The TRUTH: Fantasy TEs in 2019 + Super Bowl Reactions

He wasn't the same dominant force that he has been in the past, which it certainly could, that could bounce back immediately. Just a weird thing of the red zone targets went down. But there's not really a whole lot to focus on with Kelsey. Yeah, he's the number one guy. If you want safety at the position, draft him. Yep. George Kittle, number two, second most consistent tight-in. My favorite tight-in to launch is George Kittle. He's absolutely.

A dominating 4, 71% good games, 43% great games, always a threat for a monster play. He can do what Gronk used to be able to do. Just take a ball in the middle of the field and turn up field and get loose. I mean, he is an athletic marvel. And he just recently said he's been playing with the torn labrum in the right shoulder since 2018. To make things fair. Why? Yeah, that's an, when it's back in 2018,

And you chose to just ignore it for a couple of years. That's just to even the playing field. I don't think you get to make that excuse anymore because that's just called playing. Like this is who I hail. I just, I've, like, I've got a slightly bad shoulder and I'm playing. I mean, if it's been multiple years, I don't know.

I feel like George Kittle could stitch his own labor back together. Oh, for sure. He is the type where he would pull the bullet out of the wound and set himself up and put the gunpowder and light it on fire. Yeah. You bite the belt? Yeah, he doesn't even do that. Shot of whiskey? He just pops a piece of bubble gum in. Yeah. He's good to go. Look, these two guys are beasts. The question really between those two guys, they're both consistent, both have big blowup games. It's just Travis Kelsey's on the offense. It's going to score more. So.

projecting it forward? Do you expect more big games? And is that worth the higher draft capital? Or would you rather save a round? Do you think they're a round apart? Probably not. I think there may be a half a round apart. If that's the case, I would go Kelsey. Kelsey, more targets, more receptions, more yards, same touchdowns. But like Mike said, positive aggression on his way. And George Kittle played 14 games. So if you look at his per game basis, he's literally tied in fantasy points and receptions per game.

with Kelsey. So if they were a round apart, you're still going Kelsey, Jason? Is that what you said? I am because I think that the touchdowns don't make sense for Kelsey, and I would rather have the higher power offense. But I agree. To each their own. Kittle led tight ends and yards route per run for the second year in a row. He's a valuable weapon. Whether they bring back in Emmanuel Sanders, whether they find another weapon, you know, Debo will be there. But Kittles a beast. We're moving on? Yep.

Darren Waller actually finished the year as the number three overall tight end. He was number eight by consistency rank. How do you look at Darren Waller after this season? What's the truth about Darren Waller? Eight most consistent. So here, let me talk about Darren Waller for a little bit because this is the most confusing tight end. I had to talk to Brooks about him while we were putting his docks together and going through all of our scoring for consistency metrics. Darren Waller.

was either the most consistent tight end you could be, depending on your frame of reference or your, you know, put it this way. I made it to where a bust game is fewer than six points. And with that, he busted four times. If I made the bust metric fewer than seven points, he's never busted. Four times he scored between six and seven points. And so we had to ask ourselves,

And this is in half point scoring. And I think if you're in half point scoring, you felt like those games really let you down. You weren't happy with 6.4 points from, you know, from Darren Waller. And so therefore we included those as busts this year, six or fewer points. That's what dropped him down to number eight. Because in the middle of the season, he had a stretch where he just was super disappointing.

And you thought after the first three games, you got a superstar. And then at the end of the year, you know, again, when Hunter Renfro went down and they needed him more, I think that the truth is, Darren Waller, if you're in a full PPR league, consistent enough, very good in a half point or a standard league, he let you down several times. So, you know, that's the truth about Darren Waller is he is a PPR.

volume dependent guy who surprisingly didn't score a lot of touchdowns, and I would be really surprised if his volume stays at the level that it did this year because I don't think they had many other options, and I expect them to have more weapons next season. Well, we heard they were the number two overall team in terms of target percentage, or number three overall in target percentage to the tight-in position.

Like you said, he was more of the kind of consistency trap that you could be in in the sense that he started so strong. But when you talk about hurt you at the tight-in position, it's not the same to me as the other positions are. Because pivoting at tight-end, streaming the tight-in can be more difficult. Yeah. And it's more like what would you have gotten elsewhere? When Darren Waller finished at, you know, the 17 overall, the 17th overall tight-in in week five.

Well, okay. You didn't get a Darren Waller. We came back with number one the next week. What are you going to do? Because you essentially are stuck in that situation where what other tight end are you going to put in there? You need to bet on the fact that you have a guy that can give you a top in performance. What's crazy for Darren Waller is he only had the three touchdowns. And I looked it up. So you have 28 times a tight end has had 1100 or more yards.

Waller was tied for the lowest touchdowns of anyone in that list. Having only three touchdowns, 1100 yards, simply doesn't make sense. 75% of the times that a tight end is at 1100 or more yards, they've had at least seven touchdowns. So if Darren Waller continues to see the usage that he got, then Darren Waller could be even better. But I'm just not sure that.

the targets are going to keep up. Yeah, you have more question marks with Darren Waller than you do a lot of other tight ends, right? Mark Andrews is going into next year. You know who his quarterback's going to be and what the offense is going to be like. Kelsey, Ertz, those have stability. Waller not only broke out as a fantasy option for the first time in his career this year, but you saw fluctuation based on Hunter Renfro. Now you have a Derek Carr that, who knows, if he's the quarterback, then is he the quarterback the whole year?

that's the kind of thing that sits there. But the athletic profile and the fact that he got paid, I don't understand how Waller isn't somebody that you're taking as a starting tight in next year. He's not going to go away. I don't think he's going to. I think he'll be involved in the office. It's just a matter of have we not even seen his ceiling or was this the most utilized he'll be? That's really the question. And that's going to be dictated by the personnel moves of the Raiders next year. If they go into next season with the roster very similar than it is right now, I'm going to see Darren Waller.

as a top six tight end, someone that I will happily draft, but I expect them to add either in the draft or in free agency. Remember, they had Antonio Brown. They, you know, they, they were connected to O'Dell Beckham rumors before that. They wanted someone in there, and I think they're going to, I think they're going to bring someone in. All right. Mark Andrews comes in a number four, consistency rank of number six. Andrews was funny because there were so many weeks in which he was.

banged up, mispractice, didn't play. He really didn't put up the same kind of numbers against top-in, tight-in defenses, almost 10 fewer points per week. 60% good games, 33% great, had the most deep targets amongst tight-ins this past year, which is 20. That's as many deep targets as Tyreek Hill. Andrews was somebody that put up double-digit touchdowns, one of the few players in the NFL that did that this year.

98 targets and a big play type of guy. When Lamar Jackson was escaping the pocket and looking downfield, Andrews is a big man. And you saw it again in the Pro Bowl. He just likes Mark Andrews and he's a weapon. So he's solid year. Very, very solid year for Mark Anthony. He's just, he's really difficult to gauge moving forward.

Because the talent is undeniable of Mark Andrews, and the same with the connection with Lamar Jackson. But was he not on the field because of the injuries and always being banged up? Because he averaged about 43% of the offensive snaps for the Ravens. And that's, I mean, that's not the type of play that I'm going to bet on a big season coming through for a tight end. I just don't care.

because of the target totals. I don't care about the snap percentage with the way that this team runs. When Mark Andrews is on the field, he's just the go-to receiver. Right. What I'm saying is... Like, I'd take him over Waller next year. And that's fair, because I don't think... I'm not taking a hard stance against Mark Andrews, but this was exactly the type of thing where I was like, dude, I'm so out on Eric Ebron.

coming into this past year because he was never on the field. He had 13 touchdowns of the tight ends who are in the top five for fantasy. Andrews is the only person who had more than six touchdowns. And yeah, it's great. He's great. He has the touchdowns, but we know that touchdowns fluctuate. Next year, if Mark Andrews has...

The same stats, but with five touchdowns. It won't be that surprising of a thing. The big difference to me is the target share, though. Because Eric Ebron did not have a high target share in that option. He did, actually. His target share in 2018 was he had more targets than Andrews had this year. No, I know he had more targets, but they threw the ball more. The target share, the percentage of targets that went his way, I would be shocked if they're the same because Mark Andrews felt like.

a centerpiece of the Ravens offense outside of, you know, when he was injured. Well, and, yeah, and we have the fact that it's, you know, the same offense going into next year, the same quarterback. Andrews is a valuable weapon. But Mike's right in the sense that, you know, five touchdowns next year would not surprise me at all. And then you look at a PPR format. Are you happy with 64 for 8, 50, and 5? No, not for where you're going to draft Mark Andrews next year. Not for what you're going to spend, right? Right.

That would be the challenging part. Do you have the numbers? 15.5% for Ebron, 23% for Andrews. Because they just don't throw. They don't throw very much in Baltimore. Yeah. So that, I guess that's what I'm saying. That's where I see a big difference is that he was central. I mean, 23% market share for a tight end is a phenomenal number. I mean, that's George Kittle.

And so I believe he is too integral to the actual offense. Whereas Ebron was very touchdown dependent and wasn't as integral to the offense between the 20s. He probably won you five weeks. If you had Mark Andrews, which 1, 2, 10, 11, and 16 put up those kind of performances where that tight and differential was impactful for you. So.

You know, you can look at it both ways. You can say maybe the touchdown number regresses, but are the Ravens going to be last in the entire NFL and pass play percentage each and every year with this Lamar Jackson system? No, but the concern for the Ravens is if you get a perfect storm of regression where if Mark Andrews touchdowns come down also because Baltimore is not scoring at the same pace that they did this year, which they scored a lot. They won't score as many touchdowns.

I would put the bet on. They won't score as many touchdowns next year as they did this year. It's just one of those statistical things that happened. They overachieved on a big scale. So again, I'm not saying I'm betting against Mark Andrews, but there are certainly red flags. I want to see, like, where's his ADP? Is the game, well, I can take Travis Kelsey here in the third, or I can get Mark Andrews in the fourth. At that point, I would be completely out on Mark Andrews, unless he's dropping to, like,

the sixth round or so. Yeah, I would take Andrews in the sixth over that third rounder for Kelsey. Yeah, you'd be like mathematically dishonest to assume the same number of touchdowns for Baltimore next year. There should be a lower, a lower number. Yeah, and it doesn't mean Baltimore doesn't win the Super Bowl. Right, right. Go look at the Chiefs. The Chiefs had their super year. Patrick got knocked out. Went from what, 50 touchdowns to 30s. Was it 30?

And then you end up in a situation where, yeah, then not as prolific. The touchdown percentage goes down, but the team is so great. I think we all expect them to be. 26. To be great. 26 passing touchings, yeah. Zach Ertz is number five, number nine in consistency in probably one of the players that we're going to have a hard time with going into 2020. I feel like I'm going to have an easy time with him. I don't want them. Wow. Like I don't want.