Early 2018 Busts, Backfields to Avoid, Hate Blockers

Let's say, let's say Shady's better than all those other players. Okay, and he's getting sweaty. How are the bills? How are the bills doing right now? How are they looking? How's that often? Really? Better than you think. Really? Tell me about the offensive line. Eric Wood. How's he doing? Oh, he had to retire. Unfortunately. What about the guy just to the left of him? Their guard. Richie Incognito has. Oh, yeah, he's retired too. Well, at least they didn't trade their left tackle.

Oh, they did! So you're telling me that his entire left side of the line... I just bit my tongue off. I just bit my tongue right off. The entire left side of the line that was not replaced in the draft and free agency. They're playing two linemen. Did you know that? That's what it seems like, man. I mean, they have now what has to have gone from a good offensive line to one of if not the worst in the league, and then in addition to all of that. Oh, great.

Tyrod Taylor opens things up for running backs. You have the threat of him as a rushing quarterback. He's gone, and the guys replacing him are the opposite of a threat. Josh Allen can move. Josh Allen can move, sure, but they're going to start with A.J. McCarran. They won't. It'll be Josh. I don't think it will be either. Let's say Josh Allen is from week one, okay? I think they are stack in the box like they've never done before in Buffalo. If.

Okay. Hold on. Hold on. Hold on. Let me cool off. Let me cool off. First of all, I want to correct one thing you said. He was past the 1800 threshold before last season. Okay? The death threshold. So he was, no, I get it. You can use that as an argument that he's got even more on his record. I will. He had 2,000 carries before last season. 1998. He went out for 1138 yards and six touchdowns and still four carry and still.

Wait, how much of a carry? Was that his worst of his career? Did it, did his efficiency drop after his 1800? You said it dropped off a cliff, and it was massive. And it was only his worst, yards per carry. My career. Look, this is the first year I've ever. He was the running back seven. He's the first year I've ever had to scroll on the ADP page to find the Sean McCoy. He's going in the back of the second round. You're insane if you think he's going to be a disappointment on that kind of value.

He's not a first round pick. He's 209. He is the slippery fish. He also's played with about seven other quarterbacks than Tyrod Taylor as the argument and seven other offensive lines. And he's always been shady McCoy. But I'm going to digress because I think Mike wants to participate in this defense. To call him a bust at the back of the second for a running back that should touch the ball easily over 300 times. He.

is their best receiving option. He's their best running option. He is a carry for Shady McCoy, I think is he doesn't generally take hits, even though it's funny enough he goes down like every game. He doesn't absorb impact like bruising runners. So I think that he has a little bit of longevity built into his career. And on top of that, the past catching ability separates him. There are...

So few true three down running backs in the league. And if you can get a three down running back at the back of the second in a PPR league. If I'm in the back of the second, I will draft Lashon McCoy. And I will get a couple games and I will trade him. I don't think he's going to hold up this year behind that offensive line. That's my worry. Fair enough. Fair enough. Am I up or are you?

I don't remember anymore. I'll jump in real quick. I have Kenyon Drake, who's drafted a few picks after Derek Henry as another early bus candidate. I've made the argument about Miami's rushing offense as opposed to Buffalo, which was number one in the league last year. Yeah, they had a good offense in the top four. We don't know if they have a good offer. No, they did. Yeah, I know they did. We don't know if they will this year or not, just because a couple guys are gone. You don't. We don't know. I don't. You know.

Kenyon Drake, here's the thing that I think is very interesting, and I wanted to bring him up. He was a much better rusher than he was a receiver last year. We talk about Kenyon Drake and carving out the receiving role. He was pretty bad from a percentage standpoint. I mean, maybe that's the quarterback's play. He was 32 of 50. That's 66%. That was bottom five in the league in times of catch percentage. That's Carlos Hyde catch percentage.

That's bottom five. And now you've got Drake, Gore, Belage, and 22 carries to go around on a team that's going to be passing in the second half of the game. I don't think he's going to be a not a completely unproductive player. But I think most people are drafting him in anticipation of an RB2 role. And I think he's going to deliver week-to-week flex appeal unless there's an injury. And so to me, it's just a...

bucket full of question marks. It's question mark about the backfield. It's question mark about the volume. It's question mark about his ability actually to perform efficiently on third down. He's a big play guy, but I worry about week-to-week reliability. So, yeah, I'm passing on Kenyon Drake this year. I don't blame you. The problem with Kenny and Drake is last year when he finally was given, he wasn't given the opportunity. He was ready for it. He was absolutely.

It was a great runner. But what confidence does the Miami staff have to give him that level of a workload, the additions they have made to the running back position? Of course, you've got to fill out your depth chart. I'm not arguing against that, but it seems that they are preparing to not give him that type of a workload that he was given when he was the fantasy MVP of the playoffs behind Todd Gurley.

Jay, did you, Jay's nodding in approval or are you? No, no. I'm, I'm just listening and loving, loving life, man. Just loving life. I mean, that's all I'm doing here. This is a good, this is a good time with two of my best friends. All right. At each other about fantasy football. Okay. I love it. This player that I'm going to talk about here, I think will disappoint. And this is another situation. I don't know if the pie is big enough.

Why the deep breath, Jason? Because... Are you surprised? Are you in agreement? I was really surprised when I saw this name. Are you going to yell at him? I'm not going to yell at him because I hold myself in just so well. I thought you were going to go with in incredible esteem. I hold myself an incredible esteem. No, I just think this guy, I get all the reasons. I understand what you're about to say about this player. My fear in putting him on a list like this, you get it? Is that I think he's just...

Great. Like, I think he's a great player, and that's my fear of calling him a bust. I get it. So I'm going to listen now. The player I fear will not return value on his draft position is Jarvis Landry. So I'll start here. Hugh Jackson as a head coach has produced the wide receiver 28, 21, and 88. Not good. Now, as an OC, he's had some really high-level wide receivers.

But he's not. He is the head coach. And here's what I'm talking about with the pie. Jarvis Landry in 2016 had 131 targets. He had a 28% share of Miami's targets. That's my kind of slice of pie. That's the cartoon where you cut the piece of cake and then you lift the rest of it up, leaving just the one tiny slice. In 2017, Jarvis, 161 targets. Once again, 28%.

If you look back at what the Browns have done the past two years, you had Terrell Pryor's incredible season, right? Where he was a thousand-yard receiver. He had 140 targets. That was still only 25%. And Torell Pryor was, what, wide receiver 20? Wide receiver 21? And the thing about that is behind Torel Pryor, the second highest targeted player on that team was Gary Barnish with 82 targets.

This past season, Duke Johnson had the most targets on this team at 93. Jarvis Landry has not had to play football with guys that commanded targets the way he does in Cleveland. I know it's a crazy thing to say, but Cleveland is full of offensive weapons from Jarvis Landry, Josh Gordon, who I, as much as I'm a Josh Gordon, I love Josh Gordon. I think he's great. But Jarvis Landry. Gordon or Landry?

I'll take Gordon. Okay. But both Gordon and Jarvis Landry are going to disappoint people based on their draft position because I see them both finishing in that maybe you're a wide receiver two, maybe you're a high-end three type of situation. You have to be very prolific for two guys to be great. Yeah. So the ADP is out of control that two players on this team. And...

The attempts are just, they're not going to be there. Now it's, how long is it going to be Tyrod Taylor, who this is the same type of situation as Marcus Mario. The attempts are lower because he runs so much. And what is going to change for the Cleveland Browns? Are they going to say, okay, Tyrod, we're, you're going to throw the ball a ton, which you've never really done. And you're talking, things were optimal as far as garbage time this past season.

and the Cleveland Brown still had 574 attempts. They were like a middle of the pack. That's what I was going to ask is if you thought their defense wasn't going to step up. They want to run the ball. Well, they wanted to last year. Right. Hugh Jackson, stuff it down their throat with Isaiah Crowell, and then they'd give up on it in the second quarter because they didn't have the option. Right. But I'm saying they, even when they were forced to pass the ball, they did not produce.

What do you think about Todd Haley? I mean, he brought up the numbers that Hugh Jackson put up with his top wide receivers, but Todd Haley brings something to that equation. Yes, he does. And I don't think that Jarvis Langer is necessarily going to be terrible. I just don't think that he will return value where you are drafting him because of the pie. And I didn't even talk about.

Injoku, Duke Johnson. They newly extended Duke Johnson. These guys are going to be involved. They made him taller? Was that what I said? No, the newly extended. Oh. So. Oh. Yeah. You did nothing wrong. You deserve the rim shot button on that one. Yeah. You do. Too bad. Oh, is it broken? There we go. But 161 targets. That's not.

that's not what I see in the realm of possibilities for Jarvis Landry this year. And we know that despite last year's incredible success of scoring touchdowns inside the 10 zone, that's not been his story. That's not his forte. That's not his forte either. What's his career worst finish as a wide receiver? Do you know that? Off the top of my head, I do not. Probably like 18. I can pull it up. Yeah, we can look that up. I will say this. He's a very difficult to discern player because.

If he's being drafted as the wider receiver 24, and I don't have a, like, I don't have any strong opinions about like your take being right or wrong here. It just seems like 24 is probably well below his career worst. Sure, but that's where you go. That's where you go towards the argument he's making. Honestly, I like your argument, Mike, in the sense that it reminds me a lot of my argument against Drell Pryor last year from a target, like where are the targets coming from? You can't just, you can't just manufacture him. You have to look at the team and say, okay,

then who isn't getting these targets at an expected rate that the quarterback's going? So, I mean, you know, and the truth is I don't have a whole lot of pass targets for this offense this year because Tyraud doesn't throw a lot, and I don't think he will. When they bring him Baker, Baker will throw a lot in his career, but usually rookies, their attempts are not super high, which would lead the offense to say, okay, if Jarvis is around 20.

4, 23%, which is still a really okay number, really good. That's going to, that could very well disappoint. So while I think Jarvis Landry is a great player, I like your argument. So here's the thing. Matt probably means more to the Browns than he means to your. Yes, 100% this year. And this is, my argument is not a knock on Jarvis Landry as a wide receiver. Two years ago, he, in half point, he finished as the wide receiver 14. So it took him 131 targets. Yeah.

Yeah, no, it makes sense. Jarvis Lander, you hear the quote he said this morning? I did not. So he talked about, he said, is he mad at me? No, he's mad at somebody else. He said, I have not heard from Ryan Tennehill. I'm not surprised. We didn't really have a good relationship. That's weird. That's weird. Just imagine what kind of relationship, if he has a good relationship with this quarterback, how many targets? 600, 700? It's pretty funny, though. I mean, the dysfunction and yet, you know.

Always open. Yep. Okay. Anything else to add with Drivers Landry? Nope. Some early bus candidates. Some we agree on. Some we disagree on. Let's jump in the mailbag. Mailbag. Is there a LaShawn McCoy bet there somewhere? Sure. How about LaShawn McCoy does not finish as RB1? RB1.