Busts + Buy or Sell: Hot Takes Edition

and he's going to be a very good player on a very bad team, in my opinion. But if he doesn't get the third down work that gives him the pronounced target share that we want, and he doesn't get goal line because they believe in C.J. Anderson on the goal line, you've got a player that is going to underwhelm compared to ADP. Scouting a port, never avoiding, you know, the hits. Remember Darren McFadden's durability concerns? He runs a lot like Darren McFadden. Very upright running style. So if...

It's all a risk aversion when you talk about high draft picks. And for me, the risk is too high. The lens that this team is looking at them through, the other players that they picked up on the roster, the fact that I don't believe they're going to have as many goal line chances as other teams in football, I'm just concerned. Would you believe that I actually like your bust pick from a conversation piece?

No, I wouldn't believe that. Well, then you're wrong. I think it's, I think it is somewhat important because we talk about Karen. I love Kerry on. When I said earlier that you have two opposite picks, you have a player that I don't believe is talented in Damian Williams, who has the best opportunity in the league versus a player in Kerry on Johnson, who I think is so unbelievably talented in a bad situation. So I usually take opportunity over talent.

This year, I'm going with My Guy Carion. Honestly, part of the reason I'm going with Carion is Juju Smith-Schuster. He was one of those guys that I just thought the talent was unbelievable. Yes. And I didn't take him as my my guy because the opportunity seemed a little bit nebulous and you weren't sure. I am buying into the talent and I think the talent will win. But your conversation here.

is important because if he doesn't get the passing work and he doesn't get the goal line, there are risks to carry on, even the carry-on Johnson-truther knows it. Now, here's the question I have. What if he gets both of those things? Oh, if he gets both of those. Oh, whoa! I'm going to White Castle. If he gets none, I'm also. But the question is Damian Williams and Carry-on Johnson, they are going back to back right now. So you're on the clock.

You have to draft one of those two guys. Which one are you taking? Carry on Johnson. Yes, good. Yes. Thank you for putting it to me that way. I have to take one of my two bucks. Which one do I take? It's Carry on Johnson. All right. So here, my bust to go next. Yeah, yeah, great. I'm giving it back. Look, Karen Johnson, he's a my guy. Christian Kirk. He's a your guy. Yep.

I believe Christian Kirk is a bust for where he's being drafted right now. He has been skyrocketing until this last weekend. He was up in the sixth round. You're welcome. And on his way up. Sorry. Yeah. But I don't see the, look, I love the talent of Christian Kirk. I love the future of the Cardinals in this offense. But we have to be realistic as to the difference between Kyler Murray being successful for fantasy because he is a...

heavy rushing quarterback versus a rookie, even a great rookie quarterback coming in and what it does for the other offensive pieces around him. Because the truth is, Kyler Murray is probably not going to put up enough stats in the passing game to support one breakout wide receiver. So here's the examples. Here's the data that I look at. Okay, rookie quarterbacks, they don't throw a lot of yards. There's only three.

You can't even throw a yard, technically. You can't pick it up and throw it. Four, a lot of yards. It's just an idea, Jason. You can't throw ideas. You can't throw measurements. I guess you could throw a yardstick. I am clearly still correct then. Rookies do not throw yards. They can't throw yards. Thank you. Thank you. There's only, you know, three quarterbacks in history that have thrown for 4,000 yards.

The Great Peyton comes out. You're talking about rookies. The Great Peyton Manning comes out, throws for 3,700 yards. Look at Vegas. What do they believe Kyler Murray is going to do? Now, I'm taking the over. I'm slamming the over. Okay, but the Caesar sports book that's not trying to lose money had him listed at 2,940 passing yards. Can I put my house on that? When it came out. Fandual was at 3,100 passing yards. You can.

But you might not have a house. So the reality here is that I don't think. You don't believe the yardage will sustain a breakout. You might believe in the player, but you don't believe the opportunity and the passing yardage can mathematically add up. That plus the passing touchdowns. I mean, Baker tied the all-time record for 27, right? 27 last year. So if he throws for 3,500 yards, which would be great.

and 25 touchdowns, which would be great for a rookie. Those numbers are not good enough to have Larry Fitzgerald, a four wide receiver spread thing, and have Christopher Kirk break out. I don't think we have to argue about this. I don't, because I think it just comes down to what you believe Kyle Murray is going to do on the field with his arm. I don't look too heavily at the history of rookie quarterbacks when you talk about what this offense is going to do. And, you know, Cam Newton's rookie season, he threw for over 4,000 yards. He's one of the three.

You don't get a count Baker, but he was on pace for 4,200 yards in his rookie season. Kylo was a more prolific passer and a more efficient passer at Oklahoma than Baker Mayfield was. So if you believe, here's what I, I'll put this out there. He's my guy. Christian Kirk's my guy. If you don't believe Kyle Murray can throw for 4,000 yards this year, let Christian Kirk pass you by. Let him go. If you don't believe that that's in the realm of possibilities, I do. I believe that this team, the defense is atrocious.

I don't, especially the first six weeks of the season. We haven't seen the offense. Kyler Murray is a hyper-accurate, prolific passer. I believe he's a better passer coming into the NFL than Cam Newton was, but that team had to throw the football. Steve Smith and company, I remember that debut. Oh, Steve. I was there. That was awesome. And again, Kyler can run. Kyler's a passer first. It's not Lamar Jackson where you have 18 design runs a game like Lamar Jackson does.

you're going to have high pass attempt totals in Arizona because they're going to be coming from behind. He's not just, he will run the football, but he wants to pass the football first. So if you don't believe, if you think he's a 3,000 yard passer, you better stay as far from Christian Kirkies you can. I have him down for 3,812 yards. So he's near that 4,000. It's a great year and 24 passing touchdowns. But when you split that with all the options, including Larry Fitzgerald Hall of Famer, who is obviously going to get his.

I mean, that puts Christian Kirk for me. He's a wide receiver 46. Right now he's the seventh, or I'm sorry, he's a seventh round pick, and he's basically identical to Alan Robinson and Curtis Samuel. I would take both of those guys. Do you have anything to weigh in, Mike, or you just? I lean on the side that I know you can't make the math add up in your head. Yeah, that's been my problem. When I go into the stats. Give Kyler 10,000 yards. Then what happens? Then what happens? Let's find out. Booboo, boop. Kyle Murray is now my.

QB1. Imagine that. All right. Okay. All right. You want to temper my Christian Kirk after I temper your carry on. You get all the information here on this show. You get both sides of every player. And then you can actually say, I like this argument. I like this data better. And make wise decisions. All right. That means there's one bust remaining. There is. Plus Mike's pick. Hey, oh.

All right, go ahead. For me, it's James White. And I hear a lot of people talking, they love James White, they love scooping him up in the middle of the draft. They think he's an excellent value there. But here's my problem with James White and what happened last year. He said, entered his fifth year, or, you know, he entered his fifth year last year, and he had.

113 regular season carries. He jumped up. That's the many carries he had total. He hit 94 carries just last year. He had coming into that season, two regular season rushing touchdowns. That jumped up to five. He had five in the season last year. He had never seen more than 86 targets in a season. Had 123 last year. This nugget from Good Friend of the Show, Scott Barrett.

Last year, James White had a 21.4 target share of New England's passing attempts. Up into that point, up into James White last year, the highs for a running back were James White at 15.6%. Before that, Kevin Falk at 13.8, before that, Shane Vareen at 12.6. For the Patriots. Yes, for the target share from Tom Brady. I mean, that's an outrageous jump. James White, who had.

had 15.6 jumping up to 21.4. It just, it doesn't add up to me. His career fantasy finishes. Running back 41, 28, 41, 8. Everything went right. One of these things is not like the other. That's a hard one to say. Everything went right for white. That's my new, that's my new slogan. Try it out. Look, last year with Burkehead in eight games, he was scoring 13 PPR points.

Without Burkhead, that jumped up to 21 points a game. Last year, games with Sony, 13 of them. He had 16 PPR points, which is still good. But that skyrockets to 23 points when Sony Michelle's out.

He took advantage of his opportunity with Burkhead missing time, with Sony missing time. Those two guys are still there. And now we are adding Damian Harris into the mix as well. Who can catch the ball. Who can catch the ball. I just don't see a world where James White sees anywhere near the same workload that he received last year. I'm not drafting James White anywhere because Miles Sanders is always sitting there or Lamar Miller or better choices. I don't disagree with your arguments at all.

To me, James White is, in case of emergency, break the glass and inside is James White in all circumstances, like an amped up Gervorius Allen who kept finding himself in situations in Baltimore where, well, it's another Givorius Allen because we don't have anybody else to throw to. So I think if things go according to plan for the Patriots, what you're saying about White comes true. I think if things go away from what the Patriots want to happen, James White will find himself as.

the favorite wingman of Tom Brady. So he's a more situational play where, oh, man, this guy's hurt this week. This guy's out. Gordon suspended. Yeah, Weeks. Burkhead can't stay healthy. Sony Michelle has had his own injury problem. So there is a world where James White is the cheese and he's just standing alone in that backfield, just him and Damien Harris as the only healthy guys. And then he will return. But I'm not going to draft the guy in the fifth round.

banking on, okay, these two other guys have to miss time in order for my pick to return value. Yeah, if you look at the season totals for James White, it's very easy to make a positive narrative. But when you do look at a game-by-game basis and what actually happened, week seven, when Sony goes down and only gets four carries, then James White takes over for the next three games. And in that three-game stretch, when he had the opportunity just granted to him, he had 30 carries in three games.

and 30 targets in those three games. It was insane, and he meant a lot to fantasy owners. And the reward for meaning a lot to fantasy owners is an average draft position where he is right now. It's kind of like, thank you. We appreciate you. I'm going to draft you. And then you might, I mean, you're going to feel really uncomfortable putting him into your lineup in week one. Yes, I agree with that. Because you're going to have to. If you're in a full PPR league, he's still going to be a guy that you can rely on.

for a number of catches each game, similar to how year after year after year, you could play Theoretic. He's not great in real life. He's not great for fantasy, but he's serviceable. He plays a role. And, you know, if he drops in a draft and a full PPR, I would still look at him. But he's not, you know, he was a top 12 guy. And that's not who he is. All right. Well, those are our bus picks. We've still got a couple other shows. Brooks, how are you doing?

Excellent. What other shows do we have coming up here? What are you going to tease? Give me the tease. This week, Sleepers and Values shows coming up. All right. Sleepers and Values coming up, so don't miss that. And I wanted to speak. We posted an announcement on Twitter. The Fantasy Footballers are coming to Sirius XM radio. I wanted to make sure that this was very clear what exactly is happening with the Fantasy Footballers and Sirius XM.

Nothing is changing about this podcast. Nothing is changing about the Foot Clan. Nothing is changing anywhere on what we do. The only thing that's changing is there's going to be an extra episode, a radio show live from 5 to 7 Eastern, each and every Thursday. Live Jason. Yeah, you hear that, Jay? Yes. So Brooks has got the, he's got a really oversized mute Jason button over there in case of emergency. I've cut the cord on it already. And we just have a bunch of quotes from you that we can substitute in case you're,