10 Tips & Tricks to Win Your Fantasy Football League in 2022 - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/12

safe high floor guys. There are your Hunter Henry's, or I'm sorry, I'm sorry, not Hunter Henry. Renfro? Hunter Renfro, thank you. The brain does what the brain does. Hunter Renfro is a pretty safe PPR guy. Now last year, he ended up as a top 12 wide receiver because all the injuries around him. He's still going to be very involved in fantasy. He's going to be okay. but he is not the type of pick that is going to win you a championship. And you have to change your mentality to being okay finishing absolutely last place in your league if you want to win the championship. Get the gold. Once you win the championship is forever. Your name's on the plaque. Your name's on the trophy. You've gone to fantasy champs. You've gotten your belt and you wear it every day. That's what keeps your pants up. Is your championship belt? Yeah, you need a belt.

We have a lot of data. Big belt loops. We have a lot of data. Matt DeSorbo wrote a great article about injecting volatility into your weekly lineup. He also had an article, and we brought this up a little bit on the live show, talking about stacking a quarterback with a wide receiver. And it proved that, and this is, we know that that's great for best ball, but what about in our redraft leagues, our home leagues? Because those boom-bust players, it seems like you're going to lose as often as you win. But that isn't actually the case. You win more than you lose with the players who have big performances and bad performances. On a large enough sample size, it is a mathematical advantage to have the big boom players. Here's a couple examples of where you might be in your draft around the same ADP and two different ways you could go. Quarterback. Matthew Stafford or Trey Lance? Who's safer? Stafford. Dude just threw for 40 touchdowns was the top 12.

pick, he's got Sean McVeigh, but he doesn't boom. He does not go out there and rush for 80 yards, which is like throwing for 7,000, have two rushing touchdowns and have an extra passing touchdown or two. Trey Lance in the same spot has those weeks that will just crush an opponent, be a top three weekly finish, and you get the W. At running back, you've got Two guys here, David Montgomery or Travis E.T.N. David, you say, okay, well, David Montgomery, we've seen it before. We know he's good. But the thing is, is his upside is not really something that is otherworldly with this current version of the Bears, Justin Fields, no passing weapons. He's not really a high volume.

receiver. Travis E.N. is an explosive athlete. He's a first round draft pick. He's playing with his college quarterback. We haven't seen it yet. It might feel scary to take Travis E.T.N. over David Montgomery. But if both of them hit their ceilings, Travis E.T.N. could be a superstar this year. We don't know the health of James Robinson. Okay, he's running straight lines at camp. Great. But he might be gone. Take the swing on a guy who could finish as a top 10 back. Jacobi Myers or Cadarius Tony. Jacobi's clearly been the number one in camp. He should have positive touchdown regression coming his way, but that he doesn't have the talent, the physical ability. When I'm talking about high volatility and aiming for upside and aiming for breakout players, probably the number one thing I'm looking for is the actual athlete themselves. How young are they? How explosive are they? What can they do that other players can't do that could really propel them?

You watch Cadarious Tony. He's a jitterbug out there. He's kind of Tyreek Hill-esque in the sense that he can catch the ball and make three NFL defenders just look stupid. Jacoby Myers is a good route runner, but he's not going to do that. And you started this by saying, look, the champ of the league ends up with a crazy breakout player or two. So you're not necessarily advising. Look, you look at every pick in your entire draft top to bottom and you're taking the riskiest player possible, like betting on 11 penny stocks to hit. You're saying don't just go mutual funds throughout your draft. Yeah, it's not, yeah, I mean, it's a good point. Like, you don't want to just go nuts and say, who's the riskiest pick every round? What you're looking for is who has an avenue for a crazy breakout? You might be on the clock and there isn't a player there at that range that really has that. But if there is.

Take that guy, swing for the fences, and grab the explosive young athlete that could break out. Number six. All right, simple. We'll call this one catch and release. And it has to do with how you approach the back part of your draft. You should be focused on finding players that will reveal themselves as real or fake as quickly as possible. It is kind of a piggyback on some of Jason's points here. I am not going to spend the last two, three picks of my draft taking old veterans that have no upside that will not reveal themselves or players with injuries if I don't have an IR spot that are going to sit there on my bench and in my mind during draft season, I'm going to pretend like I'm going to use them. And then one week into the year, the reality is we are all looking for waiver wire opportunities in week one.

So you need to draft players that you get to know did I hit on this potential breakout ASAP. You don't clog your roster with veterans. You look for some of those upside players. Examples. At the wide receiver position, you can look at a player like Jalen Tolbert in Dallas. Is he integrated into the offense? Is this a step forward for KJ Osborne? You might know that week one. Rondale Moore. A lot of talking camp about being used in Arizona. You'll know it on week one. And I don't, the way you evaluate this is not necessarily that Rondale Moore goes out and has a 24 point fantasy week. It's that Rondell Mell goes out there and gets a ton of snaps and is a part of the offensive game plan. This also applies to wide receiver rooms that are very murky and unknown, the chief's wide receivers, the Packers wide receivers. You take a late shot on somebody like a Romeo Dobbs and say, what if he hits? You know, the odds are that,

you know, probably two out of, you know, 10 are going to be a player that surprises you with their involvement. But the point is, is you want to make a decision as fast as you can so you can move on. David and Joku, Gerald Everett, at the tight-in position. Rahim Mostert. Nobody really knows what his involvement is going to be in this offense. We have this, you know, Chase Edmonds looks like he's locked in, but is Rahim Moster going to be a big part? Is it going to be Sony Michelle? You know, Khalil Herbert. Is the team going to go to the map for David Montgomery again? Or is Herbert going to split work with him? So you want to look at surprise situations with upside, not waste your picks on players that you know have a safe, comfortable floor that you really are just going to drop anyways. Yeah, I think the big important part of that is the dropping part. Grab a guy that you don't care at all about kicking him to the curb so that.

you have the freedom to do that. Well, and to be, to be honest, working back into the trade mentality, look, we are an emotional bunch, the fantasy community. Yes. Very fragile. If you hit on one of those upside players, there's a compelling narrative for them to be involved all year, and suddenly a two-for-one happens instantaneously because you can wrap one of those. Rondale Moore blows up in a week one. You pair Rondale Moore with David Montgomery. Maybe you go get. a higher upside running back right away to start the year and cash in on that promise, right? If, you know, Jarvis Landry has a nice week one, that's not a compelling trade chip, right? Jarvis Landry, we've been there, we've done that. So that's one way to look at it. Number five. Tonight is the night. We'll fight till it's over. Oh, boy. So we put our hands up like the ceiling can't hold us. Oh, boy. These three tips from us back to back to back.

Well, I mean, they work perfectly in sync that we're all talking about the ceiling and going for it and not trying to not lose. Try to win. When you are in your draft and when you are hitting the waiver wire, take other people's backup running backs or perceived backup running backs. Don't take your. Oh, goodness, the voice of public opinion. But Mike, I've got Joe Mixing and if he goes down, don't I want his backup? You would, but now you're just in a neutral, not only a neutral situation, you're probably, you've already taken a hit. Like at that point, you're going to, you've gotten worse, haven't I? You certainly have gotten worse. So you have bigger problems on your hand. Puberty for years for the voice of the public opinion. One of these days I'm going to get here in funny places. So, like, if after week one, you have Joe Mixer and, and something terrible, unfortunately, happens. You got Chris Evans. You're like, good, I'm.

Net neutral. Your team has not really gotten better. You're trying to not lose. Meanwhile, the team that grabbed Chris Evans at the back of the draft just to see what happens through the first few weeks, all of a sudden now, they have a plug and play running back to their team just got way stronger. So it's looking at the balance of. It's interesting because most people out there want to ensure they're running back. which ensures maybe net neutral if you're lucky. Right. Whereas you're saying if you hit on somebody else's backup, it's a net positive to your team because you're adding a hard to find position to an already good roster. Exactly. And look, as we get through the season, once, when you're getting into the fantasy playoffs, we'll be talking about it on this podcast. Please subscribe, follow and we will be talking about it. There is a time in the season where we start to prepare for the playoffs. And at that point, I like to put my backup running backs,

on my bench because they're like as you get into the playoffs finding a player at that caliber should something go wrong nearly impossible yeah there's risk aversion at that point but at the beginning of the season for the first half you're trying to establish that your team is going to dominate and just squelch everybody in the league it's also torturous when you have somebody else's backup that hits yes and they don't have them so i like And so Alexander Madison, no, I'm not, if I have Dalvin Cook on my team, and that's super risky because Dalvin Cook, we feel like Madison's one of the better insurance running backs in the league, but just he's not going to help you win if you have Dalvin Cook. Brooks, you have an interesting point on this that you were just sharing. Oh, yeah, that's a bit in me many times where I draft.

the backup to my stud running back and then every week I'm too afraid to drop them because this is the week my guy goes down and then I will regret it. Absolutely. Thank you, Brooks. Fear-based drafting doesn't work. Another good point of now your roster is clogged. If you're going to make that move, you better be committed to that safety throughout the entire season because Brooks is right. Now you can't make a waiver ad. Because you go, oh, what if my running back gets hurt? This might be the weak. Much easier to drop someone else's running back. You don't have the same fear. But also, much easier to then use Andy's two-for-one deal-making and say, I was going to drop this guy anyway. Let me add him as a throw-in trade piece to the Joe Mixen manager. Yes. And now you've got a lot more value to your team than just your backup who sits there and waits. Especially like.

We're picking on Joe Mixon. We don't mean to do that. But like if Joe Mixon doesn't get hurt, hurt, but gets shook, gets dinged up, leaves the game for a couple snaps, you go to that manager like, hmm, seems like you probably should have protected yourself in that Joe Mixon pick. I've got his backup. Let's work out a two for one here, you know, just in case. So there's when you take other people's backup running backs. You open up a world of possibilities and upside for your team instead of just a real safe. I'm in the far right lane and go in the speed limit. Insurance policy. Exactly. Rip their throats out. Oh, what? Okay, McGruber. Number four. Speaking of ripping. Throats. That's a turkey. I call this the running back rip cord.

This is a... You don't have a sound effect for this one? I don't. I... What? I know. I found a rip-cord quote that I couldn't quite grab from four Christmases, but anyways. Great story. No, no, no, I don't want to hear more about this. Okay, well, it was Vince Bond. He's in a car. Anyways. I have a personal reminder as a player, not as an analyst, and my Slackbot reminder set to go off after week one in the NFL. And I figured, if I think this tip is good enough for myself, the Footland should know about this tip. And I'm going to do that right now. Running backs who see fewer. Hold on. Let me set my Slack bot up. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, yeah. Get your typing figures ready. Running backs who see fewer than 13 carries in week one, tend.

to suck on the season. And that just point blank. And I know that sounds kind of like, well, that can't really be universally true. If we're talking about wanting running backs who make an impact in fantasy, in 2021, only one running back hit 1,000 yards or 10 touchdowns with fewer than 13 carries in week 1. It was Ezekiel Elliott who had a low volume week 1 and then barely got to 1,000 yards. So you can say, well, okay, that was last year. Is this actually a sticky stat? Since 1999, only 12% of players with 12 carries or fewer in week one went on to hit 1,000 yards or 10 touchdowns. 44% of players with 13 plus carries hit those numbers. Since 2011, the more modern NFL, guys who see fewer than 13 carries in week 1 average 465 rushing yards and 3.3 rushing touchdowns all season. 70% of them.

score four touchdowns or fewer. The only exceptions to this, that 12.5% that do hit, they are almost always known, bona fide superstar studs, like Zeke last year. You already knew he was a great back. He ended up with slightly fewer carries than you thought in week one, and he went on to have a decent seasons. The only examples of guys who have done this the last few years, Alvin Camara, he's done it twice, he's an efficiency king. We already knew this. This wasn't his rookie year. This is after we knew. Dalvin Cook did it and Zeke. We know that those guys are going to be fine, but everyone else, all the hopefuls, the middle tier running backs, they don't work out. That's what jumped out to me when you were making, when you were sharing that was if I'm going into week one and I'm hopeful about kind of a more ambiguous running back. And then they don't give that level of work.

That's going to put an extra layer of maybe I cash in on that promise and somebody else takes that chance of hitting the 12% instead of me. Yeah. And so the rip court is cut bait. Trade these guys. If they don't get to that mark, trade them early. And on the flip side, maybe there's running backs that do get the, like Najee Harris last year. He had 16 carries. Only 45 yards had a terrible first week. It just wasn't good for fantasy. But he hit that number, went on to have an awesome year. Elijah Mitchell surprised us with 19 carries. He hit that 13 carry threshold. Went on to be awesome. On the flip side, the guys who didn't, didn't. And so for this year, the backfields I'm monitoring, Kansas City. Does Clyde get 13 carries this week? My biggest one, my man, my dude, Breece Hall. Bruce Lightning. He's got to hit that 13 week one. I'm going to be so scared if he comes out and gets fewer than 13 carries. You got Atlanta and that backfield, Washington, Gibson, Antonio Gibson.

And then the Seattle, Rashad Penny Kenneth Walker, look at that number after week one. Bit of a barometer for the running back position. Number three. I don't want to get dynasty players thinking. So I've got a dynasty tip for you at number three here. And it's all about cashing in at the running back position, which is one of the most difficult things to do emotionally in a dynasty league. Yes, but be brave. Letting go of your prize possession, your RB1. The more I think about it, the more I realize Dynasty fantasy football at the running back position is a lot like the running back position in the NFL. We always talk about the scarcity being the reason running backs go high in redraft leagues. But in Dynasty leagues, shelf life, it's short, guys not hitting their potential. It happens all of the time. We have a great article up on the website, the life cycle of a dynasty running back.

by Marvin Elquin, who said 68% of running back one seasons happen before age 27. So statistically you see a sharp decline, age 28 plus. You may have the best running back in all of football right now, but I promise you you won't have that forever. Age 24, age 25, that is the all-time high value for a dynasty running back. And trading a player in dynasty a year too early is a lot better than a year too late. In fact, we've played Dynasty for a really long time, and I couldn't think of a situation in our leagues or any of the ones I play in where the person trading for the top of market running back has really been happy long term in a Dynasty League. The player might be great for another year, but if you move them at their peak and you get a haul, you got value for that player. And, you know, you have extreme examples like Todd Gurley and David Johnson, who dropped off the map.

really fast. But you also have players like Nick Chubb and Saquan Barkley who really never hit dynasty levels that you wanted when you traded for them. Like Chubb has been good. Saquan certainly hasn't delivered on what you would have had to give up to get him a couple of years ago. So the risk is tremendous in holding these players, these running backs too long in a dynasty league. It's very rare to... to get that super perennial league winning running back. And the haul that you can get, Andy, I know you said the example, you traded Todd Gurley years ago off of his, when he seemed like, it's hard to remember in hindsight, but he was unstoppable, the best asset in fantasy football. Untouchable, yeah. You couldn't even trade to get him because he was so good. You traded him for a younger Delvin Cook plus a ton of picks.

That turned out great. I ended up trading him for a younger, later in his career for a younger running back and a pick that became Brees Hall. So you've got guys like Jonathan Taylor right now who's 23 years old have the next two years of dominance. And at that point when he is 25 years old and he is on top of the world and he seems untouchable, the amount that you can get in Dynasty, the pick haul that you will get and you'll feel bad letting him go. It's a good move. Yeah. Yeah, you have to be brave, like we said. Number two. As the temptations once said. Oh, boy, more lyrics. To get water from a faucet, you've got to turn it. And if you want my love, you got to earn it. And I'm talking about targets. Targets? Earning targets. I was trying to connect the wires. Because targets, Andy.

are in earned statistics. Yeah, I'm with you now. And I want to talk about targets per route run. We kind of introduced this on our podcast. We're not saying we are the first people to come up with this metric, but just starting to utilize this metric more and more this past year. And so I want to bring it up again because the thing is you don't just luck into 100 targets. You earn them. It's a skill. You are getting open. And the way that we look at them, you know, Targets as a raw number. Okay, that's not bad. Target share as most fantasy football players, you're pretty used to that terminology and that statistic at that point. It's a step in the right direction. But it's not always apples to apples. Which is percentage of team targets. Yeah, yes. So the attempts, how many targets did a player get that percentage?

But the target share is not always apples to apples. This is just another way, a deeper dive that you can go with the target metric. So last year, Terry McLaurin, 126 targets. Hunter Renfro, 124 targets. Okay, their raw total is very similar. Terry McLaurin, a 24% target share, 21% for Hunter Renfro. You're like, okay, well, that's easy. Terry McLaren is just such a better wide receiver then, right? Okay, well, now look at the targets. per route run. So when Renfro is actually running a route, 23% of the time he got a target, which is that those are absolutely elite numbers. Those are on pace with Keenan Allen, Jalen Waddle, and McLauram was only at 21%. So just for reference for the baseline of the metric, anything above 20% of the targets per route run. That is good for a wide receiver. 25 is great and 30% is insane.

And this won't shock you. But guys like Cooper Cup, Devante Adams, and Antonio Brown, those are the three wide receivers that hit the 30 plus targets per route run, share. Like, this is why we were, this metric, why we were so into Antonio Brown in the preseason of last year into the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Like Antonio Brown joined that team halfway through. Wasn't a full-time player, but just when he was on the field. he was always getting targeted. And this felt like this is going to translate. If Antonio Brown gets more snaps, he's going to be dominant for fantasy football. And he was. Antonio Brown was on his way to being incredible before the shirtless gallivanting, which he just, I don't know if you caught the tweet. Oh, man. But Antonio Brown loves him, loves me some me, as Terrell Owens once said. His greatest regret is he couldn't watch himself play. Yes.

Like as a fan, as a fan, live. Because when he watches the tape, it's not the same experience that the fans are getting in the stadium. Sensational. I really relate to that, but go on. Sensational tweet. So this year to take this metric even further for the foot clamp, we're going to have a weekly article highlighting these things. And I think that this is a fantastic piggybacking for what we were talking about. Andy was saying, you know, these wide receivers at the end of the draft. Are you going to hold on to them? Are they involved? Just the raw snaps that they're getting on the field? Look at their targets per route run. Are they earning the target when they actually run a route, earning that quarterback trust and kind of marking to us if they see an uptick and work, this player could really start to explode for fantasy football. So here's a couple of players that I want to highlight. So this past year, you had Cadarious Tony.

27% of his routes, he got a target. Like, he was outrageous. And the same with Elijah Moore, which, I mean, these two guys are hitting so many boxes of second year player, showed us what they could do on the field, targets per route run, like play in New York. Yeah, sort of for a New York team. Yeah. That's not in New York. And one that's going to be shocking to you, Johnny Smith, when he actually ran a route. The plan was Johnny. 27% of the time when he ran around, he got a target. And combine that with the news out of New England that Jono Smith right now, it's camp. But in camp, he is, what, number two? He's a target leader. He was either number one or number two in targets. And the reason.

So they paid Johnny Smith a lot of money. He's a very good athlete and a very good player. The reason he disappointed for fantasy last year was because he was so darn good at blocking. He was a blocker. When he ran a route, he was utilized. He just, he wasn't used in that fashion a lot. And that could be the same thing that happens this year. It could. But the Patriots are installing an entirely new run scheme. I don't know why. People can't figure it out, but they are trying to put in the Shanahan system in the running game. And while tight ends certainly block, they can go out a little bit more from that system. We've seen that with George Kittle. And so, John, who is an interesting name. Obviously, in your home leagues, I mean, you could get him off the waiver wire. But pay attention week one, but in, you know, underdog when you're drafting three tight ends.

You can get him in your last round. And then meanwhile, on the other side of the coin, you have Devon Singletary, just catastrophic. The running back for the Buffalo is 13%. I mean, they targeted Chase Edmonds, pass catching running back this offseason. They tried to get J.D. McKissick, Smoochus, pass catching running back. And what they do in the draft, James Cook, pass catching running back. He's going to be very good. So just be careful there with Devon Singletary. And of course, Robbie Anderson's numbers were. terrible as well. Either way you spell his name, bad targets per route run. So we, like I said, we will have a weekly article highlighting guys that we're looking at using this metric, just a deeper dive here for the Footland. Number one. Well, what's her number one tip this year? Our number one tip, Footland, be resilient. Things happen both in the draft that you don't like.

And in fantasy that you don't like, breaks won't go your way always. You can lose. You can start the season off 0 and 1, 0 and 2, 0 and 3. Be resilient. Don't tilt. Have a plan. The plan in the draft can come from mapping it out. You know what I mean? If you're a man of your word, Jason. Thank you. Should have stopped already. Keep going. All right. That was the one. That's bad. Yeah, it's terrible. Somebody wrote that. That's what blows my mind. Some musician. Are there lyrics on a piece of paper like the official ones? I've got it. There was a musician in a studio just chisling away on the ivory. And they're like, yep, that's it. Send it in. Send it in. But in the season, once you get going, you're.