Starts of the Week + Week 15 Breakdown, Notoriety of Toughness

Since the week 7 by Carolina has allowed an incredible 34.3 fantasy points per game to running backs. They are an awesome matchup for your fantasy players. If you have Chris Carson, congratulations. If you're looking at Chris Carson on the other side of your matchup, be afraid. Be scared. Be very afraid. 60% of all touchdowns scored against Carolina have been on the ground.

Russell Wilson, Kyle Allen, Mike is spamming our Slack channels. How dare you? I'm informing. Our Slack channels? I'm informing everybody. Yes, but when you accompany all of your consistency charts about Russell Wilson with a giant picture of Russell Wilson's face. Always a smug, smarmy, you know, the photo capture just right.

That's on Russell for taking so many of those photos. Yeah. Yeah. So there you go. You have Russell Wilson against the Carolina defense that, you know, what can you expect from Russell Wilson in this game? If the recipe to beat Carolina is on the ground, you know, Russell's always got the chance to be hyper efficient and throw four touchdowns. Yeah. I mean, when you're down near the goal on, you can't count them out. But I think the point is since week seven, which is, I mean, that's half the year.

Russell Wilson is the quarterback 15, only one time, only one time finishing as a top 12 quarterback during that span. And the reason his average is still that high is he went absolutely hamburglers against Tampa Bay. But other than that, if that performance was just average, he would.

He would be like borderline dropable right now. Yeah, I mean, here's his fantasy fantasy. But he's still Russell Wilson. Since week seven. Quarterback 18, 17, one. Yeah, where he crushed. 14, 19, 16, 27. That's, I mean, certainly not getting it done. No, I was looking at all of the quarterbacks on those consistency charts this year and kind of asking myself the question, you know, which players would I have actually wanted over Russell Wilson? Because he hasn't really destroyed you.

You know, there's been a handful of quarterbacks that have given you like the, like when Deshaun Watson put out his pure dud week and beat you up in a week. But it hasn't been what you hoped for. Now there's a lot of rumor and talk about Tyler Lockett being 100% this week. So we can get into that. That'll have a big effect. I mean, a healthy Tyler Lockett. We've seen it with Matt Ryan and his weapons, right? Your ceiling goes away if you can't escape the pocket and throw it downfield to Tyler Lockett the way that.

he's been able to do. Lockett's supposed to be healthy. DK Metcalf is having a nice rookie season. Who do you prefer between those two this matchup? Between Lockett and Metcalf? I'll let Jason start it. I'm still on the Lockett side. The last few games obviously have been more in the favor of Metcalfe, but if Lockett is healthy, we have a much larger sample size of Lockett. I mean, you want to go away from Lockett based on what he's done, but.

The reality is Lockett's still a very talented wide receiver for a very talented quarterback that can always have a touchout. Both these guys to me are identical. They're guys I don't really want to play, including Metcalf, Lockett. I just think that this game is going to be eaten up on the ground and there's going to be a very small pie that you have to split up. So I don't really want any of them. And I think both are just as good at plays because either one.

could have 65 yards on a touchdown very easily in this matchup, but either one could have two for 22. Yeah, I agree. You're hoping for touchdown, which that's not. I think you'll probably get one. I mean, one of these two guys are scoring in this game. Maybe. Russ throws a touchdown. I'm not saying Russell doesn't throw a touchdown, but I think one of these. Like Hollister could catch a touchdown. Yeah, I think one of these two get in. So where do you land on Metcalf versus Lock? They're both flex-worthy players. Yeah.

Yeah, I like Lockett a little bit more. I believe that he is going to be more involved than back in the offense. But that's kind of just the point of this conversation. You said they're flex-worthy. Tyler Lockett is not usually a player you associate with your flex position. Yeah. Low-end wide receiver 2 this week, high in 3. On the other side, DJ Moore. Oh, yeah, he's playing. He's played himself into a weekly, every week must-start guy. What about Curtis Samuel? He has to get a touchdown.

And you can do it against the Seattle secondary, 18th against fantasy wide receivers. But he's like that fringe wide receiver three, four for me. The reason we like Ian Thomas or the tight end in this matchup, if Greg Olson is active, I would certainly start Greg Olson. If he's gone, I would start Ian Thomas. Seahawks are terrible against tight in.

this season in every metric you look at. If you just look at total points given up, if you compare them as to who they've played and the, you know, the strength of the tight ends that they've actually gone against, it's just a great matchup. And Ian Thomas got plenty of targets last week. Do you worry about split snaps between the two if Olson returns? Not really. If Olson returns was a concussion, I think he would be back. He's going to be back to 100% of snaps. They're not going to.

I mean, Greg Olson isn't one of those guys that's ever split snaps with anyone. And then Hollister, are you willing to roll him out there? Yes. It's not a great matchup, but he's one of those barfey tight ends that has a higher upside than most tight ends at a touchdown. All right, the Bears at 7 and 6 take on the Packers at 10 and 3, the games in Lambo. Packers are five-point favorites. It's a 41 point over under.

And this is a rematch from week one where Green Bay won a barn burner 10 to 3. First game of the NFL season had some of the rust around it. But Mitch Trubisky, Aaron Rogers, battle in Lambo this week. Aaron Rogers, it's been talked about a lot. The plan. We are not fans of starting Aaron Rogers. There are a lot better options out there with more upside than Aaron Rogers at home against the Bears. Correct? Yeah.

Correct. I mean, we brought up Tana Hills name a million times. What a world we live in. But, you know, he's better. There's a lot of players. What if I tell you that in the last five home games against Chicago, Rogers has averaged three point four touchdowns per game. I would say the last five home games against Chicago have come over probably the last five years. And over the last five years, Aaron Rogers has been really good quarterback. Yep. But not this time. It never happened. Yeah, I mean.

It's dangerous, right? I mean, if you're telling me, Aaron Rogers cannot get three passing touchdowns at home in Lambo against Chicago, you're wrong. He can't. He is, you know, first ballot hall of famer for a reason, but he has more often than not, very similar to Russell, been very bad in fantasy. He either has a big blowup matchup, which so far this season has only come against two times, bottom feeding defenses that is easy to throw on.

and he hasn't performed against good defenses. And while you can run on Chicago, enter Aaron Jones, you cannot pass very easily against the Bears. They're still a top five defense against quarterbacks. 14.6 fantasy points per game is what they're average. And that sounds about like what they'll give up this week. Yeah, I agree. I think this game is kind of disappointing for fantasy players in general. It's going to be 11 degrees out. It's a 41 point over under.

It's going to be a dogfight between a couple of defenses. What did you say? This is 11 degrees? Yeah. Yes. You ever heard of that? That's the worst. Eleven's really bad. Anything under 20. And genuinely, for fantasy purposes. 20.

20 is your line? 20 is the line that has an effect on fantasy. 20 is when he takes the fliplops off and puts on his socks. Yeah, I was like, ah, it's a little chilling out. No, I'm saying for fantasy football purposes, okay. 20 degrees is really the, when it goes under 20 degrees, there's usually a lot less total offensive production, especially in the passing game. So that's another, I didn't realize it was that cold.

you know, another feather in the cap of Void Rogers. But the thing is. Oh, I thought you were going back to the dome narrative. Oh, sure. I mean, I got flak. I said that. And then a bunch of Packers fans were like, if they built a dome, I wouldn't even go. Yes, you would, liar. But you'd be comfortable. I would move on to a different team if they built me a dome. No, no, no, no. We've talked about this before on the Spitballers podcast. The joke about, like, people who like,

to eat food that's, like, way too hot. Yeah. And you like the pain. That's 100% the same thing with the, like, football games in Lambeau Field. If you don't have, there's, there's a morbid pleasure from your pain that comes from eating super hot food. You like the notoriety of toughness. Yes. Yes. You see, oh, that's the, shirtless in the snow. But that's the name of the book for the hot wing eater. Yes. Notoriety of toughness.

And the thing is. My hot wing story and how I burn my tongue is you can still enjoy things without notoriety. Just try it. Have you ever looked at someone shirtless? And I'm sorry, Greenback. Okay. Is that the end of the sentence? No, but I wanted to apologize because we're crushing them right now. But have you ever looked at one of the dudes shirtless at Lambo when it's the snow is coming down and dot what? Well, that's.

That's a tough feller right there. Is that ever been the thought? No. I've always thought that guy's drunk. That guy is an idiot. Yeah. It's the same guy that drives by with the truck that is so loud you can hear from like three miles away. Oh, that's so cool. Sorry, Green Bay. I love Green Bay. I'm just going to say that. I've been to Lambo. It's awesome. Al Borland.

He's a Packer fan through and through. How tough are you, Al? Would you go to the Lambo in the snow? I have, yeah. But shirtless? No. Okay. Did you have hand warmer? Let me ask you genuinely. All the jokes aside, genuinely. And I know usually I got to say that like three times before you still assume there's not a joke coming. There's not. When you went to Lambo in the snow, did that make it a better experience? Did that heighten it for you genuinely? Like it was like,

I'm so, like, did it increase the experience for you? Yes. Okay. See that, I could see that happening. Did you win that game? No, we lost to the Arizona Cardinals. Oh, that's embarrassing. Oh, yes. In your face, Borland. Thank you, Jason. What were we talking about? Anyways. David Montgomery, Aaron Jones. Expectations for the running backs in this matcha.

David Montgomery is not someone that I would love to start. This is a plus matchup, the Packer. This is really an incredibly even matchup across the board. The Packers and the Bears, you can run on both. You cannot pass easily on either. So it's kind of one of those. But so you take talent. Talent is where you go, which is where I don't think David Montgomery is that talent. Yeah, I'd be trying to avoid David Montgomery. 33, 44, 42.

1442. That's the last five weeks. Exactly. And I do think Aaron Jones is talented. So I'm taking Aaron Jones here at home favored cold weather game. I like it. I like that the targets have returned. 13 total targets for Aaron Jones in the past two weeks. If you look at the last seven weeks, Aaron Jones, all three of his terrible games all on the road. When he came home, his last three home games, he finished as the running back two, three, and eight.

Nice. Now, what about... Does you like it with 11 degrees out? I think so. What about Devante Adams? Yeah. You're talking superstar cannot bench. You just have to play him. You have to play him. And I think he's going to have a bad game. You do. I think it'll be fine. With this kind of a weather and with this level of a matchup. This kind of a weather. This kind of a weather. The weather outside is weather. You know, I just...

I worry. He's had plenty of bad games this year, you know? Yeah. Oh, yeah. And this looks like one that could just be one of those. You're going to put them on your bench, though? Nope. Alan Robinson. You're going to put them on your bench? Nope. Okay. Targets have been there. Jimmy Graham, you're going to put them on your bench? No. Yeah, I would never sign it. Because he's on the waiver wire. That is correct. Patriots at 10 and 3 taking on the now victorious Cincinnati Bengals. This game's in Cincinnati, the Patriots are 10-point favorites.

It's been rough sledding for the Patriots offense of late outside of arguably the most consistent wide receiver in all of fantasy football, Julian Edelman. Second most targets in the NFL and never lets you down, ever. Like he just goes out and does his thing. But Tom Brady lets you down from time to time. His completion percentage over the last four weeks, 46, 51, 52. Uh-oh.