NFC North Breakdown + Dobbins Doubt, Jet Logs - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/5

But it was for Devante Adams, who was traded away. Packers ended up 13 and 4 last season, which at the time of our recording in the offseason last year, the lines were bouncing to like eight wins or something because they didn't know who was going to be there. Sure. But Aaron Rogers is back. And that means that they're going to be favorites to win the division. 13 and 4, they continue to deliver.

Their win expectation this year, is that 10.5? That was last year. Just recapping last year. I got you. Last year was 10 and a half. What is this year? This year they're at 11. 11. Okay. So you lose Devante. You get to play the Bears twice. And the Lions twice. Yeah. So there's four. Yeah. Pace of play last year. 32nd in the NFL, dead last and pace of play. But 10th and points per game. So a very efficient offense.

had the lead a ton. You know, only 28% of Rogers' past attempts came while they were trailing. So this was a team that won a lot of football games. And when it comes to fantasy, you lose Devante Adams, you lose Marquez-Valdes Scantling from the wide receiver room. You add Samuel Watkins. Yep. That's not an even swap, just so you know. No, it definitely is not. But everything for the Packers, it's the wide receiver room.

The Lizard King in. But like, I mean, this is, aside from, you know, Lazard and Cobb, I get, yeah, you do have to factor in Cobb, but he did not look, you know, truly like himself last year as he's getting older. But this is a really new wide receiver room of who would the actual starters be. They trade up to go get Christian Watson in the second round. And.

How much does that affect Aaron Rogers? That's my biggest takeaway. I know people want to, well, who's going to be the wide receiver one? And we can argue over that. But it's like all those guys are going late in drafts. And Aaron Rogers has been such a staple and so consistent of greatness for fantasy football. Can he really continue that greatness if he doesn't have a true dominant number one wide receiver?

Two or more passing touchdowns in 15 to 17 stars, Jason. Aaron Rogers right now being drafted as the quarterback 11 as we sort out the running back room. Yeah, that's too high for me. Obviously, he is first ballot Hall of Famer, one of the greatest quarterbacks all time. He's going to get it done. They're going to win games. But when you lose, we talked about this with regards to Patrick Mahomes and the loss of Tyree Kill.

But on average, quarterbacks that lose a wide receiver 1, lose about two fantasy points per game over the last decade. He's going to go down a little bit. And he finishes the quarterback 6. And that was on the back of a really high 7% touchdown rate. So without Devante Adams, he's someone that I've seen him slip to.

really, really late in a couple best balls. I will still grab him. I have him on a few rosters, but as the quarterback 11, I'm taking someone with more upward trajectory. I am warming. By the way, his career touchdown rate, what is that? It's got to be close to that. It was 6% before the last 2 years. 6.4% before the last 2 years, 6.4, if you include the last 2 years, where he was 9 and 7.1, I believe.

Yeah, I am warming on Lazard leading the way. I don't know what that will translate into. I think that'll depend on touchdown totals. But I would definitely favor Lizard the way they're talking about him and then having competition. That's a rookie, Sammy Watkins, you know, Romeo Dubs, Randall Cobb, the aged Randall Cobb, who I do think will be involved. I mean, tried and true targets, like the relationship that they have.

will lead to targets. And Tanyan won't be back and ready to start the season. So you're going to be taking some gambles in the wide receiver. Like there'll be a team to target in a good matchup to try to find that non-Lazar option and just steal some points if you get it right on a certain week. Yeah, I agree. I still like Lazzard's draft price right now. Considering his biggest competition for targets in that system will be the Lizard King.

a second round rookie, a fourth round rookie. Is Amari Rogers going to be a factor at all? I mean, it seems like probably not considering he just did nothing last year. There's so many names that we just said. Yes. That create a problem for drafting players not named Alan Lazard. Yeah, it is one of those situations where when you're looking for a breakout candidate, you can't have a much better situation than one of these nebulous...

wide receiver cores where you're not sure who it is. So nobody costs a ton and you have a first ballot Hall of Famer. Pick who you think it's going to be and take a shot at one of these guys in your draft and move on. But I mean, when, you know, you talk about a lot, Andy, trying to find someone that you can drop week one. If you draft at the end of your draft that you kind of know is this player...

good or not, is he in the offense the way we hope he is? I think taking a shot on any one of these guys, Christian Watson, Sammy Watkins, Alan Lazard. Yeah, Watkins and Cobb fit that to me, not the rookies. The rookies don't fit the week one drop scenario, but Cobb and Watkins, just in case. You know, now Watkins, we already know is going to have three touchdowns in a week one. So maybe he's a two-weeker. But.

Yeah, it's kind of nebulous. Now, I think the biggest beneficiary, you know, we've seen statistically in the past, when you lose that number one target, vacated targets, they do go to a running back position very often, the running back position very often. And there isn't a much better pass catcher out of the back field than Aaron Jones. So I have high expectations for Aaron Jones. He had the six most running back receptions already last year. And we saw the playoff game. It was literally every target was Devante or Aaron Jones.

I think Dylan and Jones will be on the field a lot together because they're going to manufacture offense. That's what they do. They figure it out in Green Bay. So he'd be my, like I feel so confident in Aaron Jones and I'm more than comfortable having him as my RB1. If I want to go wide receiver in the first round of the draft and come back and get Aaron Jones.

Yeah, we've seen Aaron Jones climb a lot in baseball. So right now in Sleeper, he's at the two, three turn. He's the last pick in the second round. I expect by the time August comes around, he's going to be in the middle of the second. I love, I love Aaron Jones. You know, I talked a lot about D'Andre Swift and his upside in that, like, middle of the second area. Those are the two guys I want in the second round more than anyone, Aaron Jones and D'Andre Swift. A quick moment here for A.J. Dillon.

Give me the highest potential finish you see for him so our listeners know what to expect from the upside of A.J. Dillon. The upside is baked in to an injury to Aaron Jones. If Aaron Jones goes down, A.J. Dillon becomes a top 10 running back for fantasy. So I think this is a guy that his median projection to me is not otherworldly. He's a low-end RB2 to me, maybe a middle RB2, but his upside is tremendous.

Because Aaron Jones is not, you know, the most durable big-bodied back out there. Yeah, I expect Dylan will be a low-end running back too. And it's not just that, you know, if Aaron Jones misses a ton of time, then AJ Dylan's great. Aaron Jones will miss a few games. That's going to happen. In those weeks, you're going to be even more thrilled that you have Dylan on your team. Aaron Jones is such a great best ball player.

Yeah, we all agree on Jones. He disappears and then you'll get all of the great games. Let's take a quick break and then we'll jump into Minnesota. What's up, Foot Clan? You are confident and disciplined and focused on details, just like everyone here at the fancy footballers, right? Those are words you used to describe us. In other words, you were made to drive the 2026. Sierra 1500 Denali, a full-size pickup combining capability.

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Go to selectquote.com slash footballers today to get started. Okay, let's talk about the Minnesota Vikings last year, eight and nine. The win expectation before the year was eight and a half. So they nailed it. More one score games last year than any team ever. Tied the all-time record for one possession games. Fourteen of their first 15 games were one possession games. So this is a team that could have had a vastly different season.

because they went six and eight in those. So, you know, it was close. They were on the edge. They made a change at the, you know, head coach position. Kevin O'Connell is the new head coach. And so they needed something to get them over the hump. And everything we've heard so far this off season is very, I think exciting and intriguing for Minnesota's offense because they're reporting a much past happier scheme.