Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - Running Back Fallout from the NFL Draft, News, Questions

and they, I think the Rams understand what they have to do in their division, and that's be able to run the ball. And so what does this mean? What does this mean for Trey Mason? Because this is just a nasty situation from a fantasy perspective. To me, because, so they're beefing up the line, everybody's going to be super excited for Todd Gurley. Trey, you're not? No, I'm not. I'm excited for Todd Gurley, circa.

2016. The masses will be, though. Just from name recognition. Yeah, people are going to be excited about him. And Trey Mason's value is going to plummet. I mean, this is a guy now that you're going to be able to draft. I would guess in the eighth or ninth round. And I see Gurley ending up on the Pup list. I think he's going to start there. I do too. And so when you're talking about a rookie on the Pup list, he's not just going to come back, okay, I'm ready to go. And then Fisher's going to say, okay,

10th pick in the draft who has an ACL that he's repairing, go out there and take 30 carries a game. He's going to be worked in very slowly. This is not the year for Gurley. I'm all aboard next year. But to me, that's what makes Trey Mason such a, he's going to be a value pick. The offensive line is better. Jeff Fisher is saying we're going to run the ball. They have the granite statue, Nick Foles in the

It's going to be throwing the ball. I really, really see the St. Louis Rams going to the run game, and I like Trey Mason for where I can get him now. So I say you, Andy, agreed to screw with the hot take? Pretty similar opinion. My opinion was that, you know, Gurley doesn't.

If he's not on the pup, he's still going to be eased in extremely slowly. He probably misses the first month of the season. And so Trey Mason is going to represent a huge value where he's drafted. And then you're going to be in a timeshare situation. You know, you're looking Dynasty Keeper. You're not looking at Trey Mason like any type of value. They invested a first round picking girly, and he's their back of the future, like you said. But in terms of value, Trey Mason is going to surprise people from the seventh, eighth, ninth round, like you said. So I think you just have to, you know.

Pay attention at camp. Pay attention to what Gurley looks like if he's out there, if he's not, what their situation is. But you don't invest that. Like you said, you don't invest a pick like that and then force 30 carries on a guy. Right. This is where, you know, remember Mason and Stacey, their rookie years, even theirs, it was the end of the season where they came on as a fantasy relevant guy, which could be Gurley situation. It's why Gurley's not at the top of my list at all in terms of rookie running backs for this year. I would much rather. If I'm in a redraft.

Right now, even for where you get him, I think the values, you've got nowhere to go but up. You're going to be getting him super late. I think you can even get him later than what you were saying, Mike. That depends. If he's pop listed, then Mason will go up into the sixth or something. I don't know. And so hopefully he's not pup listed, but still misses a couple. But I would rather have him than DeAngela Williams. You know, let's say you're the...

You're the levy on bell owner, and you need somebody for the beginning of the year. Trey Mason is a perfect candidate, and Zach Stacey leaving town only helps. Zach Stacey going away says, hey, if it's not, if it's not girly, then Trey Mason's the man. And so, yeah, I like his value. And there, and not to mention, he has an ACL tear. So it's not like it's out of the realm of possibility that he comes back and gets injured.

you know, Trey Mesa could have long-term upside for where you're grabbing. And Jeff Fisher, Jeff Fisher will play two backs. I don't know if you recall a situation. Yeah, Benny Cunningham. Well, in Tennessee. Oh, yeah. With White and Johnson. I mean, that was like the OG lightning thunder. There's no way that Gurley takes over a workhorse role completely in year one. Yeah.

Year two maybe when that offensive line comes around and his knee is a year removed and he's healthy. But, you know, of all the destinations for Gurley, this one, we didn't see it coming. And it'll be interesting with those offensive line picks, what happens to Gurley long term. But, yeah, my guy is the one we're going to talk about now. This is by far, well, I say my guy not as though I predicted something right about him. I say my guy isn't.

Melvin Gordon's the only rookie running back that I say is a sure-fire solid situation at the running back position where he's probably the only one I see with RB1 upside because he's coming into a situation there in San Diego. I'm buying into him. He's super talented. He's so much more talented than Brandon Oliver and Donald Brown. It is not going to be hard for him to find the field. Woodhead might have that third down roll, you know, Gordon can't pass to protect, whatever. But that first and second down roll and his

home run ability, his breakaway ability, his talent is just going to rise to the top. He's on a good high-powered offense, and he is the clear cut end zone, you know, goal line back. Every time that there's going to be a touchdown opportunity, it's going to go to the guy that they just trade it up to in the first round. Kind of. Woodhead, Woodhead's going to be in there. It's funny because I think Oliver would.

fit a goal line role. I'm going to go ahead and say right now that if you're in a touchdown only league, I think that he's a great pick. I think you're right, Andy, there's

potential to be an RB1 here. And I think the floor on him is very high. You know he's going to get the work. Of all the rookies. Yeah, of all the rookies, you know he's going to get the work. He's in a good offense. You're not going to be stacking the box against him with Philip Rivers. And I believe he's going to be the goal line back. I mean, we'll see as the year goes on, but I think he really will get the goal line work. And that gives him, you know, what's his baseline on touchdowns if he has the goal line back? You know, eight? Yeah, maybe. The, my...

My one concern, which was I was listening to Adam Azor, who's going to be on the show, he had an interesting point of he went and he looked back at the competition he was playing, Melvin Gordon. When Melvin Gordon was playing any kind of reputable rushing defense in college, he was an average back, which we can have, we can ask Adam about this when we bring him on. So I thought that was an interesting.

piece of information. Not that I'm not completely sold out on Gordon. I think he's going to be good. But my, you guys have kind of eloquated everything on him. But for me, what really stands out is Woodhead, where Woodhead is, his role, I think, is locked in now. He's going to be the third down guy. And Woodhead thrives in that third down position. He's going to be a fantastic value. Yeah, coming off an injury, though. And I'll be curious to see.

The Chargers want to run the ball. I got a pretty interesting stat on them. When they had a running back in the Rivers era, when they've had a running back go over 100 yards in a game, they're 35 and 4. Pretty good. That's pretty good. That's not their record when Philip Rivers goes over 300 yards. That's the dependency on the running game. And they traded up to get Gordon. They knew they had to fill the hole that Ryan Matthews left.

And I think the talent here is just so high that if I had to bet on any rookie running back making an impact, I bet on Gordon. Well, the nice thing about, you know, the inferior competition that he was playing in college as far as the defenses is he didn't go to a division that's just stacked with Rundees. You know, he didn't go to the industry west. So that's going to be helpful for him as well. And actually, that leads, you were saying that, you know, Mike's hot take and then your guy, Gordon.

The next guy on this list is my guy. No. Yeah. No. I couldn't be more different than T.J. Yeldon, the fourth pick of the second round to the Jacksonville Jaguars. They had been rumored I read today to have wanted to move up and grab a Gordon or a Gurley. They end up with T.J. Yeldin.

which is short for Tren Richardson. He's a difficult case because the knock on him is the exact same knock on a guy like Richardson, where he came out of Alabama. He doesn't have breakaway speed. And so I'm worried about him. I'll lay it out and let you come back. But I'm worried about him from a production standpoint on a team like that where they have a time share. They went through a bunch of guys last year, and Robinson's still going to have a role because he can break away from guys. I don't think Yeldin can do that. So for me,

He's pro-ready. I guess he comes out of Alabama. He's pro-ready. He can catch passes. But I'm scared of that. It's a dirty whirlpool of running backs in Jacksonville. So Mike's sitting back with his arms folded, a scallop on his face, waiting to hear the T.J. Yeldon love. All right. You ready? You ready for this love? I will silence myself. All right. T.J. Yeldon is a good to back.

He is not great. He is not supremely talented, but he is actually a very, he is a good running back. And of all of the players, and what I like about him is value. I don't like that he's going to finish stronger than Gordon, but you're going to have to get Gordon right now. I'll bet he's going in the third, latest. Third or fourth. Yeah, latest fourth. But you're getting him early.

T.J. Yeldon, on the other hand, seems like he's coming into a situation where I believe he's going to get the predominant amount of carries. And most of the other running backs that were taken, I mean, Duke Johnson or the Browns, you know, you're going into a place where there's just no role or you've already been established and the teams come out saying that the running back that was already there is the predominant back. And in his situation here, T.J. Yelden is coming into a situation where I believe he's going to be the starter. And while I don't.

of Jacksonville and I don't love T.J. Yeldon, where you're going to get him, the value you're going to be getting from a running back that you can put in your lineup and get points, I believe is going to be a really good value and a good late round pick. So that's where T.J. Yeldon would be my pick not from the highest ceiling, but definitely from the best value. Fool me once. Shame on me. Toby Gerhardt. Fool me twice.

It's not happening. I think he said that wrong. Yeah. Wait, you won't get fooled again. You don't fool-a-fool-er. Yeah. If the volume is there, he's going to be a productive back. He'll be able to get it. He'll be a fine, low and RB2. He'll be Storm Johnson with a little bit better. No, no, no. He's much better than Donard Robinson, who is very good. He's not better than Denard Robinson. We don't know that. He's a completely different kind of back. At least Donard Robinson offered fantasy value.

Exactly. You're speaking of my point. Because he was fast. That's why he, because he would break him. I think, I think this debate is at a minimum, the illustration of the Jacksonville backfield situation in fantasy. Toby Gerhardt last year. You have other guys that they, who's the other guy I'm thinking of, not Storm Johnson, but maybe that is who I was thinking of. Is Dernard Robinson, Storm Johnson, and Toby Gerhardt. Yeah, okay. So I'm just terrified of that. I'm just terrified overall. I'm going to let somebody else do it. But he is a solid,

uh professional running back exactly and he'll get points but i just uh man so i don't know let's talk take a late flyer on this guy's my point it's not gonna be that late there's probably a three or four round difference at least between gordon and him right now so i agree with that point that you know i'd rather have a young guy like that and take a shot on him than a denard robinson i guess that's the question do you take denard robinson or do you take j yeldon oh i take yeldon yeah yeah i agree with that so

Amir Abdullah running back. My guy. Silliness. My guy. For real? The first thing I have to say about Amir Abdullah is that, and maybe this is where we're going to differ, Mike. I don't think he affects Joyke Bell at all. Almost nothing. Because I think they drafted perfect compliment to Joach Bell. I think this destroys Theoretics value because Amir Abdullah is a past catching compliment, speedback, not between the tag. I think they love Joach Bill.

I know you've been sour on Joyke Bell, but from watching him, owning him, I think they just love the heart he plays with and the between the tackles that he plays with. So to me, I think theoretic, move him off my board completely. But for me, Abdullah, give him Reggie Bush's numbers, call him an RB2 upside. That's it for me. I strongly believe I got some hot takes here for you. This is Joyke Bell's last year on the Detroit Lions. Hmm. Abdullah. Did you talk to his mom?

You called his mom again, didn't you? Leave his mom alone. My sources will remain anonymous. But this, this to me, is the slow play. Abdullah will not be the main guy right away. I think he takes over as the pass catcher right away. Right. And I think slowly, slowly, you've got to have the faith and you've got to ride it out.