Early Top 10 WR Rankings, Dave Gettleman Speaks

to rise for Devante Adams, or do you see his numbers regressing from last year? If you had to put money on one direction, which would it be? If you have to put the money on it, I guess I would take slightly under, but there is absolutely room for him to go up. It's all about Aaron Rogers to me. Aaron Rogers sustains high-level fantasy-wide receivers as long as someone is capable.

And that, I mean, if you go back three years ago, that was the question about Devante Adams. Is he actually good enough? Well, this shocks people. It shocks us sometimes. Guys actually get better. Once they get into the league, that's not who they are at the end of their career. Devante Adams was somebody who actually rose to the occasion. He became a number one. And as long as Aaron Rogers is there, Devante Adams is going to be.

Consistent, like you said, 100% of the time, that's an insane number that Devante Adams always helped your fantasy team last year. And he can come through with Monster Games. And if someone actually emerges for Aaron Rogers as a wide receiver too, that just means that player is going to be a fantasy asset as well. It doesn't take away from Adams. We've seen numerous times.

When there's actually a second go-to weapon on the Green Bay Packers, they're just all fantasy-friendly. It doesn't mean that, like, back when it was Jordy. I mean, Jordy and Cobb, Jordy's still putting up top three numbers, even if Randall Cobb's being great. Yeah, you don't worry about that. Even a third. I mean, James, back in that time, was putting up double-digit touchdowns. And that's the reason it can grow because Devante Adams.

The last three seasons, the only player with more touchdowns than him is Antonio Brown. I mean, Devante Adams is as locked and loaded, guaranteed around the end zone. We don't usually look at touchdowns as one of those sticky stats. It's not. For most players, that's the least predictable thing. But I don't, there are certain players that year in, year out, I get rid of the, you know, that that.

factoid of, oh, touchdowns are hard to predict or, you know, they're not the stickiest because certain players like Antonio Brown with Big Ben and the number one wide receiver for Aaron Rogers, they are the touchdown scoring wide receiver of the NFL. And I mean, Aaron Rogers had a down year, 25 touchdowns. We used to have those conversations about Jordy Nelson, though. Even Jordan Nelson in his duration with Aaron Rogers.

You know, it was 15 touchdowns one year, then it was seven, then it was eight, then it was back up to 13, then it was back up to 14. So there can be variation. I don't think those are guaranteed. I'm curious, and I want to transition this into this next conversation. I have Julio Jones at number one. He's our consensus number three wide receiver. Mike, you got him at three, Jason at four. You guys finally let go of each other's hands here.

and win a different direction. I'm sorry. But I want to know the argument why you like Devante Adams more than Julio Jones, since you both have them in that boat. Julio Jones, just so you are aware, 113 receptions, 1,677 yards, 8 touchdowns, 170 targets, that's more than DeAndre Hopkins.

Monster back half of the year in terms of touchdown scoring. No player in the NFL has had more 20-plus-yard receptions since the start of 2016. He is a fourth quarter guy. He is a game-breaking player. He's the only wide receiver in the NFL to have over 1,400 yards in each of the last five seasons. So when you talk about floors and what you can guarantee from a position, I look at Julio, and look, I know that the maybe enough years has passed.

to where we don't look at him as a player that can score 13, 14 touchdown. I still think he can do that. I still think that's a possibility, and you see the second half of the season where he scored in almost every game. He was Julio Touchdown Jones at that point. He was. So why do we like, Julio has a longer, a longer history of purely dominating performances.

Why do you both like Devonthe Adams a little bit more than Julio Jones? Touchdowns. Yeah, the reason is the touchdowns. I mean, we joke that it's Julio Touchdown Jones just because he was finally scoring touchdowns. But it's not just like, oh, the beginning of last year, he wasn't a dominant touchdown score. If you look at the last three seasons, right, the last three seasons where Julio's dominated, you take his touchdown total. And you say, you know what? I'm going to double it. I'm going to give you twice as many touchdowns.

You'd still have to add one more before he equals what Devante Adams has had over that time. So, yeah, he is much more dominant from a possession, full PPR standpoint. But those touchdowns win in fantasy. And so that's why I just, I'm locked in as a true believer of, you know, I would put my money on double-digit touchdowns barring injury for Devante Adams. I would put my money on not. And I also have a little bit of fear of slight regression for Matt Ryan.

There is still a change. I know it's going back to an offensive coordinator that, you know, is not just new, but back again, backstreet boy style. And, you know, but you look at Mount Ryan's history, really up and down, up and down, up and down. And last year he had a very up year while their running game was injured.

If Freeman is back, those are some of the reasons. Eight touchdowns in his last nine games, he's done everything he can't to convince you. He can turn over a new leaf and find himself into. In those games, but we just, there's just such a long history of Julio. Only hit the double digit touchdown mark once, which is, that's ludicrous for a player who has dominated the league for as long as Julio has. So rather than.

jump on the bandwagon over the last eight games. You're going to lean more towards what we've seen for his career. Yes, correct. He seems like a lock for 1,500 yards, though. Yes, I won't disagree there. Number four, Michael Thomas. Michael Thomas coming in at number four. This is Jason. This is your doing. Jason's got him at three. I've got him at five. Mike has him at six last year. He was great. 125 receptions, 1,405 yards, and nine touchdowns.

I think the most impressive stat, and you know it probably if you're a Michael Thomas owner and you've obsessively watched him play, 85% reception percentage last year. He was targeted 147 times. He caught 125 of them. That's madness. That's just stupid. And that's how you lead the league in receptions. One part, Drew Breeze, targeting you 147 times. One part, sticky hands.

Now, the strange thing about Michael Thomas is that, and maybe it's just me. We can look at the numbers. It's not just you. But he just does not have the aura and feeling that he is going to give you monster games consistently. And I think that has to do with this stat. Lowest depth of target, 7.6 of all those upper echelon guys. That's seventh lowest in the league of qualified players, 7.6 yards per target.

Yeah, and that goes hand in hand with his high percentage rate, right? High catch rate, yes, his high catch rate. I mean, him and Drew Brees. He busted in a quarter of his games, too. Him and Drew Brees are so locked in together. The reason I have him so high is simply a standpoint of, you know, he comes into the league. Year one is a rookie, and rookies don't usually break out at the wide receiver position. He was the number seven guy in fantasy football.

He has been in the top half of the wide receiver ones the last two years. He's just as consistent as they come. I love good offenses. I don't fear a regression for Sean Peyton and Drew Breeze, the way that I do for, say, the Atlanta Falcons needing to throw quite as much as they did. So it's more of a safety risk mitigation. He's not, he is not as dominant as Julio can be. He is not as dominant as Devante Adams. But I just, he is one of those guys that I think he has.

his consistency and the idea of him just really disappearing is not going to happen. But for consistency, I mean, you can go through our top 10 here. And last year, there's only one player who busted more than 20% of the games. And he was up at 25. One out of every four games.

You were mad that Michael Thomas was in your fantasy line. That sounds like, oh my gosh, one out of four, 25% bust rate. It's really high. It does. Actually, it's not. It's not very high. It's very average for the top 24 wide receivers. Top 24. Yeah, right. We're talking top five guys right now. But, and you're also only looking at that year. If you look at that same statistic over the last three years, he's among the leaders. So, I mean, I'm not worried about.

the few games that is, you know, especially at the beginning of last year. Is there a chance he gets, I mean, Mike, is there a chance you're feeling the burn over from weeks 12 on where he had like four bus games and six games? If you were a fantasy owner, they had Michael Thomas at the end of the year, you probably didn't win a title, or you had to fight through his performances instead of winning because of him over the last few weeks. I mean, 5.8 points in week 12, 6.5 points in week 13. Here's one of the, I mean,

Here's one of the reasons that I hesitate about Michael Thomas over a guy like Julio Jones. I think John Payton, Drew Brees, that offense, they're fine winning however they want to win. If they could find two or three more wide receivers, value guys in free agency, draft a player, and they could use them to win the game, I don't think they need Michael Thomas to bear the load that Atlanta needs Julio Jones to bear. And I just think that the rise that Michael Thomas had.

throughout his career. I mean, third year and in, that was the best year of his career over 1,400 yards. I just, I think that the way they use Michael Thomas in the offense as not really the field stretch. I mean, they have the guys that do that for him. He's kind of, you know, in the middle of that, in the middle of a possession receiver and a field stretcher. I just think we're capped out where.

Michael Thomas will be for fantasy. Unless somehow the nine touchdowns jumps up to 1314, that would be to me how he would jump up into the top three. All right. Turning over to Odell Beckham Jr. Coming into number five, Mike and I have him at four. Jason, you got him at six. Look, Beckham is a...

I mean, we could talk about O'Dow Beckham Jr. for a long time, but he's a strange one to look at for a number of reasons. One, he's been banged up, had the injured season. Two, he's changing teams. I mean, you've got a new quarterback, new home. You're heading to Ohio. And look, we know how great of a player he is. We know what he does on the field. Will it translate to the same type of performances with Baker Mayfield?

In Cleveland, I mean, we projected certain things for Jarvis Landry. They didn't come to fruition last year. And not everybody was on the bullish Jarvis Landry side. But we did look and say, man, he had such a target share in Miami. Now he goes to Cleveland. It's just going to be really difficult to have all the stars aligned. The quarterback and the offensive game plan and the offensive coordinator and the way that everybody up and down the coaching staff feels about a player can change things.

Yeah, I have Odell Beckham at number four. And I'm admittedly, I'm having a very hard time with personal bias because I got Beckham at four. Like he's changing teams, which is a really big deal. And it's hard for me to not write it off because I think that Baker is a great quarterback. Odell is going to be fine. It'll be the number one guy, even though there's tons of weapons there. Meanwhile,

I've got Antonio Brown. I'm like, why am I worried about Brown? Because he's changing teams. That's why I'm worried about Antonio Brown, which does not make sense. So I need Jason. You seem to be the most level-headed about Odell Beckham here. Talk me off of my Cleveland Browns Express. So you're saying why you're still super high. And I get it. I love Odell, even though he's changing teams, but I hate Antonio Brown because not hate, but.

I've moved him down because he's changing teams. But the difference is, one is upgrading their quarterback, one is downgrading their quarterback. At this point in the career, Odell Beckham, I believe Eli Manning is inferior to Baker Mayfield. So he is, I know, crazy, insane thought. That's when the voice of public opinion would jump in if there was one. But the, you know, Derek Carr. Hey, this is Dave Gettleman over here.