The Overreaction Episode with Special Guest Kurt Warner! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 5/9

Don't go to my rankings on June 1st and expect to see Justin Herbert in the top five. It's about range of outcomes. It's about the upside of a player and not discounting them at a value in the draft when they could have a better than expected year. Also, Ladd-McConkie is so good. Can I ask you a quick question? Yes. Do you have anything for me? I have been given a, it's a very quick turnaround time. They're trying to make. They're trying to make. The producers are trying to make up for today. I have a very formal, if you want to throw it onto my camera here. We have a, we have a golden ticket, one free Andy Holloway agreement. Oh, right.

This is, I mean, I got one for you. You don't have like a whole sheet of them. No, but I've got a photocopy machine. So. Okay. Yeah, maybe. No, I got one. Just save it. Yeah, I'll save it for the right moment. And it will be used this season. Okay. I won't forget. I'm going to have to figure out which of your bad arguments you want me to agree with. Well, let's start with this bad argument. I'm going to say let's not overreact to incoming rookies impacting established veterans. More specifically, there are elite running backs that come in, and then there are good running backs that come in. This is a draft class that was, you know, it was talked about that it was a really, really bad running back draft class. First of all, it was bad because there weren't really the elites of the elites. And there's not. There is not a Bijon Robinson. There is not a Breeze Hall. There is not a Jonathan Taylor. There is not a Saquan Barkley. However.

Jonathan Brooks did go as the first running back off the board to a situation that wants to utilize his multi-purpose skill sets. He was. Him and Trey Benson were at least the two best of this season in my view. They were the first two drafted in the NFL's view as well. So I take Jonathan Brooks out of this. We've seen recently where... The second round, when you're the first or the second running back taken and you're high in the second round, I mean, that is Jonathan Taylor. That is Breece Hall. Those guys were great. We love them pre-draft, but running back position is mattering less and less. And so they drop in the draft. So I see Jonathan Brooks as a really good asset and fantasy and dynasty and all that. Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard are not incumbents that you should be like, well, they were so good that their job is secured. I'm talking about guys like last season.

Travis ETN. Travis ETN's a very good running back, but they spent a day two pick round three on Tank Dell or Tank on Tank Bigsby. Still an absolute world class running back name, but not a world class running back performance. The world class running back performance was Travis Etyns when he finished as the running back three on the year despite a day two running back. We were also worried about. Charbonnet. I mean, I was very worried. I loved Charbonnet's film. And then a day two pick on Kenneth Charbonnet. So Kenneth Walker, who you say Kenneth Charbonnet? I sure did. I sure did. You're having a little. I was on my way to Kenneth Walker. Yeah. So I did that. I apologize, Zach. Yeah. But Ken Bone Walker the third. He was very good last year.

He missed a couple games. He was still an RB2, looked good on the field, was clearly ahead of Charbonnet. Charbonnet didn't come in here and overtake that role. You've got Alvin Kamara, who another day two running back, Kendra Miller, who is very good. We've been talking about him as a great sleeper pick this year, a great dynasty by low right now. But Camara was fantastic. He was the running back six from week four on once he got back from his suspension. This year, we have the exact same thing happening. the day two running backs who are good. I'm not saying they're not. I actually think Tank Biggsby was good. TBD, that looks like an early L. Kendrae Miller is good, and he just missed most of his rookie season. Blake Corum, Andy, you like Blake Corum. Very much. He gets day two draft capital, which is good, round three. And so I think there's a lot of people that are like, Kyron is...

Not off the board, but he just drops tremendously. They see this as a timeshare. Blake Quorum had 27 rushing touchdowns. It was a day two running back. He's going to come in here and split time with Kyron Williams. Kyron Williams made this offense work. Kyron Williams was excellent. This is a system that has always employed a primary back, pretty much a one-back system. No team outside of the... you know, Christian McCaffrey's, whatever team he's on, is a true one-back system. The closest thing we've ever seen to that in recent memory was actually Kyron Williams last year. And I don't think they want to make him a 95% of snap player. But if he's 70%, that's outrageously high. And I'm not worried about Kyron Williams this year with Blake Quorum. Same with Josh Jacobs. They drafted Marshaun Lloyd a good back in day two.

But Josh Jacobs has the money. He is the veteran. He's going to get the job. James Connor. I love Trey Benson. That's my running back one. James Connor has the job. Trey Benson isn't coming in here and going to be in a 50-50 timeshare. And, you know, even further, like round four, you had Jalen Wright and Bucky Irving, guys that some people really like the pre-draft. So you've got Rahim Moster and Devon A Chan and you're going, oh, no, is Jalen Wright going to really take things away? No, the NFL needs depth. The NFL needs backups. Running backs get hurt. This is a good draft pick. All these are good draft picks. I think all of those draft picks were good. That doesn't mean for fantasy purposes that Karen Williams, Josh Jacobs, James Connor, Rahim Moster, Devon A. Chan, and Rashad White take massive hits. In fact, I would say they don't take any hit because of the running back behind them unless they themselves start to suck.

It's a second year in a row for Rashad White doubters because last year people wanted to make Sean Tucker a thing and it was Rashad White. It's easier to write the narrative for the backup or the day two or the later pick when you don't necessarily love the starter. But I think what people don't understand and we saw it, Jamir Gibbs was the top. He was picked 10. 12. 12, 10, 12, whatever, top 15 pick. It took him time to get onto the football field behind David Montgomery and was a disappointment for fantasy managers early on. And his talent took time to, you know, there's more to running the football than running the football. Does that make sense? Yeah. Or to being running back than running the football. Pass blocking, rapport with the offense, knowing what the teams are doing. Like these things, you don't just hand that to Marshaun Lloyd on day one. So.

You hand it to Marshawn Lloyd in week 7 or 8 when Josh Jacobs is running for 3.5 of care. Yeah. Yeah. Well, and you hand it to Blake Corum if Kyron Williams is a later round draft pick doesn't look like your future because he flames out or something. But I just don't want to overreact. I don't want to be off of these incumbents because there's another running back on the team. There's always another running back. As you say, people need to make peace with the fact that the debt chart at running back if you're not CMC is messy. It just is everywhere. It's messy in Miami with multiple players that you love. Yeah, for sure. And it happens every year, and there's been multiple years of Seattle drafting a running back. And what was it, Rashad Penny when Chris Carson was there. So do you generally speaking agree with this? We should not overreact to these running backs on day two drafted? Overreact. I generally agree. Okay, I could put the golden ticket away. Oh, boy. This thing's getting spent quick if you're bringing it up right there.

All right, we got one more each. This one, it came out of my projections. Brain, oh, okay. Yeah, brain as well. But after doing player projections in preparation for the UDK. This one, you would need a golden ticket to give me. Yeah, well, I look, stay water, my friend. We do not like take lock. I have never been a DJ Moore truther. But last year, DJ Moore was. Unbelievable, the wide receiver six. The overreaction that I fear is that he is going to suffer this season in a tremendous way at the hands of Keenan Allen, Roma Dunesay, and Caleb Williams. DJ Moore was a dominant wide receiver one last season. One of my biggest surprises when I got done with the season was seeing Chicago's wide receiver production. And I've got DJ Moore sitting at wide receiver 13.

So it's not wide receiver 6, but I have him well above Keenan Allen. I am well above Roma Dunesay. And I'm going to tell you why. The best talent on the roster, this is a 27-year-old wide receiver. This is somebody going a little bit later than that wide receiver 13 in bestball because the doubts are out there. The reaction is out there. We like Roma Dunesay. We know what Keenan Allen did last year, but Keenan Allen is an older player. It's not explosive plays with Keenan Allen. And that is the name of the game for DJ Moore. He is such a great fit in the past heavy approach that they have in Chicago now. More three wide receiver sets where he was incredible. He was seventh and wide receivers in fantasy points per route run and three wide receiver sets. That's the same as AJ Brown. The headline at the top of the stats here is that DJ Moore is an elite wide receiver one. That's the headline.

and that Roma Dunesay is a rookie that's going to establish himself and make some plays, and that Keenan Allen is going to live underneath and probably not be targeted the same way he was with Justin Herbert at this stage of his career, at this stage of basically the last year of his deal. And so, you know, they're going to see a lot of three wide with Shane Waldron. And he was exceptional in that situation. And I think a player like that demands the targets. and will establish himself. He's played with a million different quarterbacks, but the consistent part of DJ Moore is you're going to have big plays. You're going to have big yards after the catch plays, and he has dominated on both of those. So look, Adunze, deep plays. He's going to make them. I think his future is very bright when Keenan Allen likely leaves after the season. But this, in my opinion, this is the...

This is one more year for DJ Moore to be the guy in Chicago. And I think it's hard for people to see that. You said you disagree with me. Yeah. But I think DJ Moore has it locked for this entire season. Yeah, I do have a hard time agreeing with this simply because last year, DJ Moore was competing against Tyler Scott as the wide receiver three. Chase Claypool. He still had Darnell Mooney, who represents the Adunze style deep threat. You know, Dunezay can work on all three levels of the field. But I mean, Darnel Mooney was the two. Now you've got Keenan Allen and you've got Roma Dunesay. So I struggle to think that the target market share will be good enough from a rookie. Obviously, if Caleb comes in and looks like C.J. Stroud last year, then you're going to have Caleb, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Adunzee all looking good. Well, we don't make arguments against Jemar Chase because he has T. Higgins and Tyler Boyd the last two years.

And that's the frame of reference I'm looking into. I'm saying that DJ Moore is a target demander. His play on the field, his separation, the big plays, he's a friend of quarterbacks. He made Justin Fields look good sometimes. That's a hard thing to do as a passer. But Keenan Allen is a target demander as well. Keenan Allen is just a different receiver in every respect, though. But my point is they can't both get past the ball. So you just can't, you're not going to have one of these guys at 30% target share. I just can't fathom that unless one of them gets injured. I just think when you bring in a quarterback that's going to fix the situation as much as Caleb Williams has the potential to. This is a Caleb Williams take. That's what this is. My target share is 22% 22.3 for DJMR. Last year it was 28%.

I have Keenan Allen's target share at 21.6% last year in All Alone Town and with the Chargers, it was 24%. I've got a Dunezay at a respectable 16.4 as a rookie. So this is about consolidation to the best. And yes, a Caleb Williams take that he can go out there and throw for 4,000 yards or around there. And that's enough to me. Because the reason Chase is fine and we don't care that he's got Teagans and has had Tyler Boyd is because Joe Burroughs, Joe Burrough. And if I knew for sure that Caleb Williams was going to come in here and C.J. Stroud rookie year one, I'd be right there with you. I really would. If I was going to put my chips on some player to be the, like, if one of these wide receivers has a really good season, it's not going to be Keenan Allen's dink and dunk on a one-year contract as the elder statement. Statesman. And it's probably not going to be Roma Dunezay coming in as rookie. It'll be DJ more because he's.

Super athletic and explosive. I think he's starting to he's inching up that plant the flag territory for me so far. I am just got pretty strong conviction. I'm still better. Like I like Caleb Williams a lot. I think he's very, very talented. And I believe he'll be a great quarterback. But I'm still betting on history that rookie year quarterbacks, you know, you're throwing 20 touchdowns. You're throwing, you know. closer to 60% completion than 68% completion. You're, you know, rookie your quarterbacks, they have their struggles. What if I told you that the super quarterback that helped DJ more the entire season threw for 2,500 yards and 16 touchdowns last time? I would revert you back to the argument of who the other options were at the time. That doesn't always happen, though. No, no, no, but 28% target share is what he had last year. Yeah. Because there was no one else. I'm just saying his quarterback threw 16 touchdowns.

So if you want to break up eight extra touchdowns, if you tell me Caleb Williams can get to 22 to 24. How many games did he play? Justin Fields? Yeah. He missed four games. Yeah. So he didn't just throw. He could have almost got to 3,020. You're right. Thank you. Yeah. All right. We disagree there. That's an overreaction. I think that will drive DJ Morris price down. And everyone but Jason can take advantage of it. So Jason, what is your second overreaction? Yeah. I will get to my second overreaction here. My second overreaction is. To not. Let me find it. Are you losing your place? I am losing my place. I thought we were going to break, so I was completely unprepared. We are going to break. We are going to break. All right. Thank you. I was just playing with you. See, we went to break. Thank you. Now, what I wanted to talk about. Have you been able to find your place? Oh, yeah. Dude, my place was after the break. Yes. So this is like clear where I come in. Don't overreact to the break that is you think is happening. Right. Where were you 10 minutes ago? It might not happen.

Yeah, tell me afterwards. I don't want to overreact. And this one, I'm not sure if you'll agree with like you agreed with my last one, but I don't want to overreact the guys who played poorly last year due to injury. I don't want to double count the injury. Players that we've done so many studies, you know, we've got Matthew Betts. He updates his study every year. He does so much work in the injury sphere. for us where we look and see people coming back from significant injuries. Usually that's ACLs. They are not as good the first year back as they are the second year back. It takes players to time to get back to full strength to the same kind of statistical metrics they were at prior to the injury. And so last year, I want to bring up some players that we saw that sucked, but that we're playing injured. And I just want to make sure we don't.

double count it. Giovante Williams. Giovante Williams was not supposed to play to start last year. It was off of our radar that he was going to actually start. We didn't believe it until all of a sudden we hear, oh, he's going to play in the preseason. It's like, no, he's not. Not with that injury. That's impossible that he would be back on that timeline. And lo and behold, he was out there in preseason. They were, they used him. They still loaded him up with 275 opportunities despite his inefficiency. But remember how catastrophic his injury was. We could not possibly have expected him to come back off of that injury on that timeline and really be good last year. Like that would be such an outlandish.

outlier type of performance. And I know like you say, oh, Brees Hall had an ACL. Yeah, that came to mind. But Brees Hall's injury was nowhere near like Javantes. We talked about this isn't hindsight. And that's what I want to like remember is that this isn't this isn't something we're only saying now after the fact. This was what we were saying before going into the season last year. We weren't scared about Brees Hall. We were terrified about Javante Williams. But Javante Williams went out and did exactly what we were terrified of. And now it's like, well, he's done. He's, you know, it's just like he sucked. There's a percentage chance that he is. Yeah, and so he was injured. He was inefficient. But you don't want to double count the injury because you still believe he's young enough to have a, to come out and year two. Absolutely. And I know you've stouted him that way. I did. More than I did. I was, I was pretty bullish because I, because the depth chart to me says he's going to get the opportunities against. Somaget P. Ryan is nothing. I don't even know if he makes his roster.

He liked, you know, Peyton likes McLaughlin. That's, that's fine. He can get his carries. He's got some juice. And they drafted Audragestime. And this time of year, it's like, oh, they drafted Audrakesdeme. But halfway through the year, we'll be like, oh, yeah, they drafted a fifth round running back that like that doesn't make an impact. For the record, that's where I'm out already. Well, you and I didn't like Audrakees to me already. And thankfully, Mike's not here, right? Yeah. He actually thought that that guy could move his legs fast. You know, I saw. Peyton actually talk about how he liked how fast, Odrick Estimate, like, quick feet. I was like, what? Well, he might know better. Did you watch him? Anyways, this isn't just a dunk on Audrake Estimate time. Other players that were coming back off of injury that might have been disappointing last year, Kyler Murray, first year back from ACL, you would not expect him to be great. He also did not have a great receiving core.

But his 17-game pace, once he was back, was 3,822 yards passing with 21 passing touchdowns, 5, 18, and 6 on the ground. He was quarterback 9 and points per game from week 10 on first year back from an ACL injury in this offense without any good weapons. And I believe during that time, Marquise Brown was like the fourth target in this office. He basically wasn't even around. So when you say, oh, you're adding Marvin Harrison, you're really not even subtracting. Hollywood from what we saw. And then the last name, again, these are, these are overreactions. These are, these are, you know, Giovante Williams, I think people are overreacting to. Kyler Murray overreacting and Kyle Pitts. I know it's a fun, crazy name to talk about every single year because it's like, well, but this year it's going to happen. We found out this is a little bit more hindsight because we questioned it during the year watching him.

Yeah, he didn't look himself. He didn't look himself. We talked about it through the season. It's like, man, this guy looks like Antonio Gates sometimes out there, especially when he's trying to make a cut. But Kyle Pitts had an MCL and PCL injury that he was struggling with. He had that and then played through it all year. And it looked bad. But if he is just now turning 24 years old, in fact, he won't turn 24 until October. So he'll start the season at 23. He led all tight ends in air yards. Always does. He gets a quarterback upgrade that can make those air yards near him, which is really, really nights. Pits ranked fourth in tight ends in slot fantasy points and slot fantasy points per target. You know, this is a better system coming in, a better quarterback. And if what we saw was a player year one from a major injury last year, then you have an opportunity that.

Maybe that's just he needs another year to recover. We see it all the time, and this is grounded in analytics, that year two back from these big injuries, the players are just better, especially when they're younger. Giovante Williams, Kyler Murray, Kyle Pitts, they are all young enough where we can kind of excuse some of what we saw last year because of the fact that they're human beings coming off of a massive injury. Give them another year, and none of them lost their opportunity. Like none of them are not going to be given the chance to be great week one. And I'm going to say, I'm not going to overreact to what we saw last year on those guys. So you're three my guys, Giovante Williams, Collar Murray, Kyle Pitts. You heard it. You heard it here. Yeah, I mean, there's a, like you said, there's a difference between buying like a stupid injury dip on a player on the backside of their career, all Alan Robinson switching teams. And you're like, oh, it's going to be good for him with a new opportunity. Then it is a younger player that didn't lose an opportunity.

that still has a lot of potential to shape his good. And I'm glad you brought up the phrase injury dip because we said before, like, don't buy the injury dip. That's usually a bad mistake. But the injury dip is when a player is injured and so he's dropping an ADP. And it's like, oh, man, I'm going to get a value on him. But you're drafting an injured dude. This is the exact opposite. This is finally drafting a healthy dude. You're buying the healthy dip. So. Giovante, I, look, you said I might not agree. I, I agree on the pits front. I agree on the Kyla front. But not on the Giovante front. But not on the Giovante front. Are you using the golden ticket already? No, I'm just flashing it around, you know, showing, showing my mad stacks over here. Yeah, that's good for the pod. YouTube.com slash the fantasy footballers. Yeah, well, okay. Well, without further ado, we do have one more conversation to be had. A big one.

and we'll talk some rookie quarterbacks. You talking to me? All right, the fantasy footballers are excited to welcome in Hall of Famer, NFL legend, local legend for us out here. Cardinal Hero in Arizona and one heck of an analyst. Kurt Warner to the show. Thank you, Kurt, for joining us. You got it. Thanks for having me on. I was good to be able to sit down with some donations and some guys in the area that understand the landscape of football here in Arizona. Good to be on. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. You know, personal thanks for January 18th, 2009. We were all at that game. Oh, yeah. But let me settle one thing here at the top. We wanted to talk about some of these rookie quarterbacks with you and get some thoughts at the position. You know, we're a fantasy football podcast. We're a fantasy football podcast. And, you know, every fantasy football player is eager to find that next great quarterback.

So we'll talk about that, but at the top, I just want to make sure we're all in a complete consensus agreement. San Antonio Holmes did not get both feet down. We agree? You know, those are things I'm never going to agree on. You know, whether he got that other toe down or not, the throw, the catch, the effort, it was just incredible. You know, that's just one of those plays that you just, you know, you got to tip your hat and go, come on. You know, Ben should have never thrown it. We have three guys in the area. Antonio should have never been close to catching it. Yet, you know, made the perfect throw, made the catch, you know, whether that toe scraped the turf or not. Yes. I don't really know, but it was one heck of an effort because we're sitting here and we can't definitively say whether he touched it or not.

which to me makes it close enough in a moment like that where you got to tip your hat and give it to him. You're a better man than me, Kirk, because I know the truth. He did not. I said I'm 10, 15 years away from accepting it, so I'm getting there. But look, like I said, this is a fantasy football show. I am curious, before we talk about some of those rookies, what's your relationship been like with the fantasy football world, whether in your playing days or as the NFL and the fantasy game has evolved? in your time since leaving the NFL? Probably love, hate, you know, in terms of fantasy. I've played, you know, numerous times, played in leagues with, you know, a family and some friends and what have you, you know, played in some bigger celebrity leagues. The only problem I have with fantasy football, because first and foremost, it's awesome for our game, and it's awesome for the fact that

You know, we get so many fans that buy in that may not be what I would call a diehard fan. You know, watch no matter what, have their team. But they get engaged and they become fans of our game and they become fans of our players and they've taken the game to another level because of the fun and the interaction of fantasy football. I say love, hate, because if you're more of a true football fan, the problem for me is when I watch it, And I'm cheering for my fantasy team as opposed to watching it the way that I would normally watch it and watch it as a purist and enjoy the moments and enjoy the performances of different guys. Now it becomes, oh, gosh, my guy's on the other team or, oh, he's playing against. Instead of just, man, that was one heck of a run. That was an unbelievable play. What a great game that was. And you get hung up with, did I score enough points on my team?

You know, so that's where I fight the battle because I want to cheer for guys. I want to cheer for the game. I want to watch it and enjoy the moment. And I think sometimes fantasy football can take away from that aspect of things. You know, and I also think, you know, for a true fan, meaning, hey, I'm a diehard, such and such. I'm a diehard Cardinals fan. I'm a diehard Steelers fan. That can also mess up your fandom a little bit because... You know, well, I want the Cardinals to win, but I got two guys on the other team on my fantasy team. So I want them to score a touchdown. Really, I don't want them to score touchdown. And, you know, it just kind of messes with your mind. But, you know, all in all, I think it's a great thing for our game and continues to build what our game is. Just more as a pure football fan. I wrestle with it quite often. Yeah, no, that makes sense. And this show in particular,