The TRUTH About Fantasy RBs in 2018, Part 1

TBD. Listen, even if he's gone, even if he's gone, they want somebody else. They're not going to give everything to Alvin Camara. It's a matter of who do they bring in? Is it somebody that they can use as much as Ingram, be as successful as Ingram? Is it a goal line back? Or do they just bring in another person to spell him? That matters a lot, because if Camer is getting the ball inside the 15, you know, that's the difference between 30 points and 15. Ezekiel Elliott came in at number five on the fantasy finish.

Ranking and number six on our consistency ranks. 93% good games, 7% busts, 40% great games. Listen, league leading total, 304 rushing attempts. I mean, he is the workhorse. He is a workhorse. He was dominant. Yeah, not only is he dominant and a workhorse, but finally, we've talked about this through the year, got involved in the passing game. And that's the thing where...

We've always said, if he were to be used in the passing game, he should be pretty much the number one running back in football because he has the ability. He's got the chops for it. He had it coming out of college, and he showed that this year. But strangely, this season, despite him leading the league in rushing yardage, his rushing touchdowns, which have always been there, were down this year. And I don't expect him to stay down, not with his.

talent, his, you know, style of running. You didn't bring up the stat line, Jay, but it's 77 receptions for 567 yards and three touchdowns on 95 targets. And he may really need that because his league leading total, Kyle looked back all the way to 2000. The 304 rushing attempts by the league leader, that's the lowest total since that date. So you are seeing a decline of...

you know, the 350 runner, the 340 attempt running. You're seeing a huge uptick in the passing game for running backs. But Zeke Elliott, since being in the league, has averaged the most yards per game at the position. So, like, he didn't play a full season, rookie or sophomore year, but in those games, he averaged the most rushing yards. Like we said, he led the league in overall rushing this past year.

But those rushing touchdowns Jason was talking about, his rookie year 15 touchdowns. Sophomore year, seven touchdowns, seven rushing touchdowns in 10 games. And this season, in 15 games, six rushing touchdowns. He just, he got hit with a touchdown variance. I expect that to bounce back. The big question is just, is he going to hit at least 60 receptions next year? Oh, certainly. And I think that he will.

He has as good of a chance as any to be number one. Which makes him elite with the possibility of being a number one running back. Yeah, when we talk about the truth of how did the season play out? Awesome. He had 77 receptions, 95 targets. Those are great numbers.

But look at what happened when the buy week came in week eight and how they used him after that versus beforehand. You saw the Dallas offense change. When did they get Cooper? Right then. That was week nine. Yeah. So when they got Cooper and the offense changed a little bit, that pace from, and that's the whole second half of the season, he was on pace for 104 receptions, not just targets, but actual. He had 11 fewer touchdowns on the ground than Todd Gurley did. Yeah.

That's a variance that should change. He has as good a chance of being number one. Like if you have to handicap, like if Vegas was handicapping number one fantasy rush next year, outside of Gurley, I'd put him at two. I would put Zeke at two. Yeah. Let's talk about a more interesting debate here. We all know Zeke's great. You should draft him. Yeah. James Connor and number six, consistency rank of eight. The reason I'm so excited.

to talk about, so scared to talk about James Connor, who, by the way, zero bus games when he was starting, 77% good, 38% great. You can't argue with that. He was a great surprise for fantasy teams on more fantasy title rosters than just about anybody. My concern with James Connor is the hypothetical question of this. If you put James Connor on the Tennessee Titans, okay? Put them on... Sure.

a different roster. I don't know. Let's say one without Antonio Brown. What is he? Is he a top six, top seven, top eight runner on that roster? Not unless you're putting him on Dallas without Zeke. And that's my point is it's like I don't want to discount what he did in this situation, Juju, Brown, Big Ben, that line, that team, that defense. But I don't want to over-emphasize this year and overdraft him. He's not in my top 10.

which I know he is for both of you guys. So you project a very rosy future for maybe where Pittsburgh goes. I have a little bit of a more bleak outlook on what's happening in Pittsburgh right now, losing Lev, likely losing Antonio, and some of the tumult in the locker room, making me think this is a team that could struggle for a couple years. Yeah, my top 10 ranking when we put out our top 10 and James Connor was in it.

That was before the Antonio Brown information of it looks like he's not going to be there. Now, if Antonio Brown leaves, and that will probably change the entirety of the offense, and I'll adjust my rankings accordingly. But someone could say that he'd be better. And I would say no, because the reason James Connor is great for fantasy, the reason why he had 77% of his games this season as good fantasy games for you is because not of him, but because of...

the team, the line, the offense, the coach. That combination over the last several years has proven it, I mean, the whole running backs don't matter. DeAngelo Williams. DeAngelo Williams was fine. Jalen Samuels, the third string rookie tight end who was drafted was a phenomenal fantasy asset. That's what I'm drafting. Look, Damien Williams isn't good. I know we'll have all sorts of fights and debates over that.

But the role of being the starting running back for the Kansas City Chiefs and Andy Reid is one you want because it's fantastic. That's what I'm drafting here. In fact, when I first made my top 10 list, I didn't put James Connor in there. I said Pittsburgh running back. That's who I put in as, you know, my top guy. Now, if Antonio Brown leaves, that changes things. We have not seen an Antonio Brownless Pittsburgh offense in a while. Mike, what do you think about Connor? Because...

Look, you can have a wide range of opinions based on circumstance. What about the player? What is the truth about him in your mind? I think that he's an excellent, well-rounded player. I mean, they spent what they drafted? A third round pick on a running back when they didn't need to draft a running back. That was a, I mean, that's a best player available situation. And the guy was coming back. He was a cancer survivor. And they spent a third round pick on him. That to me says that the team is fully invested in the player.

Also knowing that the possibility that Levi-on-Bel is going to be leaving the team, I'm with Jason. I want Pittsburgh running back. And James Connor has the skill set. We saw it with the 55 receptions. 55. I'll take care of it. Oh! You didn't get me any window there, Mike. Because I kind of stumbled into it. It was one of those I didn't realize. He's like, I'll handle it. Yeah. Where were you? 55. 55. Come on, Andy.

But if he can do that, then he'll be, that's for the next one. That's for the next one. Thank you. And he didn't, he was slightly worse against top defenses, but not enough that I'm going to be concerned about it. He'll be so interesting in next year's drafts. I will be perfectly happy taking James Connor as a running back one. I agree. If Antonio Brown's on on this team, maybe the offense isn't as powerful. But I think.

that Big Ben will find a way. He, I mean, Pittsburgh has found a way without Antonio Brown being the number one guy with Big Ben. Like it was the Heinz Ward. And then it was Mike Wallace. Juju can step up, in my opinion, and fill most of the offensive gap from Antonio Brown, at least for fantasy purposes. Only Ezekiel Elliott had more games over 180 yards from scrimmage than James Connor did.

Connor had three of those, over 180. Those are weak winning weeks. Honestly, the only concern for me for James Connor is Jalen Samuels. If they go a different route and they think Jalen Samuels, they're going to spell him in far more as a pass catcher. That wouldn't be Mike Tomlin's style, but it's at least one of those check marks in the unknown if you're going in on a first-run pick for James Connor. Melvin Gordon came in at number seven, but his consistency ranking, number three.

No bus, 92% good, 42% great. He was fantastic. Only Tide Gurley has more total touchdowns over the last three seasons than Melvin Gordon, who has 38 over that time. He's just unbelievable. Here's the truth. You want the truth on Melvin Gordon? If he's healthy and active, he's one of the best three running backs in fantasy football, what you have to worry about is his health. The healthy and active part? Yes, the healthy and active part because.

When he's a healthy inactive, that's even worse. That's not good. You don't want to be a healthy scratch. But Melvin Gordon has just been unbelievable, but he hasn't been able to play 16. He hasn't been able to stay healthy. And so you have to say, is this a problem with him? Is he not able to take that kind of load that he's been given? Or is it just, look.

Everybody gets injured from time to time. This is when Melvin Gordon's got injured. We bring it up all the time. Frank Gore had the biggest injury label early in his career imaginable, and then he went and played 7,000 staff straight without injury. It's one thing to consider the injuries anomalous. It's another thing to ask the question of whether Los Angeles, the coaching staff, if they consider them anomalous. Because if they're not,

then they need to spell him. They need to give him more rest. He doesn't, he can't be the same workload guy. Right. The first six weeks, 23, 27, 15, 27, 20, 34. He's a beast. Balled out, but then he went down. And so that's the question that I have, the only question I have. Now, I think Los Angeles has another peak season in them with Philip Rivers, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Melvin Gordon, a great defense, a good old line.

I think you're going to see a little repeat next year. That's my projection for this team. So the truth about Gordon, put him out there. Yeah, I want Gordon. He was my number two running back when I made my initial rankings because I don't think people realize how dominant he was when he was in. They're so recency biased by the injuries and the lull at the very end of the season that they don't realize, Mike, you had him this season. You experienced the difference that he made over.

You know, you were given trade offers of like Joe Mixin and other good running backs that just sounds really good, but then you look at what an advantage he gave you. For the first part of the season, until the weird inactive over in the London game, and then you saw a little bit of a downtick. But he was a Todd Gurley level advantage for your fantasy football team. What would be interesting for Melvin Gordon over this off season, do they extend him?

that's what I want to see. Are the Chargers committed to Melvin Gordon? Like I'm one of those racks? Like trying to make him taller? You need to stretch more. That's your problem. He's in his fifth year option. Do they extend him? Or do they, are they going to take that hard line levy on Bell approach that says, we've worn you out, and we don't think you're going to be as valuable in those next few years? Sucks to be a running back. Do not become a running back in the NFL.

I'm not going to now. That's the only reason? That's my only reason. I was pondering. Believe it or not, number eight is the name you probably didn't expect. But James White was the number eight running back in half point per reception leagues. This is the James White, who in week one of the NFL playoffs just put up a 15 reception game because out of nowhere, James White becomes the center of the offense.

from time to time. Week 5. Has no one broken down game film of the Patriots in the playoffs? They're going to throw the ball to James White. Well, just look at what he did against Kansas City this last week. Oh, what a day. It was such a day. It was a game. Well, the snow-ish conditions? Oh, yeah. It was cold. The lightish, not snow, but snowing. I mean, it varied throughout the game. Look, when he was on the field, he did some things. Yeah. Listen.

James White, 16 games. It's very rare that a player would finish number eight with 94 rushing attempts at the running back position. But that's what James White did because he had 87 receptions, 751 receiving yards, and more than that, a total of 12 touchdowns, seven through the air, five on the ground. That's the really surprising part. And while they, while he is used.