Fantasy Football 2018 - The Overreaction Episode, Blake the Snake Gets Paid

If he had had fewer touchdowns that season, you would have still been very happy with him. Yes. Because he had the 96 receptions. The other three years in his career, 68 reception, 74, 71. Last year was his lowest yardage year. Lowest... Yards per reception went way down for... Right. Well, they've been down the last couple years. But my point is this. Is he the kind of player that you can see belongs in that 70 catch range? Does he need the touchdowns?

Yes, he does. He's expecting them to come back. Well, he does. I'm not fully projecting all the touchdowns to come back. I'm not saying it's double-digit touchdowns here for Mike Evans. My point is simple, people are going to over react and say, I don't want Mike Evans on my team. They spent a lot on him. He's a bum. He had five touchdowns last year. There were those that drafted him over, you know, what, probably over Beckham in some dynasty leagues last year.

Yeah, possibly. He was on that list. It was like an early second round pick, which to be fair, we did say he's not worth that draft capital. But what I'm saying is don't put him on your fantasy burns.

I will not draft Mike Evans if you're hanging out in the third round needed wide receiver. Absolutely. Mike Evans fits that bill. I mean, you know, I brought up the fact that Amari Cooper, his first two years going all the way back to 2000 is the 12th best in that whole time. Well, the eighth best would be Mike Evans ahead of, one spot ahead of Calvin Johnson. And if you look at the first three years of a wide receiver going back to 2000, he's the third.

best. The only two guys with better seasons were Odell Beckham Jr. and AJ Green. All right. This last overreaction candidate for me, it's a difficult one. And I wish I could just hedge, right? But the question that I have, the overreaction I have is, is this is Kareem Hunt elite and is he worthy of an elite draft pick? And I guess I'm throwing some caution out there because

There are three to four reasons why I think Kareem Hunt might not be worth what you draft them for in 2018. Reason number one, it already existed last year and we saw what happened. And that's the Andy Reid reason. Tends to forget guys for a little while. Weeks four through 13 for Kareem Hunt were not that great.

They were not thinking. He never surpassed 16 fantasy points. He had single digits in that time period. He had these random single digit weeks in terms of carries that Andy Reid provides. So that variable was there last year. Obviously he had a monster month one, right? His month one, he was 8.53 yards per attempt. He went insane. But after month one, 3.6, 3.33 in month three. Went back up at the very end of the year.

Gave people the hope, and I think exactly what they need to draft him very, very high. He was 4.97. But I want to remind people about a couple other factors. One, you do have a change at the quarterback position. You have Pat Mahomes taking over for Alex Smith, right? And two, last year they lost Spencer Ware, and they made due with Cream Hunt and Charkandrick West. I'm not going to be surprised if they...

put themselves in a position where they don't have to overload Kareem Hunt, especially the way months two and three ended up. From a workload perspective, people thought maybe he got tired, whatever that was. So I think depth is going to be something that they add to the running back. They don't take it away. So I don't think opportunities are going to go way up. You got a different quarterback. You got the Andy Reid situation. And I hate to bring him up because it's not fair to just imbue what happened to Jeremy Hill on everybody. But Jeremy Hill's an example of a rookie.

that set the world on fire that caught your eye, 5.1 yards per attempt. Well, year two, the world's your oyster, Jeremy Hill, and he went out, and it was 3.6 to carry. And you had multiple months in a row with 3. It wasn't just opportunity for Kareem Hunt in those two months. It was two straight months of 3.6, 3.3. So do I think he's a guaranteed elite player? I don't. Now, you guys might not fall in the same category. Well, the only things I wanted to bring up,

in favor of Kareem Hunt. He did lead the league in rushing this past year, despite five other players having more carries than him. He forced more mistackles than any other running back by 13. He forced 61 mistackles. Number two is Melvin Gordon at 48. He's number one in yards after contact. Yeah, the glasses are, that's fine. He put the glasses down for Melvin Gordon. That's fine. Number one in yards after contact.

839 yards. That's more than Lev Bell. That's more than Todd Gurley. So I think he's a really, really freaking good running back. I cannot argue. That's fair. Andy Reed frequently forgets who his best players are. This is just, this happens. The doubt needs a cheat sheet from the ultimate draft kit. For, for death, I disagree that they will bring anyone into challenge. Even if they don't, though. Spencer, where?

could be that, you know, guy that comes in and just takes a few carries. I just think it's a decision. That's all I'm saying. Sure. My whole overreaction is, I think you actually have to make a decision as an owner like Mike to say, I think he's really good. He's going to overcome obstacles or I don't think he's worth the draft value. Right. That's it. Yeah. He will go, he will be very, he will be drafted very, very high. Yeah. Right. And I do think that his talent will win in the end.

I see him as very talented, but there are no doubt issues like Andy Reid opportunities. With my third guy, I tried a couple different approaches and either decided it, you know, it wasn't a big enough overreaction or there was not enough data to back it up. Like I was going to say people are going to overreact on Evan Ingram's rookie year. And as I started really trying to nail that down on it.

Yeah, maybe. He's going to get targets. He's going to get targets. All right. Well, next guy. Look, I'll say this. If people overreact and drop Adam Thielen based on how he finished the year, you're a dummy. But I don't think people are going to overreact and drop them. I wish they would so I could shame you. And then my other one that I failed on was I was going to say people are going to overreact on rookie running backs based on this crazy year. But...

Because we haven't even gone through the NFL draft and don't know where these incoming rookies are, that's not time to do it. So I landed with another. You sound like you're staying water, Jason. I am staying water. And I believe this one with all my heart. I think people will overreact on Kirk Cousins and his wide receivers wherever he lands. Sign me up. Yes. In other words, wherever he goes.

You're going to get the hype train on those whiteouts. You're going to talk about. Exactly. You're going to talk about Demarius Thomas. You're going to talk about Demarius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Or you're going to talk about Adam Thielen and Stefan Diggs. But the thing is, is you're going to talk about it a lot. One of the things we had on our Things to Remember episode was don't forget how lousy, all the free agents were, the majority of them.

Because what happens is when they move, they get news. And no one's getting more news than the biggest quarterback free agent signing in the last, you know, as long as you can remember, you've got a franchise level contract. There was one. Well, sure. Are you talking Peyton? Yeah. All right. Fair. Okay. He takes cake. Technically, the jolly green giant was bigger. He was a free agent? Oh, you're right. No, that was restricted. There you go. You can't let the jolly green giant go.

You pay him what he wants. What will happen. Green beans. He wants more veggies. There will be so much talk surrounding his arrival and what it means that it will lead to an overreaction where the wide receivers are bumped up too high, where he's bumped up too high, and we're going to completely ignore the fact that he's changing teams. You're talking about the number seven overall quarterback? And the number six quarterback the year before. Those will be the arguments that come out. Successive years. Three straight years of 4,000 yards. Yeah, no. Exactly.

You guys are making my point and you don't realize it. More accurate quarterback. You guys are making my point. My point is all of those things, those are what's going to be said about Kirk Cousins going to this new team. But what I want you to remember is that I want you to hate on Demarius Thomas when he lands in Denver. He does not get one single piece of familiarity. Sure. Of consistency. He doesn't get one. Unless.

Terrell Pryor, if someone moves with him, it's a whole complete changeover. It's a whole complete changeover. Payton Manning. Payton Manning threw almost 47, 100 yards, 37 touchdowns. I've learned this so much. I've learned a few things on the show. Mike Evans is better than Calvin Johnson. Carson wins is better than Aaron Rogers. And now Kirk Cousins is better than Peyton Manning. Yes, if Peyton Manning switches teams, he's good. I said earlier.

Kirk Cousins is not a franchise saving quarterback. Peyton Manning is a franchise saving quarterback. Clearly, obviously, he's done it for two different franchises. I don't know if you guys realize this, but the Great Kirk Cousins, did you know that Washington, the Washington Redskins. Please be his name. The Washington Redskins actually had him the last few years. They did. I mean, why didn't he bring him to a Super Bowl? He didn't? Oh, yeah. The Great Kirk Cousins? The Great Kirk Cousins.

He's not that good. You're going with the Super Bowl argument. No, I'm playoffs. He got to the playoffs. Last year? How about two years before that? Oh, you're just going to leapfrog the one year they made? I'm saying this. I was whiteouts away last year. Jordan Reed was hurt. Well, we'll see, but people are going to overreact. Clearly two people are going to overreact on this show. I think we both like Kirk Cousins. Yes. Good.

Speaking of Washington, this is where the last. Oh, you still got one more. This is the last overreaction. And it's going to pale in comparison because I cannot possibly be as in as passionate about this as Jason just was. The great Kirk. About the great Kirk cousins. Hashtag sarcasm. But can't it? I'm going with italics. The great. Emphasis. And this is.

This is do not write off the Washington run game. Okay. Because we had a report a few days ago that said we expect Somaget Pirine to be the starter. And now there's another report. They look to upgrade the running back situation, which they might. But my point is simply, if Somaget Piran is the starting running back, don't write him off. Because the Washington offensive line, their starters missed a combined.

20 games. And that doesn't even start to account for all of the backups that got hurt. In 2016, according to football outsiders, they were the sixth best run blocking offensive line. They were the third best past blocking offensive line. And that had Matt Jones. You guys remember Matt Jones? Do I? Ran 4.6 yards per carry. Rob Kelly ran for 4.2 in 2016.

Last year in 2017, Rob Kelly trudged along for 3.1 and carrying Samajai P. Ryan at 3.4. So I think this is more a situation of the offensive line was absolutely mangled, destroyed. For the most part, it's coming back. I'm talking about guys who are under contract. So I don't want people to write off Samajai P. Ryan, who, by the way, had two back-to-back monster games and then...

started showing up in the injury report. I feel like it's more likely players, fantasy owners, will write off the Washington run game if P-Rine is not named the starter. Oh, if it's anybody but P-Rine. Like P-Rine's young enough to where I think you're going to get that. You're going to get some of the hype train going on. I would say if P-Rine's not to start it is because they drafted a known name and then the hype train may start. I see. If someone of note, if one of these rookies of note,

does go to Washington, I'll be very excited about it, even with Alex Smith as the quarterback. All right. Alex Smith was just fine for Kreme Hunt. He certainly was. That is it for the overreaction episode. Thanks for tuning in. Check out the ultimate draft kit at ultimate draft kit.com. And don't forget to check out draft.com slash ballers. Play some basketball with us. Get your best bell on. Get your best bell on. That's when you get left bell in all your leagues. Yeah. Way to save it. Goodbye.

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