Fantasy Football 2017 - Hype Train + NFC South Breakdown

I would take him in the six round. Okay. I think that's where he's going. Yeah, I would take him in the late six. I mean, that's where Derek Henry's going. I'd take Coleman over. I'd rather have Coleman. Yeah, me too. That's my point. Let's talk about Matt Ryan. You brought him up. We've had lots of debates. Before the show started, Jason and I were debating once again because I was making the point to Jason that every time a new, exciting, amazing stat about that season comes out, it's just another reason that Jason says he's going to regress.

One of the things I looked at, Matt Ryan last year in 16 games, he was a QB1, 11 times. The other five games, he was a 2, QB2. He never had a game outside of a QB2. 11 times as a QB1. One of the most consistent seasons you can expect from this kind of player. I am of the belief, and I know, Mike, you're more on my side. Look, the personnel's the same on the field. We expect greatness from Drew Brees every single year. We expect it from Tom Brady and Aaron Rogers.

I don't see a reason. I believe that Matt Ryan is good enough to enter that echelon with this offense and these offensive pieces. So I'm not calling for a regression on the offense. All right. So here's why I think that there is a clear and definite regression coming for the offense. Now, when a player throws for a new career high in touchdowns or anything, you always have to ask the question. And like, have they just gotten better?

Or is this, you know, an outlier if it's away from the pack? And it can be either. I mean, there's plenty of examples where a guy stepped up and he took that leap forward and plenty of examples where, no, that was... Got that XP. Yeah, you know, that was the outlier. It's rare to have that example come after, you know, almost a decade playing football. And all of a sudden, you know, now he goes from...

throwing 21, 28, 26 touchdowns of three years prior to 38 touchdowns. And just look at the team as a whole, okay? Because I think that's a little bit better way to start when, you know, we're breaking down the entire division. Let me tell you, here are the total points scored for the Falcons, okay, the last four years. Total points for the Falcons. 353 points, 381, 339.

Pretty consistent around that 350, which is very, you know, that's not bad. 540. Now, let's take a look at, okay, well, maybe they leveled up and they'll stay at 540. In the last several years, going back to, I think, 2011, teams that scored over 540 points. You have the 2011 Packers and Saints. Two teams did it that year. The next year, both of those, with Drew Brees, with Aaron Rogers.

They went down to 433 and 461, which is basically losing 200 points out of those two teams. The 2012 Patriots did it. They fell 113 points of next year. The 13 Broncos did it. They fell 124 points the following year. There's just no example of a team or a player that takes this type of a leap up that doesn't, even if he, okay, he doesn't regress all the way back, he's.

He's going back and that's going to happen. I think he's going to go most of the way back. And I agree that he's going to come down because if I was projecting last season, then Matt Ryan would be my number one quarterback. I mean, so yes, there's going to be regression. But since 2012, Matt Ryan averages 4,700 passing yards. It's not abnormal for him to be up near 5K. I mean, he's a good quarterback. There was the outlier of,

He averaged since 2012 14 interceptions a year. That went down to seven. And he's averaged 29 touchdowns since 2012. And it was 38 last year. The thing about 2012, when I went back to that is because that's when he had a really strong year. That was essentially his best fantasy season to this point of his career. 32 touchdowns. And look at his personnel.

He had three elite options. He had Julio Jones, good Roddy White, and good Tony Gonzalez. And so that's why I'm not completely backing off of Matt Ryan because he says, Julio, Taylor Gabriel, his running backs, Sunu is not a bad player. He's fine. But if it was just Sunu and Julio, maybe I have concerns. But I'm not going to bury Matt Ryan.

all the way out of my top five because of the regression. He's got a great schedule to start the year and he has a pretty decent schedule overall. It makes sense for him to not necessarily top out at those numbers, but I still have a lot of, I just think the stability of what you see on that offense and the head coach gives me a lot of confidence in him being in upper echelon quarterback. And just so we're clear for the listeners, I'm not saying he goes back to where he was the 19th ranked quarterback the year before, before he had those weapons.

2012 is a perfect example. He was the seventh quarterback. Depending on scoring for him at seventh or eight. I've got him right now is my eighth quarterback in four point, seventh in six points. So that's where I expect him to go to. Is a decent quarterback, not one of those. We need to move on from Mount Ryan. Okay. No, we need to move on, talk about some more falcons. I was going to move on to Austin Hooper. Well, and I want to bring him up too because Austin Hooper, I want to get your take on where you would draft him.

The thing about Austin Hooper hype for me is when you look at the numbers last year, this is a team that was at the bottom of the league in terms of targeting the tight-in position, 30th out of 32 teams, only five targets to the tight-in position per game, only three catches a game on average for the tight end. And that's not going to get it done in fantasy. He could be the most athletic player, but if he's the fifth option on the team, which based on the weapons you just named, he might still be, you're looking for, do I pick a game where Austin Hooper?

catches a touchdown, not so much can I start Austin Hooper every week. Where I draft Austin Hooper is in the year 2018. That's where I was going to go. But he is a player that keep an eye on him. And you really use his rookie year if you're trying to use that as his fantasy baseline. The first seven games, he only played on 23% of snaps. The second seven, 66%.

That's only 14 games because he missed too. But just saying he is a player who is up and coming. I believe in him for the future. I'm not drafting him in redraft, but he could end up being a waiver wire pickup. I'm going to put you guys on the spot with one more Falcon before we move on here to the Buccaneers. Taylor Gabriel, right now an 11th round draft pick. He's going around players like Adam Thielen, Marvin Jones, Kenny Britt, Mike Williams of the Chargers, Jordan Matthews, aforementioned.

Where does he fall in that mix? Because I have a feeling you guys are not taking Taylor Gabriel over Kenny Britt. Probably not Kenny Britt, but this depends on my roster construction. I feel like Kenny Britt is just a safer floor type of guy. Meanwhile, Taylor Gabriel, Weeks 8 through 15 was a wide receiver 2 and 6 of those 7 games. He was a wide receiver won twice. He's highly volatile. That's why I was saying it's roster construction. If I have two safe...

or let's say I've one real safe wide receiver, one mix, and then I'm going to throw Gabriel as my third wide receiver because I know that he can win me a week as long as my roster is safe to absorb his failures, which will happen. Right. I agree completely. Also a great target in a draft-only best ball format. Oh, yes. I love the upside that he gives you, like you said. He's got number one. I took him on in my Tuesday's play draft draft. Very nice.

All right, let's go ahead and talk about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, finished second in the division, nine and seven, a lot of hype around this offense, a lot of big pieces being added to the buck's offense, Deshawn Jackson, O.J. Howard and Chris Godwin in the draft, Jeremy McNichols as well. I'm going to be honest with you guys. I'm going to come clean. Uh-oh. I'm having, I feel like I need to come into the therapist's office right now, and I need you guys to talk to me.

Come on. Please have a... Take a seat. Have a seat. Lay down if you must. It's this relationship I have. Tell me what troubles you, my son. I need to talk about this relationship I have with James Winston. Hmm. Because it's a hot and cold thing. Sometimes we're hot for each other and sometimes we're not for each other. Last year, this blew me away. Last year, he was outside the top 12 for the last six weeks of the season. But more... More...

depressing, depressing than that. Only three top 10 finishes out of 16 weeks for James Winston last year. And when you start to look at this offense, I see all the glitz and glamour to Sean Jackson, Mike Evans, and I can see all the touchdowns. But then I see this as a team. 25 carries a game, fifth most in the league, a commitment to the run that led them to a near playoff berth. And I don't know.

if I should commit to this breakout Winston narrative or not. And I need help, guys, or like some medicine. I can join you because I've been a little bit worried about Winston and the Buccaneers passing offense for a while. Mike Evans, I still believe in him. I'm still fine where he is being drafted, I believe. I don't actually don't, what wide receiver is Mike Evans going as. I'll vet it. Thank you.

The first eight games, Mike Evans was getting 13 targets a game because the Buccaneers defense was vastly underperforming. And as we know, Mike Evans was the show in town. Jason has signaled to me that he is the wide receiver four in drafts. I wouldn't take him forth. So I lied when I said I'm okay with where he's going. I'm still okay with him being, you know, a second round pick. But the final eight games, the defense turned it around, nine targets a game.

the final five games of the season. He was averaging five receptions and 60 yards. I mean, that's fine. That's perfectly fine. I mean, that's essentially a thousand yards season, but that's not a top four wide receiver unless he's dropping those 12 plus touchdowns again. So I am, I don't want Evans in my top five. Yeah, when it comes to the entire passing game.

I'm so confused by the Buccaneers right now. 16th most passing yards last year. So I look at the middle of the pat. Yeah. And, and, and remember last year, right, everyone was talking about the schedule to come. Oh, for the, for the freaking playoff schedule. The playoff schedule was so juicy. It's just a bunch of garbage teams. And so you want where Mike Evans went five receptions for 60 yards through the. Right. That's the point. They, they super disappointed. And you go, well, that, that's weird. They had, you know.

but they won those games, and that's the problem is that. Well, for fantasy, the problem is the problem is the methodology that worked for them was not good for fantasy players in good matchups. Here is the weirdest stat I have seen in a while when I was getting ready for this show. So I looked up the team, and what happens when- James Winston has six toes on his left push. He has six toes. That's why he's so mobile. Yeah.

It's all based on toe quantity. I looked up as a team, how do they do against when they face top half and bottom half passing defenses? There is a huge gap on the team level. So when they face top half pass defenses, their point differential as a team was more than negative seven. Or I guess it would be less than negative seven. But against the bottom half, it was positive seven. That's a huge swing.

So their team is so much better against bottom passing D teams. And this is over the last two years. Well, James Winston, if you look at his splits, he actually performs better against top half passing defenses. So you go, what in the world? Yeah, I'm just getting very confused over here, Jason. Here's why. He's saying the team's better against bad passing defenses, but James is worse. But the passing game, as we saw in the playoffs last year, is not.

Over a 32 game sample size, which I think is fair because Dirk Cutter was still the, so the last two seasons, Dirk Cutter was an offensive coordinator, then head coach, and it even got even more drastic as the head coach last year. When they face a good passing defense, they passed the ball almost 10 times more a game. They just commit, we're like, we're going to beat you at why you do. And they've done this for 32 games. I don't get it. It makes no sense. Or is that more so because of their.

They were losing. Yeah, I mean, obviously the better passing teams are better teams, and so they could be down. That makes sense. But his efficiency was worse, but James actually performs better against those more difficult teams. The first six weeks, man, the buck's schedule is not, does not look good. Overall, in the season, they've got a good schedule. So, yeah, I mean, the bucks, there's a lot of question marks here. Did we help anybody there? I have no clue. Deshaun Jackson.

Where do you put Deshaun Jackson range of possible outcomes before we move on from the – I mean, I feel like we need to talk about the running back situation. Yeah, we'll get there. So speak briefly about Jackson, and then Jason maybe touched on the running backs, and we'll move on. Deshaun Jackson is – his outcomes to me is wide receiver two, wide receiver three. He was 1,000 yards last year, but he was still just a three. And Kirk Cousins is one of the better deep ball passers. Well, we know that James Winston likes to air it out.