Championship Week Prep + Hungry For More, Underdog Tips - Fantasy Football Podcast for 12/27

Just sleep through the games. All right, New York, six and nine, taking on the Cleveland Browns, 10 and five. The Draft King Sportsbook line, Cleveland, minus seven and a half at home. The overrunner is 35. That gives the Jets 13 points. So let's start with the easy decisions. The Cleveland defense. Oh, yeah, they're in. We know that Trevor Simeon is going to be back. Yeah, Zach Wilson has been ruled out. This is, uh, So the Cleveland defense. Man, this game is going to be wild. The Cleveland defense is a lock. The Browns can't run the ball. They have really struggled running. And they're throwing it like crazy with Flacco, obviously, mostly to Amari Cooper. 40 plus every time. But you cannot throw on the Jets. You just can't do it. They give up 168 a week passing yard. A statue-esque pocket passer.

and Joe Flacco trying to just air it out on the Jets, it ain't going to work. It's just not going to work. I can't imagine him picking apart this Jets secondary. I can imagine this Jets secondary picking him off and maybe. Short field situation for Brees. Yeah. I mean, genuinely, I think Brees is okay because of that. I mean, you're going to start Brees no matter what. You just, you have to have the upside play. It's not a great, I mean, these are two good defenses. I would start the Jets defense as well. I think that they're okay. Now, the Browns being favored by seven and a half, being implied for over 20 points, maybe I'm more scared than I should be of the Jets defense. There were people on Twitter and maybe they're just angry Jets fans. They said, please stop hyping up the Jets defense. They're like, it's awful.

They just, you know, they give up a 28 points in the second half to Washington. And while I understand the emotion behind that, the math says they're the very best against quarterbacks and wide receivers, and not by a little bit, by a lot. And so it is a really tough situation. And when they give up those points, I mean, they give it all up really quickly, like when they stopped playing football. They literally, they literally took their players out of the game. And then because there was like 27 to 7 towards the end of the game, and they're benching their guys. And then they were, whoops, we did that too early. Here's one other guaranteed start is David Najoku. David Najoku, I just looked this up. This is not a small sample, guys. This is from week 7 through 16. So 10 full games. He's on pace for 160 targets, 95 receptions, 1,000 yards.

and 10 and a half touchdowns in that span. He has not had, he's had one week outside the top 12 with the position. I can see a ton of tight-in screens, short area Najoku targets. Throw right, right in front of you in the middle of the field and let Najoku take a big hit. Yeah, I mean, he's on 175 target pace over the last six weeks. So he's going to be targeted and he is comfortable and fine. And what about the, you got, uh, Revenge game stack. With Joe Flacco? Joe Flacco and Elijah Moore. He can't catch the football? I understand, but he's going to be extra angry. Yeah, I mean, he will run around. I couldn't stand watching last week and watching Elijah Moore because the few targets that he received were disgusting because of him. Yeah. And so, yeah, he is, you know, the Joe Flacco against the Jets narrative, 21 points. I mean, it's.

They can't run the football. Do you think they get to 21 points? That's the question. The Browns? Yeah. I think they do. I think this game could hit the over, but not based on the offenses. Right. I think that both of these defenses score a touchdown in this game. And then you will have some. Amari Cooper is the biggest question because people who have Mari Cooper, how do you possibly sit him off of the biggest performance of the entire year? where he balled out and was amazing. How could you sit him? Right now I've got him as my wide receiver 24. So if you're in the championship game and you've got a Mari Cooper, you probably have, I mean, you're in the championship game. You've got a good roster. You might have other, you might have three other top 24 wide receivers this week where there's the potential to look at saying, man, I could see how this game goes very poorly and sit them down. But I think the majority of people, you just.

You're not going to be able to sit Amari Cooper. You're going to hope that he's hyper-targeted. Mike, you brought up he could get a big play. You know, he's getting targeted down the field. It just takes one 60-yard catch to make you happy enough in this game. And obviously around the end zone, he's been looked at a lot. Do you go, what about Garrett Wilson on the other side versus Amari Cooper? Oh, there's no way I would not play Cooper. Without a doubt, Cooper over Garrett Wilson. Garrett Wilson, to me, is someone that. I would prefer to bench this week. He's averaging 10 targets a game. But on the road against Cleveland without Zach Wilson, Garrett Wilson is, I mean. His last two road games, he finished with negative points and with four points against Miami. And it's tough because it's just not a lot of points available to Trevor Simeon. I was wrong. I mean, last week he was good.

But I play a Marty Cooper. I play the favorite. I play the guy that's leading the league in reception yards over the last six weeks. So like as of right now, you know, just so for some personal anecdotes, I am currently leaning on. I will be playing Zay Flowers over Garrett Wilson. I haven't locked that decision in. I mean, the clock is obviously ticking here with a Thursday night matchup. But so just that's my headspace of where I am with, with Garrett Wilson. Yeah, the, I'm playing Cooper. I'm getting it. I'm putting him in. It's a good discussion. I know Brooks is chiming in saying, look, it's how you play fantasy. I could never live with benching Cooper. That's, I get it. I think the discussion's important, though. Because if you just stay stuck in the mud on these matchups, like, you know, there have been Sequin weeks where it was probably worth benching him. But I, you know, I didn't have the courage to do it. Right. Because you stick with that player. I think you probably are staying in the flames here, but.

Then that asks to, you know, if Najoku's good, if Cooper's good, everybody that I've talked to is benching Joe Flacco this. That's where I was going to go to the conversation of do you play. The number one quarterback from last week. Do you play Joe Flacco or do you go with, you know, we brought up some what I think are, the process anyway, says some good streamers of like Derek Carr gets to play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I would play Derek Carr. Baker Mayfield gets to play the Saints. I would play Baker. Yeah, probably again without Lattimore. So if you have a, if you have Mike Evans.

Congratulations, you probably don't have to deal with that. I play Kyler. I play Russell Wilson. I, you know, if if there's a good enough option, I would play those over Flacko this week. Gino Smith against Pittsburgh. I play Gino. Gardner Minshew against Las Vegas. I've got them back to back in my rankings. I'm okay going Flacko. I think I would go Flacco there. They have been on fire. That is, that is fair. And the Jets? You know, their defense has had to fight tooth and nail all year long, and they're not playing for anything anymore. So it would be interesting if the game got away from them, what happens to their defense. It's a tough one. It's going to be, I mean, it's a game with a 35 point over and under to start your championship week with players that you've been playing every week. Like, here's what I, here's what I'll say. I don't think you get through this game where Brees Hall, Garrett Wilson, Amari Cooper, David Nujoku, all those guys have good weeks. I don't think that happens.

Or all of them having bad weeks. I don't think that happens either. You're going to have a handful of guys you're happy with and mostly sad. The tight-in won in fantasy since week seven, David Njoku. Dude. Tight-in number one. It's about freaking time. Right? Cleveland. I don't know what you've been doing. I mean, the Ingram Nijoku stories of their career are comical. Yeah. This was five years ago you were drafted, and these guys were first round picks. They were supposed to be superstars. This is year seven. The three of those guys, Najoku, Nejoku, Evan Ingram, and O.J. Howard. They were, you know. Number one since week seven, number five on the year, already had 115 targets in this offense and career high in touch. Did you say this is year seven? Wait, what? Yeah. I said five years. Wow, year seven. Yeah.

Just wait for the year seven breakout, everyone. It's dynasty players out there pull your hair out because not only was Najoku drafted, Ingram drafted in Dynasty leagues to be great. And then you went through the mire and you, you know, your soul died and then you traded them away. But then now you're watching across the league and somebody else has them and they're delivering for them. Yeah. It's ridiculous. It took them this long. But, hey, we're here now. It's great. It's great. I'm very, very happy that I snuck him into trades at the deadline. And Mike, you know, we talked about the schedule. It just lined up for Najoku as well. He's 27 still. Yeah, he was too young. He came into the league as a baby monster. I mean, he was the biggest manned young. I mean, he was just too young. He was too young for the NFL. Kyle Pitts just 23. Are we waiting for his year seven? Yeah. We're in year.

Three? Yeah, we got a waste to go. For sure. Four more years. Oh, my goodness. All right, anything else from this game you want to discuss? I think a lot of people have been asking on the website. Number four, in terms of start-sick questions in the week 17 rankings, has been whether you play the Jets defense on the road Thursday night against the Browns who have been cruising, or you pivot to somebody else like Chicago against Atlanta, the Rams against the Giants. the Las Vegas Raiders who's been on fire against Indianapolis. Like I, me personally, I play those three defenses. I play them all over the Jets. Really? I would. Hmm. That's, that's, that's, that's tough. I mean, you got seven point, seven and a half point favorites here. Flacco's thrown five interceptions in the last two weeks. I know he's been great for fantasy and he's been winning ball games, but like how you score in.

Fantasy, you know, the interception is the highest. Yeah, the pass rush and the interception. It's the highest odds to a touchdown, right? And so is the pick. And I think Flacko throws at least two picks in this game. So I still lean the jets. Okay. Over all those? Over the Rams against the Giants? Yeah, I don't. Tyrod. Just play the better defense? I think so. I mean, that's where I lean. These are all good options. But I'm going to. You know, especially since it's that close, let me know how my defense does on Thursday, get a head start on the week if I need to make pivot options with more knowledge getting ahead on championship week. Yeah, it's a good point. It'll be an interesting game. Let's do some championship week mailbag. Mailbag. All right. Here we go. If you have a question for the show, you can go to the website, the fantasy footballers.com. Click the submit a question button.

or dial the voicemail hotline 302464 TFFB. Jumping into a voicemail question. Here we go, and it is a funny one. Hey, ballers. Do I dare start David and Joku over Stefan Diggs this week somehow made the championship? Thanks, let me know. Oh, my gosh. Yes. Do you dare? Yes, you do. I would. I would do that. So Stefan Diggs gets the Patriots. I would do it too. What an insane. Yeah. Question. David Najoku, six-year bust tight end. Yeah. Versus superstar. We need to shut this year down, man. This year is drunk. Can I make a secondary decision for you? How about David Najoku or Austin Echler this week? I would go Echler there. I think Echler's actually a good play. He.

I know it's crazy. He worked his way into double-digit points. He had double-digit points last week, 19 opportunities, and he plays against Denver, and Denver's defense has been better, you know, but against the run, that's where they get me. So digs are in a joku, Mike? I. Oh my God. His last five games, his last four games against the Patriots, seven for 85 in a touchdown, seven for 92 in a touchdown, seven for 104 in a touchdown, six for 58 in a touchdown. But that was, I know you're not reading Diggs. I mean, that's. Yeah. So, because Diggs's last couple games is five for 29 and no touchdown. One, that was Diggs against New England. The last four matches against New England. Oh. He's dominated them, but this is not the same Stefan Diggs right now.

No, it's not. And it has coincided with the change of offensive coordinator too. And the change in, yeah, the running philosophy. Amari Cooper or Stefan Diggs? Cooper. Jason, Jason, just plunging his head into his microphone. You got to do your fantasy algebra here. If you're going to start Noghoku over Stefan Diggs, you would certainly start Amari Cooper. Yeah. There's no way I'm going to live in the betting on Diggs. revival after the amount of weeks that has happened. I'm not going to do that. That's a good point. It's a good point, Mike. Are you playing Cooper over Diggs? Yes. Yeah, I got to move Diggs, yeah. I was just thinking of the same thing. Oh, my gosh. All right. Yeah, and I think you do. I think you flex the tight end, which is redonculus. Do you guys want to quit the show? A little bit. Yeah, just for, just for this season.

Where is Diggs in the rankings right now? I have... I'm moving them down. I have him around 16 to 20. Yeah, I just bumped into 20. Yeah, he's at... Yeah, I'm looking at guys that, you know, like... This question is Zayflowers, Nico Collins. Loyalty pays no dividends. Points are what win championships. There's a handful of these guys that... I would rather play over Stefan Diggs at this point. I mean, he's not someone that, you know, is incapable. He still looked all right to me on the field. It's just been missing on some stuff. Well, there's a couple of things. We talked about this on the Dynasty show, but they're not targeting them deep as much. They're not connecting deep as much. And the way that he is being used since the coordinator change and the way that the team is operating since the coordinator change.

puts him in a less valuable situation. He had a deep target that should have been about a 75-yard touchdown last week that Josh Allen under threw it. It was a pick. They did take the shot. And what's crazy is they've won games. Four of the last five games they've won. 32 points, 20 points, 31 points, 24 points. All four of those games, Stefan Diggs, 57, 58, 46, 66 in fantasy finish. So it is... And yet... a 22% target share 31, 38, 38. The last two weeks, he has seen 38% of the targets. You don't bench him at no, you don't bench him over everybody. Right. You just. You can still find value there. It's just a matter of whether or not the Buffalo Bills are going to need to throw the ball a lot. You know, 38% of a team that has decided against the Cowboys to just run the ball every single play and succeed and win the game that way, you know,

you could have 60% of a bad pie and not be happy. I'm very happy that they're at home this week against no one. But like, I mean, you start to make decisions about Stefan Diggs or Rashi Rice, Stefan Diggs or Mike Evans. I would go Rice. Mike Evans. I would go Mike Evans. Stefan Diggs or Brandon Ayuk. I don't. That's a fair question. I don't go I, I think of Washington game. Yeah, I mean, Devante Adams or Stefan Diggs? Devante Adams plays Indy. I mean, that's a good matchup. Yeah, his quarterback is. Isn't it a good matchup for wide receivers? It's average. I think it's a much better matchup for running backs. I'm going to play diggs over Adams. I mean, outside wide outs dominate Indianapolis. That's what Kyle is reminding us. Yeah, I will remind you. The Raiders had no passing yards in three quarters. I understand that. I'll take 38% of Josh Allen's targets. But we can't be so biased to one week that.

They scored 63 points where Trey Tucker, Jacoby Myers, Devante Adams, and Michael Mayer all dominated a week prior. So I'm not saying one way or the other. I'm just laying it out. All right. Another voicemail. Hey, footballers. Steve from Phoenix here. Got a tough one. I'm in the finals in my league, and I can't decide between Joe Nixon or Ty Chandler. Really a hard one. Hope you guys are having a good day. Bye. I don't feel great about Ty Chandler this week. I'm just going to throw that out there. Really? No, I don't. Obviously, Madison's going to get worked in more than he was last week coming off of the injury. Ty Chandler really inefficient. I know it's the Packers matchup. There's opportunity there. I'm not saying Chandler can't deliver. I am curious where you both are with Ty Chandler. Mike, you have a starts-it decision with him. Yeah, so the Packers right now over the last five weeks have been the sixth best matchup over expectation.

Oh, the Chiefs, let me find them real quick. The Chiefs over the last five weeks have been right behind the Packers. So not a tough matchup in terms of giving up points above your expected points. Yeah, this is. Eight attempts last week. This is a volume play to me. Which is mixing. Which is mixing. Yeah. The matchups are similar enough. One isn't great and one is terrible. Where I don't know. I think Ty Chandler is a decent play this week. I'm not anti-Channler. Without Hawkinson, without Addison, they're going to need to run the ball more. And so I think Chandler's okay. But he could end up with seven or eight carries in the game. And Madison worked in more. I mean, we just don't know how the game plan will work. We don't even know what quarterback it's going to be. Whereas at least with Mixen, we've seen him have...

a lot of success with Jake Browning, get a ton of work. So I'm going to, I'm going to lean on the volume. All right. This is a good question from Braxton. Well, hold on here. Breaking news. What are you got for us? This is from Rapsheet. So Ian Rappaport, the Broncos are strongly considering having quarterback Russell Wilson sit for the final two games, preserving financial flexibility for the off season. Wilson has 37 mil in 2025 salary that vests in March of 2024 if he suffered a serious injury. It would complicate matters. Yeah, they're eliminated now. So I don't think that those two guys get along. I don't think that's the future. It's this. It's the right move. Mike is retiring from 2023. Wow. Don't worry. The calendar turns over, Mike is 24 soon. Is that Jared Stittam?

You betcha. Yeah, baby. Ironically, Jared Stidham was who took over for car when they benched car in the exact same situation last year. Jared Stiddle. You want to know. Who? You want to know who? Yeah, I believe so. Look, look that up. You want to know who's alerting these general managers about the contract toll? Is it still? Jared Stittam's agent is calling these general managers. He's like, I reviewed the contracts. Look, now that you're out of it, you need to be aware of what's going to happen. If Russ goes out there, gets injured. That is too funny. Stittlum is his mind and his piece and cues. Yeah. The contract. What's great is.

One of my championship leagues that I'm in, it's a best ball. Superflex. I got Stittam on the roster, baby. Sit them down. Sit rest down. Sit them. Yeah. Nice. Also, I mean, we'll see if Cortland Sutton plays. That's brutal. Well, it's brutal, but it's also, thank goodness there's. Who plays them this week? There's real, no fantasy options. What's the Dem? Is it the Chargers? Yeah, Chargers at Denver. What's, I mean, if you have no Cortland Sutton, you have no Russell Wilson. Bet the under. Yeah, yeah. I guess you would never play the charge of defense. East and stick. Well done, Jared. You figured out, sit him for sit them. That's the campaign every year. He needs to find, that's what he's doing. He's finding quarterbacks that he knows at the end of the year, that's the team he goes to that year.

Genius. All right, this is our final question here. It's a good one from Braxton because a lot of you are in this situation like Mike. I'm playing against a juggernaut in the championship. That would be me. Mike, you're playing me. I'm the juggernaut. What are the tips you have when you're overmatched? Do you play a player like Kyler over Stafford? Stafford's been a low ceiling option this year. Do you play upside type of options like a Darius Slayton? over a Wondale or a, that's a bad example, but like a, you know, somebody who would, do you sit Cooper because you don't think a ceiling game exists and play someone like Devante Adams where maybe a ceiling game does exist? I think you're definitely looking for more ceiling, more explosiveness, high upside. It's the type of matchup where you can get yourself to play a Gabe Davis, someone that can have a 70-yard touchdown, even though George Pickens. You could really hurt you, you know, who?

has the explosiveness and the matchup. I would also try, if you can, um, to stack, you know, if you're, you know, if you've got, um, the decision between Stafford and, and Kyler and you think, oh, Stafford hasn't really had upside. Kyler has the upside. Well, if, if you've got puka or, or, or you've got Trey McBride, play the one that. matches your quarterback because if that player gets the touchdowns it's it's a powerful tool that's good advice the stack is powerful you need touchdowns and is what you need focus on touchdowns with your dst look at who's going to throw picks and try to get i mean those are you want to beat a juggernaut you end up with 15 points from your defense you know that that's the put work into i played uh

I was in several playoffs, and in two of them I faced the Raiders defense on their 24-point week, and I was eliminated in both of those, and I was the favorite in both. So it's a good point. If you get an overwhelming defensive performance, that is massive. So that'll do it for today's episode of the podcast tomorrow. We'll dig into the matchup starts of the week and get that going for championship Sunday, pretty much. I mean, it's going to be a big week. A reminder, you can head over to join thefoot.com if you'd like to support this podcast. If we have been bringing you entertainment, advice, anything you appreciate, check out the community of 30,000 strong, more than that, actually. You get access to all of the Discord channels, premium tools and resources, extra episodes during the off season when we drop down to two regular shows a week. And you get to hang out with the best people on earth. So join thefoot.com. Quick update, Jeremy found. So Denver.

If they win, they actually will maintain a 12% chance to get into the playoffs. So essentially eliminated, but not totally. Okay. Is it a 12% chance to lose $37 million? Is that worth it? That's the question that Sean Payton and company will have to decide. Maybe he's made up his mind on Russell Wilson already. We'll be back tomorrow to talk more about that and all the matchups. Take care of Foclan. Goodbye. for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join thefoot.com and follow us on Twitter at theFF ballers.