Fantasy Football - Ice & Fire Picks + Undrafted Gems - Podcast for 8/5

And that's not what you want to see. You finally, like a couple of years ago, we saw that the season with Derek Carr where it's like, man, you know what? Some stuff is just not working. And you can't lay it all at the feet of Derek Carr. Like Derek Carr last year had a higher percentage of his games finishing as a top six quarterback than Patrick Mahomes did. But you still saw the benefits going to Rashid Shaheed. And you got Brandon Cooks, who still is probably. You know, he's going to be a piece of the offense. You've got tight ends in the equation, and you've got a team that's probably going to be in the bottom third and scoring. Now, maybe they surprise a little bit. If they do, it's going to have to involve... No, they're going to surprise you worse. I mean, it's really going to be a difficult thing for Crystal Lave to get into the end zone because it's always been a difficult thing when their team was good. I mean, he has five receptions inside the 10.

since he got to the league he's never been a top five that is five in 39 games he's never been what top five on a week no no he is a name that that betrays the reality of his situation anymore and you you shut up Shut up. Just shut your mouth. I still do believe that he is a great player. I don't think great is the right word. I don't. I don't think that it's not justifiable statistically to me. I think you can say good. You could say the best of the Saints. He's definitely the best wide receiver of the Saints. I don't know if that's for sure.

I don't think I think Rashid Shaheed has a skill set in different areas of the field that I like a lot more. And we all were like, why is Derek Hartthorne in the football and not Olave? And it happened for two years. So I think you're probably right. I think it should be Olave. He's more well-rounded. But he also showed that, look, lack of concentration on certain routes. He had some drops. He's got the concussion issue. He's got Schuck and Rattler and Hainer. Like that is a law firm. That ain't a quarterback room. I have no problem. I got a snake, man.

Oh, Spencer. That's a reason for Spencer Outler to be back out there. Yeah, I have no problem passing on Chris Oliva in a draft. There's so much risk. It's a very easy, clear path to see how it goes wrong. But at the same time, when he is on the field, he's not a boom guy, but he's very consistent. I believe he's an A and our consistency metric because he's the first target. He's going to have a great target share. of an NFL offense, whoever the quarterback is. When he's healthy, he will be someone that should be started every week because he's going to give you 10.5, 11.5 points. It is helpful for him that our consistency throws out the injuries. Yes, obviously. Because I'm sure that that 17-game span is about a four-year span. That's how it feels. And, you know, he has been very good, but he's had a lot better quarterback play. So I'm very, very hesitant. It's gone the wrong direction. Fantasy points for game last year was at 7 when he did play. And that was with,

better quarterback performances. I mean, it's disappointing. And maybe he's the Terry McLaurin DJ more of his stage of his career where he's just a really good player in a really bad situation. But I got to, I got to bring this to the attention of the foot clan. I had no idea. Brooks is, Brooks hates chrysalov. Is that, is that the truth? That's what I'm learning here today. How are you learning this? The kindest, sweetest, most gentle. uh loving man people love the people love brooks of course he's just he never is in slack he's just in slack right now hammering chrys hammering chrys he just threw another one out there he says he likes players who can get 20 fantasy points because chrisel love i love it never done it in 39 games that says something you know who has Rashid Shaheed tell you that oh man all right man

Go get him, Brooks. Yeah, bury him under the ice. The most fire I've ever seen out of Brooks is anti Chris Oliva. That's someone who's had Chris Olivae before. That's probably true. Yeah, let's move it on. I'm jumping in. All right, Mike. I got a running back. He plays for the New England Patriots. There's two of them that we need to talk about. Which one am I going to go? This will be a clue. Fire. It ain't Ramandre Stevenson, that bum? We're talking about Trayvion Henderson, the absolute electric Trevion Henderson. This guy, second round pick, you know, absolutely dominated at Ohio State. He went 38th overall to this situation. Look, we hoped for the Chicago Bears, but we did not get there. 38th overall was a disappointment to everybody. It was just based off of, we thought we could get him in the top 32, but.

would put him in the first round 38 overall though is still a really high pick for a running back he have he could have come out two years ago in 2024 and he would have been the first running back selected easily uh unfortunately for us for that year you know nil has changed some things because our our boy henderson was getting that chapotle money i don't know if you guys know that look if i'm if i'm in college and i'm getting paid by Okay, maybe I'm going to stay in, but look, explosive plays of 10 or more yards, 24%. That's number one in this class. He, the, we talked about, you know, that steady drumbeat that you want to hear out of training camp. And it has been steady and it has been getting really loud lately, especially highlighting how good he is in the receiving game. And that is a thing that can keep the rookie off the field is.

They're working the passing game. Maybe they're not the best pass catcher. Maybe they're not the best pass blocker. Henderson is tremendous at both of those things. And ball security, I mean, him versus remandre, it is night and day. Last year, remandre, 3.87 yards per carry. Fumbled seven times the most by any non-quarterback. We're already getting reports of more fumbling issues from Ramondre coming out of camp. Look, I think that he, takes over sooner than later. And it's a rookie running back who was drafted in the second round of the NFL draft. That's a good bet for fantasy football. Since 2011, we looked at the first six rounds of redraft. We got 32 rookie running backs and not counting the guys who got injured quickly into the season. But look, 60% of them exceed their ADP expectation, meaning they outplay what you're drafting them to give you.

And then if you look at those rookie running backs who saw two and a half or more targets per game, 80% hit rate on passing their ADP expectation and look two and a half targets for Trayvion Henderson, that should be absolutely no problem. We looked at Josh McDaniels as a play caller. This guy just running back target percentage is always way up there. And I know that he played with the goat, Tom Brady, who was more of a statue guy, loved to check it down to his running back. But even years without Tom Brady, you know, near 30% target percentage going to the running back, 21, 20%, and we're looking at only full seasons of McDaniels as a play caller. The story with Trayvon Henderson that I think is interesting. And I don't know if you saw this, Mike, but there was a couple of the reporters covering the Patriots beat in camp, and they're talking about the utilization of players. One thing that stood out was that Trayvion and Henderson, they said, had significantly more downfield catches in camp.

than Stefan Diggs. They said from a utilization standpoint in the offense. It makes sense because Henderson actually has juice and burst. Like athletically, we can often overemphasize athleticism when it comes to the running back position. You know, like those are traits that you really have to have for the tight end. And running backs can be not as athletic, but his is just, it's off the chart. A 95th percentile for his explosive score because that's his vertical and bra jump. That's the. That's the initial get off the line. And you go back to his film in Ohio. He can go downfield and make spectacular catches. I think it's an easier argument for me to get on board with him as a fire pick when you focus on the receiving work and the receiving game in general. Because, you know, the most recent depth chart reports from New England, you know, Mike Rabel, he's going to be the veteran first guy. He's going to, he's got.

You know, Romandre is going to get his work. Remandre's lost some weight. I think he was down 10 pounds. And then Antonio Gibson was even getting work ahead of Trayvon Henderson out of the backfield. Yeah, I get that. That will take more time to do the to do the depth chart jump, I think, with Mike Vrable and with the team. And there's also been some talk of the offensive line really struggling. Even though we know they invested at four overall and made the offensive line a priority, it's been struggling so far in camp. But you start talking about the versatility factor. You start talking about, look, when you break down the wide receiver room, like, you know, Demaria Douglas probably making the most strides in camp. Spondiggs, older. The other guys are not hyper-reliable players. So you look at Trayvion and Henderson as a weapon in that regard. It gets me more excited when I see that he's getting downfield targets because he's the guy in space that could do a lot with it. Yes, he can. And this is.

You know, the Patriots when we did our divisional breakdowns, their projected win total was pretty shocking. What was, were we eight and a half? Does anyone, Kyle, do you remember that one off the top of your head? Yeah, I believe it. Yeah, it was eight and a half. Eight and a half. Like this is, you know, the, the bookies are saying this is going to be a solid team. Maybe that's not a playoff team, but that's a good amount of wins. That's going to be points on the board. I still don't get it. I don't get it. I wonder, I guess if New England was sitting in the NFC North, I don't think they're at eight and a half. No, for sure. This is as much a schedule blessing for them as anything else. Yeah, I do think, I think that the dolphins may be bad. Sure. I think that could be, that could be a team that they pass in the division for sure. But Henderson is just, I know, yes, look, Vrable, veteran first, that stuff.

will happen right now, but it's a fantasy football. Like Wenderson is he going to take over. That's what we want to know. And it's, look, and he's not expensive in drafts. What? I missed it. He switched his own joke, but I didn't hear it. I plowed over it. Wait, well, hold on. I want to hear it. No, no, no, no. No, you can check the tape later. It's bad. Like, you know, the excitement for Omerian Hampton, he's going to, Hampton's going to jump into like, third round high probably even late second round of the excitement for him henderson's chilling right now is rb 24 he will be better than the rb 24 he will take over this job and i think he will be if not the one at least the one a sooner than what round is he going the sixth round sixth round yeah that isn't that is an easy selection for me

All right. Jason, your turn to select either an ice or a fire player. Well, I'm not going to tell you what it is yet. I'm going to talk about Sam Laporta, a young, tight end on a great offense. Former tight end one. Who has been the tight end one going into year three. So obviously great player, great team, great offense. Great pick. Ice. No. No. Terrible pick. No. No. No. Sam Laporta is a good player. He is on a good offense, and he will be fine in fantasy. In fact, I am the highest ranked of the three of us on Sam Laporta. He's my Titan 5. I project him to finish as the Titan 5. That is a terrible pick where he's going. This is about opportunity cost. We talked about him a lot yesterday when I found out you were doing this. Yeah, this is the issue here is one of fantasy football game strategy.

This isn't really a take on Sam Laporta. Yeah, it emotionally bothers me that he's in ice for you. Sure. Yeah. Because of my respect for the player. And I get it. So if you want to just say my ice pick is fifth round tight ends. Because if Sam Laporta were to slip to the seventh in your league, dude, I will take him. This is about what you're giving up and what you're getting to give. up something good. So in the fifth round. Got a little loss on that. Yeah, don't worry about it. You got lost. Get no. I was right there. Here's a thing. Right now, Sam Laporte is going in the fifth round. The players that you are not taking at running back and wide receiver. Trayvion Henderson. Sure. You're taking him ahead of Trayvon Henderson. You're taking him ahead of Joe Mixon and James Connor.

These are important fantasy. I mean, James Connor is, you know, was a top 10 running back over Chuba Hubbard, who was very good. The D.K. Metcalf, Cortland Sutton, Devante Smith. These are players we know are good and will be important on fantasy rosters. Later in the ninth round, there are tight ends that are not that different than Sam Laporta. Do I have Sam Laporta ranked ahead of most of the, ahead of Evan Ingram? Yeah. ahead of David Najoku. I can't remember if he's ahead or not. But there are tight ends going, you know, you could take shots on Loveland and Tyler Warren later. Go look at the value scout tool that I just posted in there because we just released this. It has our true value based on our rankings. Oh, how funny. And I guess this is true. There is no player that we have a bigger differential in what we view is their true value in the draft and where their average draft position is.

than Sam Laporta. We have a differential of 38 picks for Sam Laporta. It feels bad because Sam Laporta is good. This isn't an anti-Sam Laporta take. This is a fantasy scoring take. Or fantasy reality situation. The difference in points between Sam Laporta and David Najoku is not that much. In fact, last year, David Najoku outscored Sam Laporta. Two years ago when Laporta was the number one tight end, he's, you know, you can't do better. He was 11 and a half fantasy points. Like David Ojoku last year was 10.6. The gap isn't that big. Think about what the gap is between guys going where you're taking the Joku, Travis E.TN or James Connor. Like one of those is a player no one wants and one is going to be an important every star. You're saying the exchange for Loporta right now would be James Connor.

Exactly. But the exchange for in the eighth round is an ETN, which is either kind of indifferent about it. Here's the players I'm giving up. I'm giving up Najee Harris or Travis E.TN. I'm giving up Cooper Cop. I'm giving up guys. Just do the trade. Do the pretend trade. Would you rather have David Najoku and James Connor and James Connor or Sam Laporta and Travis ETA? Yeah, that's a no-brainer. It's, it's. This is where, and honestly, Hawkinson should be kind of in the same, when they drop a couple more rounds and you have the tear breaks at running back and wide receiver where you're starting to go to like, I don't know, there's a lot of red, yellow flags. I don't really love these wide receivers and running backs. Scoop up the good tight ends that you know are good. I know Sam LaPorte is going to be good, but I also know that good at tight end does, it's not a difference maker. It's not winning you championships. And in fact,

A lot of times you make more points. You score more points. You make them in the laboratory. You score more points by streaming against good tight-in matchups and playing guys off of waivers than just week and week out. Than being locked into Leporta. Yeah, exactly. Every single way. No, it's a very, it's difficult to accept. I promise all the listeners will only hear that you hate him. Oh, for sure. For sure. And this stat, I think, is where it's really important. Jay, you were talking about just fifth round tight-ins. 39 tight ends drafted from rounds 5 through 7 over the last decade. And what they're expected to score, you know, ADP expectation, we're talking to 87% whiff rate on those picks. They're usually, middle round tight ends are just not. It's like, yeah, one every once in a while is going to sneak through and be an awesome pick. It keeps setting the trap for us. Like,

The bear trap just gets opened every single year because one of them goes through. And then we, our leg gets stuck and now we have these tight ends who are not helping us. Are the bear traps just out of curiosity? Are they just sit there with like no bait? Or is there like an apple in there or something? No, I think there's no bait. I think it's covered. It's covered with like leaves? Yeah. Okay. You don't want to. I was just trying to think of the analogy. You're not wanting to get the head. This isn't a rat trap. Like, hey, come eat this apple. Yeah, no, you don't want the bear's head. Well, I think you would, but I don't know that that's the easiest thing to do. There's four legs, much easier to get a leg. What are we doing with the bear traps? Is that a thing still? They exist. Do we go for the bears? I don't think we set them. Okay. Like, we don't set them as Americans? Yeah, correct. Okay. Not just the three of us. I'm very confident. The three of us don't. No longer set bear traps. Plenty of bear traps, though, in fantasy.

Yes, in the fifth to seventh round at the tight end position. All right, we are going to take a quick break and come back. We each have another player to talk about on this edition of Ice and Fire. This is an ad by BetterHelp. These days, it feels like there's advice for everything. We talk about this all the time. You look at the reels and all the social media. You've got the cold plunges, gratitude journals, screen detoxes. But the problem is, is you don't know what actually works. And the internet is full of information overload about mental health, about wellness. And it's hard to know what will actually make a difference, what's true. And so...

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Well, we know the Foot Clan is wise. They are sharp. And if those things are true, then they probably know by process of elimination that all I have left is a fire pick, which is going to surprise some people. This is an individual show with our own individual takes. Interesting. I didn't know that that was going to be the position that you took on my fire pick, Jackson, Smith, and Jigba. Fire. This has not been a place. This has not been where I've been about Jason in years past. And I have really turned a corner this offseason on my expectations and excitement for a player that looking on Sleeper, he's a third round pick, but on ESPN, you know, this is what the platform, the value tool and our ADP platform comparison tool do. Like on ESPN, he's a fourth round pick. He's a late third on Yahoo right now.

late third on underdog. I am the highest of our team here now, where I have them inside the top 10 at the position. But the transition has really happened in part because of what I believe about JSN's talent, you know, coming into the league, it was very, very slow going. Even last year, halfway through, it was slow going. And then you started to see a utilization for JSN that was much more significant down the field. Part of the question marks that you've brought up, Mike, you know, who, Is he playing the slot? Is Cooper Cup playing the slot? Both of these guys, look, from what I see on film, JSN is very, very capable of being an excellent outside wide receiver. And I think they're going to give him that opportunity, which means more downfield targets. We have not traditionally looked at slot wide receivers with the same fantasy upside that we look at outside wide receivers. But you're talking about a 23-year-old player. I mean, he's one of six in the history of the NFL with 100-catch season before turning 23.

This is a young, talented player, and I don't want to fall into the same trap that we did last year with Sam Darnold and an off-season narrative that this guy couldn't support an elite wide receiver option. I mean, Jason just talked about Cooper Cup. He's going in the eighth, ninth round of drafts. You've got off-season talk. Maybe, you know, Tori Horton's going to be a valuable player on this roster. We all know this story. You talk about target market share. You talk about total volume in the offense. And you talk about talent and JSN meets all of those markers. Like you look at players that could be eligible to move up into the upper echelon at the position. And I am on board with JISN this year. I think he's going to move around the formation a lot. We've already got, I mean, we haven't talked about it. We should have. I don't know why I've let it been bury, but Kenneth Walker's hurt again. I mean, Kenneth Walker is resting.

he is resting his bones and and his tendons and his were you going to say is Jason I would you going to say it's me I would never he will be so rested and recovered for week one three practices missed already just a little tuckered out at least the average 3.7 of carry last year He's resting. Yeah, he rested on the field. That's the problem. I know. That's why he's going to be so ready. He is so rested for year four. He is taking those first three years and rested. Yeah, I mean, this is the number one target by a wide margin. He absolutely dominated it over the second half of the year last year. You saw it. And I don't think that we should take the ambiguity of a quarterback change.

and not recognize, look, no more Tyler Lockett, no more D.K. McCaff, right? Like, no more Noah fan. Yeah, maybe Oroyo is going to be relevant in this offense, but the target totals for JSN are going to be out of control. And I don't think we were very generous to the Seattle offense when we did our divisional breakdown. I stand by it. Yeah, and that's fine. That's fine. But, I mean, this is a player that I think could, like, when we saw, when you're looking for that breakout, and the career years you got out of like when cd lamb was the number one overall wide receiver this was he was jason's age when jefferson did it he was jason's age it when when jamaur chase did it like this is the prime time for the elite season for json and i i just think maybe we're undervaluing that in terms of can he finish a top three four player i actually think he can i actually think jason could do that uh

Yeah, I mean, it would take Sam Darnold to have truly leveled up and not just been a product of the Vikings, you know, system and weapons last year. Obviously, Sam Donald does. He needs his Baker era. If Sam Darnold does this year, what he did last year, he could support JSN to be a top five guy. I've got JSN as a top 15 wide receiver. I like a lot of what you're saying. I think he is talented. But I do have more hesitations on the office. I think they want to run the ball. I know it would be tough to persuade both of you guys. I mean, I'm not out on him. Just remember. Remember this moment. And I'm with Jason. I'm not out, but I have him at wide receiver 15 right now. He's going as wide receiver 12. So that just that says to me, I will have no shares of JSN because I'm not willing to go slightly early. And he's not going to make it late enough where.

I'm okay with taking on the risk. The variables to me are a ton of not, I mean, Sam Darnold at the tippy, tippy top, Sam Darnold with a bad offensive line with a scheme that they want to be really run heavy. And then the Cooper Cup, JSN, how is that going to work out? It's not that it can't. It's just the, though that's enough to make me just go to a different player. Yeah, the, the, the, kind of parallel you'd want to look at for hopes and dreams for JSN is Amun Ra as a as a rookie 77% of the time in the slot 21% of the time out wide that moved to 6040 then it moved to basically 5547 and last year was like 50 50 for Amara inside outside all over the place go to target

And everything at camp, like the amount of targets that Jason is going to get this year, that's what convinces me of this pick. So it's going to be a very interesting one. I was not on board early in the off season. I've come full circle. To follow up on like if a player is a full-time slot player, that's when things are difficult. It's a, like the slot can be very advantageous. If you have a good offensive coordinator, that's when you're moving guys around and getting the mismatch. But that's, so it's like. When they go to two wide, you're on the outside. And then when they go to three, sometimes you're on the outside. Sometimes you're in the slot. Like that is okay. That actually gives you the magical fantasy years. Like the Julio Jones, when he's popping off back in the day, it was because he was moving all over the field and all over the formation. So if they're doing that with JSN, that would really, really help the baseline. Yep. All right. I'll leave it there. I do think he is, you know, you try to identify players that could finish.