Early Top 10 WR Rankings, Dave Gettleman Speaks

It's seven. It's all about the touchdowns because the tar, the reception is the yardage. It is there. But you give juju three more touchdown. So now he's just that double digits. And now he's sitting right around the wide receiver five. And that's not talking about you're giving him Antonio Brown levels of touchdowns where it's 13 plus because then he's easily easily in the top four, probably in the top three. So.

Jason, I lean more with Jason's side of it's possible we have him too low. Do you think he leads the league in targets? Yeah, I think he's going, if he's not a league leader, he's going to be top three because, I mean, look, I know part of it is Antonio Brown, right? Antonio Brown's so good. He's demanded the targets. He's just an unbelievable talent. But the other part of it is Big Ben, he gets a rapport and he's going to hyper-target him. If you look at the last, what is the last six years.

This is no small sample. Antonio Brown has averaged a 16-game pace of 178 targets. That's gone. Right. And you've got a clear number one rapport in Juju with him. So, yeah, I mean, Juju will be a, if he doesn't lead the targets, the NFL in targets, he's going to be top three. And his talent alone, I realize he has not had the coverage.

that Antonio Brown has ever received. I realize that he's in the slot. They threw more than anybody. What's that? They threw more than anybody in football last season. So you did they transition a little bit to, you know, more of a James Connor focus. I think they're going to be balanced enough. But I mean, the last six years was the, you know, the dad I was just using. That wasn't just from this one single season of throwing the ball more. And in the last six years also to your point, Jason, Antonio Brown has.

only scored fewer than 10 touchdowns once. That was two years ago, but he only played in 14 games. Do you look at it the same breath that you would, Aaron Rogers with Green Bay where, like, that number one guy is going to end up in the double-digit category just because of how much they throw, how much Big Ben throws? Yeah. Yeah, I lean that way. So the range of outcomes for Juju, could he finish the year as the number one overall wide receiver? 100%. He is. I'm not going to put him close to there, but yes, he could. He is so talented. Last year.

Would you call him a star? A star has been born for sure. I wanted to make him a my guy. But there were so much statistical things that said it's going to be really tough for him to actually succeed next to Antonio Brown. I think you've taken enough credit, though, as if he was your guy. Oh, I mean? Yeah, because he was. I mean, I talked about ever. You like to bring up that he was going to be your guy so many times that he basically is your guy and then you get credit. How many times have I brought? Like.

Guys, I was so close. Patrick Mahomes was almost my guy last year. I was so close. But there's a difference between when I actually love a player and you're just making something up. That's true. I think that's going to be the big difference. Tomato Antonio Brown, you get your, your moment here. Number eight. So we've all got him. Well, I don't. You have him. I have him flip-flop with with juju. Antonio Brown.

We have as our consensus, number eight wide receiver for 2019. Last year, 15 touchdowns led the NFL, 168 targets, 1297 yard. Double-digit touchdowns in four of the last five seasons. I think that we all agree on a few principal points with Antonio Brown. Number one, I don't think any of us believe that he's done by way of age, like he's too old. Number two.

I think we all agree his season may come down to one person only, Derek Carr. Or whoever plays quarterback for Oakland. It just comes down to can Derek Carr or whomever plays quarterback do enough to stretch the field with Antonio Brown to make up for any time? Like, do we expect 15 touchdowns in Oakland? I think none of us do. No, certainly not. That would be more than half of Derek Carr's total touchdowns that he throws next year.

If he had, I mean, that's the way that I see it. I don't think Derek Carr is going to throw enough. I've got him currently statted out for 28 touchdowns. What's his career high? I believe it's 32. Oh, 32, the year before 2016. Right, his MVP season. So, I mean, maybe he throws 33, 34 and has his best year. He's got, he certainly has his best core of wide receivers he's ever had. But this is, you have to keep in mind, this is a team, you know, if you look at the offensive coordinator.

mixed with Gruden. They do want to still establish the run and be a run-first team. We'll have to see what they do in the draft. Obviously, they signed Crowell. There's still room for other running backs. I just don't see, like, he's not going to get the same targets that he's had. He's not going to get 178-16-game pace target. I don't see that happening in Oakland.

Mike, what is the worst case scenario stats-wise this season for Antonio Brown? Last year, 104 receptions, 1,300 yards, it was 1297, 15 touchdowns. What's his worst-case scenario? Worst case is low-end wide receiver 1. I don't think Antonio Brown can fall out of the top 12 as much as I'm crapping on Derek Carr right now. I mean, Carr, in 2016, he did enough to sustain two...

wide receiver ones with Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. So we'll see because if things, let that year, let's say that things bend a little bit more in the favor of Crabtree than they do for Cooper. I mean, he's pushing at that wide receiver seven range at that point, which is right around where we have Antonio Brown. So I feel very confident and comfortable where we have him right now.

All right, it's time for the most underrated player in the top 10. Mike Evans coming in at number nine on our rankings. I think he's the most underrated. Kyle, our editor-in-chief, asked the question, is he perennially and forever 25 years old? It sure seems that way considering the fact that what, he's starting his sixth season. Sixth season in the NFL. But last year, in case you weren't paying attention, which was an easy thing to do in Tampa, probably a preferred thing to do.

86 receptions, over 1,500 yards, 8 touchdowns, 138 targets, an absolute physical force. 26-20-plus-yard plays. That is one fewer than Tyreek Hill, who no one could stop talking about all season long. 17.7 yards per reception, third most in the league. And, guys, 1,500 plus yards. I mean, those aren't numbers to sneeze at. No.

It was the most yardage of his career. But since he came in in 2014, he has never failed to surpass 1,000 yards. A thousand plus yards in five straight seasons to start his career. I mean, that's at the tops. I mean, that's elite. He finished at wide receiver eight last year, despite the back and forth between Ryan Fitzpatrick and James Winston. Bruce Ariens.

arrives in Tampa, and for any of his shortcomings, look, he put together great offenses in Arizona. That's what I was going to bring up. Do you think that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense is better, just overall, more points scored, more yards on the year with Bruce Ariens and with Dirk Cutter. Dirk Cutter was an offensive coach. Because I'm in agreement with you, Mike, and I'm curious, do you think, Andy? I do.

So, I mean, this is a step forward, I believe, for an NFL offense taking on Bruce Ariens. And if that's the case, this is why I'm so bullish over Chris Godwin. I love Mike Evans. I love O.J. Howard. It's kind of, I see the whole Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense taking a step forward this year. He has a little bit lower of a floor.

than a guy like Julio, because Julio's going to put up 100 plus receptions, whereas I think Mike Evans is probably firmly going to be in that 80 to 90 range. That's where he caps out. So, in other words, you've got to turn the touchdown dial for Mike Evans. Yes, you do. If you turn that dial up, he's a top five guy. If you turn it down a little bit, the lack of PPR capability for him, it's probably going to pull him down into that 10, 11, 12 range. And yards after catch. Right. He just... That's not his forte.

Because he's put into bad situations, I believe. I mean, I don't think that he is missing the talent to do it. But the way that James throws him the ball, it's got a lot of 20-yard down-the-field jump balls. Yes. And I'm getting tackled immediately. So I think he is one of the best values out of these names that we've brought up. And really, we're not telling you anything too surprising today on the show. We're revealing rankings. But I don't think that you don't know.

What's crazy. Antonio Brown or Juju is good about this? Because I agree with you that we do seem to underrate Mike Evans talking as the general public. Would you be happy and confident at this point? You're in his draft. Mike Evans is your wide receiver one. Oh, yeah. I would feel fine. Yeah, I see the point you're making because I feel like I should. I should, but all right. But I'm not excited. Exactly.

I'm like, okay. As long as Julio's my wide receiver too, I'm fine with it. Yeah, I mean, obviously, that's a nice thing about Mike Evans, right? Mike Evans won't be going in the first round of your draft. So he won't be your number one pick. You know, hopefully you grabbed a stud to make it worth it. But that's why he's going to be a values because nobody is excited about him. The guys that you're not excited about who are still really, really good, those are good for fantasy football. Well, and that's a good thing to identify as a fantasy owner.

as a commissioner in your draft is look for guys that, you know, played on a team that struggled. I mean, there's going to be opportunity. David Johnson, this article that just came out on our website from Lauren Carpenter, David Johnson at least provides the potential value of a top five pick at a better draft position because Arizona was abhorrent. They were difficult to look at. Tampa struggled. They bounced around quarterbacks. You could easily ignore.

The strong end of the season that Mike Evans put up, week 16, 18 points, week 17, 25.6 points. Those two games, you know, oftentimes people don't see them because those guys aren't on championship teams. T.Y. Hilton rounds out the top 10. I have him at 10. Jason and Mike at 11. Last year, he was banged up, fought through it to end the season. You know, kind of surprising in the games he played.

busted 7% of the time. That's kind of been the M.O. for Hilton is that he's had kind of the up and down situation. But Andrew Luck returned with a vengeance. 1,270 yards, 6 touchdowns, 120 targets, 76 receptions. This despite missing three games and being banged up for a number of them. Highest catch rate percentage of his career. Highest yards per game of his career.

ask the same question that you just asked Mike Evans. Would you be comfortable walking into the season with T.Y. Hilton is your number one? No. I don't believe I would. I like T.Y. Hilton. I mean, he's, you know, he's a wider receiver one in my rankings. But if you look back, I love what Frank Reich is doing for the Colts as a team, as an offense. He's clearly underlux one. So you're...

I mean, you could be fine, but you're not excited because you look back at Tyoy Hilton's history and you go, okay, he's, you know, he's been in the league a long time. He's had Andrew Luck for a long time. And you've only had really three years ago when he finished as the wide receiver number five. Yeah, but two years ago he didn't have Andrew Luck. Sure, he was bad then, but the year before that when he had him and Andrew Luck was there. He finishes the wide receiver 21.

11 the year before, 14 this past year, granted in 14 games. It's just one of those things where I look at him as a back end one or a really, really high end two. But I don't see him as the target hog that I want as my wide receiver 1 that I'm confident is going to finish as a top 10 guy. Well, we talk about him, Jay. Will you pull up the splits and tell me what he finished from Weeks 10 on?

as a wide receiver. I'm just curious because obviously the first couple games of the year, he was actually okay, got injured for three or five games, but Andrew Luck was kind of figuring things out downfield. I'm curious what he was from Weeks 10 on. I'm not sure it's very high. It might be kind of right around where we have him ranked, but I am kind of curious. Number five. Okay, so he's the number five. That's kind of what I was wondering is once we saw him with Andrew Luck.

and Andrew Luck was comfortable. He was back. He was doing what he was trying to do. I mean, that's a pretty good sample size from Weeks 10 on. Yeah, I mean, but you also have to keep in mind. I think that's his ceiling. I think wide receiver 5 is in the cards. I think that is his ceiling, but you have to keep in mind they were dealing with a lot of injuries. They had no number two whatsoever. You know, Doyle was gone and they had a rotation of a couple different guys. Do they have a number two now? No, I like to hear him say that they had no number two. Well, I mean.