Starts of the Week + Week 16 Breakdown, Playoff Pressure - Fantasy Football Podcast for 12/19

The over-under is just 42, and the dawn of the Penix era. Did you hear where Michael Penix was, what was going on? Was he at Costco? He was at Costco about to get a hot dog. A hot dog? And he decided against it. Why did he decide against it? He wasn't hungry anymore. Now, I don't know if this is like, oh man, I shouldn't eat a hot dog. As in because he found out he's starting? Yeah, I don't know if he was. So he got nervous. Maybe. I don't know if it was nerves or just responsibility. Remember when you used to eat a lot of food before you played in games?

Oh, I would, I needed my Subway meatball. Sub? Footlong. Yeah. That was my fuel for football. I remember a double burger before a basketball game. That one was a bad idea. You did vomit a lot. I did vomit. But I will say this. When you're playing an offensive lineman, big meals are much more okay than when you're playing basketball. That's fair. Don't do the big meal before basketball. Jason disappeared during warm-ups for a while. Over the last four games, Atlanta has been 31st in pass rate over expectation. They were trying to keep the ball out of Kirk Cousins' hands. What does this really mean for start-sit decisions?

Like, Bijon, you're playing. His DK rushing and receiving line is 114.5. Yeah, Bijon, I think is pretty neutral. At first, I thought, well, he takes a tick down. But I believe that they're going to ease Michael Penix in. This is his first game in his NFL career. He's also coming off of, you know, an injury. So, this is a rookie making his debut. And I don't, you know, you saw that with Bo Nix. Bo Nix now is allowed to throw it more and look more. But early in the season, they ran the ball more. They protected him a little bit more.

They eased him in. You saw that with Jaden Daniels as well. So, this first game, I don't expect high-flying, great passing from Michael Penix, which scares me with Mooney, who goosed last week. London. He's someone that's out. London, to me, is still startable. London is going to be the number one target for the team or, you know, just is the primary pecking order. And he's a star. He's an elite athlete that I think can do stuff on his own. So, Drake London, to me, he's a wide receiver two this week. Not, you know, some teams might be able to move on without him,

but I would be starting him. Malik Nabors was your start of the week. His reception line is five and a half. On the course of the season, the Falcons are 32nd against wide receivers. But if you look at the last six weeks, they are 32nd against wide receivers. If you adjust for schedule, they are dead last against wide receivers. So, yeah, go ahead and throw up Malik Nabors, no problem. Jerome Tracy's a question. Drew Locke is going to start in this one? Is that what we're hearing? That is what I have last heard. Yeah, Drew Locke is going to start.

Tyrone Tracy is a nerve-wracking start that I'm trying not to make. If I'm in a semifinal, that's a wild card I'm very scared about. Yeah. It's a good rush defense. Locke did not. I mean, the opportunities should be there. He should have more than 10. Yeah, I mean, the opportunities will be there. That's one of the nice things about Tyrone Tracy. You could probably go back to him. Him or Najee? I'd go Najee. Hmm. two-point over under the Giants only projected for 16 points, so you're really hoping that Tracy is part of that 16. That he has the one touchdown?

Yeah. Let me see here. So, let's just look. Drew Locke started two games, played the full games in weeks 13 and 14. In weeks 13 and 14, Tyrone Tracy, and this is kind of exactly what I expect him to have, which is a fine start. He was the running back 17 and the running back 13. 13 fantasy points. I mean, you could do worse than that in the flex. That's great. Yeah, that's fine. 16 fantasy points. One of those games was the 10-target game in the passing game. So, it's not a great matchup. I don't think you... I'm not bullish on him by any means, but I don't think you have to bench him from a volume standpoint.

We'll take a break. We'll jump into some more matchups. All right, Jason. Detroit is 12-2. The Bears are 4-10. It's in Chicago. The DraftKings Sportsbook line, Detroit minus 6.5. The over-under is 48. It was a 23-20 Thanksgiving Day game last time these two played. Detroit ended up on top. That was the insanity at the end of the Eberflus timeout conundrum. Detroit has 10 significant defenders on IR. It's unbelievable. Aiden Hutchinson, Aleem McNeil, Carlton Davis, Alex Anzalone, Derek Barnes, Broderick Martin, Khalil Dorsey, Malafonwu, Emmanuel Mosley.

Their defense is gone. And now they lost David Montgomery. So, some of their identity on the offensive side... Now, they've still got the same offensive line. And Gibbs can more than, you know, handle that load for a couple of games. But I do think that their identity might shift a little bit. This might be a team that has to throw the ball a little bit more as the defense gives up a little bit more. Well, I talked about Laporta. I like Laporta's opportunity in this game. You've seen Tim Patrick more involved. You've seen Jamison Williams be really hot and cold.

Tim Patrick is actually kind of interesting. It's hard to recommend starting him in the second round of your playoffs. But, you know, you look the last two weeks. Seven targets. Eight targets. A touchdown in each game. Two in one of them. This is a team that's going to score points. And he has been on the field. You know, 66% of snaps last week. Up to 81% of snaps. Caught the touchdown with eight targets. So, he is mildly interesting in like a break glass emergency case. I mean, I guess that's not true because I would probably start Adam Thielen over him.

And if you're that low. You're just interested in seeing what happens. Yeah, maybe he's more of like a DFS dart throw. Jameer Gibbs has a rushing and receiving yard line that is 127.5. Yes, I was looking at all of his lines this morning. We'll talk about that. But his expectation is wonderful. Well, Chicago is a terrible run D. The game script lends itself towards, I mean, they're six and a half point road favorites despite the injuries. Because Chicago just can't get it done on offense in any sort of consistent way. Certainly not consistent. They get it done on offense from time to time.

And often in the second half. I was going to say, and that's not like this game versus that game. That's this quarter versus the other three quarters of this game. Honestly, if you're playing players in this game, you're excited that Detroit's beat up on defense. Oh, for sure. You want more opportunities for Goff to throw the football because he's had some big games. I actually think that the weapons on the Chicago side are not that bad. Like, Caleb Williams. To play? Yeah, to play. Like, DJ Moore, I think, is a fine play. Caleb Williams is not someone I'm starting in single quarterback leagues.

But he's a guy that in your super flex leagues, I'd be throwing him in as that quarterback too over some other names that might feel better. I mean, we saw this matchup in Detroit a couple weeks ago. Caleb Williams was the quarterback six, threw three touchdowns over 250 yards. The defense is even further banged up than it was then. So, Keenan Allen, I would play, you know, in a flex way. DJ Moore, you probably should play. His receiving yard line is 60 and a half yards. I think they'll score three times. I think there'll be three touchdowns on the Chicago side.

So, wherever your conviction is on those players, maybe it's a swift and then a couple wide out situations. Combat's not really involved. Yeah, I think this game could be pretty fun. Yeah. I think that one could be more fun. You don't, you hope the weather's fine. You know, Jared Goff doesn't like the weather. It's going to be very, very chilly. It'll be cold. It's going to be out. The winds look like, I mean, it's early right now. 10 mile an hour winds, which is not a big deal. You could throw through that. It's really 15 is that breaking point. Tell that to Kirk Cousins.

Yeah. Well, Caleb Williams' arm is a little bit stronger than Kirk Cousins. The Browns are 3-11. They take on the 6-8 fighting for their lives. Cincinnati Bengals. The DraftKings Sportsbook line. Cincinnati heavy favorites. 7.5 points. The over-under is 47. The spread didn't change with the news that DTR was going to be the starter because Jameis Winston had been playing so poorly that the Browns are putting in a player they know will play poorly. That's really where you're at. This is very similar to the Levis Mason Rudolph. The Titans know Mason Rudolph is not a good quarterback. And yet Will Levis has put them in a position where if you're getting poor quarterback play,

they just are tired of the turnovers, which I don't know if that goes away with DTR. I don't think it goes away, man. I think the turnovers go down with Rudolph. I don't know that they... I mean, they probably go down with DTR because they won't have him throw the ball 45 times. But this feels like a team in the Browns that are ready for the draft. Burrow, Chase Brown, Jamar Chase, T. Higgins are your locks on the Cincinnati side. Not a lot of question marks there. You know, Mike Gisicki is always tempting for tight end starts, but he plays 30% of the snaps and it's terrifying.

And you don't... I worry with this game when DTR wasn't made the starter. It really... You know, our champ, champ, champ league. And I almost... The name I almost brought up instead of my old man combo of Mike Evans and Devontae Adams is Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow's the guy I need. And he's been so unbelievably great. But when Jameis was the quarterback on the other side of the ball... You were stoked. Holy Joe Burrow. I was ready for that 50-point burger in this game to just go insane. And Jerry Judy to be, you know, the wide receiver three on the week.

With DTR there, they might not need... I mean, this is great maybe for Chase Brown with a huge lead. You know, his DK Russian receiving line is what? 108 and a half yards? That's not that far behind Gibbs. But I worry that Joe Burrow won't have to do much. They played last when it was Watson, not Winston. And it was 21-14 and Burrow was the quarterback 17. So that'd be the fear. But they should be able to... You know, you just hope Burrow gets it done early in this game. And that the defense, Cincinnati, which is a streaming play this week,

they don't score two times for you and hurt your offense. Yeah, Jerry Judy, I think, is one of the biggest question marks. I think he's the biggest one. Maybe the biggest one on the week. Is that what you were going to say? That's just what I was going to say. He is. Because he's been unstoppable. He has gotten people to the playoffs. And I know in the league that I have him in, I had the bye week. I've made the decision to start Jerry Judy this week. His receiving line is 60 and a half. He's clearly the one for this team.

I don't think Cedric Tillman comes back from concussion protocol. I don't think David Njoku does either. This is a team that, like I said, I think this is a team getting ready for the draft. When they made the transition to DTR, I think they are saying we're done with this season. I really believe that was... DTR to DUN? Yes, exactly. So Jerry Judy, though, with the receiving line, with the fact he's the only show in town... Exactly. And the fact that... And he can take a little underneath. Yeah, the Bengals are not a good defense. Shakir or Judy? Judy. Ridley or Judy?

Judy. Yeah, okay. Ridley's closer. The Rams are 8-6. Jets are 4-10. Difference makers, I talked about my belief that the Jets, with Aaron Rodgers, it just came out that he's getting healthier. I think you can see that on the field. He ran for 45 yards last week. The DK line here, Los Angeles, minus 3. The over-under is 46 and a half. That's not a big line, considering the records of the teams. And the recency of the teams. Like, if you look at the Rams, you know, they've won four of their last five games. Seven and two since the bye. They beat Buffalo.

You know, this is a team that has been playing good ball. We have been debating the Rodgers versus Stafford. If you needed a second quarterback, super flex, emergency start. Amazingly, their passing yards prop is the same. Oh my gosh, are you kidding me? 244.5, which is high. Wow. But I don't mind either one. And I told you, I think of them identically, and then we get word that the line is the same. So that's how I see it. I mean, either player, look, what do you have? Two quarterbacks that can have a game but don't often. With two elite wide receivers for both.

Adams and Wilson have been playing well. Two top 12s. And they're both supposed to have a great running back. Yeah. Are you forgiving? One of them does. Yeah. Are you forgiving Cooper Cup? Oh, yes. The Cooper Cup, it was almost my start of the week. This is a guy that needs to be, I mean, the reason I didn't make him my start of the week is because I think a lot of people who have him aren't in the playoffs anymore. It might be a little bit too irrelevant. But if you got through the Cooper Cup, which you did, you had him in three different leagues

in the playoffs. And two of them I got through. And you got through it in two. I am 100% forgiving Cooper Cup. I mean, the Jets are a matchup you want. This is, I mean, you just, you ignore it completely. It kind of feels like this one's pretty easy then because both of the wideouts on both sides are playing. Yep. Adams has been on fire. Garrett Wilson's receiving line is 73. Ooh, that's nice. And then Kyron Williams getting it done. Brees Hall, you have, I mean, that's to me, it's, I don't have start of the week conviction like you do.

Because I didn't like how often I saw him on the field last week. And the fact he's missing time due to injury. I am much more of a pump the brakes there. Still finished it running back 20, but it was 48% of the snaps. And I think, I think it'll be similar this week. And I think that's because of Isaiah Davis. Yeah. I mean, Isaiah Davis will get a little bit more work, but I, I love the fact that Braylon Allen is banged up right now that Braylon. Wow. What a mean guy. You love the fact he's hurt, huh? I, that came out wrong.

I, for Brees Hall, one of the things that gives me confidence is that I, I am not confident that Braylon Allen's going to be able to be on the field. So that's a good point. Isaiah Davis has been, um, he's looked really good. Um, and he's been playing, you know, 40, 50% of the snaps, but Brees Hall is further removed from his injury. I think that these last couple of weeks against the Rams, against Buffalo, he's, if you made it through, if you have Brees, I think he's going to take you to a championship. Philadelphia is 12 and two, the commanders nine and five.

This is one of the big games of the week. DK sports book line Philly minus three and a half. The over-under is 45 and a half. And you know, the, is this the get right game for sake one from what you've been dealing with it? You know, his line is 98 and a half rushing yards. The offensive line for Philly, unbelievable. The defensive line for Washington awful. It feels like a sake one game to me. That that's the headline of this one to me is it feels like this is a game that sake one should be able to set the tone.

I worry about the injury. Um, he was clearly not the same after getting banged up last week and he's on pace to break the all-time rushing record, which is kind of a big one when you've got like decades long records that you can break. Um, he's going to get the volume and the opportunity. I just hope he is healthy. If he's healthy, you're a hundred percent, right? It should be a, a massive sake one Barkley game. That's where you can beat the, uh, commanders defense a little bit better there. They're top 10 against quarterbacks against wide receivers, but middle of the pack against

running backs. And dead last against, uh, when it comes to adjusted yards before contact where Philly's offense gives sake one, the most yards before contact. It's a really nice O line D line matchup for the Eagles. Jane Daniels. You've talked about him in the start of the week. He is a player that there's a lot of fear in the fantasy world this week. I love watching Jane Daniels play unless I'm playing against them. And I hate it so much when you watch him play, he gives you confidence and peace so often. And you did spend a lot of last week saying he's so good.

Yeah. So good. And so it's one of those things where, you know, you're going to be watching these games playoffs on the line. Play the player. That's like really good. Are you going to extrapolate that then to confidence with Terry McLaurin? Yeah. I think you have to, I mean, Terry McLaurin, there's no way you can mention him when he has been as good as he's been. I'm going to be holding my breath. 63 and a half is the receiving line for him, which I was a little bit sad to see that low. You look back the last three games, 102 yards, 73 yards, 73 yards.