Busts + Buy or Sell: Hot Takes Edition

Yeah, I mean, Mike and I were in L.A. yesterday shooting some stuff for the NFL League 1 coming to a screen near you. But we were talking about Damien Williams and, you know, where we stand right now. And I believe that Damien Williams will have a successful role, but that if he loses it for a moment.

He might not get it back. There's just no investment in the team. And if Darwin Thompson were to take over, if Damien Williams gets a hamstring injury in week three, he's not a Melvin Gordon type. Or when he comes back, he's just got the job. He's the guy. That's my worry. So when it comes to him being a bust pick, I am perfectly fine with that. Alex Collins was this category last year. Didn't play in the preseason. The guy, no matter what, compensated. Blum, bum, blah. So.

That happens to players every year. Mike, I respect the fact that you disagree. I respect the fact that you're a big Damian Williams believer. I respect the fact that you have them in your dynasty team. I do. So I just don't like where he's going. And look, I get it. I see, I try to be realistic and see both sides of it. And just to speak to from my position, one, Andy Reid, I know he said, he said committee.

But also over this offseason, there was just praise heaped upon Damian Williams saying he's the guy. He's going to have all the opportunities. He's just now at this point, he just has to go out there and produce. Then he got hurt. And as is often to happen in the NFL, when a player gets hurt in training camp and can't practice, coaches do get frustrated. But all signs...

still point to Damien Williams being the starter. He was in preseason week two. He was out there for the entire first drive that was put on ice because he's still being worked back in. As far as talent, I disagree with Jason. I think Damian Williams is actually a talented running back. He went undrafted for reasons that had nothing to do with him as a running back. They were off the field things. And if you, in talent and opportunity, run through the rest of the roster. Damian Williams is by far a better running back, especially in the system that Kansas City runs.

than Carlos Hyde. I mean, you have, Carlos Hyde was the original reason why people were jumping off of Damien Williams bandwagon over the offseason. And now they're talking about Carlos Hyde might not even make this team. I like Darwin Thompson. I think he is a good player, but he still is a six-round draft pick, and he's a 200-pound guy. Like, he can't come in and be the beef that Damien Williams can.

So I think that Williams is safer. I think that's what he has dropped in ADP. That's what we're talking about is safety. And it makes sense he drops in ADP because at the beginning of the soft season, Darwin Thompson wasn't on the roster. The refrain from Andy Reid was not committee-based. It was Damien Williams. Now it's turned into a committee. And he hadn't heard his hamstring. So every little shot over the last couple months has reduced my confidence level in Damien Williams having a consistent workload.

Things could go right for him, and being on that offense is worth its weight in gold, because even if he loses workload, he's still going to be productive. That's why this bust means, to me, I would love to take Damien Williams, you know, after the David Montgomery, Chris Carson, Devont of Freeman territory. Sure. There is absolutely risk with Damien Williams, but just to go to your comp of how you like Chris Carson more, I don't mind that. I really like Chris Carson for this year.

In my estimation of fantasy football realms of possibility, Damien Williams can finish as a top five running back. I don't think that Chris Carson can unless he sees this, it sees a huge bump in his past catching opportunity, which can happen. But would be necessary for that tier. Yes. All right. Who wants to go next with their bus pick? I'll go next with one that might be a head scratcher at first, right? Because.

I'm throwing out Kareem Hunt as a gigantic bust. Now, you might say, well, how can he bust? He's in the eighth round. Zero points week one. Right. Zero points week two. I guarantee. Keep going. Oh, you're guaranteeing. Here's why I wanted to bring him up, though. We were doing a live draft, a real draft, and Kareem Hunt was drafted in the eighth round. And I was like, what? And then I went and I looked at ADP. And Kareem Hunt is going in the eighth round. And then we did a draft yesterday. And Kareem Hunt went.

in the eighth round. And all I want is I want the Fook clan to know that you're not going to be part of that. The Fook Klan will not be partakers in drafting Kareem Hunt and clogging your binge. You will not partake. And ruining. It makes no. Formal ban. Formal ban from Jason. I mean, the game strategy of drafting Kareem Hunt is nonsensical. He's missing the first eight weeks plus a bye week.

Okay, so the first week you can possibly play this player is week 10. Now, you're not going to play him that week because you don't know what the role is, barring, okay, Nick Chubb got injured in week four and now you know you're just waiting. Barring that situation, you're talking about week 11 now. And the only way you play him in week 11 is if in week 10 he comes out and was super awesome. But the reality is he's a backup. Yes. When he comes back, he's a backup.

Running back, what are you doing? Here's some guys that will help your team that are being drafted behind Kareem Hunt. Sammy Watkins. Okay, say whatever you want about the Lizard King. But he's he's the king now. He's the man. He took over the top seat. Yeah, you want either shot on the Green Bay wide receiver 2, Geronimo, Allison or MVS. Didi Westbrook, all of our my guy quarterbacks, you know, Cam, golf, Russell Wilson.

Like, these are valuable players. Not Russell. Oh, come on. Don't get that going again. I guess we'll start about, we'll talk about that a second. Oh, he is yours. I was about to say, I don't know how you don't. Matt, Berita, Adrian Peterson, there's it, I just want, it's a PSA, really. Yes. That Kareem Hunt is not going to help your team this year. Big name. Big name moves up the ADP. Exactly. Don't draft him, Footclan. Let other people.

clog your bench and not be able to make waiver wire moves because they're holding onto a backup running back that they get to play in week 11 they hope. And that's one that's a consensus bus for us as well in the ultimate draft kit. Totally agree. But, you know, mercifully, I was in a mock draft yesterday. 12th round. Oh, I mean, not that you want to take him, but at least you went in the 12th. I'm glad you bring that up, though, because this is one of those things where it's like, okay, if he's available at my last round.

I would never take a roster clog for that long. Don't. So when he drops in value, don't think, ooh, shiny. If you already have him, what do they do? Go trade him to the Nick Chub owner? Sure. Plog his bench? Right. He's a landmine. All right. Mike, you get to bring forth your great boss. Yes. So I will qualify it. I was making a joke. I would draft Russell Wilson before I draft Kareem Hunt.

Just so you know, but the bus I'm going with, it's unfortunately because I love the quarterback, but it is Russell Wilson and his ADP actually has gone down a full round over the last month. And when I think that Russell Wilson is going to bust, this is him busting compared to his ADP. I'm just talking about the range of outcomes.

Russell Wilson last year threw a touchdown on 8.2% of his passes. That is an outrageous number. Before that, his career, his career touchdown percentage was 5.7 before last season. Last year, that would have given him 26 touchdowns, putting him in the range of maybe you want to stream Russell Wilson sometimes, and he finishes as the quarterback 16. Since the year 2000, there had been eight times a quarterback.

has thrown the ball over 150 times and had that touchdown rate, that unsustainable over 8% touchdown rate, the average drop for those quarterbacks the following season has been 3%. Dropping down, that's a huge deal. So like for Russell's ins, talking about Russell, from 8.2 down to 5.2, that's a really, really big difference for fantasy outcome. And players in that list, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady,

Aaron Rogers, you're talking first ballot Hall of Fame quarterbacks having these huge outlier years and then seeing the natural regression that just happens after a big season. He's not going to repeat being a perfect passer to Tyler Lockett, who is a deep threat. Lockett's catch percentage went from 66% to 81. Like, this was a magic ear for Tyler Lockett. I'm not taking that away from him, but Lockett went from seasons of two touchdowns, one touchdown.

jumped all the way up to 10 because the magic dust just happened to land upon Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett last year. Russell Wilson is fine. If people are letting him slide in the draft, I'm okay taking the shot on him, but I just see massive, massive regression coming to his passing touchdown volume. Sure, he'll probably throw the ball a little bit more, but that's not the game plan for Seattle. Would you rather...

I know, and we've heard it. We don't have to beat it into the ground because we talked through Russell a little bit. You guys have discussed him. Obviously, Jason, you could get back at him here with your thoughts. But would you take Russell Wilson or Kyla Murray? Because I think that's an interesting situation. Then we went back to back in the 12th round of a mock I was in yesterday. Russell Wilson's history and pedigree. Like I talked about this on the show. I felt like your thoughts on Russell Wilson are painting two.

too negative a light, kind of like I thought Jason was painting for Matt Ryan. Like you were both grading them at their basement. Right. As opposed to like the middle ground of like maybe he's not that good. Maybe he's not what he was last year, but maybe he's not 16 since he's never finished there. But who would you rather have in that situation? I think I'm going to take Kyler, things didn't look great in that game, but I'm going to take Kyler based off of what the offense, what the coaching staff, they're saying they want that offense to be. They want it to run through Kyler.

Seattle doesn't want their offense to run through Russell Wilson. They wanted to run through Carson and Rashad Penny. Yeah, the only thing I would say is when Peyton Manning lost on his, you know, great numbers that fell down after his electric passing touchdown run. Yeah, it was still a great year. Yeah, he had a great year, but he couldn't just, oh, he adds 150 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. Because like on average, Russell Wilson has three rushing touchdowns.

per season and last year at zero. So, okay, let's say you take away four passing touchdowns, give him three rushing touchdowns and fantasy scoring. That's identical. So I think Russell will make it up. We've got a water bet on record through the wheel of water app. Yes. So I think he's going to be a top 12 quarterback. You don't. All right. Both sides. All right. Now I get to do this. I get to do this one. I'm sorry. My second bus pick.

Again, it's an ADP adjustment. It's a belief adjustment. It's maybe a stifling of the ADP rise. It's Carryon Johnson. Boo! I'm sorry. I'm sorry. You should be. I know what that means to our relationship. I know what that means to your propensity to share your White Castle with me. Not going to happen. No sliders for you. But I want... This is actually great news. My problem with Carrie on Johnson is...

pretty similar to the one that I brought up before. But I want to talk about a few other things. I think he's going too high. I think this comes down to a lens problem for fantasy owners. They know how talented Kerry-on Johnson is when he's on the field and he's healthy. And you get to watch him. And I look at the comp of a 2017 Joe Mixing a little bit with Carrie-on Johnson this year where...

Nobody doubts that Joe Mixins is one of the best pure talents in football. I don't doubt that Karian Johnson is one of the best pure talents in football. There's a reason he dropped in the NFL draft. And that reason has to do with durability concerns. If you go back to the scouting reports that you look at when Karian was drafted, his frame might not hold up. He runs too upright. He might not hold up to the long haul. These are the same scouting reports that the Lions...

had when they drafted Kerry on Johnson. He didn't drop? Drop to the second round? Where they traded up to get him? Yes. He did drop from, okay, he didn't drop. He didn't get drafted in the first round, not because of talent, but because of durability. His talent in college was worthy of being a high first round type of draft pick. His durability knocked him down, and it knocked him down in scout's eyes. In high school college, left, right shoulder, sprained MCL, broken thumb while in college, ribs, hamstring, ankle, shoulder.

First season, knees and toes. Yeah, first season last year where he gets an opportunity doesn't hold up. The team isn't blind. The lens that they have is one where we need to use Kerry on Johnson in an appropriate fashion to avoid durability concerns. We've seen preseason so far. There is a worst case scenario for Carry on Johnson. That's what I believe. The worst case scenario is if you take what happened in preseason game one and apply it, which obviously Kerion is going to be on the field.