Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - Week 12 Thanksgiving Episode Part 2, Matchups, Mailbag

I do agree that I think Winston is a decent start here, but I really want to see what he's going to do against a Colts defense that is not good. Speaking to moving forward with Winston, this is a nice barometer check for me. Yeah, he's actually had 12 touchdowns, including the touchdowns on the ground, in the last six games.

only two interceptions, and those both came in the same game. So there's only, in the last six games, he's only thrown an interception in a single game. That's not to say that that's going to be the trend going forward, but he's better than we have been looking at Winston-like, because he got off to such a bad start, having that four-interception game early on, right after a two-interception game. So he's definitely startable. All right, let's talk about Doug Martin.

Let's talk about Doug Martin. He had a huge week last week. He's kind of known for this, these breakout monster games. He had a couple duds, and then all of a sudden he gives you 200-plus yards on the ground. Are you extremely confident with Martin this week going up against that Colts defense that ranks 21st in the league? I have him ranked this week as my number one running back.

So I would say I'm... So you're somewhat confident. I am somewhat confident in Doug Martin. I don't see any reason. They hand the ball off to him. He's got the third most carries in the league. He's been running great all year. He's had a couple games that have been down. But if you watch the film, he has looked like he looked when he was a top back a couple years ago. And the Colts aren't going to be the team that just completely bottles him up. So I like Doug Martin in this game quite a bit.

So the line is the Colts are favored. Is that, that's correct? Favorite by a field goal. Hmm. So what do you get? It makes sense. They're at home. Yeah. So I was just wondering what you get? We don't normally talk that, but just, what were you guys? Do you think the Bucks can take this game? This is going to be a... You know, I actually believe the Colts will win it. I'm at home. An interesting trivia fact here. Let's see if the listeners will give them a chance to play.

of I got to remember them all now. The undefeated quarterbacks who have started at least three games. Yeah. And you had... You have three of them. I know them. That's good. So we had Tom Brady. Cam Newton. Cam Newton. And Matt Hasselbeck. Matt Hasselbeck. Has not lost the game this year. And I don't think he loses this one, to be honest. This is a game that if it was in Tampa, I'd probably flip...

I think the line would flip, and I think people would be on board with Tampa. So who are you starting from the Colts? Because I'm not playing Hilton if I don't have to. I'm starting Frank Gore. Yeah. I've got him as the highest ranked RB2. And what about pass catchers, though? I could see myself playing Fleener if I was desperate at the tight-in position. Fleener's kind of the only one that I would take the gamble on. And then obviously, you know, yeah, yeah. So anybody else who want to talk about Evans, Vincent Jackson?

Yeah, Vincent Jackson, I think, is an interesting guy. Do we, are we right back in with Vincent Jackson? He had a pretty good game last week. He took his time coming back and looked fine this last week. What's the health of Vanta Davis? Is he? That's a good question. He hasn't looked good anyway. Yeah, well, that's a very mediocre year. That's why I was wondering. It's a good question. I think.

I feel pretty confident with both of those guys in this game. I do, too. Being Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson. Correct. And also, Austin Sfarion Jenkins is reported he is going to be back any month now. Any month? Any month. He might be back by February, but he's been practicing for about a year. That's how I felt when Dorio Green Beckham was not getting targets. I was like, any game now. Yeah.

Any quarter now. All right, Chargers, going to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars. We've talked about this game a little bit in the context of a lot of starts that we're happy with. Bortles and Yeldin are both starts of the week for us. Alan Robinson is in line for a great game against the Chargers defense that just is no good. And so the question, I think, is not so much on the Jacksonville side. Let's focus on what people are trying to figure out here, which is...

what can I do with the offense of San Diego that was so productive from a fantasy perspective earlier in the year with Woodhead, with Gates, with Rivers, with Keenan Allen early in the year? So what do we expect from them? Give me the projections here because I like Stevie Johnson. I made him I started the week from volume perspective PPR leagues. But what's Gates going to do this week? I am really struggling with what I believe in the Chargers offense this week. They have to go across the country.

to Jacksonville, which is already kind of one of those, okay, let's make a note of that. Philip Rivers is coming off of back-to-back bad weeks for fantasy. Last week, especially was just horrific. And Danny Woodhead, man, Danny Woodhead is, last week they just barely used him at all. I think he had one catch, and this is a guy who has nearly 50 catches on the year, and you don't involve him. San Diego.

insists on Melvin Gordon. I would too. Would you? We completely disagree on this. I would insist on Melvin Gordon getting him experience carries at the NFL level when you're 2 and 8 or whatever they are. Yeah, you've got to see what you have at him. That being said, they gave him the ball 15 times last week and he got 37 yards, a healthy 2.1. Yeah, I totally agree. This is talking NFL football. Yeah. And from an NFL football, I don't, I mean...

Is Melvin Gordon? You drafted him to be a running back. I don't care what yards he gets. You just got to give him the ball so he can get used to it. I'm not confident in Woodhead. I actually have Gordon ranked ahead of Woodhead this week. The guy that I am a little bit confident in is actually Antonio Gates. I think Antonio Gates is going to be all right this game. He was a very good call on your sit of the week last week. I liked that call then. Another week to get a little bit healthier.

And Jacksonville, I think that that's one of their porous areas of their defense. They've given up a lot to the tight end, a lot of receptions, a lot of yards, and a decent amount of touchdown. So, you know, when you're talking about safety valves for Philip Rivers, if Gates is healthy enough to just walk around, I think he's going to be a decent option. I'm not afraid of playing Gates this week. I would love to see.

Someone just walk a route. I've always wondered when that Yao Ming type of football player is going to come. Wait, that's just like seven foot, eight feet tall. Yeah, and they just literally say, hey, if we've got third and short, you walk out here and we're going to throw the ball 10 feet in the air, and you'll either get hit before you catch it. We'll get a penalty or you catch it. Just hold on to it. What's funny is...

You and I have actually talked about that before. Seriously, if I'm a coach, I'm looking for that. That's actually been a discussion. You're looking for the seven-foot, seven-inch guy that has like a wingspan. Yeah. I mean, you can't get up there. A guarantee. I need three yards. I'm, you know, I'm first and goal at the two-yard line. You can eat big old mitts, big old grabbers to just go up there and get it. You look like a seal. Hey. Hey.

A seal of touchdowns. Whatever works. All right, we're going to move on. The Dolphins take on the Jets, and I'm going to give you the highlight here that stands out to me. Chris Ivory is the fifth ranked running back in fantasy football right now. The Dolphins are the 31st ranked run defense, and yet in our consensus rankings, we all have Ivory outside the top 12. So this must be all momentum, right? Why is he sitting out of the top 12 if he's the fifth ranked running back? Part of the...

Part of the reason, and I'm not necessarily confident in that ranking. Maybe Ivory needs to go a little bit higher. We've seen him with a... Mangold should be back, right? And he's been great when Mangold is there. Yeah, he'll be back. Yeah, I think that the big issue here is that he's losing the third downwork now that Belal Powell is back. And so in games, he's not as on the field as he was. He's not on the field. I mean, we saw last game, right? He was...

frustratingly off the field because Belal Powell was back. So maybe that's just some recency bias. I don't expect the Jets, in all honesty, to be down to the dolphins in a way that forces Belal Pau on the field. So I think when I look at these rankings, I maybe need to bump Chris Ivory up just a little bit. He should be an RB1. For me, that's the concern of Ivory has not been the same guy.

I agree that with the center coming back, and it's still possible he doesn't play, but I think he'll play. So it greatly affects Ivory's numbers. And there's just, and I agree with Jason that I think the Jets will be winning this game against the Dolphins. But there's that risk now that if the Jets go down by 10 points, they're going to put Bilal Powell out there so they can run a faster-paced offense and just dump the ball off to Powell if they have to.

which was a concern I was having a couple weeks ago when I was advising to sell ivory. So I still have those concerns. Ivory can get the touchdowns. Ivory is better. I have a higher opinion of ivory, but ivory is almost in that Jeremy Hill vein. Now, like I said, I have a higher opinion of ivory than I do of Hill at this moment, but there's just that concern.

that if he's not going to get a touchdown, you don't know what you're going to get from Chris Ivory right now. Chris Ivory benefited from a very hot start for the New York Jets. They're five and five now. When they started the way they started, they were winning games, they were ahead in games, and Ivory was getting a lot of production out of that role. Like you said, as an owner of Ivory, the whole season, I don't like Seymbleau on the field. I know it's going to be the reality when they're down. Now, now if Fitzpatrick doesn't play well this game,

You might see a change at quarterback. You think? Yes, I do. I think it's possible. I think they're thinking about it. The one thing that I'm just remembering now, the last time Chris Ivory played the Dolphins was that London game where it looked like Chris Ivory was literally running down a slope.

into the Miami defense. He is part of the reason already that they are ranked as the 31st run defense. Right. So that's a factor. I guess that can give me a little bit more confidence. I know that the Jets took care of them last time. So maybe I'm going to move them up. Now this game features, and this is not Chris Ivy, it features the number one running back in fantasy since week five. Lamar Miller. And that's Lamar Miller. Now he's had a couple games that were just insane. But Andy, Andy, this is the new.

York Jets. They're like the best run defense in the league. I agree. I don't think Miller has a great game. Let me give you some stats to say why Lamar Miller is going to be okay this game. All right. Three of the first week. Three of the first week. Three of the first week. This is good argument so far. Tell me more, Captain. All right. Three of the first weeks of the year. This is what the Jets gave up to the running back position fantasy points wise, including a half point PPR. Six points.

nine points, four total points to the running back position. This is three of the last four weeks, 22 points, 28 points, and 26.5 points. They're not the same run-dee that started the year. Now, they're still a good runny. I'm not saying they're bad. They're not going to have Lamar Miller go and put up 45 against them. But the way that they didn't use Lamar Miller last week, I think is going to be seen on film, is going to be something they correct. And I don't think the Jets are going to be that same team that limited

the Miami Dolphins to four fantasy points on the ground in week three. Guns Mahoney. Four. They're the Miami coach. He went full Joe Philbin on Lamar Miller last week. Seven for 44. Well, we have to remember that the offensive coordinator didn't change. So, you know, I think this week, right?

Well, yeah, Bill Laser is still there. So this is one of those things where when Guns Mahoney came in, he said, we want to be a more balanced, more running team as the year has gone on. Maybe that's getting away from it. And that's why I think this- Jai is involved now, too. Yeah, this week I expect them to get more back into the run. All right, let's talk about the wide receivers for both teams. Marshall and Decker are- Starts? What? Starts. What about them? You play them both.

Oh, I got really thrown off when you said that because you jumped into the sentence and I was like... Because he was finishing your sentence. I get you now. They're both great options. No team throws more of their passing touchdowns to wide receivers than the Jets do. In fact, Brandon Marshall, you know, we talked about him. He's been so... Perceptively, he's been up and down because he makes like a weird mistake every game. Like, even last game, I'm watching the game and he's... They're rushing to try to get a score at the end of the game. And he's just like not on the line of scrimmage or he like...