NFC North Breakdown + The Last Dance, Crazy Promises! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/27

but still a huge ceiling. I mean, he won you weeks, except for when Irv Smith stole his touchdowns at the end of the year. Irv. Yeah, I mean, Dalvin Cook should be drafted number two. The only argument you could make against that is just health and the fact that he's dealt with a lot of different injuries. He's had a couple of major catastrophic knee injuries. He's got a shoulder injury that has a high rate, historically statistically speaking of being re-aggravated again at some point in the career. So if you wanted...

to avoid injury risk there. That's the only reason to not take Dalvin Cook at two, and everybody can get injured. So I'm not pivoting off of him as my number two. Justin Jefferson's going in the third round. He's the wide receiver eight off the board. That doesn't seem too expensive for me. You know, 1,400 plus yards last year. It's not statistically likely that he's able to come out and repeat that. No. But I also saw a player that was, you know,

worked into the lineup, right? That number was reflective of still starting the year with very few snaps. The first two weeks, he was not a big part of anything that the Vikings were doing. It wasn't until week three where he really got involved. So factoring that in, I mean, he was just truly... That was a 1,600-yard pace. So if he drops down to 1,400 this year. Yeah, he was truly amazing. I don't have a problem with drafting him as the wide receiver 8. I've got him right now as my wide receiver 9.

So he's about that range. And of course, while I expect him to be worse this season fantasy-wise than he was his rookie season, which is not the normal trajectory, but normal doesn't count when you have the greatest rookie wide receiver season of all time. There is still the world where he just gets better. And you have upside baked into going into his second year where you say maybe we just still amazingly haven't seen the best of him yet. Well, you know Kirk throws a great deep ball. You know Justin Jefferson.

was the best at that during the year. And he only scored in three of the last 10 games of the season. What a loser. I think that's the area where he could improve even if the yardage doesn't stay high. Thielen's going in the fifth round, middle of the fifth. Are you drafting Adam Thielan there? Man.

I went into this offseason like, look, Thielen's still great. He's going to be amazing because watching film last year, he looked amazing. You could not stop him at the goal line. I have seen absolutely nothing to say Adam Thielen has slowed down and I can't get myself to pull the trigger on him when I'm staring at him in a draft because it's just like you don't want to be holding the bag at the age 31 cusp and you're like.

It's a run first team. Jefferson's the one now. Is this going to be the time where the touchdowns don't come and you're just really disappointed? That's how I feel. Mike, would you rather run out Robert Woods or Thielen as your wide receiver too? I would go with Robert Woods. I'm very concerned for Adam Thieland's upside this year. Yep. Yeah, the upside. I think that's a good way to say it. I think he'll be fine. And it's drafters are being savvy about it. You know, the.

When Adam Thielen was at the heights, he was not going as the wide receiver 21. But it's, you know, seeing him get up back up to the top, I don't see it there.

Yeah, I agree with you guys. I mean, the Adam Thielen you used to have was one that had a floor that was higher than the one we saw last year. You know, you had five times outside the top 40 over the last half of the year, two catches, three catches, three catches, two catches. That wasn't something that you ever saw from Adam Thielen in days gone by. Adam Thielen has been a top 10 wide receiver three times in the last four years, including this past season. R-E-S-B-C-T. See if you can spot the difference in how they came.

One of the times he had 91 receptions, one of the times he had 113 receptions, and last year he had 74 receptions. It is dicey. Yeah, Irv Smith, we've talked about it. He's currently being drafted as the tied-in 12. I think the world is higher on Irv Smith than the three of us are. They are. Yeah, they are. They are. But this is one of those, whatever. Tight-in 12. Kirk Cousins could be 30-plus touchdowns again. So, Irv Smith, can he break into the top six? Absolutely.

Absolutely he can. Top three? No. No. This is still a team that's going to run the ball a lot. It's just touchdowns. Kyle Rudolph is gone, which is great for the opportunity for Irv Smith to take that leap forward. He certainly projects as someone who could do that. So I'm fine if you want to take your shot on Earth Smith. He's just not the guy I have been taking my shot on. Okay. The Lions were 5 and 11 last year. What do you think their win total is at going into this season? Four and a half.

You're probably right. I mean, five? Four and a half. There you go. Yeah. I didn't hate it. They were five and eleven last year, but they started three and three. Yeah, but they are. They're not the same team. They're also curling, you know, 110 pound dumbbells. Oh, right now with Dan Campbell? Yeah. He's got them going. Oh, Guns Mahoney. It's actually incredible. Everything that you mentally picture about who the lions are.

just erase it from your brain. This might as well be an expansion team from Detroit because Stafford, Ghaladay, Marvin Jones, Almondola, Peterson, carry on, all gone. The new Lions is Jared Gough, Tyrell Williams, Rashad Perryman, Jamal Williams, Darren Fells. This is the NFC Texans, at least on paper. From a roster standpoint. It's a two-team race for the number one pick. It feels that way, although I will give.

Like, I think the lions are going to fight their way to some wins that we don't see coming. I mean, it happens every year in the NFL with certain teams. You know, we just talked about what, Chicago knocking off Tampa Bay on Thursday night and things like that. I think the lions are going to fight tooth and nail. Dan Campbell, biting kneecaps. Anthony Lynn leading that offense and Swift and Williams. I don't know. I would probably take the over. Is that shock you?

Well, no, they set the line at a place where you're questioning. I mean, five wins is not a super high bar to get to, especially in a 17 week season. But I understand what you're saying. This is a team that is literally trying to build themselves about grit, about mental toughness and being the more testosterone-filled team. And from week to week that...

that can work from week to week. The problem is they don't have a ton of talent, and that's at the end of the day, that's really what's going to be what wins games. Yeah, I mean, I feel like if you had a defense, you could hang your hat on, these offensive players could piece together some wins, but being 32nd in points against in the rebuild mode, new head coach, new coordinator, that does seem challenging. I didn't know this. Since 1957, no hired.

Lions head coach has ever gotten another head coaching job after leaving the Lions. What? So that is, I mean, Guns Mahoney had to make a decision here. Get your one head coaching job? I don't know if he knows that stat. He might not. So they've lost their, I mean, the best quarterback they've ever had is gone. 60% of the running back touches last year, gone, 90% of their targets. I mean, Quintes Cephas.

is the only wide receiver on the roster remaining from last year, and he had 35 targets for them. So, you know, this is all brand new. We do, Jason, you brought it up the other day. Jared Goff has, you know, we kind of have a tendency to make light of Jared Goff situation because he went to Detroit. He wasn't the answer in Los Angeles, but he still provided fantasy value with Sean McVeigh. Yes.

to a number of past catchers in years past. Obviously, we've been big fans of Robert Woods and Cooper Cup led by Jared Goff. The question really becomes, was it led by Jared Goff or was it led by Sean McVeigh? Again, at the end of the day, the talent on the field is what's getting it done. So you've got to give Jared Goff his credit. He is not a bad. Oh, introducing Jared Goerf. But Jared Goer. That doesn't help me take him more seriously at all.

He can get the job done. The problem is he doesn't have Robert Woods. He doesn't have Cooper Cup. And he doesn't have Sean McVeigh. So this is why I like Swift as my running back 14 because I think the dump-offs will have to come. And I like T.J. Hawkinson to really level up.

T.J. Hawkinson is going to be a solid tight end this season. I think he leads this team in targets. I think he is the best pass-catching option on the roster. I don't know that that- You think he leads the team in targets? I think he leads the team in targets, yes, because Tyrol Williams, Brashad Perriman, the Hodgepott, Ammonra St. Brown, the hodgepodge of- You're talking about then, like,

90 plus targets. I mean, oh, yeah. You know what? If you're leading a team, then you... 115 was his pace for the first 14 weeks last year with Stafford, with Marvin, with Kenny G, although injured. He was on 115 target pace through 14 games. I have Hawkinsed down for 135 targets. That's why when we talk about the break out, the problem is will he get the touchdowns to really...

level all the way up to that next tier. And I don't think he will. But again, I think he's a solid option, a really good player this year. I have a difficulty drafting him at, you know, if he's going in the fifth round, there's really, really good wide receivers there. And if he doesn't get the touchdowns to follow the targets, I'd just, I'd rather stream the position and have depth at wide receivers. It's just a game strategy. It's nothing against T.J. Hawkinson. But I do. I think he.

I would be surprised if he doesn't leave the team in targets. All the big tight ends, Kelsey Waller, Andrews, Kittle, we're all in that 24, 25% target's their number. Last year, Hawkinson was at 18. So if you think he's going to make the jump forward, look, a bet on the lines is a tough bet for me to make in general. But I can see it. I see the path because I don't know how to tell you which of these wide receivers to put your, you know, to bank on because somebody's going to have value.

This is the NFL, right? Like there's somebody that's going to step forward on the field. And Jared Goff is not a bum. Right. Where you have to stop him from passing at all. I'm saying that there are teams out there where the quarterback play is just like last year's jets. I guess even James and Crowder had a couple games here or there. But if there's, if the quarterback is garbage, then there may not be value on the team. But Jared Goff is an okay competent quarterback.

So I'm with you that I think there is, there will be value to extract somewhere. I just, I need my, I need the telescope. Yeah, I agree with you. And that makes me actually circle back to Andy, you saying you'd take the over on the four and a half. And I actually, I kind of agree because I think that's probably about what the Texans are. And if I look at the quarterback situation there, which is the most important position on the field, Jared Goff is.

miles and worlds and yards and all sorts of distance metrics better than Tyra Taylor. Several tutus better. Oh, yeah. If you lay him down, like how tall he is. Well, did you see that they're going to try and modify the two-two? That's right. They are looking to add weight onto the two-two. He just went on the COVID list today. But, oh, that's not going to help him put on the weight. No. Do remember that no matter what he gains, he still remains. One-two-two. Yeah.

So if you're heavier and you're trying to be fewer tutus, this might be great news for you. Oh, yeah, if you don't care about the change of weight and you just want the two-to number. The baseline is changing. Breschad Perryman, Tyro Williams, Ammon Ross St. Brown, Quintess, Cephas. That's the wide receiver room. Vacated targets? Yeah, all of them, pretty much. Perryman, to me, looked at, I mean, look, I haven't seen him on Raw St. Brown at the NFL level.

Tyrell, to me, looks done. Cephas, I thought, was okay. But Perryman has actually impressed me at the NFL level in recent years. So when you look at all of those things considered, I like Perryman the most. Now, a Detroit Beat Rider came out and said, if I were a betting man, I'd take Amon Rae St. Brown and a healthy Tyrell. So maybe Tyrell was just too hurt, but I don't know if he can stay. Well, Tyrell did not play.

all of 2020. Yeah, and he'll be 30 this year. He opted out for COVID and was actually good the last time that we saw him for the Raiders. So I do think that he's... He opted out for COVID? Yeah, right? That's how I don't think so. I think it was an injury. I thought he was like one of the absolute first guys to opt out. Maybe I am misremembering that. We will vet that, but I thought he opted out for COVID. Now, they placed them on season-ending injury reserve on September 1st of last year.