Starts of the Week + Week 16 Breakdown, Playoff Pressure - Fantasy Football Podcast for 12/19

Brees Hall or Calvin Ridley against Indianapolis? I'd go Brees. Brees Hall or Khalil Shakir against New England? I would go Brees. Okay. That's what I'm doing currently before you even said any of this. Those are the decisions I have in a semifinal matchup. It's a tough one. Brees Hall, the Burns have been real. I mean, we shouldn't be talking. He shouldn't be allowed to be in starts of the week. I don't think very many people. Remember you've been saying, like, people with Kamara, people with Gibbs, they're in the playoffs? Yeah. You might not be talking to many people with Brees Hall.

Well, that's why I've got James Conner out there. Yeah. No. And he has – Conner has a chance at going – well, he has a chance at doing a couple things. He was the RB1 last week. Could be again this week with Carolina dead last against everything against the run. You didn't even mention Trey Benson, Amari DiMarcato, both hurt for Arizona. I did. You did mention that? Did you mention that? Well, I mentioned Benson. I didn't go all the way down to DiMarcato. But you're saying, look, he could be the number one again, and he will be after this week.

Like, he's playing in this game, right? Yeah. He's healthy. Yep. So, he's just got to do two more weeks to finish the season. This week and next week? Or two – you're saying including week 18? Yeah, it's got to be including week 18. Do we care about that part? Yes. Just give me a fantasy season. I don't care. Well, I mean, I don't care. But when we say he's never played a full season, if he misses week 18, he still has never played a full season. Okay. Yeah, that's fair. Where are we at? Wide receiver? Wide receiver. JSN versus MIN, Minnesota.

JSN this week is my start of the week. Regardless of whether Geno is back in 100% or it's Sam Howell fooling it around, he is leading the NFL in slot receptions by a lot. Like, he is the premier slot receiver in the NFL. He has 70. The next closest, 52 by Khalil Shakir. You know, last year, CeeDee Lamb led the NFL with 69 receptions in the slot. This is where he belongs, and he's been a difference maker for your fantasy team. He's on pace for just a record-breaking season for JSN, and he's made Metcalf look like a questionable dynasty situation right now.

And you don't have a choice against Minnesota. You've got to throw against them. He is both a big play potential type of guy, a yak guy, but also a really helpful volume play. So I'll go JSN. Yeah, I'm going to go with Malik Nabors going to Atlanta. I just talked about it on the Dynasty podcast that came out yesterday, which is easy to do. But Malik Nabors is on pace for the most targets and receptions ever for a rookie. That's good. He missed two games! I mean, he is the—it doesn't matter who the quarterback is. You can put out Tommy Cutlets.

You can put out Drew Lott. Anybody. I don't even care. Boyle. Who cares? Just throw the ball to Malik Nabors. Everyone's going to. Atlanta's defense is straight diaper gravy. They are 30th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Dead last in receiving touchdowns allowed to wide receivers. Malik Nabors absolutely needs to be in your lineup. If you're wavering, if you have confidence problems because of the quarterback, you're saying don't worry about it. Yeah, because Malik Nabors has the ability to do what you need in playoffs, which is to go nuclear. Sam Laporta's my tight end start of the week.

Last week, eight targets for Sam Laporta. Let's not forget what he's capable of. Seven for 111. Been a top-12 tight end three straight weeks. The usage has gone up. David Montgomery is gone. And I think Sam Laporta's role in this offense is going to become more necessary, has become more necessary, facing a Bears defense that has struggled. Have confidence in Sam Laporta in a week where some of us are really scrambling for the tight end position. Yeah, and I'm going to give people confidence in a player that I've seen the questions. You've had them. Like, when you're talking, do I keep rolling Travis Kelsey or do I go to the waiver wire?

And I'm going to keep rolling Travis Kelsey. The last month has been a rough stretch for Kelsey. Four straight games outside the top 12. But he hasn't goosed the way that a lot of these waiver wire tight ends can. And also during that stretch, he has a 23% target share and the third most targets among tight ends. He's getting the passes thrown his way. The matchup here is pretty darn good. Over the last six weeks, you've got the Texans, who are 30th in scheduled adjusted fantasy points, allowed to tight ends, allowing 3.8 more per game than the player's average. The Chiefs are kind of in this weird must-win mode to keep that bye week, to keep that number one seed.

And I think that the quarterback, you know, oh, Mahomes is hurt. Maybe he won't be as mobile, assuming he plays because he's practicing in full. Or maybe he doesn't play in his Carson Wentz. Either way, I think Kelsey becomes even more important to this offense. He's that safety blanket where maybe Mahomes isn't as mobile and doesn't have time to extend the plays. He's going to be looking to Kelsey, I think, early and often in this matchup. We do. I have some starts of the week for Mike here. I don't know if you knew this. At quarterback, he's going Trey Lance this week.

Okay, that makes sense. On brand. Running back, he's actually running a vintage player here. Jeremy Hill. Oh, the tattoo. Jeremy Hill is his running back. That's his chest tattoo. Yes. Yeah. And then at wide receiver, he's actually rolling Antonio Brown out there. Always a good idea. One of the goats. CTE energy. And then at tight end, he's going Blake Jarwin. Blake Jarwin. I am shocked he didn't go Adam Troutman. I am really shocked. I mean, I know he's a Blake Jarwin guy, but I mean the Troutman. He did catch a touchdown last week, right? I don't know. Yeah, we don't know.

Who cares? We don't know. All right. Let's move on. We'll jump into the forecast here after a break. Jason, is there a, you know, you've got your league with Mike, the Dino Junior League. You've got your matchup this week against Schneider here in the office. Yeah. Is there a player? Because I think everybody's got a name on their rosters. Is there a player on your roster that you're like, I'm not winning without this guy doing something this week? Is there a... I would say I'm not going to win. It's the combo. It's ironic. They just both went off. But my old men, Mike Evans and Devontae Adams, that combo, they're going to lead us to another

championship. It's up to the old men. Yeah, it's up to the old men. Yeah, last week, if you could just repeat that, that'd be cool. Yeah, just print it two more times. Print that script. And if there's anything old men are known for, it's being able to just keep the same... Keep it going later in life, down the stretch, late in the season. Yeah. I just love the way we talk about fantasy players. They're so old. These young super athletes. They're so old. Have you, anybody here watched the Aaron Rodgers Netflix special yet? Anybody? I doubt it. I have not.

People shaking their heads. Yeah, no one's paid me a million dollars yet. Okay. Interesting clips coming out of that thing. You should... I'm going to tune in. I've seen bits and pieces so far, but, you know, I think it talks about like, you know, Favre and the transition, how horrible it was for Aaron Rodgers. It shows a lot of this stuff with him and Jordan Love. And it has their head coach out there talking about that relationship. I thought maybe somebody had seen it. I'll check it out. Yeah. He gave you lots of good memories there in Green Bay, mister.

There was a window of good times with Aaron Rodgers. Very, very good times. All right. Let's jump in. It's time for Fantasy Forecast, presented by DraftKings Sportsbook. All right. Two Saturday games this week. Oh, boy. Saturday games, Sunday games, Monday games. Here we go. Houston, 9-5. The Chiefs are 13-1. Kansas City at home, still 3.5-point favorites. Overrunners, 42. I don't think they'd be 3.5-point favorites if Vegas had any inkling that Patrick Mahomes would be missing this game. Kansas City with a two-game lead in the AFC playoff picture for the bye, which is, you know, that's a prize. Oh, for sure.

Buffalo is going to win their next three games. That is going to happen. They're going to end 14-3. So, Kansas City plays Houston. It's a big one. Houston could put themselves in position this week to move into the three seed or at least have that opportunity. Kansas City, down the stretch, plays Houston. Then Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh. And then Denver in Denver. Yeah, those are all games they could lose. This is why this game feels, you know, pretty important. And the nice thing for the Houston Texans is that they might not have as much to play for, depending on the outcome of the Steelers-Ravens game.

And they're both Saturday, but the Steelers-Ravens game is after theirs. So, this is full motivation for both teams in the Texans-Chiefs matchup. So, we haven't really seen what I would call, I don't know, watchable, consistent, exciting offensive football from Houston. I just feel like there's... Or the Chiefs. I thought you were going to say the Chiefs. I mean, this looked like a game on paper when they were making the schedule. They put this Saturday, you know, Christmas week type of game. And they were like, the Texans versus the Chiefs. Stroud versus Mahomes. This is going to be a 53-point over-under game.

You know, such an important matchup. And while it's important, neither team has played fun-to-watch football. Yeah, the Texans have... You know, CJ Stroud has one game over 20 fantasy points. So, there isn't the... You know, I mean, Aaron Rodgers last week had a big fantasy week. Like, CJ Stroud's not giving you those games here and there. Is this game super simple from the Houston side? Is it Joe Mixon and Nico Collins didn't log out? That is. I don't think... Nico's line is 80-and-a-half. Yeah, I mean, Nico is as sure a thing as it gets. Joe Mixon is a tough matchup.

Kansas City is really, really good against running backs. And... I think a lot of people are going to be... Like your Jaden Daniels situation. Mixon will be the Jaden Daniels for them. That running back where they're nervous about the injury and the start. Yeah, I mean, I'm more nervous about Joe Mixon than Jaden Daniels because of the injury. It was like when Jaden Daniels was wearing the flak jacket last time around. And he was injured. He didn't have a good game. So, Joe Mixon is a little bit scary. Maybe you're on a stud-loaded team where you can move away from him.

But I see him as a high-end RB2. Nico is in every lineup. And then you're done. You're not playing with anything else. You said it. One game above 20 points for CJ Stroud. Now, on the other side, Patrick Mahomes, two games above 20 fantasy points on the season. This is what I'm talking about. Like, there's not a lot of pieces here you really, really want. Also, I think there's some confusion. Like, Isaiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt, it seemed like it was done two weeks ago where it was like, okay, all the work started going to Pacheco, and it seemed like this past week would be when Pacheco is,

you can confidently have him in there as the locked and loaded starter. And then both players got 13 carries last week. And he didn't do much with the 13. 32 yards on the ground for Pacheco. His three games since returning, running back 47-31-39. I would be trying really hard not to play him. I mean, the Houston defensive line is a tough one. They're a top 10 over the last six weeks. They're top five on the season. You know, Jalen McMillan in the flex or Pacheco. I'm probably going McMillan with more upside. Yeah, I think that... I mean, that's a tough one.

It is a tough one, but I don't blame you for looking. That's the level of players you're talking about. Ramondre you'd play over Pacheco, right? I would definitely play Ramondre. Najee. Najee, for sure. Ford, for sure. Yeah, I mean, that's the level that you're out right now. And really, what wide receivers are you confident in? None. Hollywood Brown is going to be making his debut. He should be active for this game, and I don't expect him to be someone you're starting, but he can siphon a few targets away from DeAndre Hopkins or Juju Smith-Schuster. Really, like... I think Kelsey's the only...

Kelsey's, like, the only playable guy on the team. Worthy is the emergency flex. Xavier Worthy is the emergency flex. Just for upside, breakaway touchdowns. Yeah, and I think his role is defined in the offense, whereas Juju and Hopkins and Hollywood and Watson, and those guys are going to rotate through. Worthy seems to have more consistent snaps. And, you know, you're talking about him not being able to move screen game with Worthy. 11 targets last week was a high for him. He's been playing, you know, over 80% of snaps, which is an uptick for him. So that'd be the dart throw to me.

I'm not trying to play him. We saw it with Rushy Rice last year. The rookie was more involved down the stretch. They've hit a point when it was like, okay, now we've had good plays from him, and we have had good plays from Xavier Worthy. And we had that from Rushy Rice, but he wasn't on the field all the time. And then they made that transition. So hopefully it's just weird timing with Hollywood coming back to be like maybe the transition will stick. So for an exciting game for the playoff picture and for the teams and the records, it's not necessarily standing out as a bunch of fantasy options beyond, you know,

a lot of confidence in Nico, your confidence in Kelsey, and then Joe Mixon has to play for you because Joe Mixon's been that good. Yep. The other Saturday game is Pittsburgh-Baltimore. That's fun too. I mean, Pittsburgh's 10-4, Baltimore 9-5. It would be so much more fun with George Pickens. Like George Pickens is everything to me in this game. If you have a Baltimore Raven, you want Pickens. Yes, that's what I'm saying. The whole game, the over-under sitting there at a perfectly aligned 45 points where it's like teetering on it could be good, it could be bad. Baltimore six and a half point favorites on DraftKings.

Pittsburgh won this game 18-16, and we need more points than that. In week 11, that was the matchup. We need more points. We do. And I don't know that you're going to get it if right now, I mean, it's early in the week, but George Pickens did not participate in practice Tuesday or Wednesday with a hamstring injury. You also have some weather concerns, temperatures in the 30s, 15-mile-an-hour sustained winds. So, if the Steelers aren't able to put up points, which they have struggled to do so without George Pickens, because they don't have another option. Calvin Austin, Mike Williams, they're not good enough.

You need to be able to hit a big player, too, to flip the field. Yeah, so without George Pickens, I worry for just about everyone not named Derrick Henry in this game. Including Lamar Jackson? A little bit. I mean, I'm a lot less worried about Lamar than I'd be worried about Henry. I'm not worried about Lamar. Like, I'm never going to bench him. But I think his upside becomes a little bit capped because if they're up, I mean, they're almost a touchdown favorite in this game. The Derrick Henry experience, he's only got one top ten finish in the last five weeks, and it was number nine overall.

So, for a player that had, you know, one, two, three, four, five straight weeks in the early part of the year, it has kind of shifted. And, you know, you've seen Lamar. He came out the week before last that I got to run more. He went out and he ran more last week. Made mama proud. And TJ Watt not practicing. Yeah, I mean, I don't hear what I'm not saying. Lamar Jackson is locked in. He has been so good. I'm just saying the Zay Flowers, Rashad Bateman, Mark Andrews. Like, I want the tide to raise all ships here, and I just don't know if the Steelers will be able to keep up.

25 to 19 is the implied point totals for the matchup. Najee Harris' rushing line is 47. If you had Najee Harris and Mixon, you're going Mixon? Yeah. That's not close, right? No, I would go with the guy that got you here who's been unbelievable. Madison or Harris? That's unbelievable. Alexander Madison or Najee? I would go Najee. Okay. Zay Flowers' receiving line is 61 and a half. He is always pretty much their leader in total receptions. But if you look at the last five weeks, it's a little bit like he is due for a touchdown, maybe? I mean, you could say that, but his line is...

Yeah, Bateman keeps hogging him. Yeah, Bateman with the big plays. Mark Andrews catching a lot of touchdowns. Seven top ten finishes since week six. The Muth has been luth for three straight games. If there's no Pickens, I think Friar Muth is fine. I mean, he's been a top ten tight end three straight weeks. Do you agree with that? Yeah. No, I think Friar Muth, I mean, is necessary without Pickens, and you could do worse than that. Is that the guy on the waiver? Nope. Okay. I don't even know what you're talking about. Yeah, and so little update here. Looks like Rappaport was talking this morning that it seems like Pickens will miss this week.

Still early enough in the week, but keep in mind there's a Saturday game, so I guess it's not as early. You know, missing the Wednesday practice, which you don't usually care about, actually isn't quite the same. All right. Ready to talk about some Sunday matchups, Mr. Moore? Yeah. Let's talk about a super fun one. Like the Giants-Falcons? Yeah. Giants are 2-12, battling for that number one spot, Atlanta 7-7. If there was ever a time you'd want to give your rookie quarterback an opportunity, this is a good matchup. When you're 8.5-point favorites, even with him, Michael Penix will get the start.