Wildcard Players! Breakout or Bust? - Fantasy Football Podcast for 5/28

Dylan and Jones had two apiece. That is so bad. With backfields with more than 350 attempts, that's the fewest rushing touchdowns since 2016. So they let Aaron Jones walk. They bring in Josh Jacobs, a guy who just the year before last led the entire league in rushing. So it's like this is, he's coming into a situation where they have opportunity to score touchdowns. They're on a great offense. We've seen Aaron Jones for years be successful here. This could easily be a top five running back this season in fantasy football. And I've seen some people who are drafting him like that, that are drafting him essentially very confident that he is going to be great. I'm on the other side. I'm a little scurred because, you know, efficiency-wise, he might have either had a bad season or be trending to the new normal. Last year was terrible. His yards per carry.

were 56th out of 69 running backs. His forced missed tackle rate was 51st out of 69. His explosive rush rate was 54th out of 69. Also, he's coming into year, years six and seven are the largest percentage of fantasy point declines for running backs. So he's already, he's, At that point, he's not at the age cliff, but he's at the season where you see a huge decline coming off super inefficient running where he didn't look good. And then you go, well, he was in a bad situation. You know, he was playing for the Raiders, bad team, bad offensive line. Well, the last four weeks, you had Zemir Wright, White running 4.7 a carry looked just fine. So they gave him a contract, but it's a one-year contract that go out and they sign or they draft Marshaun Lloyd.

with a day two draft capital. And so if he is ineffective, inefficient, he'll be in a time share. I don't think he's just going to get, you know, thrown to the curb, but he'll be in potentially a three-way time share now. Point of clarity, I know what you meant, but for those listening, it was a four-year deal that he signed with the Green Bay Packers. Yeah. It's not a one-year deal. No, no, no. You said he signed a one-year contract. I said that with my words. He did. Yes. He signed a four-year contract where it's all front-loaded, the guaranteed money, the dead cap. Essentially, if he stinks this season, they'll cut him and move on. And so they have their out. It's a brilliant. He's a pretty big cap hit next year. It's still movable. It's where you're able to get out. So I'm just worried that Josh Jacobs is going to be in a timeshare. You've seen LaFleur talk about.

Well, like when he drafted Marshall Lloyd, he was talking about how he uses multiple backs. He's always used multiple backs. He believes in a multiple back system. And so we've seen Aaron Jones with success in it, but we've also seen Aaron Jones not get a lot of volume. If Josh Jacobs does not get a lot of volume and is not, I mean, Aaron Jones is as efficient as any running back we've seen in the last decade, that's not really been Josh Jacobs game, is pure efficiency, certainly not this last year. What makes him a wild card to me is the fact that you have this year of taking over the league that predated it. Like Josh Jacobs was the best running back 1653 yards the year before the struggle year, which is crazy. Like if you just took that year out of his career art, you'd say, well, he really wasn't that different than what he had been for a carry, 3.9 a carry the previous two years.

But you had this one year where he jumped up to, you know, he had the big plays, right, like the Seattle game and these huge long runs, 86-yard touchdowns, and he's 4.9 of carry. Yeah. And was it, was that year the outlier? I mean, it seems like it right now. Yeah, it does. So. If you draft him, I hope that was the outlier. I mean, we called, we Mike called him Fat Thor going in because, you know, holding out deep into camp, maybe that was the issue. Well, sorry. Go ahead. I'm just saying if that was the cause of the inefficiency and, you know, he wasn't in the shape he was used to being in, I don't necessarily buy that. I don't think he was sitting at home doing nothing. You know, I think he was still working out trying to stay in shape. Yeah, a lot of tumult that year. Right now where he's going in drafts, he's going to be an option for people that drafts one of the top wide receivers. Because if you end up Lamb Hill, Chase, Jefferson Brown,

who are, by the way, ADP 2 through 6 right now, five whiteouts. When your turn comes back around at that was a 2-3 turn, that's about where Jacobs is going. So either you took McCaffrey and he's your RB2 there or you took a whiteout potentially and you're coming back around and deciding if you want to go with Jacobs as your RB1, which would make him, it's a wildcard RB1. Because there's potential great upside, and there's also that stink from last year that is emanating. It's massive risk for his ADP. All right, the first guy I want to talk about, could we be back? I do not know yet, but it is Mr. Antonio Gibson, new running back for the New England Patriots, who currently is a complete afterthought in drafts. I am seeing right now an ADP of...

RB 50 on Sleeper and RB 51 on underdog. So this player is not being sought after at all. But here's kind of both sides of the case. He turns 26 entering year five, you know, kind of similar stuff with Josh Jacobs. So he's not, he hasn't aged out just yet. He is actually younger than, than the incumbent under Ramandre Stevenson. So the age, between the two of them. You can't really argue it. And it was a three-year deal, $5 million guaranteed for Antonio Gibson. That's not a ton of cash, but it was also one of those, if you're trying to read the tea leaves of the actions, it was immediate. The Patriots went and signed him or got an agreement from him right off of the, in the tampering period. And the pros are...

The offensive system we are told that's going to be launched in New England, you know, the Alex Van Pelt Cleveland system. So it's a lot of outside zone runs where Antonio Gibson has far more experience with that as the rushing scheme than Ramandre Stevenson. And that stuff does matter. There's some running backs that they excel in power schemes and man. And then there's some guys who are just their great in zone. So. Gibson, he might have an upper hand there between the competition of, oh, I already know how to do this. And then on top of that, while Antonio Gibson for fantasy football last year, it was really just a couple spot weeks here or there when he's filling in. But in terms of efficiency, second in yards created per touch, fourth in yards per touch, sixth in fantasy points per opportunity, ninth in PFF's elusive rating. Like he's still...

had juice on the field. He just, he wasn't, he had lost his spot as the starter. And where, where I've started to be thinking more and more lately is like, could Antonio Gibson actually just take the job? Take the job from Remandre Stevenson. And I think there is a world that exists. He's, Antonio Gibson is a far more electric pass catcher for his career. You know, he's at 7.2 yards per catch. And, over the past couple of years, Ramandre is just barely over six. So Antonio is better there. Last year was atrocious on the ground for Ramandre Stevenson. Let me ask the question. Please do. Do you think that Mike is the only one that thinks that in this year? I think that Mike is the only one. If you're including Kyle's on the line, Brooks is here, the deucers are here, I would hope that Mike is the only one. I am definitely not going to be the only one. Because of Kyle? Yeah. Yeah. Kyle is in on this? Yeah. Dude.

When you said back, I was trying to, when you said he might be back, I was like, what do you mean? I mean rookie year. No, no, no. I'm not saying. It is crazy to think he had 257 rush attempts as a sophomore. I'm not saying top 12 running back, but I'm saying a guy who's being drafted in the 50s who, in my opinion, this is an ambiguous back. That's where he's being drafted? Yeah, RB 50. Oh, okay. You said the 50s. I thought you meant like of his position. Like this is a guy who's not even really being drafted.

And so that's like, that's the positive case for him. Of course, the negative is right now the New England Patriots are the favorite to be the worst. And over the last six years, the team with the worst record, their running back fantasy points are 30th, 31st, 31st. This feels like another way of insulting Romandre though. Like you don't like what Romandre brings to the tape. I thought remandre was was terrible last year. And the fact that they immediately went out and got Antonio Gibson, the fact that he is a better pass catcher, more dynamic, can make things happen should, like sometimes you need a, sometimes your offense works, sometimes you need a player, and you say, please go do something for me. And Antonio Gibson can do that where Romandre can't. So I'm saying over the course of the year, there are a bunch of running backs that are being drafted that probably.

Gibson should go ahead of as flyers. Like Chase Brown and Gibson. Brown's going to go in the 11th round. Gibson's probably undrafted, right? Which one are you saying you would rather have? I'd rather have Gibb. No, I'm just saying that Gibson is equal in my mind in terms of upside to Chase Brown. Chase Brown does nothing. He's not, he can't pass protect, he can't, he's barely involved in the offense. Like, to me, That's a misprice. Yeah. That's a huge part of the argument is the ADP because, Jay, you're over here. Your vibes and your words are, I'm out. You are O-U-T on Antonio Gibson. That is great. And yet, compared to his ADP, you are soups in. Well, yes and no. I mean, it's kind of like what Andy's saying. When you're drafting someone at running back 50, I'm looking for something that can really explode and become.

a high end, you know, some rookie backup that just needs an injury ahead of him and he can go. I presume that the New England Patriots offense is going to be bad. Yeah. I also think that Antonio Gibson was immediately gone after in free agency because this is replacing Zeke, not Ramandre. This is, you know, Duran Mayo is part of this team. Ramondre was the guy. This isn't a new, I mean, it's a new coaching staff, but it's not like an entirely new regime that, that was not part of the human beings there. I'm shocked that you want to have this conversation, Mike. I really am. I feel like just it might have been better for your emotional health to just set him out to see. You know what I mean? He's been there. He's been on a life raft just chilling out in the ocean. Push him back out. Maybe we will. You know what I mean? Like if you're on the boat and you're like, you have a choice. You'll be like, come on. I'll save you. Or next man gets him. I would pull him in so that.

my arrow that is on fire could could hit the oh you're going viking i'm just good but i'm so you straight down i'm not like i'm trying to like i'm trying to like i just don't think i think gibson is a uh low odds waiver wire guy that if remandre gets hurt yeah that's that's how i see but the range of i mean that's the thing we're talking about wild cards here we're talking about we're not talking about players who have a clear and obvious path path to success or are obviously going to suck these are guys where it's like yeah

There is a very large range of outcomes. But I think for him to hit his higher end range of outcomes, it has to either be an injury. I see it as an injury to remandre or he has to completely overtake him and become the guy and make Ramandre pretty irrelevant. And I don't see, I don't see that one happening. That's where it's like. That's where I'm leaving the door open for that. Yeah. All right. Quick break back with three more. All right. I feel really guilty. He's taking. this second wild card option because yeah is Jason's dude he's always been Jason's dude thank you he's loved him from what high school college uh through the NFL great school Zach Moss I mean Jason's my dude Jason's guy Zach Moss instantly replaces Joe Mixin in the Cincinnati offense was a usage monster when Jonathan Taylor wasn't available it was a it was really fun on the show because we'd come here every week

And Zach Moss had done more stuff. Yeah. And it was like, how is this happening? 22 opportunities a game. Did you say steroids? They did. I would never. For your allegations, they did, they never caught him. So maybe he's just really good at that. It was impressive what he was able to do. And you talk about, you know, have to imagine he was tested too. Because of course he was. They all get tested. Yeah, but some guys you go, wait a minute. Wait, if we got to test that dude. Well, you would have tested it. Oh, I would have tested them every day. I would have watched. Look at the offseason for Cincinnati and the wildcard that Zach Moss is. I don't have them ranked super high, but I do see a range of outcomes for him that is pretty good. I mean, Joe Mixon, while looking bad, produced great fantasy numbers in Cincinnati for the last two years. By great, do you mean like he was the running back five last year? I do mean that. Yeah, because that's absurd, but it's true.

And so Zach Moss is a direct one-to-one replacement for Joe Mixon. I just brought up Chase Brown. He's never used in passing situations. He was asked to pass block eight times. Zach Moss can do that. He can catch the football. They basically identified a cheaper Joe Mixon that they could bring in that doesn't have the pedigree and the attention, but produced. I mean, he was a good producer in Indianapolis when he had an opportunity to do it. They run out of the shotgun a ton. This is one of the things Kyle was looking up. But when you look at the running back leaders in rushing yardage in shotgun, Zach Moss was number three last year. So they obviously saw a fit. Like that is one thing that we identified in the offseason. They basically said, all right, we're done with Joe Mixing. He's vacating 257 carries. So much opportunity. 64 targets. And we're going to draft nobody. We're not going to draft anybody. We're just going to bring in Zach Moss.

pay him not a lot, have him one to one replace Joe Mixon, run a bunch of shotgun, let Joe Burrow be our offense, and Zach Moss will be out there all the time. And so, you know, I think it's going to be one of those things that comes down to how often he gets into the end zone and how much he's used in the passing game. But I think he's a huge wild card, just like Zmir White is. Like he's not on our... Yeah, he could be on this show. He could easily be on this show. But those two guys are the, they're a match made in heaven. I hate...

how in I am on sack moss right now. Like it bothers you? Yeah. Welcome aboard, brother. Because... You have him just outside your... Yes. RB1 territory. Yeah, and that ranking, I'm sure, will fluctuate over the offseason. We have a RB20 as a group. But it's just my overall thoughts on the Bengals backfield, like the previous one of, I don't think that Joe Mixon is a great running back. I think he's fine. I think he is just an average running back. And so you put, then the argument of talent that Zach Moss has to replicate, to me, the barrier of entries, just be an average running back and you will be good for fantasy football on the Bengals. And they like those because they used Somagy Piron all those years. They sure did. And I don't, I know there's, Chase Brown has his, has his hive. I just, I don't, I don't think he's anything more than a, a role player who,

Well, like he'll get a couple receptions a game and impact things. But looking at the workload, I don't see how it's not what Joe Mixon had. Cut a couple percentage points off of that and just give it to Zach Moss. Among all running backs was 60 plus pass blocks. Zach Moss was the number one. Dude. Inefficiency. Yeah. You think they want to keep Joe Burrow upright? Why even put Brown on the field and third down? Just keep Zach Moss out there. No, Trayvion Williams played ahead of. of Brown on third down last year. So this is Zach Moss's backfield. So look, it could all collapse. Like the Zach Moss prophecies Jason held so dear to his heart before last year could all return to form. Most carries inside the 10 last year amongst running backs. Joe Mixing. Yeah, usually when you bet on those mid round running backs who are getting a lot of opportunity handed to them, but they have not been.

successful. They have not been the guy. They've been average to below average running backs for their career. Those are bad bets. That's the dead zone. That's chock full of the running back dead zone. Like when Peyton Barber was that? Yeah. Yeah. Or Alexander. Madison last year. So this is a scary pick, the range of outcomes. You could see how it doesn't work. But at the same time, those players are often not on great offenses. And this is an offense that you would expect with Joe Burrow. there should be very good. I'm just so happy to stay in on Zach Moss. As you always have been. Yeah. All right. Who's, uh, who's, uh, Jason's up? Jason. All right. My final wild card pick is a man who has barely done anything in his two years in the NFL, but his opportunity is telling his pedigree should be excellent. It is Jameson Williams.

Wide receiver for the Detroit Lions. Jamison Williams was my number two wide receiver in his draft class pre-NFL draft. His talent that he showed in Alabama was unbelievable. There's a reason why he was drafted as a first round pick. His speed is world class. It's, you know, one of the top fastest wide receivers currently in the NFL. He's playing on a high-powered offense. They lost Josh Reynolds. de facto, wide receiver two from last year. They did not replace him. They did not draft anybody to replace them. The verbiage on Jameson Williams has been better and better. The coach speak over James' career. Kyle's been tweeting this out four years. It's so funny. They have badmouthed him. They have said positive quotes that are like laughably negative. Yeah, backhanded compliments. However.

The recent quotes, and this is what's nice, the trajectory of, you know that this coaching staff will talk crap about Jameson Williams. We've seen him do it. We've seen him say, well, some guys just take longer. You know, he's got to prove himself. He's got to be reliable, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Well, now they're saying that he is a man on a mission. And so that's what you want to hear. You want to hear that he's just completely motivated, working his tail off, and he's got the opportunity ahead of him. He should be. pretty much a full-time wide receiver for the Detroit Lions. We have had seasons of Khalif Raymond relevance, of Josh Reynolds relevance, like with the talent that we saw coming into the league, this should be Jameson Williams here. Absolutely. And this should. It really should. Like this should be something. Like not good. It should. Yes. This should be something that later on when people didn't draft him, we're all looking at it and we say.

Yeah, that was obvious. Yeah, it was obvious. But nobody did it. The first round wide receiver with exceptional speed for a team that needs a deep threat who's now on the field all the time should rock. He made big plays behind the line of scrimmage too. Yeah. But, but, yeah. Here's the other side of the coin. It's not pretty. Through two years. He's done virtually nothing. Here is a list of first round wide receivers who have never had a 14 point fantasy game through two years. Uh-oh. Okay. Buckle up. Buckle up. Here's a list. There's six of them. Uh-oh. Jamison Williams is one. TBD, we'll say TBD. John Ross, Laquan Treadwell, Philip Dorset, Nelson Aguilar, and Kevin White. Just a boop. Barf. That is a list of busts of wide receivers who never.

became a first round. Yeah. Pay off. So it's like, I don't blame anyone for bypassing Jameson Williams and saying, look, I've seen him not get it done on the NFL field for two years. The list is so bad. The list is so bad. Nelson Aguilar is the highlight. Oh, yeah. I mean, Nelson. He still plays. He shows that chart to other people as like, look how much. Look what I accomplished. Look what I overcame. The biggest problem that I have is that. We say, okay, the opportunity is here for James Williams. The problem is the opportunity has been here for James and Williams. We just talked about Josh Reynolds left. The opportunity was just beat Josh Reynolds. Just be better than Josh Reynolds. He couldn't do it. Also, he was on the field. When he played, he was on the field for more than 50% of the snaps already. He did jack squat. So it's like, okay, it's not, it can't just be opportunity. You can't just say, well, now if he plays 77 or 85% of the snaps.

He's going to be great for fantasy. No, he's got to take a step forward as well because he hasn't been good enough. That's a little of the, like Quentin Johnston had opportunity and snaps. Exactly. Like to the 70 and 80 to 90 percent and did nothing for fantasy. So yeah, that is. And Jameson Williams. Risky business is, let's say he accomplishes the goal here. I want to make sure I get the quote right because right before the NFL Combine. Coach Campbell talking about Jameson Williams. He's going to push to be a full-time starter. So that's where we were before the draft. If you're Jared Gov, who do you want to throw to? You want to throw to Amman Rae St. Brown or Jameson Williams? That was going to be the point of this guy who's going to push to be a starter. Should he accomplish that lofty goal of a first round wide receiver just being a starter? You have Jemir Gibbs. I'd rather throw to him. Rather throw to him. And Sam Laporta. Yeah, and that's the truth.

Luckily, Jameson Williams can score from 80 yards out. But no, that is, that's what makes him so wild. Talking through this, I think I'm out. Like, I thought I was more pro. I thought I was pro. You're the highest ranker right now. Well, that's what I'm saying. I thought, I really thought it could happen. But those realities, though, about being the starter, they were true for, you know, Josh Reynolds. And he had games. You know what I mean? Like they were true. It's not that. Those other, like there's a lot to go around in Detroit. That's all I'm saying. I am, I've been out on James and Williams for the last two. So nice being in though. The last two years. So that's felt nice, warm and comfy. But where he's, wide receiver 49 on sleeper, 48 on underdog. What round is that? Do you know? 10th round. Man, double good. Double. I will say this. I'm Beckett. Because here's the thing.

When you're in the double-digit rounds, you're looking for upside. You're looking for someone who can become elite. And there's not a lot of people that should be a full-time starter with crazy speed on a great offense in the 10th round. Mike, you've got to finish this up. Another wild card. Speaking of players going late in the draft and having no idea what to do with them, Gus Edwards of the Los Angeles Chargers, the Gus bus. I'm looking. There it is. Thank you. I was speaking in a cadence. No, I know you were. I don't know where it is. The drop. I got no idea. To happen. Are you hitting it again? Are you still looking? I'm still looking. Oh. Yeah. So here's the. What just happened? I just saw the booty scoopie cam. Okay. You wanted to want to. I wanted to flash a back for a second. So on the positive side for Gus Edwards are right now.

He's the starting running back for the Los Angeles Chargers. It's a good starting point. Yeah, he has a starting job. He is playing for an offensive coordinator who he has played many years for in the past was productive in those years. He was not the starter. He was the backup. We're talking about Greg Roman, aka Giro, who has... Such a bad nickname. It's not ours. It just... No, I know. Remember everyone that we didn't do that. J. Har did it. No, that's hard dog. We did that one. I know. That's a good one. Yeah, that's a great one. Hard dog's good. So the past for Gero and his offenses, they run the ball so, so much, and the past attempts are frequently dead last or second to last in the league. Like volume should be there and then talk about success. The rushing touchdown output for.

Greg Roman's running back rooms. We're talking a 10-year sample size and average of nearly 14 rushing touchdowns per year. That's a lot of opportunity for scoring for Gus Edwards. Now, the bad side, you may have heard us talking about Gus Edwards on this podcast for a long time because he's 29 years old. Entering year seven, his deal is, it's a two-year basically $3 million guaranteed. So this is a salary of nothing. Bro. I remember. You want to jump in? Just for a second, because I remember you mentioning his age reminded me that I remember trading James Robinson in our dynasty league. Oh, yeah. For Gus Edwards. So excited for the opportunity. And then Gus tore his ACL in camp. Yeah, that was. But that was three years ago now. He's been in the league a long time.