Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - Running Back Fallout from the NFL Draft, News, Questions

much larger. David Johnson's a very large man. I think he can do it. I'm talking somebody like Buck Allen that Baltimore drafted. He's talking about a refrigerator Perry, Mike. But Duke Johnson comes in. Ariens has already come out and said Ellington's role is going to be the exact same. We know Ellington is a guy that they love clubhouse-wise, that they believe a lot of his lack of production came from injury and not necessarily skill set.

because we saw them have a much better year the year before. So these are things to consider when you temper expectations. I think that they, I think the peak is a split there. Well, the peak, I mean, obviously, you know, you can't predict injury, but Ellington's foot has been, you know, such a blight for so long, this whole last year. He's still not healthy.

fully healthy yet. So it's one of those things where, I don't know, it seems to me like Ariens wants to draft a three down back and he just got one. And I agree that this is good for Ellington. It's good for his value because if anything, it pushes his ADP lower. And I think that his... Depends on who you're talking to. There's some people that I've read a lot of stuff that says that... It's like an endorsement for Ellington. Yeah, they think it's great for him.

Well, yeah, I mean, I guess, you know, to each draft his own, but you'll have to see where his value goes in your draft. But if he's pushing back later, I think his yards per carry are going to go up because his usage is going to go down. I think his ADP should slide a little bit because, you know, David Johnson, to me, has one of the highest upsides of the running backs.

but not a very likely, you know, it's not like Melvin Gordon where his upside is high and his probability is high. David Johnson's probability isn't necessarily that high, but I think the possibility of him finishing, you know, I look at most of these guys and think how many of these guys could finish as an RB1? And not hardly any of them, but if David Johnson got that role, I think he could. Right. So we forget.

that when Ellington was really good, so his rookie year, Rashad Mendenhall, who was touting a 3.2 yards per carry average, was fantasy relevant. Both of them were fantasy relevant. Now, it's, what do you need to look at, Arizona, we brought in Mike Yupati, right? One of the best run blocking guards in the NFL. They added...

DJ Humphreys is their first round pick, who Daniel Jeremiah from NFL.com, who now he works for them, but he was a professional scout for multiple NFL teams, including the Ravens, called Humphreys the best tackle in the draft. They have gone all of, the Arizona offensive line is ready to go.

They also added AQ Shipley, who's... Huge upgrade for the center. He'll be the center position, and he's an upgrade. I just think the entire Arizona offensive line is ready to go for a lot more running. And to me, I just... David Johnson, his measurable things, like how fast he is, how big he is. He just... I don't see how he can fail in Arizona. The way things are set up for him. I'm not... Almost the way we talk about Dallas.

Back in Dallas is going to have success. People aren't going to talk about the Arizona line until they see it. But trying not to be the homer, but just seeing what, because we see what they're doing every day because that's what we follow. The Arizona line is going to be amazing as long as Humphrey pans out. It's a great point. And really, if you want to drop any rookie into a filter and decide how good they can be, you've got talent and you've got your supporting cast.

And you've got opportunity. That's why I like Gordon, right? Because he's got all three guaranteed. If that third piece comes in the right amount for David Johnson, because the supporting cast, you just described it, the talent is there, the measurables are there. And so he could be a really sneaky pick. I think he's got RB2 upside at the peak.

And keep in mind where he's going ADP-wise, you know, you're probably going to have Amir Abdullah and Taven Coleman, guys like that, T.J. Yeldin, going, all of those guys going ahead of David Johnson. Yeah, I'd say Johnson's going to go later. And a crazy thing when looking at, I was trying to find a good player to combine compare with David Johnson. Levion Bell. He's pretty good.

And some people had some very negative stuff to say about Levi-on-Bell. That worked out pretty well. I'm not saying David Johnson is going to be Levi-on-Belon. David Johnson or T.J. Yeldon. David Johnson. Depends on the position. I would rather have T.J. Yeldon if they were at the same exact spot, you know, if I got to draft a guy and there's only one round, I'd draft Yeldon because I think he's more guaranteed of the workload.

If I knew that the workload was going to David Johnson, I would rather have David Johnson. Mike, out of all the guys you've talked about so far, who do you take ahead of David Johnson? Everything is so value-dependent. But, I mean, I really like Abdullah, and I think Abdullah is going to be a seventh or eighth round guy. Maybe. It's really hard to judge where these guys are going to get going because the hype train is going to get boosted from camp. But I really think David Johnson is set up.

to succeed. All right. Well, we have three more guys that I want to talk about, but let's do it kind of quickly because I want to make sure we get to the mailbag. I'm listening to mailbag. We got about five questions we want to answer in there. So the first guy real quick, Buck Allen, drafted by the Ravens in the fourth round. What are your takes on Buck Allen? Because I think I've made it pretty clear that my lack of confidence in Justin Forsett this year is, you know, I just don't believe that Forsett's going to be the guy all year long. To me?

It's complete trouble for Lorenzo. Lorenzo, regrettably. Did we care about Lorenzo before? Yeah. I did. I didn't. I have to care about a backup for a Mark Trisman system, but here's the thing about Buck Allen. Here's his reception total. 41 for 458. The guy can catch the ball. Mark Trisman wants a running back who can catch. Justin Forset is clearly still the number one guy to me, but now they have a backup. To me too. Who will spell Forset.

and can still catch... He can still do the playbook, essentially. I don't know that Taliaferro can do that. He's a one-cut guy. Yeah, yeah. No, I was really unhappy with this pick because I've been so on the Justin Fawcett train, and he's...

This guy is perfect fit for Trisman system, which is great for the Ravens. And the Ravens historically, they pick well. They know, you know, they've got a good track record of rookie picks. And so I think he's going to be a good player. I agree with you. I think it's the end of Talia Farrow. I think he's going to be phased out as far as, I think that Buck Johnson, Buck Allen is going to. Not everybody's a chance. We got Duke Johnson, David Johnson.

Uh, anyways, I think that he is going to take that number two spot and be the spell. Um, yeah, I don't, I don't really have any problem with telepharaoh myself, but, um, I think, you know, you gotta have depth. I don't think they hate him. No, he'll still be on the team, but, you know, four sets older, too. So, despite the lack of carries. So David Cobb of the Titans, second pick of the fifth round. Trouble. Uh, Bishop Sankey was a, uh, disgusting experiment last year.

If I had to spend something in the running back Bishop Sanky potential direction here, I would say their offense got better, right? You got Marioita, you got Green Beckham, and then you have... They also drafted a guard and a fullback. Julius Tom. Right. And then the other piece would be that... What's it? Listen. No, no, no. Brains off. Wake up. David Cobb is more of a shown green than he is a Bishop Sanky. So he could be taking Green's role and not taking Sanky's role.

And Wizz and Hunt has a propensity to hate rookies. He ate this for his entire career. He's done that. But I don't know. I think it's real trouble for Sanky. You don't like that 3.2 a carry or whatever he had last year? I hate 3.9 a carry. So 3.2 makes me vomit in my mouth. Any other take on him, Jayor? Okay. I have to talk about this last guy because he is the steel of the draft for me. I think Jay Jai, going to Miami in the...

Fifth round. I am not. I believe I'm in line, by the way, with the coaching staff in Miami. I'm not a Lamar Miller workhorseback guy. I think that was necessity last year, not what they want to do. It's the reason they had no Sean Moreno in there before. Jay Jaya is a second round talent. And all the knee discussions, I think that's going to speak to longevity of career. I don't think it's going to speak to these first couple of years. And so you got a guy coming in to a really good, you know, what do we say? Talent, supporting cast, opportunity.

Ding, ding, ding for me. I think Ajaii has the chance. I'd take him ahead of Cobb, ahead of Allen, ahead of Duke Johnson, ahead of Coleman, ahead of Abdullah. I think he has a chance to be a really, really good year one running back. I think the thing that's missing there for me is that third ding. I don't know that the opportunity is going to be there as far as, you know, I don't think he's going to be ahead of Lamar Miller. They like Lamar Miller. I mean, they waited to the fifth round of draft a running back.

You know, he fell into his lap, and they must have been, you know, he must have been the highest player left on the board. But, you know, they passed the first few days on the running back position. So I don't think they saw it as a complete dire need. Otherwise, they would have drafted one on those first two days. And so, you know, we'll see. With his knee position, I don't think they're going to make him a workhorse. So maybe this hurts Lamar Miller and also limits Ajai. But, yeah, I'm not super sold on.

I mostly agree with Jason. I don't, I think they waited on a running back because they liked what Lamar Miller can do, but they found a guy who can be a fantastic third downback. Lamar Miller is not, that is not his strength. Lamar Miller, to me, is a two-down back, and now they have Ajai to come in and catch the dumps from a man tanny. Fifth best running team last year.

With Lamar Miller. No, I know. I know. That's what they like to do. And their team is, they have a good offense. What does this do to Lamar Miller to you guys, draft-wise? Does this drop them? A little, a lot? For me, it definitely does, because I mean, but I'm alone on this, on thinking of Johnny's a chance to be. I like it because I personally like Lamar Miller. I like, I want, it's like. How many carries do you think Lamar Miller had last year? Oh, maybe just under 200? I was thinking two.

What? No, go ahead. I was going to say 260. I thought he had some. No, he's just over 200, 216. There's some more carries to be had in that Miami backfield. Yeah, Ajai, and he'll get carries. I just think that Miller's going to be the featured two down back, and he's going to be a good player. Definitely a place that, yeah, we definitely need to go with that one, Miller, because he will be the starter to begin with, but I think Ajai will have an opportunity. We shall see.

Camp's going to say a lot to do with his knee and his situation there, because I'll back off of him quickly if that knee's going to impact him, or one. To drop, where people were proclaiming him the third best running back in the draft, and that guy drops all the way to the fifth round, we don't have access to the medical that they do. Clearly, there was a big issue. The reports came out that his knee is bone on bone. So he'll give you a couple good years.

Maybe. Or games. How long is that thing going to hold up? I think that was just rumor, man. He scared off a lot of teams. Just rumor. All right, let's get into the mailbag. Mailbag. All right, this first email comes in from Jonathan. He says, how important is it to look at offensive line when deciding between running backs? And then he asks us to do a show where you focus on O lines and how that impacts their teams. Jonathan will definitely be covering that in our team previews on future shows. But how important is that?

I think it's pretty important. I mean, if you're running back and you don't have any holes open up for you, you can't do much. But I think it's mostly on the extremes. You know, you look for lines that are really, really good. You know, like we were talking about Arizona or you're talking about Dallas. And you look for lines that are really, really bad. And otherwise, if you're not in one of those two, I think you're just kind of average it. I don't get scared away because you're a little bit better or a little bit worse on, you know, on that medium grade line.

What do you think, Mike? I think an offensive line is very important, especially when you want elite production. I just don't think that with how talented everyone is just to make it into the NFL and how fast you have to be. A running back, unless you're Adrian Peterson, that's like the only guy I can think of who can do it by himself. There's not, I can't think of another runner who is able to do it. But.