Fantasy Football 2018 - Early WR Rankings Part 1

and Michael Thomas are tied at number five in our consensus rankings. I have AJ Green at seven, love AJ Green, Jason and Mike have him at six. Last year was a difficult year. Bad year. As far as AJ Green terms, but for a guy who finishes 75 receptions, almost 11, 100 yards, and 8 touchdowns, somehow it was a bad year. This was the worst catch percentage of his career. He went...

These are his past four years in terms of catch percentage. 59, 65, 66, down to 52.4. Yards per game, 80, 81, 96, down to 67. And he still finishes the wide receiver 11. Here's the exciting thing about AJ Green. We put on our forums, there was a very heated discussion about AJ Green or Tyreek Hill. And while it's decently even

evenly split decently evenly is bad phrasing but great phrasing based on my consistency consensus thing going on today those who picked tyreek hill are firing the most poisonous venom at a j green that you can imagine they are furious with the guy that finished at wide receiver 11 over a thousand yards and eight touchdowns but they are furious so want for a j green's adp to be where it should not be

That is fair. I look at him now, though, and I feel like I've made excuses for A.J. Green to be deserving of a top five-tier consideration that maybe I'm not going to give him anymore. And that's why I have him at seven, because...

You have to go to 2012 and 2013 to get a top five finish from him. Yes, there's all the reasons in the world. Okay, I played 13 games and then I played 10 games. Two years ago, he was just... He was number 7, though. He was, right, but what did he play 10 games? No, that was a 16 game season. I'm trying to... He played 13 games two years ago. That's what I mean. But he finished 34th.

But in those games, he was absolutely crushing people. And this is the argument we made last year. Like I said, 96 yards a game. I'm not disrespecting AJ Green. Targeted the ninth highest total in the league. I think there were some mental things going on last year where that team was, it was like a storm cloud was over it, right? There was offensive line issues. There were.

Andy Dalton issues. There was Jaylon Ramsey issues. There was all sorts of issues on that team and he still put up a wide receiver 11. It's not a disrespecting, but if you ask me about a tear break, I want those first four guys we just mentioned. I want them over to A.J. Green. I'm not going to, like last year in the draft, I would have looked at it like, give me the better value of Julio or A.J. Green. I don't look at it that way this year. And I just, and I love A.J. Green, but I didn't like what I saw. The team hasn't been good. You still have Marvin Lewis.

He's more of the guaranteed 8 to 12 to me than he is the guaranteed top 5 anymore because he hasn't done it since 2013. But that upside is there. Agreed. Agreed. Let's talk about Michael Thomas, the tie at number 5 here on our rankings. Mike, you have them the lowest. I do. You have my number 9. So let's start with that because he is a perplexing player. Very much so. Because did he meet expectations or did he not? He finished at wide receiver 6.

Yeah, it's, and these are initial rankings, so nine is, maybe that's a little bit too low. As Michael Thomas improved his, for, I want everyone to think back, you know, think back of last year of Michael Thomas, where I had, I felt like I had to just keep supporting and keep saying, guys, Michael Thomas is having a fine year. But for fantasy purposes, people just were not.

They were not feeling Michael Thomas. More receptions, more yards, the same yards per catch. But his touchdowns, he pulled at Dolly Parton. Yeah. He went from 9 to 5 to 5. I planned that joke. You want to go 5 to 9. Did you plan that joke? It's still good. It's still good. You don't want to say that. I'm a transparent man. All right. But, and here's the thing. He had fewer than eight targets in a game two times. Well, who else are you can throw to there?

He's their only guy. Michael Thomas, I'm just, this is me venting over last year of having to defend him every single week. Does he feel like a number one though? I think he is. Oh, there you go. Because you're also, we talked about. I do too. I have him a five. The touchdowns from going down from nine to five, but that touchdown positive regression, whatever the term is that you want to use. Dolly Parton up on the pristine auction? Wait, the actual person?

No. She's not doing much. She does how it just comes and stands in the corner. Do they ship her in a box? Do you get the JSA certification or do you get a fake Dolly Parton that pops out? You don't get a fake one at pristine auction. No. 100% JSA certified Dolly Parton. I'm not sure that's the endorsement they wanted. Yeah, Michael Thomas. I'm at five, obviously. You buy into.

in offense that's going to score a ton of touchdowns. And last year, we broke down these numbers earlier in the offseason. The proportion of rushing touchdowns, the passing touchdowns, was strange last year in New Orleans. They were great, but that number's probably not going to happen again. I would agree. Which means he might catch more than five. It also means nine is too low for how I feel in my heart about Michael Thomas. Okay. Pitter-patter. Pitter-patter. Mike Evans, he finished

As the wide receiver 17 last year, that is a bust for what you expected of Mike Evans. Certainly is. He was number two overall in 2016. Now, he's durable. He's going to play, and he should be and will be the number one target for James Swinson. The problem was you got zero great games for Mike Evans. No monstrous explosions. 71 for 1,000 yards and 5. You look at that, and I think in our minds we say Mike Evans, this otherworldly talent. He's better than a Brandon Cook.

Well, the numbers didn't bear it out last year. Only 135 targets. I believe he was in the 170 range the year before. We anticipated a drop in targets. I don't think I thought it would get down to the 130 range when you compare it to a guy like, I don't know, anybody above him in these rankings, 149 targets? That's about where I would have had him, 150. And do you think back to the stat I just gave about 10 zone targets with Thielen, Mike Evans, and Julio Jones, because you see the ping pong ball.

going back and forth where it was rookie year, five targets turned into four touchdowns, then it was 10 targets turned into two touchdowns, then it was seven targets turned into five. And then last year, nine targets in the 10 zone, one touchdown out of those targets. If we had the more you know drop, I would hit it here because this is a good illustration. By the way, if these trends continue. Hey! By the way, Mike, give us a more you know drop.

on your guitar. I want a riff version. I want a classic rock more you know. Okay. And it would illuminate moments like this, Mike, where I bring to mind the fact that when you talk about projecting players, when we go and we look at players and how you expect them to stay consistent year to year, touchdowns are not what you're wanting to count on. You cannot bank on them. You cannot bank on touchdowns. I don't care who you are. We've seen it affect every player.

You have a player like Michael Thomas who has an absolutely fabulous year and loses four touchdowns off his total and the perception. And people hated him. And the perception is completely off. Now, he started slower too. But that's the hard to predict aspect. That's why you look at workload, targets, receptions. What's the consistency in the offense? What's the consistency in the quarterback? These are the things that you can bank on. You're bringing back James Winston.

Mike Evans should be good to be a wide receiver 1 again. He wasn't last year. I think he's pretty safe as the wide receiver 1. But do I think he's going to be number 2 again? No, I don't really think that's going to happen. He's never had fewer than 1,000 receiving yards on his season in his entire career. Mike Evans is fine. Okay. Keenan Allen, coming in at number 8. Welcome back. Yeah. Let's go.

You were going to get a jersey, but then you just tattooed one on your body. Keenan Allen is Mike's number five overall, 102 receptions, 1,393 yards, 6 touchdowns, 159 targets, and he started slow. Yes, very slow. The wide receiver 3. Still may be the most disrespected player at the wide receiver position heading into this year? It's very possible because, in my opinion,

Keenan Allen is an elite wide receiver in the NFL. I know he's not the same type. He's not as gifted athletically as Julio Jones or Otto Beckham, but he is an elite wide receiver. Well, maybe he is getting the respect because right now he's going ahead of AJ Green and Mike Evans and drafts. That's fine by me. Just behind the big boys, Brown, Hopkins, Beckham, Thomas, and Julio. But speaking of the slow start, weeks one through 10.

In average points, he was actually the wide receiver 34 in points per game. Weeks 1 through 10. Goodness gracious. And then after that, he became the wide receiver 2 in points per game. Wide receiver 1 overall when you add up all the points. They just absolutely started to feed him. To feed him. And what was...

What was great about this, his yards per reception jumped back up to what closer to his rookie year. If you remember his rookie year, he had 14.7 yards per reception. He was a big play touchdown type of guy. And then everything turned into he was going to paper cut you to death with a thousand targets. And so people said, ah, well, he's just, it's like a, oh, he's Jarvis Landry type of a situation, which it's fine for fantasy, but hey, he's not an elite guy.

It jumps back up to 13.7 yards per reception last year. I believe more in the second half, Keenan Allen, that the Chargers said, this is going to lead us and this can lead our offense in a very positive way. So that's how, that's the Keenan Allen I'm buying into. Clearly, if you have him all the way up at number five, you hope he could spread the production out a little bit more even next year.

I don't think you're going to move too far from the paper cuts you to death mindset with Philip Rivers behind center. I still think that's what works for them. 102 receptions. It works for fantasy owners too. Yeah. Six touchdowns. I can live with that if you're going to put up 159 targets. Let's talk about number nine. And maybe this is the player that has the biggest opportunity to be in that top three consideration. Top five. Devante Adams.

Devante Adams is number nine in our rankings right now, finished at wide receiver 14 last year despite not having Aaron Rogers for the greater part of the year, and despite playing only 14 games. What is the real opportunity here? No, Jordy. Has to be the lead dog, going to see lead dog coverage? Yes. But going to be forced fed by the best quarterback in football. Yeah, Devante Adams took a step. Devante Adams is exactly why.

especially for fantasy football players. And I'm looking in the mirror saying this myself. Don't ride a wide receiver off after two years. Because year two, when he had that opportunity with Jordy Nelson out, he looked bad. It was done. Devante Adams was going to be a bust. And then he has a sensational third and the fourth year. Last year with Rogers, here's his pace in the six games. I apologize, with Rogers.

a pace of 75 receptions, just over 900 yards and 13 touchdowns. Here's the other part of that. He didn't play full season with Rogers, but he still finished 74 receptions, 885 yards and 10 touchdowns. So he finished nearly identical to the pace he was putting up with Rogers, except he was doing that with Brett Hundley. Yeah, but this is the cursory tale of touchdown dependency.

I was going to say, never broke 1,000 yards, never broken 75 total receptions. But if anyone is considered an exception to the rule of touchdowns, is Green Bay's number one wide receiver because Aaron Rogers is a lock for 30 plus touchdowns, where most quarterbacks, if they break 30, you're very happy about it. That's the argument that gets me with Adams every time. Every time I want to doubt him, every time I want to move him down a tear.

Somebody walks along and his name is Mike and he will say, well, Rogers is going to throw for 35 touchdowns. Break them up. Show me where they go. And I can't do it without giving double digits to Devante Adams. Yes. I can't do it without giving like 15 to Devonte Adams. At this point? 15 to him and 15 to Graham. I mean, no, I mean, you're right. And then if you do have the consistency, look, he's not a heavy yardage guy. He's not a monstrous play guy.