NFC North Breakdown + The Last Dance, Crazy Promises! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/27

But 9.1. 9.1% of his attempts turned into a passing touchdown. That is absurd. When you look at it historically, I don't have the numbers right in front of me, but essentially when someone has enough passing volume and they hit that type of a mark, you can expect that to regress by at least 2%. Now, which is a huge amount of touchdowns. You're going to lose a lot. But that still keeps him in that seven range, which Aaron Rogers can easily hit that.

threshold so yeah he's still going to be solid for for fantasy football but that natural regression coming off of an MVP year combined with the the natural regression for passing touchdowns across the league because of how many we saw last year with the uh the shortened off season so yeah things are going to come down but erin rogers is still a should still be a top option for fantasy football and if you were able to buy that dip in drafts i was watching a

Some friends do a best ball draft. And there we're in the double digit rounds. Yeah. And there's Aaron Rogers just hanging out. It's absurd to see where he was going. I get it. Like people were freaked out that he wasn't going to be there or retire. But if you got it early, congratulations. For an example, 8.6% is what Mahomes had during his 50 touchdown year.

He dropped to 5.4, then 6.5. 6.5 put him at 38 touchdowns after a... So, you know, just giving you a perspective on that kind of a change, Jason. You were saying something? Yeah, for sure. I was looking at the last eight years of Aaron Rogers while he's been one of the best in the league. In his prime, he has averaged 5.9% of his passing attempts as a touchdown. So to be up at 9 is...

Very, very high. That would have been 32 touchdowns last year based on his passing volume if he were to throw what his average, which his average is way above, you know, NFL average is around four and a half. He's 5.9. So, yeah, I mean, you expect Tunyon to not have as many touchdowns. Adams and Aaron Jones to not have as many receiving touchdowns necessarily. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon are the new backfield. Jamal Williams is gone. We'll talk about him later in the show when we get to the Lions.

But A.J. Dillon, week 16 last year, went 21 for 124 and 2, a kind of a little taste of what his quadriceps are capable of. Oh, what could have been for my dynasty team. Oh, with Aaron Jones potentially leaving. Yeah. You know what? I think you're okay. I know. Okay. You'll get to play A.J. Dillon this year. I believe that. I do, too. But what, here's the question I have about A.J. Dillon. And there was, there was some news earlier.

regarding A.J. Dillon that I didn't bring up in our, where they're smoke, their spire. Essentially, they're just saying they're going to get, they want A.J. Dillon more involved. And it's inferring that they want A.J. Dillon more involved than Jamal Williams was last year. So when Aaron Jones was healthy. Because they're different, because Jamal Williams was involved in the passing game. Yeah. My question to you guys is, what does a great A.J. Dillon season look like on, on the stat side.

What is a great year for him? I would say a great fantasy season for him would be that he becomes the goal line guy and ends up with 8, 9, 10 touchdowns, which is really the crux here, because I don't think they're going to utilize him as a past catching specialist the way that Jamal Williams was used. So you're talking about maybe he gets 200 carries.

or close to that a good amount of yards. And it's really about the touchdowns to me. And the nice thing here is I would so much rather have a situation like this year than last year, where this year you could encroach on the goal line opportunities with the quads in A.J. Dillon. But that opens up more passing work for Aaron Jones, where he is truly electric. I think Alvin Camara-esque in the sense of he doesn't get as many rushing attempts, but his passing volume is where his fantasy.

points really come from. So I think both players could have a very solid fantasy output this season. I think it, does it threaten Aaron Jones? Because he has been such a high touchdown player. If Dylan's the goal line back, then yes. Because 16 touchdowns on the ground for Jones in his number two finish. Nine last year. You're right. I mean, he's a very valuable pass catching weapon, but it does seem like the team doesn't want him on the field all the time.

I guess what did you do with Aaron Jones with the news that Jamal was leaving and with AJ Dylan's resurgence? So like I mentioned, his passing work went up. His touchdowns came down. I have him with 80 targets this season, which would be up from his 63 last year. But his rushing touchdowns down and those going more to AJ Dylan. I've got AJ Dylan with seven rushing touchdowns. If you believe that the touchdown percentage for Rogers.

what is going to change just based on, you know, how anomalous that is, then you still believe they're a great offense. You still believe that, you know, like two years ago, maybe you do have 15, 16, 17 rushing touchdowns open to be grabbed by both players. Is that fair?

Yeah, but it is important to note that when we talk about all this touchdown throwing percentage, it's not that all those touchdowns are going to be run in. That team as a whole was just exceptionally efficient in scoring. I think that the Green Bay Packers will still be a good offense, but they're going to score fewer touchdowns in 2021 than they did last year. What do we do with the wide receiver room outside of Devante Adams? I mean, he's firmly at top your list now.

Oh, yeah. He's my number one wide receiver. He's too targeted, too great at the in the red zone and at the goal line. He should be everyone's number one wide receiver in my opinion. I love Tyree Kill. You know, Hopkins is great. But Adams, now that you know Aaron Rogers is there, I can't make an honest argument for him to not be number one. As far as the rest of the wide receiver group, there isn't one. There isn't a rest of the, there is.

There's one wide receiver on this team. It's Devante Adams. Mike, is there any value anywhere else for Aaron Rogers? If there is like a really late round flyer, if you want to take it on Alan Lazard, I am okay with it. The first three weeks of last year, I mean, he was a top 14 wide receiver in two of those three games. Then he got hurt. So if there, I'm more with on Jason's side that it's.

It's Adams and then the occasional touchdown to Robert Tunyon. But if there's value to another wide receiver, people are excited for Amari Rogers, their new rookie wide receiver they took in the third round, I believe. But to me, if it's any of them that has value on a consistent basis, I'd still bet on Lizard. You guys will find this interesting because Jason just brought up like you're not necessarily going to see the running back score more touchdowns. This will back up what you're saying.

Two years ago when Aaron Jones had the big touchdown year, they had 18 total rushing touchdowns. Last year, they had 16 total rushing touchdowns as a team. They're passing touchdowns, or receiving, I should say, went from 26, two years ago to 48. So that's pretty incredible to go more than double or basically. Truly an insane number. And the reality is part of that is because when they got on the goal line, they were as.

Good at Devante Adams' touchdown as they were as rushing a touchdown in, which is abnormal. Robert Tanya, right now being drafted as the tight end 11 with the Aaron Rogers doubt. Will that go up and is it worthwhile? Because to me, he is the biggest, like, he was just too efficient catching touchdowns last year for the total volume.

that I'm afraid he's going to be a wasted pick that people feel committed to, right? You take that tight end in the middle rounds. Let's say he goes in the sixth round when all said and done. I would not be. You would feel committed to Tonya. Yeah. Middle round. 11 touchdowns last year. Middle round tight ends. They don't work out. And I know that that's a point for Jason's of avoid Kyle Pitts. But for Robert Tunyon, the ninth round, great.

I mean, if you're going to punt the position, you're going after a tight end, you want them associated with a quarterback who's going to throw a large amount of touchdowns. This was my point in favor of Gerald Everett, like if you want to go with him at the end of the draft. So as long as Robert Tunyon stays eight, nine, maybe in the back of the seventh, I'm okay with it. But I would not take him in the sixth round. Okay.

Shall we move on? Anything else with the Packers do you want to discuss? No, I think we've exhausted it. Is Devin Funch is still on that roster? I think so. Can we get a, Brooks, can you please vet that? This is very, very important. Yeah, very important. I'm not sure I have the ability to even hit that drop, but we need to really. If he's on that roster, we need to really, you need to tell me if he's on the roster. What do you got for me? Hit it. It's been too long. It's great. It's good to have him back.

Last time we did that, he got hurt again. So hopefully we can avoid it. The Bears called him Devin S. Scruptious. Yeah. That was you, wasn't it? We all. Of course it was you. Yeah. I mean, it started as Count Von Bunches Bunches. I don't know. We're a weird show, man. I think that one nickname of the year that year, too. When we look back at how stupid it is, does that mean we're growing up?

Nah. No, I mean, I'm just highlighting. Darnel Anderson. I still love it. Okay. All right. The Bears were 8 and 8 last year. Traubst key season is over. Oh, man. And they only had one win versus a team with a winning record. Managed to beat Tampa Bay last year on Thursday night. It's a new quarterback room in Chicago. And they welcome in Andy Dalton. They drafted Justin Fields. Burley Dalton. Oh, with the beard? Oh, man.

Upgrade. Wasn't I Andy Dalton for Halloween last year? Yeah. And you had to shave your face. I was two years ago. Last year I was Cliff Kingsbury. But yeah, I had to shave my face and now I could have just dyed the beard red. He's looking good. It's very red. It's a red beard. It'll probably help. I mean, you're in Chicago now. I guess cold. Yeah. Right? Like it wasn't cold in Cincinnati. Yeah, exactly.

All right, the Bears didn't score more than 30 points in a game until week 14. I would say that they were kind of a gritty bunch last year. They battled their way to 8 and 8 despite all the problems at quarterback. They figured it out on the ground towards the end of the year. Say what you will about the matchups they had. Lots of people have great matchups that do, and they do nothing against them. David Montgomery strung together.

eight touchdowns in a five-week span as the running back two. And then we don't know what the Andy Dalton, Justin Fields process is going to be. I have some Bears fan friends, said that awkwardly, that think, you know, remember what happened when Trubisky was drafted? Didn't we go into the year with Mike Lennon? Remember they paid him to be the starter? And it was like one game later or two games later they had made the transition.

Best laid plans, they fall apart under the weight of losses. I have Andy Dalton down for two games. I do think he starts the season. I think they pull the plug quickly and will make the transition to fields. But I mean, there is, while I believe that, there is very little other than looking at the history of this coaching staff and trying to project how good each player will be. Outside of those, you know,

pieces of the hypothesis, it's mostly a guess. And so the reality is when you're betting on bears right now, you have to just say, we don't know who the quarterback is. The range of outcomes are either an Andy Dalton who's not great. Which she was not last year. Exactly. I mean, nobody, you know, the DAC to Dalton was a huge, huge difference for the Cowboys. Or you've got a rookie quarterback, even if you love Joseph Fields, which I think all three of us do. Yeah.

A rookie quarterback is not the best for the passing game. So I think the... It's interesting because we've been going into the year projecting this team with trash a quarterback every year. Yeah. So it's not like we're really working from a different worst position necessarily. Can't wait for next year. There's actually some upside and some potential. They start the season and it looks like it has two and two written all over it. In Los Angeles, taking on the Rams, at home against Cincinnati, on the road against Cleveland,

at home against Detroit. I think Justin Fields. I think it'll be a little while. I was going to say the exact opposite. Week two. It's week two or week four, Justin Fields will be starting. Okay. I am not there. I'm not there. Sacrifice Dalton in week one. If Andy Dalton had shown anything last year, he would have been paid to be a starting quarterback this year. Yeah, it would have been a lot easier for him to find a job number one. And it's like digging into.