Early Busts & Values, Three-Headed Arguments - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/27

pedigree type of situations. So Allen, Hertz, Mahomes, Lamar, Herbert, Burrow, Kyler, Lawrence. All those guys, higher fantasy finish in year two than year one for all of them. So if you believe that the player is, the only one that I could find that had a worse fantasy finish after a kind of like, I would say popped on film type of situation was Dak because Dak went from like six to 10 in his second year. I would imagine Baker as well, right? Oh, Baker got worse. That's what I'm saying. Baker didn't. Baker was a tough one because he didn't play until the second half of his rookie season. So you didn't have like the ability to go and look and see that. But per game, I'm sure you're right. But in recent years, if you showed it, you did get better. But QB6 and 5 is already baking in the better. So if he finishes at QB6,

5, 7? If he's at 7, that's the problem. The margin for error of being a bust pick. Would you feel happy? No. If he is the quarterback 7 or quarterback 8, that's going to feel like a catastrophic pick because meanwhile, guys going multiple rounds. If he's there, Joe Burroughs probably ahead of him. You know what I mean? Like one of these, the pocket passers who, so let's go like. Stroud, Herbert, I'm not going to put down. But Jordan Love, which Jordan Love had more fantasy points per game than C.J. Stroud and is going after him. Those guys are just put him in a mixer and pull the best value. And pull one out because to me, odds-wise, they're all really, really close. And again, it hurts because C.J. Stroud is such a good player.

But we know historically, here's another one for you. Historically, quarterbacks drafted in the first round who had a touchdown rate over 4% in year one. On average, they declined the following year. And if he has any kind of decline in his passing touchdown rate, then it's, then it is a disaster. Yeah, right now I have a hard time imagining CJ Strouds throwing fewer touchdowns in year two with additional weapons and health. Like Dell was gone, no digs. miss Schultz for periods of time was a rookie yeah rookies like the number one hardship for rookie quarterbacks is touchdown so i don't i don't think that's changed i'm just trying to give the other side like we have been a universal three-pack saying strouds being drafted too high so i wanted the opportunity to kind of think through it a little bit more on my end of like you know we all know what we see with our eyeballs one of the better quarterbacks of the next generation he's great all right i'm going to go with zay flowers is my bus pick yeah

And it's a weird one. I'm going to be honest with you. He's a weird player. One of the weirdest I've ever seen. In fact, I'm going to start with just a wild stat comparison situation because he was a blend. Zay Flowers was. And this is why you saw the highlights. And then you went and looked at your fantasy stats and you were like, this wasn't the year that I thought I had. He was a weird blend of all or nothing where 27% of his targets were behind the line of scrimmage. Okay, that was the sixth highest. But then 20% of them were 20 plus air yards. And there were only a handful of players that had that type of mix where you had a super high A dot, which is averaged up the target, or a super low and a super low. And it was these players. Listen to this type. This will make sense. Ron Dale Moore. Okay. Yeah. Rondale Moore in Arizona. Bombs behind the line of scrimmage. Kind of depressing. Not fun.

Jackson Smith and Jigba was one. Yeah. Marvin Mims was one. Calvin Austin, Jalen Hyatt, Chris Moore. So it's kind of, it's kind of an athlete that a team doesn't know how to use in the right way, maybe, and also doesn't have prototypical wide receiver one. route tree skills or something to that extent. Now, I'm not saying Zayflowers can't advance into that, but he is an undersized guy. He has much more Rondale Moore, right, than a Devante Adams is because he's not built like Chase or Adams or one of these big-bodied guys. He's quick twitch. He's kind of used the gadgetry behind the line of scrimmage. And he's a respectable receiver that I think will be extremely important for the Ravens.

And yet when Andrews was on the field last year, his pace was 82 and 900 with no touchdowns. So you're undersized. You don't have that normal route tree. You're used in gadget ways. If you don't have a big play, you're disappointed. And you had a lot of opportunity without their number one, who is Mark Andrews, out on the field last year. And so to me, like right now he's going ahead of Amari Cooper. He's going ahead of George Pickens. He's going ahead of Kirk and Ridley and Tank Dell. So Zay Flowers is a player, I think, that doesn't even have a necessarily defined home on the offense in terms of how they're going to utilize them. You bring in Derek Henry now. I am just scared of that touchdown variability in the big plays. When they don't happen, I'm not sure Zay Flowers is a player you're happy you started that week. Because I don't know if a bunch behind the line of scrimmage targets with no touchdowns is going to add up to what you would hope it added up to. Yeah, Flowers to me is a...

tremendous NFL player and I think in an excellent wide receiver who will have four to five spike weeks so it's it's not that he will be useless for you but when he doesn't have the spike weeks it's that's when it's going to be rough of and just it's to me it's the easiest it's the low hanging argument low hanging fruit argument of he did everything with mark andrews off the field like that but that is everything to me Mark Andrews is the number one target for the Ravens. He's the number one target for Lamar Jackson. And Zay Flowers was de factoed into that when Mark Andrews was missing for the second half of the season. Again, the spike weeks will happen. Like the end of season for Zay Flowers, the final five games, four of them, three of them, he was top 10, four he was top 15. So the spike weeks will happen, but.

If it's not a spike, it's not going to be a, well, it's, they did okay for me this week. You're going to have a lot of weeks where you look, you took an L and you'll look at Flowers output and go, that's, that's the reason why. Unfortunately, in the Lamar Jackson era, big ADP bets on wide receivers have also not turned out very well, whether it was Hollywood or, you know, Tori Smith or. Who was I thinking of Bateman? Oh, that's who I was actually thinking of Bateman from years gone by. It's a tough bet because the offense just, you know, good defense. Some games they win on the legs of Lamar Jackson and nobody has a big game. So again, it's good to put a bow on it where these busts don't mean that these players suck. It doesn't mean that they're guaranteed to fail. It means that some things are working against them and it might not represent a good value on your draft day.

I certainly like a lot of wide receivers going after Zay Flowers. The ones you mentioned were like, I would take most all of them. Cooper for sure. Amari Cooper being behind him is nonsensical, but he is the scariest one to me, where it's like I could, you know, a year two wide receiver, who I think is exceptionally talented, who's got to compete with Bateman and Nelson Agalore as the primary wide receiver. Like, you could see a leap forward and we could eat crow on this? I do agree with you, but he's a scary. He's scared. I'm not wanting to bet against him, but I've been avoiding him. You're letting me do it instead. Yeah. Cool. All right. Let's jump into some values. Values. All right, Jason, you're up. And please say Devante Adams. Devonte Adams is my value if he drops into the sixth round. Okay. He's got a ways to go. Otherwise, my value that I want to bring up is the antithesis.

of Mike's bust. And maybe mention what a value is to the new listeners here. Sure. Just in terms of what the context is of what we're talking about. A value to me is someone that represents like you're drafting a player at their floor and it is a really sure bet that they are going to outperform what you're having to invest to acquire this player. And they're just kind of mispriced in ADP. That's how I look at it. Someone that I think when you look at who's going around them or where this. player archetype usually slots in is significantly higher. And right now it's just not happening for that player. Those are the values I try to find. And when I say it's the antithesis of Mike's bust pick, that's because Mike feels like there's a too high of an ADP on a pure pocket passer. Well, I have too low of an ADP on an exceptionally mobile rushing quarterback. And that is rookie Jaden Daniels for the Washington commanders. Right now,

He is being drafted in the double digit rounds as the quarterback 15. You can easily take him as the second quarterback on your roster if you aren't bullish on him. I am perfectly fine taking him as my number one. I have drafted him, you know, multiple rounds ahead of ADP because I think that's where he belongs, not going crazy and taking him in the fifth or anything. But like in the fifth right now is where Anthony Richardson is being drafted. This is a, why is he being drafted there? Because mobile quarterbacks can break fantasy football. They can have exceptional spike weeks. They can finish as the wide receiver won, especially if they could combine it with passing. When you see those great, like Lamar Jackson's, you know, record breaking season was because he excelled as a passer and he was as good a rusher as we've seen in the NFL.

Jaden Daniels is a remarkable rushing athlete. And even though it took him a little bit of time in college, his last season, you know, when he won the Heisman over Caleb Williams was outstanding. He looked like a great passer. There's more evidence that we've already seen to say he's a better passer than Anthony Richardson. Anthony Richardson's a projection going forward. Anthony Richardson has the size and the girth on Jaden Daniels. Yeah, he's got it. But at the same time, you know, Lamar Jackson's always been more of a Jaden Daniels type. And when I look at where he's going, you know, this is a discount Anthony Richardson. This is the only, you know, real true dual threat quarterback you're getting in the double digit rounds. You know, fantasy scoring is broken. I hate that mobile quarterbacks are so important for fantasy football when they might not be as good in the NFL.

Justin Fields was so great on so many weeks and then can't even be a starter in the NFL. But here's how good Jaden Daniels is at rushing. Daniels was 43% of his team's rushing yards last year. That's the third highest ever for a first round quarterback. At LSU, he posted the highest scramble rate of any college quarterback in their final season with 250 attempts. Scramble is what I want. I'll be careful, Jaden. Be careful. Be careful. Here's the one thing I would... He's made a popsicle sticks. The one thing I would say, if I could give Jane Daniels a piece of advice, when you break and you run which you are exceptional at and you make people look foolish, next time after you make that first guy miss, just keep your eyes open, dude. Just keep your eyes open. I don't know. He has to be.

He has to be because after he makes that first dude miss, he just runs right into an insane tackle. So there are some things to work out with here. But while he's active, while he's healthy, while he's on the field, I don't see him not being a good quarterback. The comp to me for Jayden Daniels in his final season has always been Kyler to Murray. It's that combination of he's not the best rusher in the league. He's not. He's not Lamar Jackson, but he's so much better of a passer than a lot of these pure rushing quarterbacks. And so when you combine him both, Kyler's the comp. Well, Kyler came in in his rookie season and was the quarterback seven with, you guessed it, Cliff Kingsbury, the offensive coordinator that now I did not guess that. I was talking to the audience. They're so much smarter. They're like, oh, it's Cliff. It's Cliff Kingsbury.

Look, Cliff Kingsbury, how the teams function under him, number one and no huddle rate for four years, first in neutral pass in each of Kyler's first two years. The fantasy community has gotten smarter, and we know that we need to draft mobile rushing quarterbacks. For some reason in 2024, we are letting Jaden Daniels slip behind Caleb Williams, which I look, dynasty, okay, long-term outlet, outlook, great, but I want a rookie quarterback who's going to run the ball. That's what Jane Daniels is going to do. If I can get him in the double digit rounds as the quarterback 15, my first or second quarterback, I'm happy to do it. I think he's a smoking value there. I feel like the last big conversation that we had to have that was similar to the Jane Daniels discussion. I guess it was Anthony Richardson last year. But before that, it was Trey Lance. We haven't had that conversation in a while about like if they get on the field.

even if it takes him a while to acclimate as a passer, which we knew Richardson probably would. He had a game where he completed 11 of 27 passes or something like that. It still doesn't matter, right? It still translates to fantasy value and you just, you know, you accept the obnoxious scoring and you turn away and you close your eyes. Yeah, take advantage, man. If he closes his eyes. Play by the rules of your league and dominate. All right. So, Jane Daniels, look, I've risen statistically, you know, what I have in. in my projections on him recently as well. So I'm with you on that. I think it's something we can't ignore. I don't know if you know this. You actually are the highest on Jaden Daniels. He is your quarterback 11. Yeah, yeah, I knew I'd moved him up quite a bit. I didn't know where he landed. But yeah, if he's on the field and is the starter. Which he's already taking first team reps in camp. Yeah, I do. I mean if he doesn't get exploded. Well, right. Quick break. Back with Mike's value pick.

All right. We are going through the busts and values individual picks on today's show. We just got done with the bust picks. And then Jason shared his first value pick for the show, which is Jaden Daniels. Mike, who you got? What if I told you? Uh-oh. There was a guy that finished last year as the running back to the like a running back to the second best running back. Yeah. Okay. As in the running back to who finished with. Let me do some quick calculating here. 21 touchdowns. And he's being drafted outside of the top 24 running backs. It's Rahim Mostert of the Miami Dolphins. And that's being egregiously hyperbolic and loud of, look, he's not going to be the running back too. But he's being drafted in the back of the seventh round. RB 25 on sleeper, RB 28 on underdog in best ball.

And here's, it's Devon A-chan, explosive young player, one of the fastest guys in the league. But right now, Rahim Mostert is being drafted completely, completely like it's locked in, H.N's going to have the vast majority of the work. It will not be a timeshare in the slightest. It's just going to be A-chan, A-chan over and over. And I think that that is just a very silly thing to think about Rahim Moster. Sure, he's old. But the Miami Dolphins, with their actions, they gave him a two-year extension. They said, we're going to roll this thing back. They have a day three rookie, which I'm not going to factor him into the plans because they had other depth that they needed to replace. But the fact that Rahim Moster is going so, so late, and even if he's nowhere, even if he's not in the top 10, it doesn't matter. You're getting a tremendous value of a running back that you can play. Going back and it looks.

I don't know why the Miami Dolphins would look at what Devon H.N. His health through last year's training camp till the end of the season and say, yeah, this is the guy. We're going to give him just 20 plus opportunities every single week. They're not going to do that. In the final two weeks, the final week of the season, Rahim Moster was not playing for the Miami Dolphins. Devon H.N. was the starter. He played 63% of the snaps. He got 11 opportunities. Why? Because Jeff Wilson got opportunities as well. And so for the thought process that the dolphins are going to completely flip and move to Devon H. I think it is absolutely crazy. The offense is going to be spectacular. I don't like talking about that offense at all with the idea of them just handing the keys to somebody. I think that's just such a, I'm with you on that. Like if you listen to Mike McDaniel talk, he talks about the fact that,

like Rahim leads the room. Like he talks about it this offseason. Like Rahim's the leader of the room and then we've got great players in the room. So, you know, the age is what scares people off. There's a bit of a efficiency problem with the Mostert season that reminds me of Debo finishing number two. Right. When he got all those running back opportunities and like he wasn't being drafted as number two either because we all looked at it and said, boy, that was just, that was a special year. And I think we have that with Mostert. Yeah. And it's 100%. It's, it's, it's,

Age and A-chan, and we've seen this just historically running backs with 15 or more total touchdowns. If you're young, your ADP just gets on a rocket ship and takes off. If you're older, people are like, yeah, I'm going to overlook it. And honestly, the truth is, for a lot of old running backs, I would overlook it as well. Except this is, it's the same thing. Like this is a. Run back. This is not a new team where the old running back, we're going to see if he can take over. This is the exact same team with the exact same offensive scheme. And for the most part, the same offensive players. They had 20 carries inside the five. A Chan's not going to get 80% of those. Rahim Moster is going to be involved. He's going to be involved in the passing game. So for him to be going outside of the top 24, I think it is.

It's a free starting running back. Yeah, a free starting running back. And they will death. I mean, yeah, he's older. They just sign him to a two year extension this off season. Oh, yeah. Yeah, I got that done. Yeah, thanks, Andy. All right, you wanted me to talk about my value pick. Yes. Yes, I do. This is a tough one. No, you can't use a ticket on this. We got to hear what's going on. All right, all right. This is actually a really tough one to talk about. I got about halfway through your value pick. And I was like, I don't want to do this.

I was like, I do not. I was like, I got to pick somebody else. So I did. No. No, I'm sticking. I thought you made a mid-show pivot. Look, the name that Jason is just. Hold on. Can you use it? Can I get the nasty boy? Oh, no. Steel underpants. You need them, brother. You're giving me the steel. It's Quentin Johnston, all right? It's Quentin Johnston. Yeah. Hey, starting the value opportunity. He's undrafted. Is there? He's undrafted in most leagues, if not the last pick in your draft. I'm going to ask you some questions. I'm going to try to set the table so that you can at least just accept two seconds worth of Quentin Johnson as a value. Okay. I'm going to clear my biases and just listen. Yeah, I would clear out all the film from last year as well because he did not have a good season. He was terrible. But Mike Williams gone.

Keenan Allen gone. Let me ask you some questions to set the table. Did the Panthers have a good passing offense last year? No. Did the Broncos have a good passing offense? No. How about the New England Patriots? Did they have a good passing offense? No. What about the Chicago Bears? No. And neither did the next team you say. What about the Jets? No. Oh. Okay. No. To wait. They had a passing? So listen, those are terrible, awful. And any of those have good quarterbacks that I mentioned? Any of those teams? I mean, you could argue Justin Fields-ish, but he's gone. So, you know, Bryce Young and then Russ, gone. Okay? The Patriots? Yeah, gone. Not very good. So bad quarterback, bad offenses. And yet, there were diamonds in the rough. There were nasty boys. Oh, you want that? Yeah. Adam Thielen in Carolina. Cortland Sutton in Denver. Kendrick Bourne before he got hurt. Had big games in New England.

You had when Cooper Cup was out, this was one where you did have a good quarterback, but you saw Tutu Outwell have big games before Cooper Cup return and Puka broke out. DJ Moore in Chicago with bad passing offense. He obviously is a much more talented player than Quentin Johnson. And obviously, Garrett Wilson got a baseline level of stuff done in New York. So my argument for Quentin Johnson is you have the best quarterback in Justin Herbert. that any of those teams minus maybe Matthew Stafford of all the teams I mentioned. I always mention it this way, which is they get the ball. Like every team gets the ball half the time, right? Like you get offensive possessions, no matter how bad you end up on the stat sheet, and then you end up with these players that are going to be started on your fantasy rosters, which is what happened last year with Cortland Sutton. He got started. So what happened with Thielen? He was on fire to begin the year. Quentin Johnson, here's what I know.

Justin Herbert is a good quarterback. Yes. Harba is a good coach. Yes. And he's going to play every down. Yeah. Because you don't have a choice. And you could take every bit of offseason talk about Quentin Johnson, which is, you know, they're trying to talk them up and be positive. And look, you could throw it all out the window. They're going to give them the shot. They invested a first round pick. They are pot committed on Quentin Johnston being. part of their future. And I don't think any of us believe Joshua Palmer is the kind of player that just like, you know, can take over an offense. And Ladd McConkey's a rookie. He may end up being the best player that you have. Yes. But I think Quentin Johnston, for free, is one of those players that is in the category of, he'll probably be on the waiver wire in a lot of leagues, and he'll probably be picked up in week one or week two by almost every single person because they're going to give him the opportunity to do it.

And he is a first round pedigree guy. I went and watched every single snap of him last year. We talked about it earlier on the show. You might not have listened earlier in the off season. Congrats on that. You didn't have to hear me talk about Clinton Johnston again. But they look for big plays in the Greg Roman offense. Romans come out and talked about being more balanced. I've been saying all off season, you're probably undervaluing the passing game in terms of the chargers because you have a great quarterback and you don't run every play, especially if your defense gives up points.

To me, it's a starting wide receiver that may be the best starting wide receiver fantasy-wise on this roster that's free. So you're talking about an offense that has like no one being drafted at wide receiver. So I'm going to be the guy that said his name. Me. I, Jason Moore, am the one that said it. I actually love every single thing you said. And I agree with every single thing you said. This is why I honestly, I was. maybe going to make Ladd McConkey my value pick because I agree with all the things behind. That's fine. Yeah, that's fine. The system and the reality that Quentin finds himself in, that's what I agree with. I just don't think Quentin might be good enough to actually succeed. I'm a huge lad believer. So everything you said, I agree, I just shift the purse. Yeah, I mean, you have to pay an eighth round pick for Ladd and you get Quentin for free if you want to do the...

the bet. Both of those are value spots if they do break out. And, you know, it'll be very interesting to watch what that offense does because it's being disregarded. They're saying the right things too. You're hearing about he will be used more not just as a downfield threat, but we're going to use him as a playmaker. He made plays after the catch last year on a handful of times when you're like, okay, that's a skill set. And because he had that and that was like a one of his. Trump cards in college. Like he was great after the catch. They didn't they didn't focus on using him that way last year. So that that's like that's the hope for me. He's also their biggest touchdown target physically and also a player that like his 22. So I'm going to give him just a small tiny bit of margin at 6 4, 215, 22 years old with a great quarterback that maybe just maybe.

He's draft worthy in fantasy at some point in time. I will say the value to drafting him is that you're going to see what this team, what this offense, what this system looks like week one, how he comes across. He's the type of pick you want to make your last pick in a draft where week one you're going to learn information. You know, if he comes out and has 7, 8, 9, 10 targets and they're utilizing him in a great way. Or if you come out week one and all of a sudden Ladd McConkey's got a 30% of target share, you're going to know enough information to go into that week one waivers and be like, I got to hold this guy or I've got something here or he's expendable. And so I like that. I do think the real value pick here is that the Chargers passing offense is undervalue. That doesn't mean that it's great or going to be a complete league winner. But right now that.