Fantasy Football - Wildcard Players! Breakout or Bust? - Podcast for 5/26

and Tootin profiles to get the receiving work. Goal line is up in the air because both Crod and Tootin were very successful at that. I feel like it's the incumbent's opportunity and job to lose, and I think that Tootin holds on to it. Yeah, I'm a little bit more neutral. I'm very excited about the potential breakout here. If you want to go in – Kyle looked it up. I was right. It was three carries in a row in that playoff game, 2014-13. Then they just – then they stopped giving – That's enough. Dude, that was the game against Buffalo. It was so bizarre.

They want to keep the offense on the field, Mike. If you score a touchdown too quick, your D has to come in and play. You got to take your time with it. Tootin's upside is certainly obvious to see. You've got a top 10 running back in fantasy last year that left this team, and there's a great offense. I think the offense we want pieces of, and this is why I think, Andy, you like Trevor Lawrence so much because it's like, oh, is it Brian Thomas Jr.? Is it Parker Washington? Is it – who's going to be the one? Well, they all go to T-Law, but the running game, they pass the ball.

I mean, ETN has gotten – or A-Chan has gotten a ton of passes from Trevor Lawrence, and so if it's Tootin catching the ball – Who would you – Look what Allen – Amir Abdullah. Those guys – it's really just a matter of will they bring in a, like, really segmented backfield? Will they have their pass catcher, their goal line guy, their between-the-20 guy? And then you could – I could easily see this being a disappointing backfield, but usually good bets in fantasy are neutral, like, ambiguous backfields on great offenses. Yeah. I mean, on one hand, you've got to look at Chris Rodriguez and say,

look, he had the biggest opportunity last year that he's ever had. He turned 112 carries into 500 yards, scored six touchdowns, was 4.5 a carry. And they kept going back to Bill. He's still 26 years old. The opportunities he got, he took advantage of in Washington. I agree. I just feel like it's a bit of a wild card, like we're talking about. Yeah, both of these guys. I think that Basial Tootin is more likely to be the star than Chris Rodriguez, but the cost difference, I'm almost more likely to go in on – because Chris Rodriguez is left for dead.

No, he's a double-digit round pick, just absolutely – you know, no one wants him. Basial Tootin is not. He's being drafted, I think, as like the running back 26. By the time the season comes, he'll be being drafted as an RB2. This is one that you really want to watch closely in the camp battle as well. I think it's going to inform us a lot. You've got to remember, too, like one little – there's two sides to this one. One, they didn't draft somebody. Right. They won nine of their last ten games. Travis H.M. was a big part of their winning, and they didn't draft somebody.

They could have tried to replace the position. So that says, hey, I have confidence at least in Tootin being there and then bringing in C-Rod. But the other thing about Tootin is he was on the injury report a couple times last year. Week 11 he was on the injury report. Week 14, and he missed three games due to a finger injury. He's a little smaller than Chris Rodriguez is, so the goal line will be interesting there. But I lean – like if you're just saying, based on what we know now, being drafted RB23, I probably lean pretty neutral to that spot, if I'm honest.

It's probably worth taking a shot at 23. So the evidence we have, you know, so for Cohen, you had Rumbelaya with 260 carries and 52 targets. Bucky's year, two years ago, he had 207 carries and 52 targets. Like – It's really about the passing game. And I'm going to project that Tootin will see the 50-plus targets here. And I bet he sees over 200 carries as well. 14 targets last year for baseball Tootin on – Yeah, I mean, the passing game out of the backfield was entirely Travis H.N. Jr., which is why I can kind of forgive Bayshael Tootin for not doing that.

At Virginia Tech, he saw 12% of their receptions. That's a good enough number to say, okay, he can do that. He can do it better than Searod. Yeah, and that's the thing. I think the passing work for multiple years, the passing work out of the backfield, has been where we get fantasy points from the Jacksonville Jaguars. If it goes to Tootin, I think it'll do well. It's the worst check down opportunity in football, though, statistically speaking. In terms of routes run by the – like wasted routes from the running back position, it is the worst situation. Wasted routes as in lowest percentage of routes run targeted?

Lowest percentage of running back routes run targeted by the quarterback and check down. I think that just means that they're running a ton of routes. Well, his check down percentage, it's a combination. It's the check down percentage of Trevor Lawrence combined with the wasted routes at the running back position. A piece of information that I – Kyle, we're sure on this? He's saying Chris Rodriguez was with Cohen at Kentucky. Oh, yeah. No, he was. Yeah, that was a reuniting. Okay. But he's caught six passes in his life. Yeah. That's not a joke. Crawd. Six catches. As a pro. In his career.

But statistically speaking, Trevor Lawrence checks the ball down the least. So that's something to pay attention to as well. If you give me 52 targets, I'll take them. We'll take a break. We'll talk about some more wild cards. All right. We're back into the wild cards. What on earth do we do with Bucky Irving? Dude. Someone tell me. I think you go in on Bucky Irving. I mean, personally, I know that they – the back behind him has been replaced. Kenneth Gainwell comes in. But as much as we don't like Rashad White, he was a valuable part of this team, a team leader.

He was very involved. He was a guy who got a lot of opportunities. Yes, he got a lot of opportunities. I think that last year Bucky was injured. I mean, we know that, right? The shoulder injury happened. He was never the same. There were all sorts of – you know, he was frustrated even mentally with the physical injury. Just had another procedure on the shoulder. So we know it was never healed during last season. But he started the season great. The team wants him to be that guy. I think he's going to have the opportunity to start to be that guy.

I really do. So the question is just do you think he has it or not? He's being drafted higher on – in terms of the sleeper ADP than he is the underdog ADP right now. Which is weird because underdog is – you know, it's best ball. You're looking for upside. He is a true wild card because Mike just – well, we were just talking about Liam Cohen's offense and how successful he was in it and how confident we have – you know, people are confident in Kenny Gainwell and the opportunities that he's had. And he was a league leading or the team leading receiver for Pittsburgh last year.

It's – I guess I say it this way. If Bucky Irving is struggling with injury to start the season, Kenny Gainwell is the kind of guy that's going to make it really annoying for him to be the bell cow from that point on. Because I think Kenny Gainwell will have enough success in that opportunity. How tantalized are you by what Bucky was able to do before he got hurt and before the tumult of last year? I mean, you have to be pretty tantalized because Bucky didn't do average stuff. Like, we were going into last season talking about how almost universally we're out

when a fourth-round running back hits as a rookie because the team is not committed to them. But the way that Bucky hit was not like the way that we've seen – you know, what was the Texans? Damon – Damian Pierce. You know, we knew. Like, he had a great rookie season. It's like, eh, they're not committed to him. This is not their guy. That just didn't seem the way with Bucky. Bucky was so explosive, so important. He took over that role in his rookie season when they liked Rashad White and they're just like, we can't stop giving Bucky the ball.

Highlight after highlight after highlight. And then last season – Efficiency was way down. 3.4 a carry. Way down. 54th out of 55 qualifying running backs. 50 second in rush success rate. Zero carries inside the five. Sean Tucker is still there. If Gainwell's taking pass catching – Yep. And Tucker's taking goal line, you've got a between-the-20 shoulder problem. I am – I agree completely if Gainwell takes the pass catching. That would ruin Bucky. And he should probably. If I was Tampa, that's what I'd want to happen. Gainwell's elite in that department. I think Bucky's better. As a pass catcher, I think he's better than Gainwell.

And that's not to take anything from Gainwell. He's very, very good at that as well. But, I mean, Bucky can do special things, break plays that I don't think Gainwell's going to. Gainwell's just a solid, really capable pass catcher, but he's not a game breaker. Before the injury, that was the number that was really making the weeks for Bucky. Oh, for sure. Four for four, six for six, four for four, five for five in the receiving game. It's an 80 target pace. And an 80 reception. And he had 47 receptions the year before. Baker's just – Baker's very good at feeding his running backs.

Yeah, Rashad White was like 100% catcher. Bucky Irving 100%. Remember when Cam Newton struggled with the check down throws to CMC sometimes? It's too strong. Baker knows how to do it. Yeah, I mean, Bucky is certainly – I'm out. So you're both – I'm out on ADP. You're both out. I'm out because of ADP, which is the whole question. I'm out because – yeah, I hate the ADP. And I just feel like there's so many ways for it to go wrong. Where's he being drafted? What running back number? I have him right now. 15. I mean, I've got him at my running back 16.

So I've got him right about there. Yeah, I'm just – I – I've got him at 22. Maybe the lack of utilization inside the five was all shoulder. So they wanted Sean Tucker to be the hammer at that point. But knowing that these are the options that are in front and the money they gave Gainwell, I find Bucky to be a very scary proposition there. Are you guys fine? You know, we talk about sometimes – we've got players that we just – like, we're fine being wrong on. Yes. Yeah, I'll say that. Are you fine being wrong on him? I am.

Because I think that if we are wrong, it's going to be a real – Yeah, yeah, yeah. This one's going to be like, I don't think you're going to be fine. I think you're going to be real sad. Yeah. Talent-wise, are you taking him ahead of Kyron Williams, Jason? No, no. I've got Kyron in my top ten. Brees Hall? Yeah, I would take him ahead of Brees. Okay. I mean, those are interesting names. And Henry is also one spot behind Bucky right now. There's one big name that we have to talk about. We have to. We haven't done it enough.

Henry, of course. Yes. Isaiah Likely. Yeah. Tight end of the New York Giants. We are – Post, post, post-hype sleeper. He's reunited with Harbaugh. When he played football as the primary tight end without Mark Andrews, he averaged 50 receiving yards per game, 12.5 fantasy points per game. We have spent so much time talking about Malik Nabors' knee injury, the ACL, the meniscus, the second surgery, the timeline. They lost Wanda. And you look at who's going to fill the void in New York while Nabors gets back up to speed. And then, look, if you have high expectations, and I know both of you do, for Jackson Dart,

it's not going to come all on the back of one dude that's coming back from an ACL injury. You still have confidence. We just haven't spent a lot of time talking about the other pass-catching options for the Giants that may be the main guys to start the season. They obviously have Slayton, but Malachi Fields was the draft pick. Isaiah Likely comes in. Darnell Mooney's a part of this roster. I think a lot of people – I don't think we've talked about it enough, and I think a lot of people want us to talk about Isaiah Likely. Signed a three-year, $40 million contract.

$26 million guaranteed. Big boy contract. Perfect. You know, Harbaugh came out and said, when asked about Isaiah Likely evolving into a high-volume tight end for the Giants, he said the numbers you're talking about, the stats, that wasn't part of the thing in Baltimore because of the supporting cast, so to speak. It's going to be a big year. Didn't he also say Likely was going to be a pro bowler last year? Yeah. He had a very – pump him up. This is why I'm calling him a post-post. I feel like every year he's supposed to break out, supposed to take over the Andrews role.

The narrative – It's not abnormal for tight ends to be post, post, post, post. Sure. In Jokus of the world and Ingram, took a long time. But the – tracking the narrative of Isaiah Likely is extremely difficult. Like when Andrews re-upped – and I know Harbaugh's not the GM, but they chose Mark Andrews to give him an extension last year. And like Harbaugh, I'm sure at that time was like, yeah, I'm going to be – I'll still be the coach of the Ravens. And it was like, yeah, let's – okay, we got Andrews longer. And Likely just – Likely was needed.

I mean, Baltimore pass catchers, it has been a problem forever. You have Flowers and Mark Andrews, and then it's like the ghost of Rashad Bateman. And like, okay, well, we got Hopkins here for a couple catches. And you've got Lamar throwing them all. They really, really needed someone, and it just never happened for Likely. So it's the how – why does it work this time? That's, I guess, the question for me. One thing I'll say, and you guys talk about whether you agree, whether it's a problem for him, is that when you watched Jackson Dart have success last year, Neighbors wasn't on the field.

But one thing he did do was he connected with Theo Johnson frequently. Six out of the 10 – in a 10-game stretch six times, Theo Johnson was a top 10 fantasy tight end. And I think we'd all agree Isaiah likely brings a little bit more to the table versatility, big play-wise, than Theo Johnson does. Theo Johnson brings some big mitts and some opportunities, but it was a priority to get the ball to the tight end. I wonder if we could be undercounting that part of the offense for New York. We could. It's the history of Likely with the same guy.

Are you thinking it's unlikely? Yeah, it's Isaiah unlikely. I mean, look, the money says it should work, and the opportunity says it should work. I just don't – Yeah, the money says big plans. The money says big plans. And I just don't see Jackson Dart having success without Likely being involved. Bringing up Theo Johnson can work in both directions. That's what I was saying. Maybe it hurts you because you've got to split. Yeah, exactly. I think it's one of those where Theo Johnson's not just going to disappear. Theo and Jackson Dart have like a close personal relationship as well. They're both going to be on the field.

I mean, last year you had the Andrews Likely, and it works, and they were a good team. I think Likely's great for the Giants. And maybe this is the fantasy burns of having Isaiah Likely in my main Dynasty Leagues forever. You still got him? Yeah. I'll take him. You may have him for any first-round pick you'd like to have. Okay. I'm just saying. Offer on the table. He's good. Look. Wild card breakout. He acted mad at me. Wild card breakout. Isaiah Likely. Probably going to dominate. Oh, no. What are you doing? Oh, he's just throwing out some new stuff to try to get the tradeoff.

We know statistically since. Look at this. A second. Hold on. A second. 27 seconds. Let me read Jason's sweet, sweet lineup here. Here's his four tight ends. Oh, yeah. The baggage carried by these four tight ends in Dynasty is incredible. You ready for this, Mike? I'm ready. We got Isaiah Likely of the New York Giants. We just talked about him at length. Don't worry. We still got Mark Andrews. Yeah. There's a lot of money in those two tight ends. Then we've got just. He don't got a team, but it don't matter. You got Darren the Wallerist sitting there on the bench.

Oh, any moment now. I mean, we. Not to be outpaced by Kyle Pitts on this bench, baby. Pitts. Young and beautiful. Andrews. Likely. Mmm. I mean, two old stars, two future stars. How do you build a Dynasty roster any better? I don't think you can. So statistically. You're one Gadsden away from a perfect roster. Hey, I made a trade offer for Fannin. Oh, did it. Since 2010, 78% of tight end breakouts occur before year five. I sent you a trade offer, Jay. And Isaiah Likely is going into year five, so it would make his breakout statistically an outlier. Unlikely. Yes.

You should have gone with the pun. But you already did the pun. I know. You can't go back. Yeah, you can go back to that. Because this isn't a name. You can't pun the pun. But you can rename. Now he is Isaiah. It's also the natural thing you should have said. It was just a natural thing. I made him an offer, Mike. For Likely? Yeah. Theo Johnson for Isaiah Likely. Dad. It's interesting. Yeah. I mean, statistically speaking, more likely that Theo Johnson has a breakout at this stage of his career. So give it some thought. Yeah. He probably rejected it already.