Fantasy Football 2017 - Keep/Trade/Cut + AFC South Breakdown

38, 37 range, and that's just not going to get it done. He'll have enough volume to be a, you know, an RB2 on your fantasy team. He's still, you know, he's like the exact opposite of Delaney Walker. To me, his value in where he's going in a draft is going to make sure he's probably on my team and is playing, you know, in that flex position or as my RB2 or if I have to start three RBs, he's a great option.

But his upside, I just don't think, is there even with this offense. Yeah, this offense is a passing offense. I mean, that's what you have to look to. Bottom third in the league in rushing attempts last year. Their defense was bottom third in almost every major category. So, you know, unless that offensive line improves, which it hasn't, really. I mean, do you guys disagree with that? Last year, they were ranked 25th. They're in the 20s still now, according to Pro Football Focus.

I would agree with that. You know, this is a team that's going to lean on Andrew Luck. We know the power of T.Y. Hilton in that offense. Dante Moncrief is healthy. I really like him as a value if he can stay healthy, obviously. Camar Aiken. Here's the last question I want to ask you guys. Only the Chargers averaged more tight-in touchdowns per game than the Colts did last year. The Colts average 0.8 touchdowns per game from the tight-in position. That's 12 total on the year.

They also caught 73% of their targets, which was third best in the league. Obviously helps have Andrew Luck, but you did have efficiency at the tight-in position. Dwayne Allen is gone. Jim Doyle. Jack Doyle? Jack Doyle? Jack, what did I say? Jim? Jack Doyle. Jim and Jack? It's interreplaceable, really. Yeah. Jack Doyle, was 54% of the offense last year in terms of targets at the tight-end position. So, he's my man.

Is he your man? He's my man from the Colts offense if I want to tie it in. And we have seen just over the years, Andrew Luck can support two tight ends, which is kind of bizarre for fantasy. But Dwayne Allen, because he was a touchdown machine. And Kobe Fleener was fine. I mean, like he's a usable, startable, tight end. And it's, you have Jack Doyle. That's actually what's printed right under Kobe Fleener's football card. Usable.

Decent, tight-in. And then they pre-print the 53 receptions. And Eric Swope, I lean towards Jack Doyle. They gave him the money. I'm going to follow that. And I think that if anybody is going to get done in the tight-in potential? No, I don't think so. But tight-in won for sure.

He's got the potential to be inside him. I don't think he's locked and loaded the way a lot of people. I'm saying he has that potential. Some of it's going to come down to Dante Moncrief. I mean, you saw pretty decent split there when Dante Moncrief was not there. Jack Doyle, when it came to the end zone and the touchdowns, he doubled his output on an average per game touchdown without Dante Moncrief than when Moncrief was playing. So if Moncrief is back and is healthy, that's where Andrew Luck wants to go.

you know, in the red zone, not Doyle. Doyle will still get his, but not at the same clip. Yeah, I think that's a fair thing. I have one question. We didn't even mention his name. He was a first round pick. Wide receiver, Philip Dorset. He played on 70% of snaps last year. 70% of all the Colts offensive snaps. 59 targets in a past first offense with Andrew Luck. How do you only draw?

59 targets. He had that Harry Potter invisibility cloak on. I mean, that is, that's rough. That is, that is not confidence from your quarterback. No. And so I was going to say, do you, you feel like Aiken's going to take that third wide receiver job? Or is it? I think he should because Aiken's a good, a good wide receiver. Aiken's is opposite from Philip Dorset as you could possibly get. He's reliable.

less athletic, less of a burner at this stage in his career. Aiken's pretty athletic. I like him. But I would, I think that Aiken is a nice, very, very cheap. I mean, essentially free in drafts, just a nice flyer to grab a piece of the Colts offense. Yeah, I'm not going to grab that. Super deep, maybe. But you're not taking them over in a draft. Let's say you had to flex. Aiken or Doyle, you're flexing Doyle.

Right? Yeah, I'm talking about in the draft. I want to see week one what they do. He's probably in my first cut spot. I'm just saying that he takes that job, if Moncrief is not right. Yeah, that's going to be settled more in camp, I think. Yeah, and I'm not convinced that the third wide receiver role is as valuable with the way that the Colts, you know, run their packages as it is elsewhere. You know, he throws the ball to other positions. Sure. One very last thing to say, I meant to bring it up on Frank Gore.

But when we talk about all the touchdowns, Frank Gore last year had four receiving touchdowns. That is very abnormal. The last five years prior to that, one of which was with the Colts, he had three combined. So if you're just looking to him for him to repeat. He finds a way to end up at RB12, whether you like it or not. If you can't do it on the ground, he may kick a few next year. He'll do what it takes. It's not abnormal for Andrew Luck to throw.

Touchdowns to the running back, though, that we've seen that be a prominent role for that office. We need to move on to Jacksonville, guys. Look, the CDC was called in. Everybody in Jacksonville was infected with a case of the Bortles last year, and it trickled down. It didn't matter if you were Alan Robinson. It didn't matter if you were T.J. Yeldin, it destroyed you as an offense. Blake Bortles was patently terrible last season. When you catch the Bortles, it results in a really abnormal.

elbow throwing motion. Yeah. That's symptom number one. Then Alan Robinson struggled last year. 2.9 yards after the catch. I thought that was one of the most insane statistics. That's down there in Mike Evans range, yards after the catch. Only 5.8 yards per target that was third worst in the league. Alan Robinson, the year before, his big breakout year.

You had a high touchdown total, and you had big plays. You had the ability for Bordles and Robinson to connect on some of these deep passes. Last year, guess what percentage of passes over 20 yards were caught? Oh. So when Bortles targeted somebody 20 plus yards down the field, what percentage of those passes were caught? I do not know. Give it to me. 7%. What? What? So you can say whatever you want about how talented Alan Robinson is, but there was a problem last year, and it wasn't.

just Alan Robinson dropping passes or, you know, Alan Hurons's injury. This offense, to me, you know, you had 37 attempts a game last year by Blake Bortles. I was going to say, how does that? All that. And yet, Blake Bortles was a quarterback won. Yes, he was. He was. But this is a team. Oh, the garbage man can. Look, if you think I'm just bashing Jacksonville, these two gentlemen next to me will tell you how much I love Jacksonville. Yes.

I was a Gus Bradley apologist for the majority of my adult life. And yet, I don't know what you're going to see from the upside of the passing offense in Jacksonville this year. They want to be a more defensive team. They have a great defense on paper. You bring in Clayas Campbell and other defensive weapons. Great draft. You bring in Leonard Fournett, a strong...

push towards the running game towards taking pressure off of 37 attempts a game. So let's say you take seven attempts a game off of Bortle. That seems reasonable, right? 30 attempts a game. That's still a good chunk. Now you're asking Blake Bortles to be efficient to give you fantasy value. Not just a garbage man. I'm not sure he even knows the definition. Of efficient? Yeah. No. So based on your stat of his deep passing, I wanted to look up pro football focus and how they ranked him as a deep passer.

And then I caught this. His quarterback rating as a deep passer, 6.4. I've never seen it. I didn't know the numbers could go that low into single digits. Congratulations, Blake. You've done it. You did it, man. But here's the reality. Under 10, they would just write bad. Here's a reality, though. They picked up his fifth year option.

They, you know, I think they are committed. He's a quarterback. I think they are committed to him. And he's going to have the opportunity. Is there any chance it was the shoulder last year? And two years ago, Blake Charles is, is, you know, actually he's a good quarterback. And last year he was injured. Well, I wouldn't say he was good two years ago. I would say he was good. No, but as a second year NFL quarterback. Yes. Everybody said, hey, he made a step, a step forward. Absolutely. That step did not turn into any kind of victories.

No, which I'm not going to put all that on a quarterback's shoulder. There's a lot of other pieces, but I just, I don't think he's a good quarterback. And we have actually, we had this debate for a draft for the Scott Fishbowl. We were looking at who do we want to have on our team where this is, we're pretty close to locked into this quarterback because the waiver wire is barren. We're looking between. And it's Blake Bortles and Carson Palmer. And Andy and I are first.

gut instinct of saying why we would take Palmer over Bortles in this type of a league where you're committed, say, I don't know if the Jacksonville Jaguars will be starting Blake Bortles in come week eight. The head coach, Doug Marone, first full season, Tom Coughlin running things over there in Jacksonville, committed to the running game. I don't think that historically you have the patience level with Tom Coughlin to let a guy struggle and do what he did last year. If he comes out this year,

And he's a different player. If the arm motion is fixed, you notice how many times I'm saying the word if, it doesn't make it a good fantasy option. So two players we just talked about that are in such identical situations of two years ago. They were great. Last year they stunk. What's going to happen? Who do you guys take if you're on the clock and you're looking at DeAndre Hopkins and Alan Robinson? Yeah, I'm going to take Alan Robinson in that situation. That comes down to 37 attempts a game last year for Blake Borrell. And Doug Marone. When Doug Marone took over.

Alan Robinson improved in the second half of the season. Yes, that's true. He knew how to use him, and I think you saw more of what we came. Wasn't the quote was essentially, oh, yeah, we started moving them around the formation. Yeah, they actually started. You actually did coaching things? Yeah, you have to see. Jeff Fisher was baffled by that comment, by the way. So, yeah. No, it's a good question between those two, but I think I think I would take Alan Robinson in that situation.

but it's close. No, I side there as well because at least when we talk about those two guys, you know that Alan Robinson has done it with Blake Bortles before, whereas you don't know, you know, DeAndre Hopkins has a bunch of question marks there. That being said, Alan Robinson, Alan Robinson is being drafted as the 18th wide receiver overall versus the 12th as Hopkins. Speaking of a guy who has done it before with Blake Bortles, that's Alan Hurons. Moving forward. Alan Hearns.

When Alan Robinson had his big year, Alan Hurons also had a big year, 1,000 yards, 10 touchdowns. Last year, through his seven healthy games to start the year, 31 receptions, 443 yards. Yes, that doesn't sound great. But that's a pace of 70 plus receptions over 1,000 yards yet again before he had his concussion problems, his hamstring problems. And Marquise Lee had a bit of a breakout. So is there, if it's Alan Hurons or Marquise Lee, where are you leaning?

on those two guys. I definitely lean Alan Hearns because this is not going to be a volume offense like Andy was saying. Blake Bortles is not going to throw that much. So I'm going with the guy who has more touchdown potential versus needs, you know, needs to be peppered with targets a lot. Yeah, I want to be, I want to be careful. I mean, I didn't say it's not going to be a volume offense. I said that 37 attempts a game is hopefully going to come down. But if your team, if their defense can't get it done, you're going to be put in a tough position. I mean, you can't.

fold the papers out there. I would take Lee in that situation, but I don't have enough confidence in what's happening with Blake Bortles to be on board with any of those guys. I don't want to leave Jacksonville without talking about the number one pick in Jacksonville's draft, Leonard Four Nett, number four pick overall. This is an offensive line last year that ranked 22nd in the league. As of right now, you know, they picked up Cam Robinson in the second round. They lost Luke Jockel, which is...

Great. Addition by subtraction. Yeah, and you have a situation where Leonard Fournett, to me, the eye test, we talk so much about him in the rookie shows, but sometimes we forget to talk about these guys again as we head into the season. One of the best pure combinations of speed and power that I've ever seen coming out of college, you can question the situation, but I think he's going to have a really, really good rookie season. I think they're going to give him every opportunity.

to be both the face of the franchise and the kind of major cog in this offense. Where do you guys sit on Four Nets upside this year? I know that you've both been more hesitant, maybe because of offensive line play. But what is the ceiling? I mean, what are the possible outcomes for Leonard Fournette? Is he? Sealing would be a top five running back because he's got that talent. And, you know, if you put the over under it, 270 carries.