The TRUTH: Top 10 Fantasy WRs + Goober Alert! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 1/30

Or Malik neighbors in a dynasty. I love the question. It is a very fair question. I know my answer. I think it's a fairish question. That's still Malik. Yeah, it's neighbors for me as well. But he's, I mean, he is very, very high up. He'll be. It's when you move into like. Marvin? Do like, are you, is your, is your confidence in your, in your, in your scouting process and you're, of Marv being like. My confidence in my scouting process in Marv. Is it strong enough to fight up Brian Thomas? It is very strong. It is 100% strong enough to fight off any negative connotations of failure from a disappointing rookie season. But my scouting of Marv includes now his rookie year. And same with Brian Thomas. And Brian Thomas has usurped him to me. That's such a good way to put it. They added both their resumes. And if you were redrafting, I would take Brian Thomas Jr.

If I was an NFL team, I would actually take Brian Thomas Jr. in startup dynasty, you're talking about probably the wide receiver 5, 6, 7. He's in that range. Like Chase, Jefferson, C.D. Lamb, probably Ammon Ra ahead of him. And then you're taking the shot on neighbors or Puka or these guys. So he's very, very high. And I think he'll be a first round pick next year in redraft. Let's talk about a player that kind of went the opposite direction. Not a lot, but a little, just like some of those guys at the front where Chase was drafted as wide receiver four. Last year, sweetie, Mr. C.D. Lamb, not D.D. Westbro. C.D. Lamb. Was drafted as the wide receiver two, finished at five. Consistency of 11, though. 20% bust games. That wasn't part of the CD experience last year at all.

Still had 20% great games, 53% good, lost his quarterback who went on IR in week 10. His first half consistency was five, second half 18. We have a reason for that. I'm so impressed, like genuinely impressed by C.D. Lamb this year. He probably was more impressive this year than he was last year when he was the wide receiver one. To lose your, to lose DAC to be playing with. A shoulder that looked like you should not be playing with this injury. You shouldn't be out of bed. No. The man should be laid up watching Netflix. And that arm should be in a sling. Yes. Do not use that arm. Or go out and play football on it and get tackled on it every single week. He's doing that with backup quarterbacks. And he still finishes as the wide receiver five. Even if you look at just the seven games played without Dak Prescott, he's on a 1,300 yard pace very involved. So, you know, I don't have.

a smidge. I will be drafting him next year like I did going into this season, personally. Which then adds kind of our commentary on Brian Chottenheimer where I like the consistency. Like if you told me that they had went out, like I don't, I don't want to defend Jerry Jones and the Cowboys, but I'm going to for a second. Okay. I don't think they're in a position where they can make a right move ever now. Okay. I totally hear what you're saying. That's actually, because you know what? If they went out, and they made Dion Sanders the highest paid coach in football and brought him out of, paid his buyout of Colorado and brought him to the NFL. You're just the same old cowboys doing the flashy thing for the, you know, it's the way their draft picks were. You finally took some offensive linemen for a while. Well, now you're not taking the big, why didn't you take the running back you needed and the big flashy player? Then you take the flashy player. Why didn't you go safe? Brian Schottenheimer is boring. He's a boring hire.

Might be the right hire. He could be and obviously they do know more about Schottenheimer than we do. They've worked with him for years. They know his capabilities. And so you've got to have a little bit of trust there. We were wrong. We were wrong with the departure. We mocked the Mike McCarthy higher. And the departure of Kellynne Moore and the replacement with Brian Schottenheimer translating to a worse season for CD and less production on the offense. And both DAC and CD were better with that. That's all I'm saying. Yeah, and I think that's fair. I agree with the premise that just about everything they do is going to be scrutinized and kind of you're going to be smelling it like you're smelling a fart. You're looking for something bad. I do think if they went out and hired Ben Johnson, you know, we would have universally said, wow, great hire that's that, you know, I think they can make picks that will be liked, but you're going to primarily with the Cowboys.

just have pessimism right now because it's fun to say things at jerry jones's expense yeah it's dysfunctional and to be fair he says some crazy things man he says him at his expense the last one oh brother that's not the first time he said that no he has an old man definition of some of the words he said i think he's just trolling now no no no he's not no that wasn't a troll i watched it no that's That's got a different meaning than I can't even talk. Yeah, we can't say on this show. But C.D. Lamb, you got all the confidence in the world. I have confidence as well. If there had been a tremendous, like, change at the quarterback position because they made a different decision, a different head coach is going to run something completely, you know, you need a running back and a running game. That was the departure from last year to get more consistent high performing games. But I'm not worried about my.

You know, no Brandon Cooks, he's a free agent. If the wide receivers or the running backs change for the better or the worse, either way, it changes nothing for CD Lamb. The only thing that could change anything for CD Lamb is if Dak Prescott on his recovery, you know, isn't ready to go or something, and that doesn't not appear to be the situation. Maybe Schottenheimer's the right guy, and it's like two years ago, the Cowboys offense was incredible. This past year, you know, it ranks near the bottom. Like, for me, I would not have been nervous for C.D. Lamb, regardless of any coach that comes in. It's the offense as a whole that I am not sure if Schottenheimer's the right guy. Because I want this Dallas offense as high-powered as possible for more scoring opportunities for Cid Lam because he will get his targets, but we need touchdowns. Well, this is not a name we've got to talk about on this show, ever.

Oh, it's when we're talking about the truth. Feels good, man. Feels good. Number six in year number six for the very first time ever, a top 10 fantasy wide receiver coming in at six. Terry McLaurin. Yes. At 29 years old, that is not young. Who doesn't, like honestly, who doesn't love Terry McLaurin? He's, if you don't love Terry McLaurin, you've got to look in the mirror. and figure out what the flaw is in you. Bucks fans? I don't know. I feel like you can be in division hate Washington and look at the career of Terry McLaurin and go, dude, that guy is a baller and that guy has put up with so much garbage. So I am so happy. Been a team captain forever for them. Great dude, great player. And it was nice to see him be able to have. He's a very fast player, right? He's got speed and strength.

combined and it's so nice to see when those type of players can be running on the field and the ball is placed just in front of them. Right. And you see what they can do and that happened over and over and over with Jaden Daniels putting the ball in stride where you don't have to come back to the ball to catch it. You don't have to stop. You don't have to jump and dive and end your run because this is a guy who can have great run after the catch potential. Very similar to DJ Moore where if you can If you can place the ball right, you're going to have massive big plays. Terry McLaren was a big play machine this year, which he really hadn't had the opportunity to be. And he was literally almost identical against top defenses, bottom defenses, home, road. 19% great. That's the same as Jefferson. 69% good games. Amazing. Nice. 25% bust games.

Just a dynamic playmaker through and through all season long. One of the best picks in fantasy drafted in the late sixth round. Consistency rate was seven. So right by his finish, nine and nine first and second half. 82 for 1096 and 13. If you want to pick it apart, 13 touchdowns is going to be real tough for Terry McLaurin to do again. And that is, that is everything of he had 117 targets this year, caught 82 of them. So a 70% catch rate that is. by far the highest of his career. But even with those things, he was still just under 1,100 receiving yards. That's 1100 yards. That's excellent. But 1,100 yards is not usually a receiver of this finish. That's the fewest receiving yards by a top six fantasy wide receiver since 2017 when Jarvis Landry did it. So it's the 13 touchdowns old. 13 touchdowns. So they're.

More than likely there will be touchdown regression. So Terry McLaurin's ADP is going to be one of those. Hopefully we all keep cool heads and he is not drafted like he's going to get 13 touchdowns. I think because of his age, he'll be 30. And a lot of times people really back off. And also the fantasy community is so much smarter than seven, eight years ago. Where ADP is closer to right, there are fewer. hits off of the waiver wire because we, you know, we're targeting people correctly. I think cool heads will prevail and he won't be overinflated. Four years ago, Terry McLaurin would have been overdrafted. And even though he's great, he might wind up on our bus list for where he's going. I don't think that'll happen this season. Yeah, it's just nice to see somebody finally get that opportunity to shine. Yes. And he will have that opportunity again next year with Jaden and.

More primetime games will be coming Washington's way, no question. Malik Neighbors at 7? Wouldn't say it's a consistent year. It's a weird, weird year. Seven is just doesn't feel right at all. His consistency rank was 13. That feels about right. That still even seems high. I would say here's the story of Malik Neighbors in summary. His first half was number seven in consistency, but he missed two games due to injuries. So that's a little bit of a distortion. Second half was 23rd, and really from weeks 5 through 14, that is not a small amount of time, a relevant player. But a guy you played every week. But a guy you played every week. So actually, he hurt you because 5 to 14 is a huge stretch. It's the main chunk of the season. He started with three straight top six finishes in weeks 2, 3, and 4. So he set you up to like, I just found a diamond in the rough.

It wasn't his fault, right? The quarterback position was rotating through different starters. The team was a disaster. But injury, which was the concussion, I believe. I think so. I think you're right. And then, so he missed two games. Then he comes back. I will say this. Doesn't finish inside the top 25 for that entire strip. So I don't think he crushed dynasty managers during that time. You never had the big game. But of those seven games played during that stretch, which one of those weeks was a by week, he had two bust games. And that's actually a really good number for a wide receiver. Wide receivers bust more than you think unless you're the cream to the crim. He was wide receiver 33 from week seven through 14. But with like a consistent like 10 points every week. It just felt like every week was 10. So I'm not saying he was very good during that time. He also had a quarterback change during that time. Week 10, Daniel Jones was.

put out to pasture. And so, you know, he dealt with less than Daniel Jones. You were already starting with a problem. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And then, like, how would you like a bigger problem? You got to see some flashes during the fantasy playoffs of monster games. We know his talent is there. You know, 11 targets per game. They weren't good targets. There's going to be the same questions about Malik neighbors next year as there were this year, which is, how do we feel about the new quarterback? Because we're not sure. And I'm probably going to err on the side of buying into the talent of Malik neighbors because I don't want to be left out. Yeah, he's the kind of player that when it's going, you're really happy he's on your team. I just don't know where that's going to be when it comes to the draft. And it's going to depend on who that quarterback's going to be. Where do they draft? I think there's going to be a lot of variance. Are they two?

Yeah, let me pull it up real quick. Yeah, you pull that up because they, by the way, they were three, Tennessee, Cleveland Giants. They were tied or trailing on 90% of his routes. That makes sense. So that's what I felt. Yeah, you kind of felt like, you know, he's one of those situations with that offense where you felt like, you know, some just are like a knife through butter. You watch Cincinnati and it's up and down the field. This one felt like it was a, you need a thousand cuts to finally get a scoring opportunity. To finish at seven overall with seven receiving touchdowns. He's that dude. 170 targets. That is what I will have a hard time passing on. Yes. He is, he is a dominant one who is an alpha wide receiver demanding the ball can handle it. And so, you know, Jamar Chase hasn't always been this year's Jamar Chase. But you look at the talent of him and you say, we know he can be.

That's what I see with Malik neighbors. Now, obviously, Jamar Chase has Joe Burrow, and that's a massive difference. It's possible. I believe in, who was it? I think it was Daniel Jeremiah's latest mock. It might have been his first mock of this season, but the last one I saw, I believe that he had the Giants getting the first quarterback off the board with the Titans and Browns, both going defensive players. Who knows? Was it Cam Ward? Yeah, Cam Ward, I believe that was who he went. Yeah, they're in a position where, you know, look, we've seen some rookie quarterbacks make a quick impact. Especially recently. And you really can't get worse than what he got last year. That 170 targets needs to be like multiplied by point, you know. 0.75. Yeah, 0.65 or something with what you got. At 8, another surprise name, maybe for.

Well, yes, definitely, compared to where he was drafted in the ninth round. Jackson Smith and Jigba, a tale of two halves, gentlemen. Oh, yeah. Finishes with a consistency of 19, first half, 45. First half, weeks 1 through 8, singing the same song for JASN. If you were a dynasty manager who, in a dynasty league traded for JSN in the middle of this year, I would love to see those trades because you probably got. a top wide receiver prospect, a top, like, you know, if we were doing a redraft startup, he's going to be one of the first 12 wide receivers drafted, and you probably got him for Jack squat. Because halfway through this year, you're like, well, I guess JSN wasn't really, it was a year and a half, and it confirmed our fears from last year, and he took over. To go from a first half consistency of 45 to a second half of five overall.

is so impressive. Now, I don't know what angle I'm going to take. I know the truth of JASN is a very good player. You also had a second half of the season where inexplicably, D.K. Mack have disappeared. You've now fired your offensive coordinator. You got very limited playtime in production from your running game in the second half of the year. Fighting desperately, Gino Smith could not throw touchdowns. I don't. It's a kind of Seattle's just kind of a weird mess for me. And I don't know if I'm going to feel better about them at any point in this off season or anything's going to happen to change that. So here's, let me, let me make the pro argument for you. Okay. Tyler Lockett is done with the Seahawks. Even if they bring him back, he's done. You know what I mean? Like he was done this year. He doesn't have much left to give. We kind of saw.

the gas tank run empty on Tyler Lockett. D.K. Metcalfe has kind of shown what he is, which is a really dominant physical force and not the greatest wide receiver. During that second half of the year with Gino Smith, nine games played, he caught 76% of his passes. This is a go-to guy who can be reliable, would have been on a pace for over 105 receptions, and... You know, Gino, I expect to be back as of right now. He was used differently than he was used his rookie year where everything was behind the line of scrimmage. You got to see him work down the field where he belongs and succeed. So I do think going forward, like who would you think next year, even forget fantasy? Just from a game plan perspective, they're going into 2025. Who do they view as their primary wide receiver?

See, I think it is JSN. It'll be Metcalf. I genuinely believe that. Yeah, I think Metcalf is still the alpha there. You know, JSN is a very, very, very good player. But I don't know what his touchdown cap is not anywhere near Metcalf's. I mean, Metcalf could score 15. Had a weird, bumpy year. Gino's a free agent in two years. I don't, I just don't know what it's going to look like. I think the average depth of target for JSN was very low this year. And I will throw out, if you've been with the show for a year, I kind of have these. So Kyle says 9.2A dot. That's low. Yeah, that's not where you want it to be for a number one fantasy type of a wide receiver. But just looking historically back on ADP, right? So guys who finish in the top 24 for the first time in year two, that's a good sign? No, they're hit right.

I know, it's really weird. That don't make no sense. It's not that they're bad. It's just that they're the hit rate of returning the, so like if I, he's drafted as the wide receiver 12, you expect him to score X amount of points, right? Mm-hmm. Their, their hit rate of getting to their X, the points are being drafted to hit, they're only hitting it about 50% of the time. It's a really, really weird. I'm not sure I understand what you said. Okay. Do you get it? I'm trying to do it off the fly. You're saying that after if a player jumps up into the category in year two. A player finishes as a top 24 wide receiver for the first time in their career in year two. And then they're drafted proportional to that. They don't deliver on their expectations the next year in year three. 50-50. Yeah, see, he's a glass half empty guy. 50-50. I can be a glass half full guy. 50% of the time they do.

Well, look, J.S. N. Guys who do it in year one and shockingly, guys who do it in year three for the first time, their hit rates are tremendous. That's just a weird. But here's why. Let me just poke a little bit of hole in that logic. If they did a little bit of holes. If they did it in year three, you are going to be far more suspect of them succeeding, which means where they are drafted going into year four will be much lower. When a wide receiver. hits it in year two, of course their ADP is going to be very high. And if your ADP is very high, it's already baked in a higher likelihood of failure. Like if you are drafted as the wide receiver one, I would bet you the wide receiver one drafted every single year. 90% of the time fails because there's nowhere to go but down. Yeah. But these guys aren't necessarily drafted like that. I'm just saying it's a really weird. It feels like a strange anomaly.

that the way that we think about wide receivers of year two is the real breakout year. But you will not be happy with 100 for 11006 from Jason. No, you will not. Not that he will do that again, but that's what his numbers were. You won't be happy if that's what it is. If it's averaged up the target and touchdowns don't go up, you'll just be kind of unhappy. And it's Gino. It's the offense. It's the new coordinator. It's the division. I am not saying I'm out on Jason. I think he was explosive and amazing from week 9 through 16.

I'm just saying that the first eight weeks, what happened there? Yeah, that's fair. I mean, what happened there? What happened to 17 weeks of last year, first eight weeks of this year? And then that stretch, is that a defining change? You'd be like, yes, definitely, except for the guy calling the place is gone. Right, that's fair. But a breakout that happens at a team that says, oh, okay, we see more what a player can do, can put him into that mix. Yes, it definitely can. I'm really going to be on D.K. Metcalfe, watch. He's 28 years old. He's got a.

31 million dollar cap hit this year. And this is his final year contractually. So do they extend him so that they can free up some room? That makes sense. But also do they extend a 28 year old who's had a down season when they're wanting to get to running and they've got some cap issues? Or do you look to trade him? I don't know, but I'm on Metcalf watch because he's been in those rumor mills for a couple years. Yeah, and he could have a massive impact on JSN. I feel like this has been too accidentally negative about JSN. I'm just trying to look at the big picture of that offensive coordinator leaving and my lack of confidence in Gino, because Gino can go out and throw under 20 touchdowns like he did this year in the relevant fantasy weeks, or he can go out like he did a couple years ago and be better. Something didn't work with Grub from the team's general, you know, from their perspective of the coach and the team. Whatever that was, we're going to find out. We should have. Grub is unhealthy. I mean, we should have none. Grubs. Grub. Yeah, well, I'm just saying, no, like.

You don't call a salad grubs. Grub. You know what I mean? Like when you're eating grub, you're eating like just grub is bugs. It is as a lion king. But it is also junk food. Not just the lion king either. Also life. What? No, I think Mike's right here. No, I have only. Grubs are a common way to refer to a bunch of. Addable bugs. Go to the deucers. I mean, none of them are questions. Okay. All right, all right. I've got the definitive answer. We don't need the deucer. Sorry, guys. I would love to read away. Go away. All right, grub. I said define grub. Here's what Google says. There are two definitions. Noun. One, food. A popular bar serving. Excellent. Grub hub. Yeah, it's grub. But that's always bad food. That's the reference I was making. The other one, the larva of an insect, especially a beetle. We're both right.

Look at that. Yeah, I wasn't, I mean, I definitely didn't disagree with Grubhub. Okay. But, but okay. How many, sorry, this is more rhetorical, just of curious. Like, the Seahawks won 10 games. They went 10 and seven. Right. And this guy's first year being an OC and they're like, yeah, see you later. I think it was a philosophical difference. Yes. I believe the defensive head coach wants to run the ball more. I think D.K. Metcalf got him kicked out of town. I don't actually think they want to run a lot more. But this is, this is interesting. Like this is getting the juices going because J.S.N is like, oh, okay, here we go. This is a player who's going to, we're going to disagree about. And his swings are going to be wild. I feel like, I feel like they let go Pete Carroll. And then they're like, man. What did you hear the? I like the Pete Carroll offense better run the bubble. Pete Carroll could have Russell Wilson in Las Vegas with Darrell Bevel.

as the offensive coordinator. Yeah, that will. It will not happen. Oh, I think it definitely will happen. Oh, we got to put a bet on that one. I think we're putting Seattle back into Las Vegas. I think we're running it back. Old man edition. I think Carol knew exactly what he was doing when he let Russ walk. He saw him every day. I don't think he wants Russ back. Yeah, but then he went and watched the tape of AOC. AOC. All right, we'll take a break. Got some more names. What you don't want to do is order from Grubbs Hub.

If you order from grubs up, you will get larva only. Yeah. Which if they look like they do in the Lion King, you're in? I'm going to eat them. They looked appetizing to you. They made bugs look delicious. Because of juicy. Yeah. Flavorful. I was in. They were well-fed bugs. Those grubs had eaten. What were those things eating? Grubs. Probably corn. You know what I mean? They were fattened and finished on corn. Oh, no. That's a corn-fed bug. That's right. Number nine was Drake London. Came in at 10 in consistency, 9 in the first half, 14 in the second half, a little bump in the road from weeks 11 through 16 while the quarterback situation got jostled around. 56% good, 6% great, 13% bus, drafted as the wide receiver, 10 finishes as the consistency rank of 10. Did Drake London just...

do what we thought he'd do? He did. He broke out. He showed that he's capable of not only just being an NFL wide receiver one, but a true target dominator. And this is the one player. We made the philosophical decision to chop off week 18. Doesn't count for fantasy. There's so many players that on a case-by-case basis played half a game, played some of the game, we just wanted to know the season we just had, how was it? This is the biggest exception where it hurt. his numbers. In week 18, he was the number one, you know, wide receiver in fantasy football. And this was a very important game while it was being played for the Falcons. So it was, this was real football where he dominated and he needed to dominate and he came through. What would that? Did you have that? I don't have that in front of me because I don't have everybody else's week 18 data. Yeah, I mean, look, the first half of the season when there was some stability there, number nine in consistency, finished at nine overall.