Fantasy Football 2018 - The TRUTH About Fantasy RBs in 2017, Part 1

position. That's something that is over, what, 22 points and above? 22 points. That's basically going to give you what amounts to around a top five running back performance on a weekly basis. Good games. More than 10 points, which puts you in that top 24 range on average. And then bus games. If you're fewer than seven points, you're outside the top 50 on average. That's considered a bust. And we look at those three factors, and we determine a consistency rank for you on the year as a running back. And so,

Look, we'll start with one that worked out in both directions. Todd Giller was the number one fantasy running back in half point, and he was the number one most consistent. He had 15, he played 15 games this year, 279 carries, 1,300-plus yards, 13 touchdowns on the ground, 13 touchdowns on the ground, another 64 receptions for 788 yards and six touchdowns. This was David Johnson from last year in a lot of ways. I mean, Johnson caught a few more passes, like you said, but...

A combined 19 touchdowns. That's ridiculous. And he was considered good in 93% of games. And that encapsulates the great games too. So good in 93%, busted in 1, and then great in 53 of the 93%. That is an incredible season for Todd Gurley. Not that you need to be reminded. Right. Because you're probably, you probably already have a picture up on the wall if he took you to the title. Yeah, he took you the title game or he took you out.

of the title game. So your picture could be a dartboard. Like if you, for, for me, for example, and you look at his splits because we're going to bring those up. There's really nothing to mention a half a point difference between top and bottom 16 defenses, rushing defenses, that is his home road splits, 2.6 points better at home. No big deal here. Yeah. It was, it was a great year.

It didn't matter what the schedule was. I know early in the season, I, myself and you might hear a little bit, had the worries about what happens when he faces that tough run. Got a case of the worries. And Sean McBade said, don't worry. Yeah. I'm going to pass him the ball. He'll be just fine. And in those games against those tougher defenses, you saw him step up in the passing game. Todd Gurley's as safe as it comes next year. He'll be in that conversation for that, you know, one-on-one pick. And he should be. Yep.

And it's funny because you just brought up the coaching changes episode. There's no greater case of, you know, improvement by coach than Todd Gurley. And you're in a situation there. You know, sometimes we get in here and we go, Andy Reid, you know, why don't you just do this with Cream Hunt? Or you say that about another team. Why don't you just do this with JHA or this player? Sometimes they do it. Yeah, sometimes they do it. I mean, this was just John McVeigh. He was in the corner going, yeah, that sounds good.

I bet if I give it to my best player more often, we'll score more points. Success. Great success. Great coach. I think I can be a coach. Whereas Steve Sarkozyan says, you know what, Tehran Ward? We're going to check him. I owe him one. I owe him one. Because that's the solution for a partially injured Devonza Freeman was putting in Tehran Ward. All right. Lev Bell, number two.

on the year and the number two most consistent running back. 321 carries. If you compare that to Gurley's 279, that's a lot more, 42 more. $1,291 yards on the ground, nine touchdowns, 85 receptions. Mike, you were chomping at the bit. There's not much to say about Levine on Bell. 40% of the time was a great game. 93% good. He only busted 7% of the time. His numbers are almost identical to Gurley.

save for a handful of touchdowns. My bigger question was going to be, how much stock are you guys putting into Levi-on-Bell coming out and saying that he would rather retire than play under what he deems as an unfair contract if the Steelers were to say franchise him again or they offer him just an amount of money he does not see fit for what he gives to that offense? I gave that some thought this weekend. Jason, share your thoughts and I'll share mine.

Yeah, I don't think it will happen. I think they'll franchise him. I think he'll play on the franchise tag. But my guess is that it will scare the crud out of everyone because he will hold out for a while. He's not going to just sign it and come into camp. You know, he's going to be one of those, you know, weighed it out.

rest, do his own thing, and then at the last minute, sign it and come in. And that's going to be really scary because of the draft capital that it's going to cost to get Levy on Bell. News came out that Big Ben is planning on being back in 2018, which is great. Great for Antonio Brown, great for Lev Bell, and that whole offense. But I do think he plays on the franchise tag. You're talking about close to 15 million. It would be 14 and a half million for next season. But I mean, can the Steelers even?

Can you put that cap? Well, they tried to. They tried to put a two-year, $30 million deal together for him. Well, they are. I side complete with Levion Bell on this one. You give a guy the ball over 400 times or the number he was throwing out. You have to pay him accordingly. I know he's a running back. And technically you think, well, we have to give him running back money. He does far more than a running back. I don't disagree with any of that, but I do think that the Steelers are playing the situation to their advantage.

running back shelf life, motivation to play at the top of your game. Look, I don't know Leveon Bell. I don't know the man, right? But I do know that there is a tendency, human nature, to when you get that deal, sometimes the edge is gone. And if you have the combination of the amount of money you have to spend on a player of his caliber, his age, the fact that it doesn't last forever in the NFL, I'm not sure that the Steelers aren't doing the smartest thing.

If I were in playing him on a franchise. I would franchise him again without a doubt. I mean, you, what do they? That's why I thought it was smart when he came out and said, I might retire if they franchise me, just negotiating power. Yeah, $15 million says he won't. Because if Big Ben, next year has to be it, right, for Big Ben? I don't know. I think it would. If he goes out, if they go out and they, they lose in the AFC title game next year, I'm not sure he retires. Okay. I think it was, that was a lot of smoke.

Maybe. Maybe he's gone. We'll find out. He's certainly not going to play forever. I'm just saying, okay, well, if we only have Big Ben for one more year, okay, give Levion Bell his one-year franchise deal and then be done. Yeah. All right. Alvin Camara finished the year is the third best fantasy running back. Props to Jason early in the year. A big favorite of his was Alvin Kamara. Consistency rank of number six. Okay, good games, 81% of the time, 19% bust. He was great and 31% of games. He was...

Great. Yes. In 31% of games. The thing about Alvin Kamara, I don't read too much into this consistency number. No. Because he didn't start. Two of his, because he didn't start the year as, you know, established. Two of his three busts were week one and week two. Why don't you throw those out of there, Jay? Yeah, no one, no one was really playing him in those weeks. You didn't draft Alvin Kamara and throw him into your lineup week one. You were waiting to see what you had.

You didn't see anything worthy of starting in week two. So it was a couple weeks until he got going. But once he did, you know, once Adrian Peterson left and it was a two-man show, you wrote him the rest of the way. And he was about as consistent as a guy. Yeah. And the concussion game, I think, was really the only blip on the radar after that. Which is to say Alvin Camero was exceptionally consistent. This team is on, you know, they have a year or two left with Breeze at prime.

And so it begs the question, like, do you buy into Alvin Kamara? Like we've talked a lot about, okay, these numbers, especially the average yards per touch, they can't be sustained. But what I saw yesterday, especially against Minnesota, was when push came to shell, the, Al-Kamaro was on the field. Yeah, he's better than market. He was more, he's more flexible, more talented, touch his toes. Yeah, he can touch his toes with his wrist. And maybe he's worthy.

of the same discussion as a girly, bell, DJ. You know, right now, Alvin Camara and Karim Hunt, who do you draft first in a half point? Between, give me the names again? No, just Hunt and Camara. Oh. That's going to depend on what Kansas City does at running back in the draft to me. Yeah, the interesting thing is, and it's, I mean, you can't really read into it. But let's say you drafted today, Jay. If I drafted today, I would take Cream Hunt.

What I was going to talk about was Alvin Camara in the playoffs all of a sudden was getting goal line carries. And that's where the biggest difference for him and Mark Ingram was. Mark Ingram is dominant on the goal line. He has been for years. But if they're all of a sudden going to say, well, let's roll out with Camara at the goal line, that changes things drastically. I mean, yes, he was the number three guy here. But if you're worried about regression,

but he turns into the goal line back. That changes things in a big, big way. I doubt in the regular season, they would turn him into the bruising, short-yardage goal-line back. I mean, that's something where he is a smaller guy, so to take that kind of abuse throughout the season, it didn't surprise me that when push came to show up playoff games, things are on the line. You're not worried about the usage that they would get him in a little bit more.

on and near the goal line. But I would be surprised if that happened regular season. I want to talk about Kareem Hunt, who is the number four overall running back, another rookie. Consistency rank of number 10. And here's how I break down Kareem Hunt's season. It's a marathon, right? And he gets out to a blazing start, finishes as the number one running back, the number four, the number five in the first three weeks. You're dancing with your fourth round draft at Kareem Hunt. Still, great game, 17th, 13th, 16th.

10th. Then you get into this, this is the part of the marathon where, we'll call it the Andy Reid jumped on his back and slowed him down part. 25th, 27th, the by-week, 28th, then 60th, then 38th. So five games, six weeks, you were scratching your head and you were kind of, you were just,

You're putting him out there. Saying crap, I should have taken those trade offers. Yes, you were. And then you've got the second wind when he shook off Andy Reid and 11, 2, 7, and then week 17, we'll throw that out. What do you make of this season for Cream Hunt? How does he feel compared to the truth? I mean, Jason, is this the time you want to bring up your little case study? Yeah, so this is, he is a perfect candidate here to do a truth episode because.

he brings, he being, Kareem Hunt brings a lot of emotion. If you had Kareem Hunt, you got off to this kind of start that you thought, I'm going to dominate everybody, and I'm going to win because I got this fourth round pick that is the best back in the world. Or you traded for him later, maybe you held on, and then in those playoff weeks, he had a great playoff stretch. So the view of Kareem Hunt to a lot of people is,

super high because there were the emotional beginnings and ends that kind of sandwiched together his six bad weeks in a row where you couldn't really use him five games. If you compare that to Melvin Gordon.

Melvin Gordon was a disappointment to a lot of people because it cost them more draft capital to acquire if we're just talking about in the draft. And, you know, in general, he didn't score as many points as Cream Hunt. But when you actually look at how the year broke down, I posted two polls on Twitter. One poll said, if you don't take draft capital in and it's just a redraft, who would you have preferred to have on your team this last year, Kareem Hunt or Melvin Gordon?

And it was 60-40, Kareem Hunt. People wanted Kareem Hunt. Then I posted the consistency metrics here, basically how many times a player had over 20, had their great game, had their good games, busted. And I put the numbers of Melvin Gordon as player B and Kareem Hunt as player A. So just take the names out and what they did. And it was 68 to 32 percent people chose. They'd rather have the game log.

of Melvin Gordon when the player name was taken out because Melvin Gordon, Melvin Gordon did not even have two games under 10 points back to back the entire year. So you want to talk about a consistent player. He, you know, some of those upside games, he didn't have the 42 point game monstrosity week one that Cream Hunt did. But Melvin Gordon helped his owners a whole heck of a lot. And it's important that while we take a look at the truth, you.

Remember that because it didn't necessarily feel that way because of what you paid for in the draft. And you have to separate draft cost with production at this time of year. Yeah, and it was super interesting. If you look at the consistency ranking, Elvin Gordon's the fifth player on this list. He finishes the consistency rank of seven to Kareem Hunt's 10. He was good 81% of the time. Kareem Hunt was good 63% of the time. Similar great games, 19% for Gordon, 25% for Hunt. So an extra game.