actually really nice. So that makes it, you'll have that information and then you can make an adjustment. The Cardinals are 7-8, taking on the 9-6 Rams. Now real quick, before we go, how much of not worrying about Cortland Sutton, Andy,

is you wanting Jeremy to play Cortland Sutton against you? It's tougher because I got chasing the same game. So it's like, I just feel like they're going to be both equally neutralized where whatever happens, he's got the chase on the other side. I mean, what are the odds that Cortland Sutton's affected by the weather because it rains when they have the ball and then it's really clear skies for chase. Can you tell me about that? Because I would like that. That's unlikely. Unlikely. As a meteorologist. Is there any chance that Jamar Chase has rainproof hands? No. Okay. Well, I mean,

yeah, I mean, like the gloves are probably pretty, like his hands won't be wet. Both teams have already said that they're practicing with wet footballs this week and doing all that jazz. At least Peyton said that. Come on, dude. Mike is tilting. Mike is real. I've never seen him tilt like this. No, because it's so because it's I am a it's very well known of my stance on big dome that I am for it and for if it if that actually happens and all everything we've been doing comes down to that and you're like, oh, well, it's real rainy. That just

that feels really, really bad. It's it's impossible to like unring the fantasy bell because we've been doing it for 15, 16, 17 years. But I I would love to know what like the natural thought about those games would be without any fantasy context. like if you were a football fan, I, you know, what, how would you view these games at this time of the year compared to the way we view them? Because through fantasy, we just want to see the players that we got be able to provide for us on those. Mine really isn't actual. It's an NFL lens, too,

because like where, what do they do with the Super Bowl guys? Right. What do they do with the biggest game of the year? They make sure there's no weather because they want the best performance possible. Yes, I like to watch one snow game every once in a while. You're like, oh, it's fun. But for everything to come down to can your team actually perform when it's raining? It's just a pretty strong argument. It feels rough. It's a pretty strong argument. You guys see the video of the new Buffalo Stadium? Yeah. Some of the things that they're doing? I thought it

was kind of, I mean, because they did not want to remove weather from the equation in Buffalo. but they also are doing things like they've got very little exposure to wind and very little exposure to the crowd being soaking wet and the field being warm and de-iced and stuff. So they're doing some things there that I think way more expensive than just putting a roof on. It actually is more expensive what they're doing. Cardinals 7-8, Rams 9-6, Rams 7-point home favorites. The over-under is 47-1-2. Rams have a high implied point total of 27.3. If they win and Seattle loses, they are the