NFC North Breakdown + Dobbins Doubt, Jet Logs - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/5

who's the one for his offense, who projects to, young upside, who projects to have 140 plus targets. You know, I think he's still getting better. I just prefer upside when I'm drafting in the seventh round versus elderly. Is it really upside, though? I think there is. I mean, last year, so here's some interesting numbers for a player comparison. Last year, Darno Mooney.

Over 80 receptions, 1,055 yards. Oh, thank you. 55. Okay, all right. Jackknife that in there, go on. And four touchdowns. Terry McLaurin, who we all love as a player, 77 for 1,053 yards and five touchdowns. One of those players is being drafted in the fourth, and one of them is being drafted in the seventh. Sure. Yeah, compared to Terry McLaurin, sure. And yes, we like him as a player, but we don't like him, or at least I don't, as a fantasy player.

And if you like Terry McClorn as a fantasy player, you've got a problem because it hasn't been a good ride. So that's a good example of what can go wrong. But I'd rather take it in the seventh. I'm into a wide receiver in the seventh who can see 16 targets in one game. Give me some more names around him because maybe I'm... In the seventh? Yeah. What are some names going around Darnell Mooney? Do you have any, Kyle? Yeah, I've got him here.

I know you said Thielen, but what else? Yeah, so Thielen, Drake London, Traylon Burks are the two right on the either side of Darnell Mooney, Mooney, Mooney, Moody, Mooney, Juju, Ju-Ju, Mooney. Dovanta Smith? Mooney. So there you go. Now, Adam Thielen, who would you rather, would you rather draft Adam Thielen over Mooney? Probably. Because Mooney's not going to end up the, I mean, Thielen had a 12-game run where he was the wide receiver seven. I don't think you can get that out of Justin Fields and Darno Mooney. The wide receivers,

Currently in the ADP, it comes down to Adam Thielen or Darnell Mooney, who's who I would be drafting. Let's move on to the Detroit Lions. Well, no, just kidding. Give me a sentence or two on David Montgomery. Because I've seen people that go all the way, they swing the pendulum so crazily where they're like,

Still talking about Khalil Herbert stealing reps from David Montgomery. I am extremely confident in him. Where are you guys? Yeah, I think he's the running back 15. I think his volume is secure. Where he's being drafted is like the three, four turn. The value is fine there. If you want to load up on some wide receivers and have, you know, if you grab two wide receivers in the first three rounds and you can grab.

David Montgomery, as you're running back too, I love, that's what he is for fantasy. And if you draft him with that in mind, I think it's great strategy. I think that by the end of the year, David Montgomery will be fine. But at his current ADP and with the situation of the potential for things to go really, really bad for David Montgomery are there. And like, you know, he's like one spot in front of James Connor. So I would.

Much rather be drafting Connor there. So I don't have the confidence that you guys do. Okay. Detroit, 3 and 13 last year. But man, that 313 and 1 record, they fought hard for it. They did. They didn't have the personnel, but Dan Campbell got his guys going. The preseason win total expectation was five last year. Do you want to take a guess at where it's at this year for the Detroit Lions? Six and a half. Oh, I'll take the under on that. Oh, you're wrong.

Six and a half. Oh, I told you. It was six. It was bet up. So I do, I would take the over. I think they'll win seven games. Okay. And, you know, they're a very interesting fantasy football story to look at because, you know, 25th in points per game, 25th in pace of play. Garbage time is something that they, look, they spend a decent amount of.

The week in garbage time. Is it garbage time when it's still the second quarter? I guess you're asking a real question. That's like that's still the game. I don't think any garbage time in reality can exist outside the fourth quarter. That's my definition. I don't know that it's garbage time ever if the team knows they're not going to win, but they're just doing their best. You know what I mean? Sure. I think the other team has to be wanting to play a prevent style defense to qualify it.

as garbage time. Well, then no garbage time for the Detroit Lions. Just very pass happy. They were a very, very bad defense last year, 31st and points allowed. So to add to the Dan Campbell, you know, love, fourth best against the spread, but only three wins. So they fought. There were closer games than what a lot of people expected. And this offseason, DeAndre Swift is going to come into the year healthy. We hope he stays that way.

Amon Ross St. Brown ended the season as a playoff king. He's so confusing. Oh, I'm so sad to hear you say that because my whole thing here is I have no idea what to do with Amman Ross St. Brown. So you're sad that we agree. Yes, I need like. Why are you said that we agree? I'm sad because I want the answer and I was hoping you could provide it. I have a different answer than both of you according to our rankings. Okay. Because you both have, you have translated.

You put your confusion into the computer, and it spit it out 30th and 33rd. Okay. So Mike at 30, Jason at 33. That sounds pretty good. That sounds accurate. I put the same amount of confusion into it, but I got number 19 out. Ooh. Okay. So I think, you know, Goff is capable. Amun Ra is capable of, you know.

10 targets a game type of numbers. I mean, we know Jameson Williams is going to be a slow developing situation. I mean, how many total targets? If you were to go bet it, how many total targets on the years James is getting? I think the line. Is it 50? I would take the under on that line. So, you know, that it's going to be Amman Ra as a primary target. DJ Chark is not going to steal a million targets.

in this offense. So I think from a PPR perspective, Amun Ra will volume his way into the top 20 at the end of the year. Now, this is not to say you get the playoff king version. Oh, he was so good. But this was a rookie. So you kind of throw out the beginning of the year to a degree anyways. Yeah. And you try to look at this fairly. And I think that, you know, four or five targets coming in garbage time most weeks alone is going to pile up.

He should be the chain mover. I mean, you can't really do what he did on the field and look as good as he did doing it without being... For as long of a run. Without being capable. That being said, during that stretch, the majority of his success came without T.J. Hawkinson and without D'Andre Swift, who they could easily be the first two targets ahead of Amman Ross St. Brown, but...

Amin Ra should be in that mix. And to start the season, and that's for draft purposes, you know, if you're talking about your home leagues, your redraft, your keepers, the beginning of the year is far more important than the end of the year for draft. James and Williams, not going to be there to start the season. So I do think Amman Ra, I've statted him out for the season, but I, you know, based on everything that's being said, he should be drafted a little bit ahead of that ranking because he should be a stronger start to the year than to...

than at the end. And I'm not trying to make a my guy case for Raman Ra. That's not where I sit. I'm not extremely excited about it. I think he's the kind of player that may lose some of his value over the back half of the year as James and becomes involved. But I mean, I have him for 100 catches. Sure. And, you know, he had 90 last year, so I have him for 106. And 100 catches, you know, you're in a half point, full point league.

It's going to add up pretty quickly. It's, I mean, six straight weeks of double-digit targets. His target pace was like 190 in that stretch. It's so absurd. And that story has been laid out of, you know, the absence of DeAndre Swift, T.J. Hawkinson, of like, it comes down to, for me, how much do you actually really believe in the player? Because we've seen, you know, in the past, we've seen guys who actually aren't that great.

do things like this. They just, they catch fire at a particular time when their opportunity was incredibly high. He was a fourth round pick, but, you know, out of USC. And to do those things, he has to have at least some ability. But can he replicate anything close to that? I would bet against that. Yeah, he was 89th percentile in our explosiveness metric that you see on, on the website player profiles.

Um, that's the place he excelled, uh, 45140. But he was just shifty. I mean, he just found open spots on the field. And that's a hard to quantify thing. When you go back and watch the tape, as the play developed, his, the defense around Aman Ross started to disappear. Um, Hawkinson, DeAndre Swift, both interesting for fantasy purposes. Jason really went against the grain when we went to Detroit and selected DeAndre Swift as his breakout pick.

But for good reason, RB 7 from Weeks 1 through 11, you know, you can, there's only a handful of players that could actually have, could push, you know, 80 plus receptions, 90 plus receptions at the running back position. He's one of them. Yeah, I mean, you've got your Austin Echler that, you know, I've seen Austin Echler often drafted at the number three spot this year. Obviously a much, much better offense, more touchdown upside with Echler than with the André Swift. But it's a similar.

style of player, a guy who is truly game script proof because he is so involved in the receiving game. And so I would think that DeAndre Swift, if he's in the second round, is just, he's a great pick him. Aaron Jones, I talked about it earlier, guys that can catch the ball and are extremely involved in their offense and are very, very talented. And going to be losing. Sure. I mean, so, I mean, keep dumping it off in garbage time. But when you...

You know, it's like when you're looking at these running backs that are kind of slipping a little bit, are they, what is their core talent? And DeAndre Swift is an extremely good running back and great in the receiving game. This is where fantasy players can get really stupid sometimes. And, you know, if you're obsessive, if you're listening here is July, which by the way, three shows a week starting right now. Oh, no. July is here. Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday shows.

August, it's coming, Mike. Prepare yourself. Get the jet log over with. The jet log? I didn't say log. Did I? Oh, yeah. I've got nods from the deusers. Yeah, it kind of sounded like that. Look, you might have had a jet log as well. I dropped one in that plane. Yeah, that's a jet log. Did you?

You had a plane poop? I didn't. Oh. Sorry. It was just too good. Have you had a plane poop? Oh, I have wrecked an airplane bathroom. No. When you got to go. But you're not dropping into any water, man. I don't care what I will not. I would. No, you won't even. I will sew that thing up. We have different inner workings. Like when I got to. Poop sensibilities. When I got to go. Look, I am.

miles up in the sky and there's nowhere else for me to go. I am not afraid to rock one in turbulence. So I got to dig in with your jet log here. Was there? Because oftentimes there's a waiting, a queue outside the door. Do you happen to remember when you wrecked this bathroom whether there was a queue?

I do not remember. Unfortunately, opening that door and looking in the eyes of the other person. You say jet log alert? You got to go full Ace Ventura. Just too. Woo! All right. Here's three wrap-up questions for you on the NFC North. Who wins the division? I will.

Take the chalk. I'm going to stick with Green Bay. I would go with Green Bay. Although I'd love to pick Minnesota, but I did that last year and I was dumb. Yeah, I do think Green Bay wins it, but betting-wise, the Vikings two win it is a solid bet at the odds right now. Toughest player to project in the division as a whole. Ammon Ra for me. For me, it's probably Alan Lazard. Yeah, I think it is Amman Ra. I'm going to go back and look at my lions after this show. Who's the sneakiest player to add?

Maybe a Dynasty ad in this division. Do you take a shot at like Romeo Dubs? Is that a sneaky edition? I mean, sure. When you're talking to Dynasty and you have 30 players on your team. Wide receiver for the Packers. Yeah, I mean, he was a fourth rounder, which Amuner was again, but the hit rate for those guys is so low. Dynasty waivers Amari Rogers or someone. Yeah, like the forgotten.