Early 2018 Busts, Backfields to Avoid, Hate Blockers

When he played at that level, he won you your week automatically. Yes. It's very much like a handful of years ago in Michael Vick. It was just going to say it's the Michael Vick year. It was all of a sudden he was the first overall pick in fantasy football. If you knew that Deshaun Watson was going to be the number one quarterback and you draft him in the fourth round, you're fine. Sure. But the odds aren't in that in your favor there. Coming off an injury.

with an unsustainable pace. I understand the argument. I think Watson will be very good, and you do too. I have him rushing for 500 yards, rushing for four touchdowns, throwing 24 touchdowns and 3,400 yards. Those are great fantasy numbers. And that's what I'm calculating this bust. So if he, yes, he could, he could exceed that. But what if he, what if he disappoints this year? Right. It'll be an unmitigated bust. Yeah, but, you know, Cam Newton had a year like that.

where he was the world beater number one, and then people drafted him high and finished 15 or whatever. Mike, do you want to share an earlier? Gosh, you guys. Sure. I will go with my first bust, and it's, I just think that this guy is going to disappoint. And you know what? It disappoints me that I have to say this because I love the player. I love his talent. Oh, my goodness, I had not seen the second one. Sorry. I'm going with my first one. It's Corey Davis.

who is currently drafted as the wide receiver 27. And in my projection, I think that will go up. The closer we get to actual draft season. But I did all my calculations as the wide receiver 27. Marcus Mario, the highest level wide receiver he has ever sustained was the wide receiver 20. Before that in 2015, his number one wide receiver was wide receiver 60.

Wide receiver 20 in 2016, and then in 2017, the wide receiver 37. His new OC is Matt LaFleur, who's coming from the Sean McVeigh coaching system, which, right, the Rams were an amazing offense, except they were 24th in pass attempts this past year, and that's the situation. That's my biggest problem with Corey Davis is a matter of volume.

Last year, let's go with it, last year statistics. Mario in 16 games was on pace for about 483 attempts, which is, that's what he's been doing his whole career. His attempts are generally lower because he runs the ball 60 times a year. He's not always forcing an attempt. If I give Corey Davis what he had in the playoffs, because that's when he actually performed, he had a 22% target share. That would be about 106 targets.

And if I give him his playoff catch rate, which was much higher than his in-season at 60%, he comes out to 63 receptions for 693 yards because the volume is just not there. I don't think Marioita will force a target share onto one guy. Richard Matthews is still good. Delaney Walker is still crucial to that offensive situation. And if he puts up that kind of yardage,

And that's me projecting him at the higher end, giving him his really good numbers from this past year. He's under 700 yards. The wide receiver with under 700 yards, the highest he was ranked for fantasy. That was Michael Crabtree, who was wide receiver 29. He needs at least seven touchdowns to return. Which he can do. Which he can do. That's the one thing he can do is even if you're right about all the projections and nothing goes up and you don't see a growth. He could score 10 times.

Yes. Yeah, sure. I mean, he's got the physical capability to do what Mike Evans has done in the past, which has pulled down 10, 11, 12 touchdown. He could. But they also use, they use Richard Matthews as the deep threat. The yards per target, their yards per reception, I should say, for Corey Davis is right around that 10 to 11 yard mark. A lot of what you're saying, though, is on the basis that Corey Davis also ascends in terms of average drop position. Because right now.

Is he a six-round bust? Because he's a six-round pick. Yes. So would you take Will Fuller or Corey Davis? Ooh, I would take... At that point, I would take Corey Davis. Chris Hogan. I would take Hogan. Pierre Garcone, Julian Edelman. Garcone. Not Edelman because of the suspension. Edelman is... Devin Funches. We'll see.

So, Andy, you are. I think I would take fun. You are opposed to this, to Mike's bust call. Look, I'm not opposed to him outlaying the situation. No, of course not. I don't have, look, Corey Davis's track record is. But you're a Corey Davis supporter of this here. I'm a very for him. You're very against. I don't know. Like I said, it hurts me. Oh, hey, Andy, we should do this. When you guys made me a hater of Larry Fitzgerald, I believe Mike hates Corey Davis.

Fine. Fine. I hate his draft value in the sixth. You said he's being drafted as the 27th? Wide receiver, yes. And you believe he'll finish where? I believe that he will finish under the wide receiver 27. Yeah. I don't know. It's tough. Yeah. I understand. Yeah, certainly you make the case statistically for what he's sustained. It's just a matter of, do you believe that Corey Davis is the same thing he's had? And do you believe that Matt LaFlorant? You know,

I like Matt LaFloran. Every statistical argument against Jared Gough was against him last year until he had a year that was better than that. So if you mix LaFloran Davis. Right. But even for Jared Gough, I don't think you're paying a lot for Davis. That's the problem I have with the bust. In the sixth round? No. Yeah. 27th wide receiver off the board with perceivably top 1516 upside to me. Would you disagree that's the upside?

No, I won't. No, I'm not disagreeing with that. Like I said, the variance is very high for Cory Davis. Yes, and every fantasy owner out there has to make a decision on him. And you're making one right now, which is, I do respect that. I actually thought I'd be really upset about Cory Davis being picked here. That's why I posted a picture of you with a giant head on Twitter. But the reality is, look, you make that argument on what he's been able to sustain, and depending on what you believe about Mariotta and Richard Matthews and the...

the wide receivers he's had, look, I get it. Corey Davis hasn't done anything other than a couple of playoffs games. And I am not of the ilk that says, well, he's never done it so he isn't going to do that. I hate that argument. It's just when I'm breaking down the numbers, it doesn't make sense. And it's not only a wide receiver to wide receiver comparison in the sixth round. Also going there, Evan Engram, I would rather have Evan Engram. You die on another hill in the six round.

Yes. Okay. I'm going to stay on the same team. My boss is Derek Henry. And this one just stands out to me immensely because he's going, depending on your league format, somewhere between the end of the second and the end of the third round. That's where he's going. That's too hot. The Titans, in case you're wondering, in case your eyes were closed, in case you were wearing whatever glasses Jason's wearing where you can't see out of them, they could not run the ball last year. Okay?

In the first half a game, spanning 500 carries for that offense, Henry averaged 3.1 a carry. The only player in the entire NFL worse than him was DeMarco Murray, who averaged 3.0. So the two worst runners, when they tried to establish the offense across 500 plus carries, were on the same team.

He was stuffed. Derek Henry was stuffed on 40% of his third and short carries. That's the fourth worst in the last two years. That is just. He presents himself to be the third and short monster. How is that happening? I mean, like, I'm not arguing the stat. He is a month, literally a monster of a man. He's a creature of the on third and short form. How can you not?

Convert. He needs a head of steam. Don't worry. Here's who is worse than him, guys. Good company. Jeremy Hill, Terrence West, Doug Martin, Lamar Miller. That's the ragtag bunch he gets to go around town with. Okay. Hey, but at least he's going to catch the ball. Those four players are 100% cooked. They're done. They're finished. They're overdone. I hold out judgment on Lamar Miller. Sure. Sure. He's been done for years. They say all the right. Look.

They say all the right things about it, right, this offseason. And look, DeMarco Murray was done, so they let him go. They said everything about Derek Kennedy, and then they went out and spent money on the most expensive free agent running back to bring him in there, to be a supplement. I don't think they really believe that Derek Henry is going to give them enough each and every game. And I think you have to believe right now that he will, and you're drafting him three rounds ahead of Dionne Lewis, two rounds ahead of Dionne Lewis. I just don't get it.

The odds of him delivering that value to me are low. Now, much like Corey Davis, he could give you 12 touchdowns because he's enormous. But apparently on third and short, he's not getting in the end zone. So I have my hesitancy about Derek Henry. I see him as a bus candidate. I love the pick. I would absolutely qualify him as a bus candidate, especially for where he's going within the running back rankings. My problem is the draft price. I think.

I'm on the side of, I think Henry's going to be good for fantasy this year. But if you're right in that range for the running backs, you're talking Rashad Penny, Alex Collins, Kenyon Drake is in there, Darius Geis. I mean, I think four of those guys I would rather have over Derek Henry to pay at that draft price. All right, Jason, now we're talking. Now you're going to bring up a name that I just, I think I've heard the argument before, but I,

I do oppose you in this. Sure, sure. And look, I have a tweet from a couple months ago that talked about this player. It's kind of darken here under these shades. I'm talking about shady. I'm talking about LaShawn McCoy. I have a tweet where I actually have a pair of sunglasses.

From from LaShawn McCoy's brand. He has a shady raised pair of sunglasses. You're going to want to put those on this year while you watch. Oh, come on. Yeah, because here's the thing with LaShawn McCoy. I tweeted out that, man, I just really want to hate him, but there's just no foreseeable way for him to not have 315 touches unless he gets injured. So I will grant you.

the fact that he is going to get the work if he doesn't get injured. I just don't think we're going to be happy with the results. I think injury could be a realistic outcome. And I, you know, here's my argument. Okay. A lot. Hold on. I am having trouble. Let me just do this. Judge Giamati, are you there? Yes, sir. Are you listening to all of this? Yes. Can I please register a formal objection?

Oh, okay. Yeah. Can it be on record? A formal objection Thursday, June 14th. I want to return to this objection later in life. Sure. I'll do just about anything. We should get a ruling here in a little bit. Here's a thing. A lot's been made, you know, time and time and time again about age 30 is the death age for running backs, right? I'm not sure that's exactly how it's worded. Well, it's the age where, you know, running back's career, just their fantasy production.

falls off a cliff. Now, in general, there's a lot of data to support this. If you dive a little deeper, depending on how you dive, are you looking at carries? Are you looking at volume? Some reports might say, well, it's actually 31 is the age where their fantasy production really falls off, although maybe it's 29, if you say a minimum of 150 carries. But the point is valid that there's a lot of data that supports fantasy production around the age 30.

even for Superstar Hall of Fame caliber, Sean Alexander. I knew that name was coming. Well, you knew what's coming for a reason. And he's not the only one. He didn't mention him in Smith. Just Sean Alexander. There's a lot of people that do that. Now, other studies have shown, okay, it's not about age.

It's about volume. Volume has much more to do with it than age does. That's why guys like Fred Jackson can do more late in their career because they didn't have the volume on their legs. And the number fire did this incredible deep dive study a couple years ago where they showed that there is a number out there that is really dangerous for a lot of players. And it's whenever they're rushing carries crosses 1,800. The following season,

their efficiency dies. That's the end. And here's the deal. This past season, Shady crossed 1,800 carries. So that's just to say, that's not a guarantee, but it's to say that historical data says that when you hit around age 30, by the way, he turns 30 in about a month, and when you cross 1,800 carries, by the way, he's crossed 1,800 carries this past season, those are historical data points for when the fall might come.