Fantasy Football - AFC North Breakdown + Partying Thoughts - Podcast for 7/3

Can have what you like, but you only get DK because they don't have anybody else to catch the football. I got John who now. I mean, you don't, they don't make a trade for John who unless they plan to give him, you know, at least a good 600 yards or so. Oh. For sure. Yeah. I mean, yeah, we call that. Yeah, I mean. That was not an endorsement of John. No, I realize it. Yeah. And Friamuth is there and they'll run to tight ends. And we talked about it on Tuesday. But, no, I like Metcab. I'm still unsure of what the work distribution is going to be with Warren and Caleb Johnson. Yeah. That's still an issue. I think you will start the season with Warren as the starter. Give him that. He's a better pass protector for sure. You know, they're going to, Aaron Rogers is going to love Jalen Warren. But I do think as the season goes along, Caleb Johnson and his ability to have explosive plays out of the backfield.

will just be too important for the offense to keep on the side. I'm looking at their schedule. They'll probably start three, you know. Who do they got? Well, they're going to play the Jets. So Aaron Rogers. Oh, Revenge. Revenge. So they're going to play the Jets on the road, but that's a very winnable game. Then they're going to play at home against Seattle and Sam Darnold and whatever they've got figuring out in Seattle. And then they're going to go to New England in week three. So. Yeah. Oh, man. A loss to the Jets in week one would just be. Oh, my gosh. It would be. Oh, theater. Oh, theater. Like I'm the Steelers. I'm not wishing ill upon you, but. Yeah. For the sake of fire. The media would lose their minds. And it would be amazing. Out of curiosity, because I get accused for some reason of hating the Steelers, um, despite endorsing. Which is strange. Yeah. But I just, just.

maybe the deucers alley crew can give me like after that conversation about the Steelers did it come across pro or negative army yeah yeah is that did that come across as we were anti Steelers or pro Steelers I'm gonna say anti I was I was leading pro okay well I'm sure I know how it will come across the Steelers fan I think to Jason with your point I think the easiest thing to spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers is Caleb Johnson will be drafted before Jalen Warren. Warren will be used more in the first couple of weeks. Everyone's going to lose their minds. I drafted Caleb Johnson to be Houston is going to be. Hold on, man. Hold on. Wait a second and let let the rookie cook. So long as Aaron Rogers doesn't do what we all know he's going to do and change the plays at the line to throw the ball all the time. I mean, the reason the reason that I have.

over this offseason bemoaned Aaron Rogers and said this is going to be the Steelers' first losing season in forever because I love Mike Tomlin is because Mike Tomlin with this roster and a different quarterback who's not changing plays and throwing it like crazy at the line would just win games. This is adding, adding Ramsey, and I'm sure they will come and sign T.J. Watt, they'll get a deal done there. But if you've got T.J. Watt and J. that defense is going to be really, really good. So now if you've got the running game going with Caleb Johnson, with two tight ends, you're going to have a bully offensive line, really three tight ends with Washington there. Oh, that's amazing. That all works well when you're winning the game. That's what I'm saying. But they don't. I mean, the problem with the Steelers over the last, I mean, it was the problem with Baltimore.

The problem with the Steelers the last few years is picket, it's Russ. It's great when you're winning at the beginning of a game. You can't come back and win a game. That's been the problem. They don't have an explosive enough offense to like get back into a game and give Aaron Rogers the shot. I mean, I love what Rogers did for Adams and Wilson fantasy-wise last year. That's why I like D.K. Because he's one guy. But, I mean, this is going to be a wild deer because you have to compete with Baltimore and the next team we're talking about the Cincinnati Bengals.

And the Bengals were 9 and 8 last year. They went on that big run. They started the year 1 in 4 and all of those games. They were the opposite of the Chiefs. The Chiefs just kept winning games by any means necessary to the point where we rolled our eyes into the back of our head and cursed the fact that they were going to go to another Super Bowl, which they did. The Bengals just kept losing games and finding ways to lose games. Seven of the eight losses they even had last year were against playoff teams. This was the most...

Bad luck season ever in, you know, maybe bad luck's the wrong phrase, but tough luck. Yeah, that's fair. So where are the Bengals on the, and you're not going to sit here and talk about their defense, gee, I know that. You're not going to talk about their defense. Oh, I'm going to very much talk about their defense. But not like the Steelers. Of their offense is the fact that they're going to have to score 33 points to win a game. So what are the, what's the chance that Burrow has to do exactly what he did last year? You're going to go 35 plus touchdowns. I think the chances are very high. The, the Bengals.

I don't know that they have changed their defense enough to make it good. They might have done some stuff to make it not one of the worst in the league. But they are going, and when people play against the Bengals, they know they've got to score a lot of points. They're more aggressive because of Joe Burrow. So the combination of bad defense with this great offense, bringing T. Higgins back. There's also been some nice buzz around Burton, their rookie last year. who was a knucklehead and just missing practices. And now he's like putting in the work this offseason. Chase Brown became a revelation the second half of last year after the Zach Moss injury when they started winning those games. I think they're going to utilize him a lot. The Bengals offense is like, this is the team I want the most. Are they and are we even going to have a first round defensive pick?

signed or a or Hendrickson. They probably will sign Hendrickson. They'll probably sign both. Trade him. I was going to say for fantasy purposes, you'd like to see them throw like seven guys out there. 100%. Yeah. So, look, Burrow, upper national line of fantasy quarterback. And when, like, when's the last time we had Burrow actually be really healthy in the off season? Never. Like, I think it's been. That's why they start slow in part. Been forever. Yeah, right now he's been healthy, says it's the best he's ever felt. To be fair, training camp hasn't started. I expect him to pull something in camp. You still hate Zach Taylor? Yes. Yes. I think this team would do... It's wild, man. I think this team would do much better without Zach Taylor. I think he's a great coach. I think he's a good enough coach to keep them where they are. Seventh and points per game, ninth and yards per game, second and pass percentage. We love that. Yeah. You know, it's going to be really difficult for...

It's just difficult for any fantasy wide receiver to repeat at number one. I mean, Jamar Chase will have as good a chance as anybody, but it might not be him, but he's going to be your best odds. And that's how you draft. That's what rankings are about. Exactly. We don't rank players because we know they're going to finish at that spot. We rank them there because they have the best chances. And it's not if Jamar Chase has, if Jamar Chase plays the whole season, like even if he doesn't finish number one, he's still top four. I mean, like, he will not fall on his face. He's just too good. And Joe Burrow is just too good. That's why the pick is feels, it feels good. Yeah, no one's going to be sad with Jamar Chase this year, even if he's not the number one wide receiver. And I don't think anybody's going to be sad with T. Higgins. You know, T. Higgins, we've talked about it for years. The issue has always been health. Will he be on the field? If he's on the field, he's great. If you look.

In 2024, the numbers between T. Higgins and Jamar Chase, Jamar Chase is like literally the first pick in fantasy football. T. Higgins was right with him on almost every metric. You look at the target percentage. You know, it's 26 to 23%. You look at targets per route run, 25% to 24%, yards per route run, 2.4 to 2.1, like first read targets. Yes, Jamar Chase. Do games played. 34% to 29%. We're getting high T. Higgins this year, man. Higgins is always, he's always been an amazing splits guy. Yes. That's T. Higgins world. He just needs to be healthy and on the field. Do you believe that T. Higgins will finish his career never playing a full season? Yes. Really? Yeah. I don't. I don't think that. It's rare for people. His rookie year makes you look real dumb.

Well, did they not play 17 in 2020? No. No, they didn't, right? When did that change? That was kind of a dunk, Mike, but also you said his rookie season. Yeah, that's right. So it's kind of like a reverse dunk. You know what I mean? Like you dunked on the wrong basket. I am speaking literally of just going forward. I don't think. Yeah, it's very unlikely to me just based on the injury history and the way he comes off the, I mean, he played 12. He probably limped through three of them. So, no, but that's not, I'm not saying T. Higgins, I'm not counterpointing any of your stuff. That's just if he played every week and had the same numbers as Chase, he would be drafted where Chase is drafted. And he never is and never will be because he doesn't and won't. That is the very end of what you said is the only thing that I take umbrage with where I, I don't believe that past injuries are indicative of future injuries in most cases. I mean, there are.

We have so many examples in the past of injury prone players that then all of a sudden aren't injury prone player. He's a good example of an injury prone player that's always injured. That's what he is. He's an injury prone player that's always hurt. When you leave the- He's never finished a fantasy season in the top 17. Jaylon Wada gave you a wide receiver seven-year as the wide receiver team. When you leave the draft only to have right at the end of the draft, they're like, oh, T. Higgins injured his hamstring. So it's rough. I think the 303 for T. Higgins is scary. It's a little bit. We did it too hot to handle up as that he didn't come up. It's a little, it's a little bit on the edge for me. It's, I can see all that. And what makes the 303 difficult is that Chase Brown is also going in the third. And Chase Brown running back 12 right now, he's one of my favorite picks in all of fantasy football this year. Is it, I don't think there's.

anyone who's going to get in his way. And he was absolutely electric. From week nine on, he was the running back five in total fantasy points scored. Only Seekwant saw more total opportunities in that span. Like Zach Moss, I guess he'll be back. And then it's like P-Rine and then they drafted Brooks late. Like there's no one there to challenge Chase. We talked about Chase on the footcast yesterday. Andy and I did. With that depth chart, it's so clear that James, that Chase Brown will be very, very involved. And what he did for Joe Burrough specifically was very important. I mean, when they were winning games down the stretch, a lot of that had to do with Chase Brown and the receiving work that he was doing. If you want to be a top fantasy option, like you said about Derek Henry, you almost always have to have the receiving work. Well, when the.

injury to Zach Moss happened in week eight. The second half of the season, the last eight games that Chase Brown was basically the full-time starter. He was on pace for 93 targets. And he caught 86% of them for eight yards of reception. I mean, he was just so valuable to Joe Burrow in that in that checkdown game. And I don't see that going away. Like from week four. through 17 because he didn't play the final he didn't play week 18 from weeks 4 through 17 he has one game under 10 points and you have like you have multiple smash games in there it's i i love chase brown this year uh just circling back to test my theory here and get your opinions all right t higgins current ADP relative to some of these other players you like garrett wilson more you like t higgins more higgins

Oh, man. Garrett Wilson was slightly better inconsistency last year, percentage-wise, but is a couple of picks later. You like Higgins, Mike? I think we'd all like him over McLaurin. Yeah. Who's going later? Marvin Harrison, Jr. is going later. I'll still take Higgins. Evans, Devante Adams, a couple of the older guys, DJ Moore, Rashi Rice. Yeah, it doesn't seem, when I look at these names, I don't. Very high reward. Yeah, I don't see a bunch of wide receiver names behind Higgins that I like more than Higgins. So maybe that is going in the right spot, but he's, but maybe he's just the right temperature to handle. He is hot and you might burn your hand or if you're cold, this might feel real nice. It's funny because this is, this is a hand warmer? He's like a mug, it's like a mug. He's just like Goldilocks in this thing. Look, this is the highest he's ever gone in his career.

And his ADP? Yes, that's worth saying. Like, T. Higgins has never gone higher. So when you talk about laying the palm fronds over the hole, the end of the year was very good for T. Higgins. And the contract. I mean, and when you look at like one of the questions about Cincinnati, too, is like what happens if one of these guys gets hurt, which has happened? Yeah. In fact, it's happened to one of them a lot over the last few years. It's like, is there a third one or one than the other? Yeah. I mean, is there a wide receiver?

in that Tyler Boyd third position that you like a lot. And to me, it's more, look, they gave Mike Gisicki money. So Gisiki is not somebody I target until one of these guys gets hurt. And then I'm looking at him on free agency and saying, I think I might be able to start him with the team that passes at the level that they pass with the defense that they have. To me, Gisiki is the perfect pivot when one of those, if one of those guys gets hurt. Sure. Yeah, I'm before that. Any other thoughts about the team in terms of range of outcomes for borough or anything else you want to mention? The NFL did its best to try and help the Bengals get off to a strong start with the Cleveland Browns and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Just trying to say like, come on. Of course, they did it last year with the Patriots. Going into Cleveland, that's setting them up. I mean, they went into New England and lost, setting them up to go into Cleveland. But yeah, we.

We have Cleveland, Jacksonville, Minnesota, and Denver. Three out of four on the road. So you talk about slow start potential. That's a little worrisome, actually. Two and two maybe? It sounds like they got to throw a bunch. It does sound like they got to throw a bunch. We'll take a break and we'll talk about Mike's favorite team on the planet. I'm just getting this piece of news after the break here. Kyle letting me know Burrow has won 39% of all games in September. That sounds about right. It feels like a high number compared to our experience. Man, Cleveland was 3 and 14 last year, and their projected win total going into the season was eight and a half. Sean Watson, that didn't work, got hurt towards Achilles. I heard he's on track for like October or something. I don't know why that was in the news, but it was. If I could block Deshaun Watson News from my feed, filtered out. If the Cleveland Browns could block Deshaun Watson News, I think they would.

I bet Stephansky on Twitter. Oh, he's got that filter in there. Oh, he's got him muted. Yeah, yeah, he doesn't let Deshaun know, but he's got him muted. 2025 Vegas went totaled down to five and a half. Ooh. You know. That sounds like they don't think Joe Flacco is starting. We also talk about the outside edges of the strength of schedule. They have the 31st ranked strength of schedule coming up. Wait, does that mean as bad or good? You don't know for sure. I can see. It's bad. I didn't bring it up. It is bad. 30 first ranked. I thought that. Okay. It's bad. Like bad. Like Michael Jackson bad. So bad is good. It is so difficult. They have a difficult schedule. Man, that's bad. You did freeze. You froze.

For a second. You made me question it for a second. Look, I didn't know the answer. I couldn't remember how we put it in. They're favored in one game so far. Against two? Yeah, don't put them on blast. That I need to know. Yeah, Kyle, let us know who their favorite against and what fan base should be. Is it there by week? They are favorite in their buy. Week their favorite in week 14? Yes. Oh yeah, one and a half point favorites. That's got to be New England or something at home. Who is it? Tennessee at home. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Well, look, here's where we're at. 32nd and points per game last year. So we could go up from there. 28th and yards per game. And yet number one in pass percentage. So they passed a ton. James. Thank you. James. Oh. It's wild that you get the number one in past percentage and number 32 in points per game. Like that is, that is the James experience in some ways.

But it's the fansky. We'll give it a go again. They got a new offensive coordinator. James is no longer a part of this team. Neither is stalwart Nick Chubb who had been there forever. No more Elijah Moore. But Joe Flacco's there and Kenny Pickett and Deontay Johnson. Ew. Oh man. Did you guys read those Deontay Johnson? comments. Yes, about him not wanting to go play when it was cold out. Yeah, of like him explaining why he got suspended almost like. Did you see Anthony Richardson replied and was like, I hear you. Bro, I get it. Are you tired or cold? You should probably take a break. But it was just it was so hilarious of like this is Deontay Johnson talking about like, no, no, no. Here's what happened. I didn't want to play because it was cold. I mean, are you guys with me? Are you with me? His what he was trying to explain.

was that he felt that his body was cold and he was going to be bad if they put him out there. Right, because he was looking out for number one. Yeah. He's like, I'm going to put bad tape out there if I go out there. That's probably true. Sometimes you just be like, I don't really want to talk about that. Cleveland has a great defense. They should be able to be in games if they could do anything on offense. We don't know who their quarterback is. And it changes everything. That sentence will be uttered weekly. Yeah, but it changes everything for this team. Like because of who their different quarterback options are, it's so wildly different. If Joe Flacco is there, he's going to air it out a ton. If Joe Flacco is the starter week one, Jerry Judy, David and Djoku, these are good options. If it's Kenny Pickett week one, they're bad options. Let me try. Let's reframe this. Let's try an experiment here, Jason. All right.

This has been, every time we talk about Cleveland, it's like the quarterback, it matters so much. But that's, that might be the trick. That might be the lie. That might be the problem. It's not going to be the same guy all year. So then if we think it matters a lot and it's the guy we like to start the year and that means we draft the players that we like because of that quarterback, it will not necessarily be that quarterback for very long. Right. So in that case, trade them. Yeah, but that you don't get, if you know that Kinney Pick is taking over, Shadour Sanders or Dylan Gabriel, you don't get to trade them. I'm saying if you get the first three weeks of Joe Flacco and Jerry Judy's riding high. Yeah, maybe. You put them on a market. Maybe you could do that with Judy. I agree. But maybe my point being, maybe we want to just avoid and not do the dance. I am fine. You just do that. I am fine avoiding the players on this team minus Quinshan Judkins. I think he's going to be excellent. He's the Nick Chubb replacement, a very.

big, um, you know, athletic, a real super athletic, uh, back. Who are you talking about? Judkins. Oh, I, yeah. Do you, Jason, do you like, uh, let's say they both end up, I don't know, I'll put them both in the fourth or the fifth, whatever, like Caleb Johnson or Judkins, which direction would you prefer? to go. You know, it is funny because you hypothetically said I'll put them in the fourth or the fifth. That makes the difference for me. I'm saying I'm putting them both there. No, I know. But I'm saying if they're both in the fourth, I lean Judkins. And if they're both in the fifth, I lean Caleb Johnson. The reason why is because I think Judkins is the clear week one starter. He's going to get the volume. And if I'm if I have to draft them in the fourth round.

This is a starter on my fantasy roster from week one. I do think towards the second half of the year, Caleb Johnson has the more explosive, you know, better overall fantasy finish. And so if I can wait and have him be, you know, not necessarily one of my two running back starters, and he's my third running back drafted, I'd rather have those two guys, though, are my number one and number two currently ranked rookie running backs. I, one of the reasons that. I don't necessarily get on board. You're saying without Gentie though. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. We did. We delete Genti. We do. We do. We just want a rookie running backs. Yes. Don't take that clip and run. Oh, yeah. We don't count JT as a rookie. No one does. You're just like he's the top five guys. Yeah. That's a good point. Yeah. When we talk about rookie running backs. We bypassed him in those discussions so many times because it's a presupposition. Yeah.

Thank you for that clarifying statement. I think everybody understands that, but if you don't, now you do. Wow. Okay. Do we like Najoku? I do. I'm so torn on him, man. But again, if you want to just bypass the experience and the exposure to Browns, I don't care. I do. I do like Nojoku for where he's going. I think that he's one of the later round targets. You know, that's he's an eighth. He's like at the eight nine turn. So he doesn't cost you much. I know. But I mean, like, he's like, he's going right next to Evan Ingraham. I would rather have David Nogoku. What about? And he's like right next to like Mark Andrews. Yeah, I think I would take Nogoku over all of those. I was starting to say that one of the reasons I'm not, I'm not in the Cedric Tillman as a sleeper category is because Judkins, Judy, and Njoku, I like them all more on a team I don't like. And so at that point, I'm, I'm getting further down the list of, of, you know.

potential week-to-week success. I mean, he had a good three-game stretch, and I don't think he's a bad player. I just don't know what he's going to represent for my team on the year, and I don't think the ceiling's very high because of where he falls in the pecking order, and this team being so bad on offense that I think I would try a better upside offense when I'm taking a dart throw, but I know you guys are kind of... Or at least Jason's been a bigger fan. I like Cedric Tillman. And my issue with Judy is we saw four and a half years of Jerry Judy. And that it wasn't until James Winston took over and was throwing him the ball 10 plus times every single week. And that is part of Cedric Tillman. We haven't. We haven't seen as much Tillman to know. Is he truly a... We've seen so little. Is he truly a starter?

like a fantasy starter. It's a confusing situation. At least Judy had finished in the top 24 at the position on another team with another quarterback. Yeah. That's one of the reasons why actually, and the draft capital and the explosiveness. I mean, you can be on a team of James Winston, but you still have, I mean, putting up 190 catches or whatever is at least. The production was incredible, but man, for Judy had that one year where he was wide receiver 21, but. I mean, other than that, he would, it was rough, like really, really rough. Yeah, he's 8.2 games as rookie year, 6.6 per game. You're talking about points per game? Yeah, points per game. Next year, the 11, great year. He was traded for, though, like he was better than his numbers when they, when they made the trade. Oh, yeah, they, because they're really good at acquisitions. They make the right calls on acquisitions. And that's why Kenny Pickett.

They start the year of Cincinnati, Baltimore, Green Bay, Detroit. Oh, no. That adds to the don't mess with them. Yeah, that's, yeah, that's Flacco starts four games and then everyone's just pissed off and we got to bench him. Or vice versa. I mean, that's the hope. At this point, I'd hope Pickett starts four games because then you can get Flacco for more. How about this? Or Chador starts game five. How about this? Oh and four and I bet my life on it. You're all, you know, man, I would not bet on that Cincinnati week one matchup. Your life is too valuable for, for betting on the Bengals opening hot. Okay, that's fair, but they should be. $20. Yeah. So I'm going to amend what I said earlier of you, you have the first month of great value and then you put Jerry Judy on the trading block based on this schedule.