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Main show · February 11, 2020

Shocking Stats from 2019 + Buy or Sell

RSSFeb 11, 2020 · transcript indexed
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Shocking Stats from 2019 + Buy or Sell

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Inside the episode

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27:10 ↗

because there seemed to be some serious problems going on in there. Like, let's fix that thing up because Stafford still has plenty of years to play. Stafford was awesome. We highlighted him in the truth about quarterbacks that Stafford will be the forgotten guy when it comes to next year's draft. That he was an absolute beast for his whatever seven or eight game run. And I think Kenny Gawaday is the truth. That was the third year breakout for Kenny Gawaday. I think he can still improve.

27:39 ↗

And he's going to get those air yards. Will he get the 10 zone targets? That remains to be seen. But I still, I want my big body receivers to get those, to get the opportunities to get those air yards. And I think Kennedy is just going to keep feasting on them. So, look, I really do love Kenny Gallaudet's talent. And when you pair that up with Matthew Stafford, he is great.

28:06 ↗

But if at the end of the day, I think he will come down from these two stats. And similar to what you saw with Alan Robinson when it just seemed like, well, he was getting everything perfect the following year in 2016. You know, he had the same amount of targets. He also had the same quarterback. Sure. Who was Blake Bortles. Well, yeah, but he had Blake Bortles in 2015 too. Magic happens once for Blake Bortals.

28:34 ↗

He's just, what, do we even have that around? Oh, man, there's no way that our soundboard still has. I don't think it does. Blake the snake in it. Oh, goodness. Sorry, everybody. I got this snake, man. But, you know, the reality was, if you remember that, those were the two years where Blake Bortles had 151 targets, both years in a row. One of those years, he had 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns the following year.

29:03 ↗

He had 883 yards and six touchdowns. He's not going to lead the league in red zone targets and deep passes next year. So even with the quarterback upgrade, I think he's good, but he's not going to take a leap up from where he finished. I got a snake, man. Nicely done. You gave me enough time. I made it happen. That's teamwork. Our next stat.

29:32 ↗

The ominous bell is very appropriate yet again. That sound effect came in when it was Levy on Bell watch two years ago when it was, is Bell coming back this week? Now, like, at least then it was, you wanted to watch. Right. Now it's like avert your eyes. For players with 245 or more carries in a season. Now, real quick, that, that has, there have been 565, 565 players have had 245 carries.

30:02 ↗

Levy on Bell's 52.6 rushing yards per game ranks 563rd out of the aforementioned 565. That's not good. That's very ominous. Good thing they gave them all that money. Look, and it's, and this isn't even me saying is Levy on Bell's fault. There's just, there's so much more that goes into a running game than, oh, I'm just, I'm the best running back.

30:33 ↗

I mean, unless you're Sequin Barclay, who can do everything by himself, even he gets shut down from time to time. If you don't have help from the rest of your team, if you have a black hole calling your plays, you're not going to be able to get it done. So projecting Levi-on-Bell, moving forward, Jason, are you taking the volume? Last year he was the ninth overall pick. I can't imagine he tumbles too far.

31:01 ↗

But let's say Levy on Bell is there in the third round. Would you ever consider going wide receiver, wide receiver, Levy on Bell? I do not want Lev Bell to be my running back one. So I wouldn't do that. Now, would I consider having Lev Bell in the third round? Yeah, I would. I mean, the volume is still. Lev Bell was the running back 17 or something, I believe, this year.

31:30 ↗

That's not good. It's certainly not good when you're drafting him, you know, to be a top 10 back. But if you're drafting him appropriately, if he falls enough, then, yeah, I'll take the volume. Do I believe narratives that they're going to fix the offensive line, another year with Adam Gase? Offensive line, end of season ranking for pro football focus. The Jets were 28th.

31:54 ↗

Right, and so that's a huge area to improve for them. Let's say they go out and sign someone in free agency, they draft someone. You've got another year for Sam Darnel, and obviously he missed part of this year, a little kissing everybody. Oh, when he was the Smooch Bandit. Yeah, yeah. And you've got Adam Gates. So there's going to be narrative of Lev Bell should be drafted very high again because the volume is there and now things are going to start clicking, and I will not.

32:22 ↗

in any way, shape, or form buy into that. Not at all. I don't trust Adam Gase as an offensive mind to get the most out of his players, and I don't think it's a coincidence that on this not great team, a now aging running back getting volume is ending up 563rd out of 565 people. I'm not buying in next year. Let's talk about another old man then real quick. Okay. Adrian Peterson.

32:50 ↗

Very old. Could he possibly be the next Frank Gore? Adrian Peterson had 12 runs of 15 or more yards. That's as many as Ezekiel Elliott. That's one more than Philip Lindsay. That's two more than Alvin Camara. In fact, it's one fewer than the bears, dolphins, and Levion Bell combined. Adrian Peterson. Adrian Peterson. He still has a little bit of juice. And it's worth bringing up.

33:19 ↗

because right now it's being reported that the Washington Redskins are probably picking up. That's why we're highlighting. Yeah, I mean, so he'll be back next year and he'll have fantasy relevant games, moments when biweeks and things like that, injuries happen. He's obviously not going to be a superstar anymore. But when you watched him, you saw that he still, I think it's appropriate. Say he's the next Frank Gore.

33:46 ↗

He's just the guy that every year, year after year after year, and he already has been, is like, well, he's just going to be completely D-U-N done. And he showed this year, I mean, 12 runs of 15 yards or more. You can't do that without still having juice. Now you have the coaching change. Bill Callahan, gone, running guru. And also.

34:14 ↗

Very big fan of old man strength and very big fan of I'm a strong man. I run the ball. Now, will Adrian Peterson see the same opportunity? We'll see the same lanes. And the bigger question is, because Dary's Geis is still there, I mean, the tale of Darius guys that just never seems to get going. If you were a competing team in Dynasty right now, because obviously things can change real quick.

34:43 ↗

Would you trade a fourth round rookie pick for Adrian Peterson? A fourth rounder, sure. I think most fourth rounders. Would you trade a third round rookie pick back of the third for Adrian Peterson? Back of the third. You just moved it from a third to back of the third. Well, I said it because you're a competing team. So I'm assuming that you finish at least in the middle of the pack. Sure. I guess back of the third. This is a really good draft year. If this was last year, I would have been willing to do that. This coming year,

35:13 ↗

I think there's enough depth where I'm keeping the third. All right, let's talk about tight ends. In 2019, five different tight ends had over a 22% market share of their team's targets. You had Zeus, Travis Kelsey, Darren, ooh. Yeah, boo-go-go-go-choo! Darren and I am the Walleris Waller, Mark Mandrews. There's a lot of nicknames in this list.

35:42 ↗

George Kittle and Zach Ertz. Five tight ends over the 20% market share area. Five tight ends that were excellent for your fantasy team. And the last five years prior to that, there's only been three. Every single year, there's been three different tight ends that have had it. So this year, there was, you know, there's more involvement. And I think that the, look, we all saw Kittle.

36:10 ↗

and Kelsey and Ertz doing this, right? They were drafted to be that. So the real stat here is the fact that there were two more unknown or at the very least unproven tight ends. Right. Who then became the target focal leader of their respective offense and that was obviously Darren Waller and Mark Andrews with the Raiders and the Ravens.

36:38 ↗

So are there any other teams that start with Ra that can get their tight ends involved? That's the question. And, I mean, Austin Hooper maybe could have gotten there. No, but that's the Chargers. Not the Rogers. It's the Falcons. Oh, I wasn't even losing. I was thinking Hunter Henry. Yeah, all right. Not the Raulkins. All right. Let me throw you out a couple names.

37:06 ↗

Well, this one's a little bit difficult for Seattle because Will Disley was having a pretty solid year in terms of at least touchdowns. But Jacob Hollister kind of became a very necessary part. Dude, 17% of Seattle's targets. Get out of here with that. No. When he was playing, yes. Jacob Hollister could go away. No. Okay. He's not good enough to demand.

37:33 ↗

a 20 plus percent market share. They dealt with other wide receivers getting injured. That's what I mean. He became very necessary. Yeah. And he's not good enough to demand that going forward. So no, I do not believe that he can be in the 20% next season. All right. It's hard to find names that could possibly make this jump. What about Mike Gassicki? He was just under 15%. This was like a under the radar.

38:02 ↗

Breakout? I don't know exactly what you would want to call that. I think, well, what it really is is it's a pre-breakout if a breakout ever happens. What you saw... It's like he cracked the wall. Yeah, and now he's going to try to, you know, Kool-Aid and through. But he was drafted to be a dominant force. He has the talent, the physical gifts to be that. It's just a matter of whether or not...

38:26 ↗

The scheme will allow him the opportunities to do that. But tight ends take years to develop. We've said this, you know, if you've listened forever, tight ends don't break into the league really quickly or easily. Travis Kelsey wasn't a superstar his rookie year. You know, George Kittle wasn't a superstar early on. It takes a couple years for them to really establish dominance. And I think Gassiki is a name that is worth monitoring. The question is going to be,

38:55 ↗

Their new scheme, obviously, we don't know for sure who the quarterback's going to be. It's going to be Ryan Fitzpatrick. Probably will be. Yeah, and the other weapons, the health of Preston Williams, do they bring in another wide receiver? That's true. I was going to say over the second half, he was averaging over seven targets a game. His yardage was still pretty low at 40 yards a game, but he was on a pace of 10 touchdowns for an entire season. However, Preston Williams' injury kind of...

39:22 ↗

coincides with that timeline. It did. He benefited the most, well, him and Parker both, but Gassiki would not have had the opportunity to break out the way he did the second half of the year if Preston Williams has stayed healthy. That being said, look, this is the NFL where once a guy breaks out, once coaches can see the talent and the way to utilize a guy on the field, they're not just going to go, well, I don't need that anymore. You know, if he can do it. Nice work. Nice work. Get back.

39:51 ↗

Get in the back of the line. So, yeah, I think he's just about the only name that can add to this list. But I expect this list to be smaller. I do not think Darren Waller next season hits the 20%. It's the 20% mark at all. You talk about a team. That will be sad. It will be because it's a great drop. Let's hear it again. They lost Antonio Brown, Tyrol Williams at times, Hunter Renfro at times.

40:21 ↗

He's good, but Walleter was a beneficiary. Yes. All right, let's talk about some teams who aren't who we thought they were because it's the NFL. Wacky things happen. Things get turned upside down sometimes. The Rams who were on this rocket ship trajectory of third, in 2018, there were third in rushing yards, fifth and passing yards, second in points per game.

40:49 ↗

They dropped all the way to 26th in rushing yards per game and 11th in points. I'm actually surprised to see that they managed to hold on to the 11th position. Well, you know, their passing game didn't really take as big a hit as I think. Well, it because they were trying to catch up all the time. So I mean, those were a lot of empty yards.

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