Midseason Review + Predictions, Smelling Salts - Fantasy Football Podcast for 10/28

I don't believe that he is going to smash all rookie records of all time by the end of this season, even with him missing week one as a starter. And at some point, I think he will come back to Earth and fall on a fantasy finish forecast. So I am picking Big Herb to drop out of the top 12th. And it saddens me. Interesting. Right now, Herbert is averaging...

about 25 fantasy points a game. I was curious where Burrow was. But Burroughs had some rough weeks, which is what you're kind of talking about. Exactly. I believe Burrow is a better quarterback than Justin Herbert in real life. I don't know. I mean, the argument certainly can be made. I think they're both great. But you make a good point because my perception of Burrow because of a couple of explosion games was that he's getting it done every week. And because he's on pace for a record-breaking 4,600 yards.

You think, okay, fantasy-wise, he's been good. But before this last week against Cleveland, Burrow was 14th, 29th, 20th, 13th on the week. And I certainly don't believe Herbert will stay at 4, but I think he'll stay inside the top 12. I'm going to go with Aaron Rogers as my pick. He's sitting at 8th right now in points per game. And I think it's going to be close for Aaron Rogers. He's certainly a reliable fantasy.

starter, somebody that you can throw in there and get the five touchdown week. But the kind of DNA of this team is still Aaron Jones, the running game, the defense. Last year, Rogers wasn't in this category. So I'll have him slip out. Although, Mike, your point on Lamar, with him being at 12th right now already, and that gauntlet, I mean, Pittsburgh twice in five weeks is enough to dissuade you from a player. Like, I would.

I was going to say that the Brady week 13 buy doesn't really bother me in general, like with this trade. And that was before I looked at this schedule for Lamar Jackson. So I would trade for Brady. I'd be shopping Lamar for Brady. And that is a compelling argument to make if you are the one with Lamar. Yes, but get a package. It's the old man. I mean, just, yeah, try to get more than Brady, but you might not be able to off of a five touchdown week.

What a world. Jason's trying to keep his opinions to himself. Look, when you watch Lamar Jackson play this season, he has been flat out bad at quarterback. He is a phenomenal mobile running option. But when he throws the ball, he has missed too many good reads. I mean, he's making the right read. He's just not hitting the player.

But it is a scary proposition to give this piece of advice because will anybody be surprised if all of a sudden he comes out of the buy? They've worked those things out, good head coach, good team, and they start scorching earth on offense. And all of a sudden, Lamar Jackson. He had the knee injury, so he didn't run a little bit for a couple games. Maybe he gets that going after the buy. You're right. But surprise, no, not at all. And Lamar Jackson, like if we're saying it just finishes as a top 12 guy.

In between here and week, you know, 16, Lamar Jackson has the ability to have, he was the number one guy on the week because he ran into touchdowns and he threw for two and he spikes his points all the way up to finishing as a top 12 guy. So I'm just, he has not an absolute must sell for me. I just want to point out to people what has happened and what he's looking down coming into the future. Their defense is so good. They just don't need him to throw.

Although they might against Pittsburgh twice in that situation. Al, did you – I noticed I got Tavin Coleman. What did you pay? Yep. I paid 46. Wow. Okay. Did you have a bid on Coleman before this discussion there, Al? I did. Okay. And so Al had a bit of 36. So I don't feel too bad about that. Not bad. But I also just lost Beckham and need a start this week and hoping that's him.

All right, Drew Brees is the player, I think, could sneak into that fancy points per game. Great offense. Michael Thomas coming back. So that's my call there. Jason, who do you think can get into that top 12 and points per game at the quarterback position? At the quarter, it's Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan has been unbelievably good in all the games that he's had, Julio Jones. He missed Julio Jones for a couple games. So if Julio's there for the rest of the season, I think Matt Ryan will be a great start rest of season.

Yeah, I'm with Jason, Matt Ryan. Okay. All right. Running backs, top 12 right now and fantasy points per game with minimum five games played and half PPR. Alvin Cameras, number one, Dalvin Cooks at two, Aaron Jones at three, Derek Henry at four. First surprise here, number five. James Robinson, ahead of Ezekiel Elliott at six. Chris Carson at seven, Kareem Hunt at eight, Gurley's at nine, Miles Sanders at 10, Joe Mixen at 11, Josh Jacobs,

at 12. And those first three names, Camara, Cook, Jones, in games that they've played, no duds whatsoever. You did have one dud game for Derek Henry, but he's been outstanding since then. Week 1 and 2, kind of a slow start, but he's been great. James Robinson, a couple mediocre games, but, I mean, you're probably flexing James Robinson. So let's have that same question, though, inside the top 12 that you think will be out by season's end.

So when I looked at this, I just, you know, the reality is there's going to be a couple of these guys who are out by season end, and it's going to be because of injury, right? Not just because they're not good enough or their offense changes or their defense changes. And my big concern with here is Miles Sanders. Hey, day to day sounds great. Maybe he will be back this week. Maybe he won't. But will he stay healthy? Will he?

continue to be on the field because so far, this is his first time where it's like, you know, coming in the off season, I was all about the hype that he was one of the rare true three downbacks. He was a true workhorse, which is an absolute must for fantasy football. I loved him. I have him in about half of my leagues. I've got Miles Sanders. And I'm thrilled when he's out there on the field. I love it. But I just worry.

whether his body can take that or not, because we didn't see him get a full 300 carry or touch workload in his rookie year and then continue on. This was the first time that they're saying, you're our guy, we're going to put the weight of the team on your shoulders, and so far he's had a couple of injuries now, so I just worry whether he could stay on the field. He's great when he's on it. Yeah, I went with Todd Gurley, the touchdown dependent.

Todd Gurley, older back, more tread on the tires. He's only sitting at nine in terms of fantasy points per game. He probably won't finish in the top 12. I don't think so. It doesn't feel like he will. But at the same time, you look at the last four weeks and he's got three top 12 finishes, number three finishes. Yeah, and his workload is actually going up. He tried real hard not to finish in the top 12 last week. He just... Yeah, I mean, Jason's point about...

Jason has never been a supporter of Brian Hill and Edo Smith. In fact, he has been the opposite. Yeah, they suck. Yeah, well, and the team kept forcing those guys on the field, and it seems like they are transitioning away from that. Yeah, I mean, going more to Gurley. Spoiler alert. He's by start of the week again this week. So Gurley could continue on this year and be great, but it does feel like because it's what Andy's saying, so much touchdown dependency.

in his fantasy points right now. If those don't come, he's not a top 12 guy. So are you with Gurley on that too, Mike? I think Gurley might hold up because of the scoring. Touchdowns are hard to predict, but I believe in Matt Ryan and I believe in the Falcons offense and their ability to score a bunch of points that's just going to turn into more Todd Gurley opportunities as much as I've been anti- Todd Gurley for fantasy this year. For me, it's...

I'm trying not, it's like I'm picking at the phrase here, the guys who are just on the bottom, but like Joe Mixen and Josh Jacobs have both shown just like they're 50% of the time, you know, that these guys are good. Joe Mixon has been trending in the right direction, but foot sprain, how long is Joe Mixing actually going to be out? He might miss this week. We don't have the information yet.

And Josh Jacobs and the Raiders, man, they're putting Richard on the field. They're putting Devante Booker on the field. So those would be the guys that I'd be looking at that won't make it into the top 12. I have an announcement to make. You do. I just, while you were talking, I went through our waivers looking, see, oh, did I get this guy? Did I get that guy? Oh, no. He's in, you stepped in my booby trap. I have.

Zach Ertz now on my roster. It doesn't feel good. I mean, I, no, no, this isn't good music. He's so good, man. Hold on, hold on. We have two IR spots. And my hope is that if Christian McAver comes off, I can just sneak Zacherts onto the IR and then add an additional. So you are rolling Zacherts on active bench. Well, I might, I might have to just, look.

What'd you pay? A dollar. I thought I wouldn't get him. Too much. No. It's fine. As if you didn't have control over whether you signed Zekerts. That's my favorite part of this. Yeah. This was a willful decision. I went against my own self. All right. Running back outside the top 12 that could end up a second half star, end up in that top 12 in points per game. Jason and I have shared.

opinions on this. Yeah, we've been waiting for this. I've talked about it from the very get-go that I think it's going to be a second half of the season outpouring for Jonathan Taylor, Thomas. He's coming off of his buy. We're going to start entering the games that you have to win to get into the playoffs where they can't just rest him. And I think the offense and the offensive line is going to continue to mesh, get it together. Their tight ends are going to get healthy.

which will help the run game. Jonathan Taylor is a great trade for target. Now, it's within the realm of, you know, possibility that he's just, because I would say most people are disappointed with how he's been so far. He has not been bad. He hasn't been hurting your fantasy team. He's been getting workload, but he hasn't had any explosive games. He's not winning weeks for you. And that could just be who he is.

But I think they get it together. I think touchdowns come more frequently. And the second half of the season, a player that climbs into the top 12 by season's end will be JTT. I agree. I agree. I think he's got a great opportunity. I mean, he's been solid. He'll be passed his by week now and 13.1 fantasy points per game. He's, you just have one dud, but you're right, Jason. He hasn't hit, he hasn't broke through the glass ceiling yet of.

You're like, oh, superstar Jonathan Taylor is here. I have two guys that I want to highlight. One, Darrell Henderson from the Los Angeles Rams, and this is a sketchy proposition here because of what the Rams have been doing with their running backs. But he is the best running back on this team. Cam Acres seems to be pulling a homer into the bush, just walking right back despite his draft capital.

It's sketchy because Cam Acres could emerge at some point. But I think that Darrell Henderson is going to be their guy that they roll with through the rest of the season. And the other player is Chase Edmonds from the Arizona Cardinals. The number one waiver pickup of this week, I think Kenyon Drake is going to miss several weeks. I think Chase Edmonds is the better player. And this is the opportunity where, I mean, Kenyon Drake did this to David Johnson last year. David Johnson got hurt.

Kenyon Drake was the much better player. Kenyon Drake took David Johnson's lunch money. And that lunch money that Drake stole, I think Edmonds is about to snatch it. And that absolutely could happen where Drake does not get his role back. That can happen. But it is worth noting that the Arizona Cardinals placed two players on IR yesterday. They did not place Kenyon Drake on IR. So if you're talking about timeline-wise, IR would mean you're going to guarantee miss three games. That is not.

It'll be interesting, though, because they're on by, right? Yes. So you wonder if, yeah, you know, not practicing this week, is it a necessity? The guys they placed on IR were definitive done injuries. One of them was, yeah. One was an ankle injury that they're basically calling the three-week timeline. All right, wide receivers, fancy points per game leaders at the midway point. Tyler Lockett's number one, Calvin Ridley at two, Adam Thielen.

At three. DeAndre Hopkins at four. D.K. Metcalf at five. Stefan Diggs at six. Justin Jefferson at seven. Tyree Kill at eight. Julio Jones at nine. Amari Cooper at 10. Will Fuller, the Flying V at 11. And Chase Claypool at 12. Keenan Allen Robbie Anderson are 0.1 points per game behind Claypool. So basically tied for 12th. And Devante Adams would be number one.