Good Vibes, Bad Vibes + Waiver Strategy Talk - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/29

thought process of like, you've got to earn it. And if you're going to take that crumagony approach, then make them earn it. You just gave it to them. Yeah, you tell the truth. Yeah, tell the truth. Yeah. Well, Stroud's going to start. And if I had an opportunity to draft the Baltimore defense for week one, I would jump all over that. I like Stroud. I like him being able to emerge as a quarterback, but it's going to be a rough start. Wondale Robinson activated off the PUP, Jameson Crowder released by the Giants. That's at least some good. We've heard nothing about Wondale this entire offseason. And he was like a waiver wire, darling basically last year of it. When is it going to happen? When's Wondale going to be in here and be the guy? Second round pick by the Giants. His tape is, he's so shifty, has his breakout game. And then.

Tears his ACL, I believe, ACL, yes. So it's, I'm not, I haven't turned the page on Wondale, but it's just been an entire offseason not hearing a single thing about him. Yeah, I mean, I have more confidence in Slayton, Hodgins. Oh, yeah, those are the, and Paris Campbell. Those are the starters. Miles Gaskin, goodbye. Oh, the gas man. He has been. He ran out. Release along with Albert Aguebenam. Offseason, darling for a minute, last offseason. tied in for the Broncos. Will Lutz has been traded to those Broncos. There you go. The kicker drama has been pretty wild. Yeah, I mean, the Chargers just named Cameron Dicker, the starter, and let go of Dustin Hopkins. Yeah. I mean, with a name like Dicker, you knew he was going to win the job. You just, you just make him the starter. Why is that?

Rimes with kicker, obviously. Yeah. And Hopkins was traded to the Browns, which the Browns drafted a kicker. They drafted a kicker. Wait, well, like with their seventh round pick? And dunked on people with it. Wait, what was six round pick? I honestly don't remember in my head. It's a fourth. It was a fourth. It's a fourth round picker. And the guy didn't make the team. Like, what are we doing here? What are we doing here? Even the NFL doesn't draft kickers. Okay, okay. That was today's news and notes presented by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USAA.com slash insurance. Come to the waiver wire, presented by NFL Sunday ticket on YouTube. All right, this year, the waiver wire segment, one of the most important, each and every week. We're kicking it off early because we want to talk about some trends and some.

kind of some strategy yeah some philosophical ways to approach it including an article by our very esteemed writer matt de sorbo who went and and looked statistically at unroastered players so players going 13th round or later is what we're calling an unroastered player and those players breaking out early in the season and how you should approach those pickups because i think a lot of times And maybe for good responsibility reasons, people don't jump on their fab budget early. Maybe they want to save it for the rest of the year. But you should read this article and some of the highlights here, unroastered players that break out in week one, historically have a higher points per game total of the rest of the season.

define breakout real quick a breakout we're just saying scored 15 plus points in a half point league so if you get that out of week one and then they become the go-to waiver wire pickup historically speaking those players that have a week one breakout they are better than players that break out later so players that pop here and there throughout the year which those players pop into the waiver wire as well it's more of a trend indication in week one when When that happens. And that doesn't mean that every week one player that scores a bunch of points is not going to regress horribly. That happens all the time. We make fun of the Ogletree situation from years gone by. But they still, on average, score more than players that break out later in the year. So just.

What I do with that information personally is I take that information and say if I have a conviction about a player's performance in week one, which is generally not just looking at the box score and saying it's 15 fancy points because they caught two touchdowns. Normally it's looking at the box score and saying, Wow, this player played 80% of snaps. Or this player lined up in this position that I didn't expect. Or this quarterback was going to this guy. Or this guy was getting separation that I didn't see coming. He's taken a step forward. Or he was the goal line back. All of those type of things. That's what you're looking for in week one. And, you know, we're watching every single game, every single week. So you can come to the waiver wire segment and we could tell you which ones we believe just lucked into touchdowns or whatever and which ones.

Should be good. But the research shows that when they break out in week one, they are better than when they break out in week two, three, four. That's not to say that the best breakout will always come from week one. This is just averages over a long period of time. We've seen it. And so week one is really, really important. That's why a lot of times in the drafting season, we talk about grabbing a player at the end of your draft that you're totally fine cutting. You're just grabbing someone to say, I want to see. if he is in this new projected role or not. And then if not, you cut him because you're going to want to pick up people week one. Yeah, and a good example of that kind of player, you know, this year might be the Paris Campbell. You know, just not knowing what the offensive involvement is, take him with your last pick, cut them if it's not what you think it is. Last year we had a handful of these where week one, you kind of learned something new. Gino Smith was out there on waiver wires, ended up with a solid year. Jamal Williams, like, you know, 17 touchdowns.

He was 46% rostered heading into the year last year and ended up being one of those players that if you had believed early, it paid off in a big way. Garrett Wilson was 60% rostered after week one last year. So that was one that flipped the other direction. Evan Ingram, not rostered heavily in week one. So you want to pay attention to more than just the box score, but know that historically taking a shot on some of these players early, it pays off. And my example from the past was in 2018. And if you've been listening to this show long enough, you know. A kiddle. You know what a kiddle means. And I dropped a kiddle on George Kittle. That was equal to $44 fab dollars. That is aggressive. Very aggressive. And this was after he had nine targets in week one. He flopped in week two and was not good, two catches, 22 yards. And people.

dropped him and victory left the fact that he was terrible. And then he finishes the tight end three on 1336 targets with over 1,377 yards. And I spent heavy because my mindset in that moment was, yes, there is a chance this doesn't work out. But the value to my roster after seeing George Kittles' involvement on the team in a couple weeks was that the value is so immense. Like I could not. acquire this any other way. And so it was worth the 44, and thankfully that one worked out. Yeah. For me, the example that came to mind from kind of a week one, you saw how a player was being used, was Naim Hines in 2020. Sure. He came out week one and was the running back five scored 23 fantasy points. And that was kind of out of nowhere. No one was like drafting Naim Hines, expecting him to be great. I believe he was on my roster, Jason. Well, I mean, experts, sure.

But he was available and he finished the season as the running back 20. It was a bumpy ride. It wasn't super consistent. But what you saw in week one, eight targets. He was super involved in the passing game. He played the majority of snaps. And you go, okay, this is going to be someone who's relevant for fantasy this season. He might not be a superstar, but he will absolutely be relevant. And again, finished the season as the running back 20. You got to go after those guys when the utilization is right. And the player I wanted to bring up. is this is he's a combo platter for us because it is alfred morris of the washington manders yes because he was both the the number one pickup after week one because i think he was like the running back five but if you were locked in like you didn't just do your draft look at your team smile at what you have accomplished log out and say well i'm ready for week one if you kept locked in

all of a sudden the news right before the season went, oh, Alfred Morris is going to be the starting running back for Washington. You didn't know if he was going to be good, but it was the fact that it was such a late piece of information of, this is a starting running back who was on your waiver wire. No one knew who he was until that week or so before the season started. So some people did pick him up right before week one even started. It paid off huge. And, I mean, 1,600 yards, 13 touchdowns later. He was, like, he was the steal of that season. Yeah, and if you pick up somebody early that you do believe in, you do add a trade chip to your team and or you have the ability to trade other players on your team because you've added depth. So there is a flexibility, right? You get the maximum amount of possible output for your team because you didn't wait.

If you hit early, because you've got all of your maximum amount of weeks that you could play that player, you've got a trade chip immediately. And this is not saying go all in. I mean, it goes, players overreact as well. But if you have the conviction about the opportunity combined with the performance, just know that historically those players that do break out early have the longest sustained opportunity. And every week we do, we cover the Waverwire gyms. each and every week players that we're picking up. We have waiver wire rankings on the website now where we put them in order every week so that you get a guide to what to do. And next week we're going to talk about some undrafted gyms. Those are kind of like what Mike is describing in Alfred Morris where it's like you might be done with your draft and there's someone better.

then who you picked at the end. We'll bring up some names next week so that you can pick them up before week one. Yeah, stay locked in. And that just reminded me because he wasn't a week one pickup, but it was I looked at the end of my bench just a handful of years ago. I was like, you know what? I think all this buzz on Darren Waller, it seems like it's turning into something. So I dropped my last pick. Or if you're in a league, I don't think that we've been. talked about this strategy piece. If your league doesn't force you to draft a kicker or a defense, I usually don't. It's not as helpful now that we don't have all four weeks of the preseason, but having two late round guys just stashed, just waiting these last couple weeks of news, see if someone gets an upgrade. Things do happen. So it's nice to have an extra couple chances. But Darren Waller right before week one picked him up, you're like,

Wow, this is like this is a league changing pickup and the year hasn't even started. Yeah, so to give an example of what Mike's talking about, if you don't have to draft the defense or a kicker, instead of grabbing your kicker in the last round that you don't really care about, you could pick up like a Kareem Hunt and just wait and see if he ends up getting a job. Obviously, if he doesn't get a job. Or Lennon, four net. Yeah, four net. You know, just someone that their tides could change really quickly overnight. And then. Obviously, if they don't get a job when it's coming close to week one, then just cut them and pick up a kicker. Yeah, or Dion Jackson, who might be the starting running back for the Colts and no one talks about it. And this is not to say you don't play a kicker in defense. You're just holding these players and then making decisions on your roster and signing a kicker in defense right before week one. Exactly.

All right, thanks again to our sponsor NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube and YouTube TV with NFL Sunday ticket. It's never been easier to keep up with all of your fantasy players for $50 off your subscription. Sign up at YouTube.com slash fantasy footballers, which I am proud to say we have nine televisions set up for week one, and I cannot wait. We're ready. We're ready. Let's get into a couple mailbag questions. Mailbag. Mailbag. Ooh. Voice still isn't there. Yeah, well. I did my best. You did. Okay. If you have a question for the show, you can go to the website, the Fantasy Footballers.com. Click the submit a question button. You can dial the voicemail hotline 302464 TFFB. You can also join our free Discord channel.

which will give you the ability to chat with thousands of like-minded fantasy football players listening to the show and get advice that way as well. Our first question comes from Dylan in San Francisco. What are some lighthearted punishments for last place that can also be done in a league with members in different states? Hmm. So the first thing that came to mind, you would... You would need someone else to go with because you need someone to document it. And, of course, it's way more fun if everyone can be in person, but you can still document it. You've seen a good bit of it this year is forcing someone to go to like a fancy restaurant with a big stuffy as their date. And they just have to endure that whole dinner with a giant teddy bear or whatever. I did see that. Across from them, I thought that that sounds like a delightful.

lighthearted punishment. I just shared with Jason there was a punishment where a gentleman had to go to a kind of like a public area and earn $20. Oh yeah, playing the like the recorder or something. $20 in tips to be released playing the recorder as a fantasy football punishment as well. We do the in-person draft. So we force the last place player. They end up spinning the wheel of water and get 12 cups of water. poured on them in embarrassing ways, and then they draft soaking wet in a sweater. In a turtleneck sweater. Which, from what I've observed, is an unpleasant experience. Mike, you've had to do that. I have had to do it. And how was it? It was, in fact, unpleasant. Okay. Will in Syracuse, which running back would you prefer to draft in the second round? Derek Henry or Josh Jacobs?

It's a 12 team full PPR, and that does change the pick for me. It does. It does for me as well. So that means we're all Josh Jacobs. But let's talk half PPR. That's the format we usually play in. That's much closer. Who would you take Josh Jacobs or Derek Henry in a half PPR in a half PPR in a half PPR? In that event, it's not a wide margin, but I would go Derek Henry. I have Derek Henry in a half PPR one spot higher right now. And... Yeah, it might come down to how the wind is blowing that day. What are your vibes that day? Honestly, that's going to end up a second round pick, right? Probably. Yeah. Or late first. The second round pick. So I am probably one of those players on the back half of the first round, and I might pick based on my first pick. I mean, if I'm being completely honest, that may change it a little bit. So.

What would change? Obviously, if you drafted Devante Adams, then you would want to go Henry. Sure. Yeah, so I think, I feel like Henry is slightly more risky this year. Yeah. With the age. And so if I felt really stable in the first round with my selection, maybe that changes the equation a little bit. I've got Josh Jacobs one spot ahead. So either half PPR or full PPR. I'm going to take Josh Jacobs over Derek Henry. I don't blame anyone for going the opposite. And obviously in a full standard league where pass catching isn't involved, I think we all swing to the Derek Henry side. I like this question from Colby here because this happens in leagues all the time. Colby in Vancouver says, hey, guys, simply put, is Jemir Gibbs too expensive for the first round? I know my league and that's my only chance. And the thing I like about this question,

is the fact that you like Jamir Gibbs and you want him, but you know he's going to be overpaid for. So this is an emotional decision for you because you wanted the chance to draft him. But your league is overvaluing him relative to the other players. And so in a league like that, you legitimately cannot draft him at an appropriate value. And what the right thing to do is what the un... emotional thing to do is is wave bon voyage to jemir gibbs and say you're not an option for me this year because what you represent instead of a player for my team is a player that will be drafted to push other players down the draft to me yeah i mean there is a limit i mean jimier gibbs is very good he's one of and he's my guys we like him a lot but that doesn't mean that

we're going to take him over Nick Chubb or someone like that that just we have so much more data. He's going to get so much more work. Yeah, more opportunity. We have a history. And, you know, it's like there is a place where you just go and you get your guy, but it's all about the opportunity cost of what you're giving up. And if you're talking about first round options, first round running backs, there's just better players than Gibbs. And so, you know, you can grab them. You can have fun. But I think you're going to have the most fun.

When you get a W and then another W and another W, that's my recommendation. All right. Last one here. Mitch in New Jersey, yo, yo, yo, ballers. Yo, yo, yo. Is there any concern that Isaiah likely with the second year leap projected, expected? Is there any chance that he reduces Mark Andrews expected production? I think it's a good question to ask. I mean, anytime you have talent on the roster, there's really only one area that I would have slight concern about Isaiah likely on. And that would be the fact that he is a capable, large pass catcher near the goal line because he is a good player. I think he is going to take a step forward. And I love it if my pass catching tight end is all alone. I mean, if you have more options around the goal line, maybe it represents, I don't know, two touchdowns. Mark Andrews doesn't end up with over the year. I don't really personally view it as more than that. Yeah, I don't either.

It's, yes, likely is an emerging player, but how much will he actually be on the field if they are actually running 11 personnel, which the one in the one means there's going to be one tight end out there. And that one tight end is going to be Mark Andrews for the foreseeable future. So I like Isaiah likely. He's a very interesting player, but I don't think it's his time yet. I will say this. If Mark Andrews does miss time, if he doesn't get back with whatever's going on, sure. If I've got him, if that's the draft I've done, I'll cut whoever my last pick is and pick up likely, and I'll start him week one. Because he is a talented player if you're not familiar with him. Yeah, you were saying kind of where I was headed, which is that if Andrews ever went down during the year, likely would be highly competed for on the waiver wire because he is a capable pass catcher. And we saw that. He had some good games last year when Mark Andrews missed time.

All right, that is going to do it for today's episode. We have a fantasy time machine and a fantasy MVP episode coming this week. Please check out the Ultimate Draft Kit at Ultimate DraftKit.com. Get ready for your draft. This is another big draft weekend coming up, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Labor Day. That's when our League of Record draft is. Going to be a very, very fun week. And maybe we'll get some resolution to the Jonathan Taylor situation. Maybe you'll know a resolution by the time you're listening to this. Maybe. We'll comment on it tomorrow. All right. Thanks for tuning in. Thanks for listening and supporting the show. We'll be back with you tomorrow. We will. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join thefoot.com. And follow us on Twitter at the FF Ballers.